Ian - Atlantic - Sep 24

[PelicanBill]

TD 9 became Ian this morning.

Threat to Jamaica (heavy rain, flash flooding) and Cayman Islands as a Cat 1 storm.  Then Cuba, possibly Cat 2 by then, and finally forecast to strengthen as waters are warm in the gulf, to Cat 3. Path has shifted slightly and landfall closer to Tampa with strong impact to Naples area too.  Please prepare if you live anywhere on the Florida Gulf coast.

[mschancey]

No western caribbean iteneraries will go unscathed this week.

[Dreamer68]

13 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

TD 9 became Ian this morning.

Threat to Jamaica (heavy rain, flash flooding) and Cayman Islands as a Cat 1 storm.  Then Cuba, possibly Cat 2 by then, and finally forecast to strengthen as waters are warm in the gulf, to Cat 3. Path has shifted slightly and landfall closer to Tampa with strong impact to Naples area too.  Please prepare if you live anywhere on the Florida Gulf coast.

i

I was celebrating a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season till now. Thanks for the update. Too many populated areas potentially visited by Ian and his Atlantic friends. 😔 I really hope any damage is minimal although that makes me sound like I believe in  unicorns. 

[PelicanBill]

14 hours ago, mschancey said:

No western caribbean iteneraries will go unscathed this week.

Agree, but not for the ports. The problem is the path past Cuba is blocked Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

as I often suggest, the forecast path has shifted west today, heading toward the florida panhandle near Tallahassee.

[PelicanBill]

A little relief: Forecast to drop from Cat 4 to Cat 2 by Florida landfall.

[geocruiser]

14 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

A little relief: Forecast to drop from Cat 4 to Cat 2 by Florida landfall.

Lets hope it keeps dropping.  cat 2 is better than a cat 4.  But it still will do much damage.

[Essiesmom]

Although we in Coastal Ga would only get some wind, and rain, we are glad it might be weaker.  After Hurricane Matthew in 2016 we were 2.5 days without power.  That’s why I put solar on my house last year.  But I really don’t want to test it…. EM

[danilija]

Does anyone have experience of how the aircrafts will work during those times when hurricane goes closely by? We are supposed to fly from Miami on Wednesday and dont have a clue might there be consequences of high winds because of Ian?

[Diver2014]

Thanks for the updates.  I have more trust in this website than the Weather Channel.  They're all about doom and gloom and worst case scenarios.

[Honolulu Blue]

4 hours ago, danilija said:

Does anyone have experience of how the aircrafts will work during those times when hurricane goes closely by? We are supposed to fly from Miami on Wednesday and dont have a clue might there be consequences of high winds because of Ian?

I've flown a time or two into some bad weather, though never a hurricane.

 

Like cruise ships, airplanes try not to fly directly into storms.  Unlike cruise ships, planes have three dimensions to work with.  They'll swing wide to avoid a hurricane as much as possible, perhaps burning some extra fuel to do so.  If things get REALLY bad, they'll close the airport, and nothing can go in and out for a time.  

 

I don't see much effect on flights to or from MIA or FLL from Ian.  The hurricane should stay far enough away to not cause too much disruption.

[Diver2014]

9 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 I don't see much effect on flights to or from MIA or FLL from Ian.  The hurricane should stay far enough away to not cause too much disruption.

Amen on that!!!!

[mafig]

We're in Punta Gorda.  I was all "la de da, it's nothing" yesterday.

 

Nervous today.  🤞

[crewsweeper]

Seeing a noticeable model shift back toward the East instead of the Big Bend.   But until this storm gets beyond Cuba and out into the Gulf, going to be harder to get a better track.  Cone is very wide because of this.  

 

However,   East Florida cruises should be good to go this weekend.  And those heading to the Western C should be past all this if seas aren't to rough in the FL Straits.   Looks like GC bore the brunt of the  TS over the weekend. 

[geocruiser]

Let hope that Ian does not intensify.  The storm is large and just not a dot on the map.  The outer bands can be very dangerous.  There can be tornados in them.  So, you can be not close to the eye but still get lots of damage.

