September-October Disturbance Discussions

[PelicanBill]

Setting this up early as I have a busy week leading up to Sep. 1. 

 

Generally, when a disturbance in the Atlantic gets a name I make a new thread for it. Same for any in the Pacific that is a significant threat.

We discuss the disturbances, waves and lows here before they develop to named status.

Feel free to ask questions, talk about prospects for upcoming cruises, and such.

 

I'll have an eagle eye out at the end of October as I am on Legend from Baltimore for 2 weeks from October 30 to November 13.

[d9704011]

Looks like you ought to be good for the rest of August although they're calling for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.

[PelicanBill]

Danielle has formed, but heading northeast to nowhere. The orange storm has dropped a little to 70% chance.

[Honolulu Blue]

Tropical Storm Kay has formed off the coast of Mexico. Its projected path puts it near Los Cabos by mid week and Ensenada by Friday. Carnival Radiance and Carnival Panorama are scheduled to be in the path. Mariner OTS might also be in the danger zone. Watch for cancellations or reroutings if you're on one of those ships this week.

[Honolulu Blue]

22 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

Tropical Storm Kay has formed off the coast of Mexico. Its projected path puts it near Los Cabos by mid week and Ensenada by Friday. Carnival Radiance and Carnival Panorama are scheduled to be in the path. Mariner OTS might also be in the danger zone. Watch for cancellations or reroutings if you're on one of those ships this week.

I meant Navigator OTS. I apologize for the error.

[PelicanBill]

On 9/4/2022 at 6:25 PM, Honolulu Blue said:

I meant Navigator OTS. I apologize for the error.

Thanks so much for the news!  I was away this weekend.  Back to a busy storm map.

In the Atlantic:  Danielle formed in the north Atlantic but is not a threat.

Earl is disrupting cruises to Bermuda - see new thread on that.

We have a new 40% chance coming in but the path is not threatening, and another coming off Africa to watch.

 

[PelicanBill]

And, as @Honolulu Blue reported, Hurricane Kay is creeping up the Baja coast, and that will certainly disrupt cruises. I am hopeful that coastal damage will be light based in this path and strength.

[Honolulu Blue]

26 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Hurricane Kay is creeping up the Baja coast, and that will certainly disrupt cruises. I am hopeful that coastal damage will be light based in this path and strength.

Of course, I hope for the same.  🙏

[PelicanBill]

Not much change in the maps.

 

Watching Earl and Bermuda carefully.

 

New systems are at 60% and 30% (over 5 days) but not threatening much.

[Dreamer68]

Thanks for this thread! I've been trying to figure out if it's worth the headache cruising the Caribbean during hurricane season, now that we are not chained to a summer holiday school calendar. Looking at cruises departing MIA/ FLL/ MCO at the beginning and end of October. Our advantage is we are flexible enough to book just one week to 10 days before departure....hence the looking out for hurricane formation....  For all you seasoned cruisers, will 7-10 days before a cruise departure give you enough info on potential storms to make one's decision? Thanks!!

 

[wolft927]

I am cruising out of port Canaveral on September 29th, so 21 days out keeping an eye out for these storms. We are scheduled for the Eastern run, so as of now doesn't look like i have anything to worry about. 

[PelicanBill]

Things are quiet again!

 

[PelicanBill]

On 9/7/2022 at 6:18 PM, Dreamer68 said:

Thanks for this thread! I've been trying to figure out if it's worth the headache cruising the Caribbean during hurricane season, now that we are not chained to a summer holiday school calendar. Looking at cruises departing MIA/ FLL/ MCO at the beginning and end of October. Our advantage is we are flexible enough to book just one week to 10 days before departure....hence the looking out for hurricane formation....  For all you seasoned cruisers, will 7-10 days before a cruise departure give you enough info on potential storms to make one's decision? Thanks!!

 

Stay tuned then! I can often see what is possible a week ahead. That said, we do see rapid surprises and  changes in storm tracks. Good luck!
 

(my phone won’t let me post this after both quotes)

 

On 9/8/2022 at 9:12 AM, wolft927 said:

I am cruising out of port Canaveral on September 29th, so 21 days out keeping an eye out for these storms. We are scheduled for the Eastern run, so as of now doesn't look like i have anything to worry about. 

[PelicanBill]

One to watch aimed at the northeast islands. 40% chance over 5 days. Another behind it at 20%.

 

[PelicanBill]

That orange thing is now depression 7 and likely a named storm tomorrow, heading to many islands. Stay tuned. Islands impact starts Friday afternoon. St Maarten and the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, then Turks & Caicos…. All possible.

 

 

[wolft927]

14 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

That orange thing is now depression 7 and likely a named storm tomorrow, heading to many islands. Stay tuned. Islands impact starts Friday afternoon. St Maarten and the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, then Turks & Caicos…. All possible.

 

 

I anticipate some itinerary changes for the cruises leaving friday Saturday and Sunday heading to the eastern islands

[MandyMooToo]

Paying close attention to Fiona (especially) as we cruise out of Port Canaveral 9/24, going to the Bahamas.

[PelicanBill]

Starting a new thread for “Fiona”, named today.

[PelicanBill]

As we track Fiona, the disturbance farther out to sea has dropped to 0%, but a new 10% chance is being tracked closer to the Carolina coast.

 

[rafinmd]

@Pelican Bill have you seen anything about Typhoon Merbok?

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/16/1123512183/alaska-typhoon-merbok-storm-coast

 

Looks to me like the path will probably be too far North and West to affect many cruise ships although a Silversea ship is supposed to be in Dutch Harbor next weekend.

 

Roy

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, rafinmd said:

@Pelican Bill have you seen anything about Typhoon Merbok?

 

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/16/1123512183/alaska-typhoon-merbok-storm-coast

 

Looks to me like the path will probably be too far North and West to affect many cruise ships although a Silversea ship is supposed to be in Dutch Harbor next weekend.

 

Roy

yes! Kind of amazing that it is a typhoon remnant, although storms this strong aren’t unusual for Alaska. Just watch “Deadliest Catch”!

[SUNNY SoFla]

Growing concerned about the wave in the western Caribbean (98L). I’m supposed to leave on Allure OTS on 9/25 on a western Caribbean itinerary. Plus I live in Florida and have to think about boarding up before I go. 

[BeachDiva101]

2 hours ago, SUNNY SoFla said:

Growing concerned about the wave in the western Caribbean (98L). I’m supposed to leave on Allure OTS on 9/25 on a western Caribbean itinerary. Plus I live in Florida and have to think about boarding up before I go. 

I’m with you, I’m supposed to go on a cruise this Sunday on the Horizon to the western Caribbean, Jamaica on Tuesday and Grand Cayman on Wednesday Cozumel on Thursday.  I haven’t heard yet from carnival where they will redirect us to.  

[mafig]

15 hours ago, SUNNY SoFla said:

Growing concerned about the wave in the western Caribbean (98L).

 

Me, too!

[PelicanBill]

2 hours ago, mafig said:

 

Me, too!

Yeah, western and gulf itineraries need ro be on alert.