CCL Share Dilution

[Billish]

As a matter of interest, the last comnents on this thread are worth reading, not only to those of us who own shares, but also to those thinking about future bookings.

CCL are being sucked into a whirlpool of debt.

https://boards.cruisecritic.co.uk/topic/2862809-heres-a-scarey-headline-for-ccl-stockholders-carnival-stock-could-fall-to-0-in-a-worst-case-scenario/page/10/#comment-63607341

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Billish

[Yorkypete]

10 hours ago, Billish said:

As a matter of interest, the last comnents on this thread are worth reading, not only to those of us who own shares, but also to those thinking about future bookings.

CCL are being sucked into a whirlpool of debt.

https://boards.cruisecritic.co.uk/topic/2862809-heres-a-scarey-headline-for-ccl-stockholders-carnival-stock-could-fall-to-0-in-a-worst-case-scenario/page/10/#comment-63607341

 

So it looks as though Carnival could be in big trouble and it is only getting worse?

[yorkshirephil]

[davecttr]

No point in worrying about it, especially if you only have the 100 shares. There are more important things to worry about nowadays.

 

I the company goes bust we will lose any money that P&O have and you can't do anything about that except perhaps not giving them any more money in the first place.

[tring]

35 minutes ago, davecttr said:

No point in worrying about it, especially if you only have the 100 shares. There are more important things to worry about nowadays.

 

I the company goes bust we will lose any money that P&O have and you can't do anything about that except perhaps not giving them any more money in the first place.

 

True a lot of us could loose share money, but 100 shares is not a big loss, considering people who could not stand that loss are highly unlikely to have purchased them to begin with.

 

Any money for deposits and balance payments though should surely be covered by CC or ABTA/ATOL protections.  However that only covers bookings made in the UK (and should be protections in continental Europe because of the Package Travel Regulations, which require those protections, are EU wide).  Though will be a big loss to those organisations. 

 

Many US and Australian people lost a lot of cash when CMV went down though, as they do not have the good protections we do.  Hence scares will make those people far less likely to make fresh bookings or pay balances towards cruises, which in itself could have a further effect.

 

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by tring

[Yorkypete]

30 minutes ago, tring said:

 

True a lot of us could loose share money, but 100 shares is not a big loss, considering people who could not stand that loss are highly unlikely to have purchased them to begin with.

 

Any money for deposits and balance payments though should surely be covered by CC or ABTA/ATOL protections.  However that only covers bookings made in the UK (and should be protections in continental Europe because of the Package Travel Regulations, which require those protections, are EU wide).  Though will be a big loss to those organisations. 

 

Many US and Australian people lost a lot of cash when CMV went down though, as they do not have the good protections we do.  Hence scares will make those people far less likely to make fresh bookings or pay balances towards cruises, which in itself could have a further effect.

 

 

We have a cruise booked for Sept on Britannia to the Baltic. We are now cancelling a more expensive cruise on Iona for March due to the two things, Carnival being in deep s--- and the rapid spread of covid once more. We cannot afford to lose the money, simple as that.

[Gimpfacemctavish]

Nothing is 100% secure in this world at the present time. But at the same time there are many more companies out there who are at a bigger risk than carnival of bankruptcy. 
Carnival has a 55% chance of Bankruptcy. Will this make me sell my shares and cancel all my future cruise bookings? No.

Royal Caribbean and Norwegian cruise lines have a similar risk of going bankrupt, this is the state of the industry at present and will not change anytime soon.

 

[Yorkypete]

1 hour ago, Gimpfacemctavish said:

Nothing is 100% secure in this world at the present time. But at the same time there are many more companies out there who are at a bigger risk than carnival of bankruptcy. 
Carnival has a 55% chance of Bankruptcy. Will this make me sell my shares and cancel all my future cruise bookings? No.

Royal Caribbean and Norwegian cruise lines have a similar risk of going bankrupt, this is the state of the industry at present and will not change anytime soon.

 

Cruise companies have a massive problem at present. If they introduce restrictions and keep a reasonable number of empty cabins for isolation they lose money. If they release all isolation cabins then anyone who catches it (and it will spread quicker) will have to isolate in their own cabins. They cannot go on excursions, spend money on board etc so the company will lose money and some people will receive refunds and maybe not book again. Either way a company such as Carnival, with debts of over £28 billion will be in trouble.They have to have full ships and virtually ignore covid which could become very dangerous.

[Bazrat]

Really cheerful comment thread this is, are we going to cancel our TA this year no, will we cancel both our cruises next year on the off chance they go  bust no, I have a darn sight more things happening in my life to worry about than losing some money.

[Windsurfboy]

I presume all in the UK paid by credit card. If cruise is under £30,000 covered by section 25, so no worry about getting money back keep on cruising. If you didn't pay by credit card then get one, but as Martin Lewis says pay it off in full.

 

If cruise more than £30,000, presume you should be in a good financial position to spend that much on holiday. 

[tring]

6 minutes ago, Windsurfboy said:

I presume all in the UK paid by credit card. If cruise is under £30,000 covered by section 25, so no worry about getting money back keep on cruising. If you didn't pay by credit card then get one, but as Martin Lewis says pay it off in full.

 

If cruise more than £30,000, presume you should be in a good financial position to spend that much on holiday. 

 

ABTA or ATOL pay up in the case of a company going bust if you do not pay be CC, so no difference.  Both banks and ATOL/ABTA payments all need a bit of applying for and could take about three months to cough up though.  It is just the shareholders who could loose out. 