[PelicanBill]

16 hours ago, danilija said:

Does anyone have experience of how the aircrafts will work during those times when hurricane goes closely by? We are supposed to fly from Miami on Wednesday and dont have a clue might there be consequences of high winds because of Ian?

Yeah, airport close about same as ports - gale winds close to tropical storm level. Watch wind fields on detail maps. At this point I think Miami will not close… my best estimate.

[PelicanBill]

1 hour ago, crewsweeper said:

Seeing a noticeable model shift back toward the East instead of the Big Bend.   But until this storm gets beyond Cuba and out into the Gulf, going to be harder to get a better track.  Cone is very wide because of this.  

 

However,   East Florida cruises should be good to go this weekend.  And those heading to the Western C should be past all this if seas aren't to rough in the FL Straits.   Looks like GC bore the brunt of the  TS over the weekend. 

Agree!

lots of uncertainty still but all west coast of Florida needs to be ready for possible landfall from tropical storm up to cat 4. And trailing tornadoes, usually in the southwest quadrant behind the storm center.  If Cat 2 or greater, significant impact inland for 50-200 miles possible.

[zdad59]

We sail this week.   sat Oct 1 on Celebrity Infinity.     I’m not so concerned about the sailing.    They’ll go where the weather isn’t.    

 

MY CONCERN IS GETTING THERE AND THE FLIGHT FROM BALTIMORE.   We’re scheduled to fly Friday at 630am.  Gets us to FLL at 9am.   In theory, Ian has made landfall and is is exiting Florida into southern Georgia.  IN THEORY.   Should we leave Thursday instead?     Don’t want to wait until Saturday. 
 

Anyone with commercial pilot experience have thoughts ???

[geocruiser]

8 minutes ago, zdad59 said:

We sail this week.   sat Oct 1 on Celebrity Infinity.     I’m not so concerned about the sailing.    They’ll go where the weather isn’t.    

 

MY CONCERN IS GETTING THERE AND THE FLIGHT FROM BALTIMORE.   We’re scheduled to fly Friday at 630am.  Gets us to FLL at 9am.   In theory, Ian has made landfall and is is exiting Florida into southern Georgia.  IN THEORY.   Should we leave Thursday instead?     Don’t want to wait until Saturday. 
 

Anyone with commercial pilot experience have thoughts ???

It is not only where you are going to and from, but where the plane is coming in from before your flight.  

you flight may never make it to your home airport to pick you up.  how far are you from the port?

[zdad59]

1 minute ago, geocruiser said:

It is not only where you are going to and from, but where the plane is coming in from before your flight.  

you flight may never make it to your home airport to pick you up.  how far are you from the port?

Baltimore.    So driving is out of the question.   I agree that equipment and crews out of place can cause the most havoc. That exact thing happened getting there in April for our Apex sailing.    Most everything to Fla was cancelled because they had no equipment or crew.  We ended up flying into Orlando at 1am and drove down to Ft. Lauderdale. 

[Janthere]

We are in the same "boat" so to speak. We are due to leave on Scarlet Lady on Friday Sept 30 and have a flight scheduled from Vegas to Miami on AA at noon on Wednesday arriving in Miami at 8:30 pm.  We also have a refundable backup on the same flight on Thursday. But now I am wondering if we should be flying out tomorrow instead. I am just not sure if we are even crazy to be flying into Florida while most people are thinking about leaving! 

[Diver2014]

We don't leave Florida.  If they close the ports and airports and lock down the bridges, we just hunker down.  Been through lots of hurricanes, including Andrew.  Not to be complacent but just be in a safe place and wait to see what happens.

[wolft927]

We are driving Wednesday to port Canaveral to board the getaway on Thursday for 9 night cruise. Hoping we sail Thursday 

[geocruiser]

It is a Cat 2 now. 100MPH

Edited September 26, 2022 by geocruiser

[geocruiser]

5 minutes ago, wolft927 said:

We are driving Wednesday to port Canaveral to board the getaway on Thursday for 9 night cruise. Hoping we sail Thursday 

Where will you be staying?

[wolft927]

Staying at country in. And suites port Canaveral