NCL first cruise line to remove ALL Vaccine Requirements!!

[RichYak]

9 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

That is interesting. I suspect that initially there will be a large influx of unvaccinated cruisers with FCC to spend (or unvaccinated cruisers who have been itching to cruise). After a year or so, that pent up demand should ease.

Quick google searches tell me 3 things:

 

1. The average age of NCL passengers is 52.2 yrs old

2. The Pct of the US population aged 50-64 yrs old that is fully vaccinated is 82.1%

3. The pct of the overall US population that is fully vaccinated is 67.2%

 

The law of averages will keep the vaccinated percentage basically where it is now and way higher than the general US public without any requirement.

Edited August 8, 2022 by RichYak

[BermudaBound2014]

15 minutes ago, RichYak said:

Quick google searches tell me 3 things:

 

1. The average age of NCL passengers is 52.2 yrs old

2. The Pct of the US population aged 50-64 yrs old that is fully vaccinated is 82.1%

3. The pct of the US population overall is 67.2%

 

The law of averages will keep the vaccinated percentage basically where it is now and way higher than the general US public without any requirement.

 

I get what you are saying, but how many of those have unvaccinated kids over 11?

 

Up until today, NCL required 100%  vaccinated over 11. I think there will be enough unvaccinated passengers over the age of 11 who will now book a cruise. I have four members of my immediate circle that are booking today. Niece/nephew with their kids. They are in their 30's and early 40's. 

Edited August 8, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[dltvermont]

Personally Id rather have cruise lines remove the testing requirement. Thats seemed to be the most stressful thing in post-pandemic cruising. Get down to 2-3 days before your cruise, ready to fly to port for many, and hope the test is negative.

[ontheweb]

18 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Any chance you have stock in Pfizer 😉 🙂 

 

 

Or Moderna?

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, dltvermont said:

Personally Id rather have cruise lines remove the testing requirement. Thats seemed to be the most stressful thing in post-pandemic cruising. Get down to 2-3 days before your cruise, ready to fly to port for many, and hope the test is negative.

 

Yes, testing was very stressful.

 

However; cruise lines are still BLEEDING cash. They need all the bodies onboard they can get. This was a business move as much as anything else.

[Crazy planning mom]

I do agree that the percentage of cruisers vaccinated is probably higher than the general population and not just because of demographics.  I know people who got vaccinated just so they could cruise.  Bermudabound points out that there alot of unvaccinated kids.  So, perhaps during the summer and school breaks, the vax percentage will be lower.

[njhorseman]

9 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Yes, testing was very stressful.

 

However; cruise lines are still BLEEDING cash. They need all the bodies onboard they can get. This was a business move as much as anything else.

It's 100% a business move.

[Oxo]

[Marine Mom]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

NCL is leading the entire industry in removing vaccine requirements for cruisers!!

 

This is huge news. MUCH bigger than just removing pre-testing (although the unvaccinated will need still to be tested for the time being, this too shall pass). Since only 67% of the United States is vaccinated, this move give NCL a real competitive edge in the industry. The other cruise lines will follow in removing their vaccine requirements too, but for the time being NCL is the only line to allow 100% unvaccinated. 

 

 

 

Of course, passengers will still need to follow the rules of the foreign ports they visit. I believe Spain is the only port in the EU with any covid protocols. I also believe Canada and Bermuda still require vaccination and testing. Rumor has it Grand Caymen has removed all covid protocols but I haven't been able to confirm that yet.

 

I know this sentiment won't be shared by all, but IMO What a glorious day for NCL!! 

 

https://www.ncl.com/sail-safe

I’m thrilled. This is great news!!!!

[kjquilts]

Here is NCL's Travel Requirements by Country referenced in their new Sail Safe policy

 

https://www.ncl.com/travel-requirements-by-country

 

Our next two cruises with NCL are April 2023.  Gem transatlantic has several Spanish ports and the following Gem med cruises has Corfu, Greece scheduled.  Both of those countries are included on the list so I'll be watching with interest.   I doubt NCL would drop all the Spanish ports but I could see them dropping Corfu if nothing changes.  

 

We are fully vaccinated and double boosted and will continue to follow vaccination recommendations.  I know from personal experience that won't prevent one from getting Covid but my case was very mild (exhaustion and scratchy throat).

 

My concern about having non vaccinated fellow cruisers especially on longer or back to back cruises is with the Contact Tracing if positive case of Covid occurs and what does NCL consider close contact.  Towards the bottom of the Sail Safe page there is a section titled Thorough & Effective Mobilization Plan in Event of Outbreak MOBILIZATION & RESPONSE followed by a FAQ section.