 

That is not the point IMO, though could be less holiday choice/competition if companies do fold.

 

 

[Yorkypete]

36 minutes ago, tring said:

 

ABTA or ATOL pay up in the case of a company going bust if you do not pay be CC, so no difference.  Both banks and ATOL/ABTA payments all need a bit of applying for and could take about three months to cough up though.  It is just the shareholders who could loose out. 

 

That is not the point IMO, though could be less holiday choice/competition if companies do fold.

 

 

I think in some ways the cruise companies will be responsible for their own downfall. They are building bigger and bigger vessels which will have access to less and less ports thus affecting takings. As they get bigger they are harder to run and more expensive to maintain. Iona and Arvia are no doubt beautiful ships but they will not be able to do the Norwegian cruises, limiting them to only a few areas and even these will shrink with the competition. Imagine smaller ports trying to cope with three ships the size of Iona!. Much as though I liked Iona I am really looking forward to Britannia in September as she is more my size.

[Billish]

15 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

As they get bigger they are harder to run and more expensive to maintain.

Cruise economics 101 - the bigger the ship,  the greater the profit! 

[Happy afloat]

And, generally, the cheaper the cost of the holiday, possibly resulting in greater uptake. Making cruising more popular. Creating the need for more ships.

[Megabear2]

The original thread quoted also had opposing opinions that CCL will be fine.  To hell with the doomsayers, looking for more opportunities to book as I write!  

[Eglesbrech]

51 minutes ago, Billish said:

Cruise economics 101 - the bigger the ship,  the greater the profit! 

Sounds like one of the Ferengi rules of acquisition.🖖

[Billish]

3 hours ago, Eglesbrech said:

Sounds like one of the Ferengi rules of acquisition.🖖

I had to look that up !

Excellent !

[daiB]

5 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

I think in some ways the cruise companies will be responsible for their own downfall. They are building bigger and bigger vessels which will have access to less and less ports thus affecting takings. As they get bigger they are harder to run and more expensive to maintain. Iona and Arvia are no doubt beautiful ships but they will not be able to do the Norwegian cruises, limiting them to only a few areas and even these will shrink with the competition. Imagine smaller ports trying to cope with three ships the size of Iona!. Much as though I liked Iona I am really looking forward to Britannia in September as she is more my size.

Your argument holds less water when Iona is leaving today with greater numbers than before. I am amazed by the numbers of people going on Iona for these repeat 7 day cruises. I could not see it working for a whole summer season. But it is and this is with all reported problems of staffing. I am sure the problems of the airlines is helping all cruise lines and the chaos art Dover this weekend will help as well.

[Yorkypete]

5 hours ago, Billish said:

Cruise economics 101 - the bigger the ship,  the greater the profit! 

Cruise economics 102..the bigger the ship the less ports will accommodate them.                                       Cruise economics 103 the bigger the ship the more cases of covid  therefor the less amount spent.

[Billish]

4 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

Cruise economics 102..the bigger the ship the less ports will accommodate them.                                       Cruise economics 103 the bigger the ship the more cases of covid  therefor the less amount spent.

Too late to debate this now, but there are more than sufficient ports in Europe that can accomodate 6000+ pax ships,  so that is not an issue (and, lets face it, the ship is the destination not the ports). The new millenium cruiser does not really care about the itinerary - they want to be entertained  and fed and watered,  which is where the profit is.

And, pro rata Covid cases are the same, regardless of the size of the ship.

Feel free to comment on roi with regard to capex and anticipated depreciation at your leisure. 

 

[davecttr]

8 hours ago, Billish said:

Too late to debate this now, but there are more than sufficient ports in Europe that can accomodate 6000+ pax ships,  so that is not an issue (and, lets face it, the ship is the destination not the ports). The new millenium cruiser does not really care about the itinerary - they want to be entertained  and fed and watered,  which is where the profit is.

And, pro rata Covid cases are the same, regardless of the size of the ship.

Feel free to comment on roi with regard to capex and anticipated depreciation at your leisure. 

 

If the ship is the destination we should treat it like a package holiday. You go and a number of the facilities and entertainments are closed for 'operational' reasons. The holiday is not as advertised so you should get compensation.

[zap99]

14 hours ago, Megabear2 said:

The original thread quoted also had opposing opinions that CCL will be fine.  To hell with the doomsayers, looking for more opportunities to book as I write!  

All the doomsayers have been remarkably silent on Monkey pox haven't they?. All that debt and nobody has a protocol for monkeypox. Once all this year's cruises are complete, I will see who has most debt before booking any more. Another thing to worry about. I think staying locked up at home may best after all.

[zap99]

9 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

Cruise economics 102..the bigger the ship the less ports will accommodate them.                                       Cruise economics 103 the bigger the ship the more cases of covid  therefor the less amount spent.

Cruise economics 104. Jon Snow knows........🤔

[Ranchi]

John Snow knew a bit about disease transmission😉

[zap99]

On 7/22/2022 at 3:14 PM, Yorkypete said:

Cruise companies have a massive problem at present. If they introduce restrictions and keep a reasonable number of empty cabins for isolation they lose money. If they release all isolation cabins then anyone who catches it (and it will spread quicker) will have to isolate in their own cabins. They cannot go on excursions, spend money on board etc so the company will lose money and some people will receive refunds and maybe not book again. Either way a company such as Carnival, with debts of over £28 billion will be in trouble.They have to have full ships and virtually ignore covid which could become very dangerous.

Cruise economics 106 .Carnival don't have a problem with debt. Now the folks who lent them 28bn. THEY may have a problem 🤣