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by kjquilts

[UKstages]

1 hour ago, RichYak said:

Cruise lines know their demographics and, based on those demographics, can predict fairly accurately the percentage of passengers that are vaccinated. IMO, the demographics of cruisers have a far higher percentage vaccinated than the general public. 

 

i floated this very concept in a rather contentious thread here on this topic a few months ago and was harshly rebuked. i still think it's correct. requiring vaccinations didn't eat into the pool of potential cruising customers because those most likely to cruise are already vaccinated. and every cruise line has the stats and the demographics on their customer base. but, in general, for all cruise lines, with the possible exception of carnival, those with a propensity to cruise are most likely already vaccinated.

 

any cruise line removing vaccination requirements has to look closely at what revenue they might get from unvaxxed (and unlikely cruisers) versus how much they will alienate their core customers, and how much revenue they might lose from them... some of whom will no doubt be upset that the policy has been rescinded. 

 

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

That is interesting. I suspect that initially there will be a large influx of unvaccinated cruisers with FCC to spend (or unvaccinated cruisers who have been itching to cruise). After a year or so, that pent up demand should ease.

 

this is counterintuitive. 

 

if you buy into the argument that @RichYak and I are making (and you didn't a couple of months ago when i first made it), there is no large number of unvaxxed customers with FCC... because the demographics indicate that those most likely to cruise (before the onset of the pandemic) are also the most likely to have been vaxxed once vaccines became available.

 

similarly, there is not a large number of "unvaccinated cruisers who have been itching to cruise." that is a contradiction in terms. there are a few, to be sure. does it constitute a "competitive advantage," as you believe? i certainly don't think so. the number is likely relatively small. and advertsing "no vaccine required" is unlikely to convince those without a propensity to cruise to come onboard. 

 

also, if guests are still "itching" at the time of embarkation, that could be a symptom of illness and they should probably not be cruising at all.

 

just sayin'.

Edited August 8, 2022 by UKstages

[latebloomer56]

1 hour ago, cruiserbear55 said:

I take it to mean if you’re 11 and under, no vaccines or testing required. If you are 12 or older, in order not to have to take a Covid test, you’ll have to show proof of vaccination. Without proof, you will have to show a negative Covid test. And they have changed the testing time requirements. Currently, it is two days for antigen, and three days for pcr. After 9/2, it will be up to three days before embark for both tests.Now,if only Bermuda would lift their requirement….

 

.

Hope Bermuda lifts testing required.

So if we go on New England cruise just VAX cards :).

[latebloomer56]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

When is your trip? Covid protocols are very fluid and are changing rapidly.  Although, i suspect Bermuda will be one of the last places to open up entirely because they aren't reliant on cruise revenue.

 

I also suspect NCL will clear up some of the poor language on the site tomorrow. They have the second quarter earnings call to the SEC and interviews will follow. I think we will have clarity tomorrow on some of the niggles in the update.

 

looking at Dec. but booked in April.

[cruiserbear55]

2 minutes ago, latebloomer56 said:

Hope Bermuda lifts testing required.

So if we go on New England cruise just VAX cards :).

Our next cruise to Bermuda is the last week of October. I doubt they will be lifted by then. But with pressure from the cruise lines, who knows?

[Nolefan95]

2 hours ago, vacation44 said:

As always, thank you for your updates on this subject and I do agree with you, it is glorious day for NCL.   

 

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by Nolefan95

[ChiefMateJRK]

2 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

Yes, something more descriptive might have helped for the other topic.  But anyway this is CC, so why have just one thread on a subject when you can have two or more?  😉

This is one topic that I welcome as many threads as may show up.  It's all just fine music to my ears and I really can't get enough of it at this point.

[cruisequeen4ever]

Excellent news for the industry! I agree that the other cruise lines will follow in suit. 

[cruiseny4life]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

However; this does help to explain why NCL postponed the release of their second quarterlies from last week to tomorrow. We speculated it would be to announce removal of pre-testing but this is MUCH bigger. You can bet your socks that FDR will be using this as a selling point at the press release.

 

NCL using this conversation to cover up the terrible financials coming out tomorrow? That's my thought...I don't really care about the testing or vaccination. Keep it the same, change it, drop it - I'm still going to go on/book a cruise. 

 

Perhaps I'll be eating my words tomorrow and we'll have positive revenue statements. Wouldn't that great news...but I'm a realist. 🙂 

[RichYak]

36 minutes ago, UKstages said:

i still think it's correct. requiring vaccinations didn't eat into the pool of potential cruising customers because those most likely to cruise are already vaccinated.

I agree with everything you posted earlier except this. Targeting 100% vaccinated absolutely ate into the pool of cruising customers. That's a minimum 20% reduction in your customer base. Much more when you consider entire familes/groups that wouldn't sail because only one of them wasn't vaxxed. Their vacation dollars went elsewhere. Now that entire group can return to cruising barely putting a dent in the overall unvaxxed percentage.

[ruff]

I too am confused. The press release indicates that vaccinated guests over the age of 12 must get an antigen test or NAAT (PCR) test within 2 days of boarding, if leaving from a U.S. port. We are sailing on the Pride out of Hawaii. Later, in the message, it indicates that vaccinated guests over the age of 12 can get the antigen tests 2 days prior to sailing OR a PCR (NAAT) test 3 days before sailing. Which is it?

[ByThePond]

52 minutes ago, latebloomer56 said:

Hope Bermuda lifts testing required.

So if we go on New England cruise just VAX cards :).

If your New England cruise goes to Canada, vaccination and pre-testing and ArriveCAN is still required. Check the country-specific requirements. 

[RichYak]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I get what you are saying, but how many of those have unvaccinated kids over 11?

 

Up until today, NCL required 100%  vaccinated over 11. I think there will be enough unvaccinated passengers over the age of 11 who will now book a cruise. I have four members of my immediate circle that are booking today. Niece/nephew with their kids. They are in their 30's and early 40's. 

The law of averages will prevail. During the summer months with more kids, the unvaxxed % may be higher. During the winter months with no kids, much lower.

 

Bottom line, any target is meaningless. As more people are educated and realize that the unvaccinated are no more of a danger to them than vaccinated passengers, it will no longer matter.

[Level six]

It will end up being a big mess when one country requires vaccination and just one passenger onboard isn't, then the whole ship will not be allowed to dock.

 

You might say, "they won't let them onboard if not vaccinated".  But I was on an NCL cruise to India where Everyone was required to have a Visa for India.  It was stated on pre cruise emails that NO ONE would be allowed on the ship if they did not have a visa.  Well, when we port in India, about 40 people did not have a visa and we were almost not allowed to port.  I played trivia with one who didn't and she said, "she didn't think it applied to her".  Now, if we had missed India due to this kind of thinking.......what will happen when someone who is not vaccinated is onboard?  The whole ship will be punished because of one or more people who say it didn't apply to them?   

 

I think they need to wait to see what all the ports require.  If some ports will still continue to require vaccine/testing, then NCL should rethink either requiring vaccination of visiting those ports.  

[UKstages]

26 minutes ago, RichYak said:

I agree with everything you posted earlier except this. Targeting 100% vaccinated absolutely ate into the pool of cruising customers. That's a minimum 20% reduction in your customer base. Much more when you consider entire familes/groups that wouldn't sail because only one of them wasn't vaxxed. Their vacation dollars went elsewhere. Now that entire group can return to cruising barely putting a dent in the overall unvaxxed percentage.

 

where are you getting the "minimum 20%" figure? does it arbitrarily come from a subset of the unvaxxed population? the percentage of those unvaxxed who have a propensity to cruise is likely very small. i had thought that was the main point of your earlier post. it certainly was of mine.

 

your point about families was true for as long as children were prohibited from getting vaccines. that is no longer true. (the reason those children weren't vaccinated was not because of a choice their parents made, but because vaccines were not possible for children. those families were already part of the population of likely cruisers.) as for their vacation dollars going elsewhere, that might be true now, but it wasn't necessarily true before restrictions were lifted elsewhere. they couldn't go on a plane or dine in some restaurants or visit some attractions.

Edited August 8, 2022 by UKstages

[RichYak]

5 minutes ago, UKstages said:

where are you getting the "minimum 20%" figure? does it arbitrarily come from a subset of the unvaxxed population? the percentage of those unvaxxed who have a propensity to cruise is likely very small. i had thought that was the main point of your earlier post. it certainly was of mine.

20% is an approximate percentage of unvaxxed in NCL's average passenger age.

 

My point is, removing the vaccine mandate won't move the needle to the point that you'll suddenly see >33% unvaxxed on board, but it WILL move the needle in terms of increased revenue and new bookings for NCL. Even if it's only a 10% increase, that's a LOT of new revenue.