Rhine water levels 2023 and similar topics

[Novakc]

We are doing the Treasures of the Rhine from Basel to Amsterdam on the Viking Tialfi February 18th to the 27th so I am carefully looking at your input.  Are you going to change your input for 2024?  I want to make sure I don't miss it.  

[notamermaid]

44 minutes ago, Novakc said:

We are doing the Treasures of the Rhine from Basel to Amsterdam on the Viking Tialfi February 18th to the 27th so I am carefully looking at your input.  Are you going to change your input for 2024?  I want to make sure I don't miss it.  

That is interesting to read! You will be be on the Tialfi in February that means kind of for us here trying out the new Viking winter offer.

 

I report little in winter but if there is anything important or fellow enthusiasts contribute I will be around for comments. Later in the month of January when 2023 is wrapped up I will start a new thread for 2024.

 

notamermaid

 

[Novakc]

We are excited about our cruise and especially that we will be in Basel for Fasnacht 2024. We are definitely hoping that the river flooding issues settles down. We are flexible and I am sure we will have a great time.  Thanks for your input.     

[notamermaid]

10 hours ago, Novakc said:

We are excited about our cruise and especially that we will be in Basel for Fasnacht 2024.

I was going to say you will miss Rhenish Carnival. The Basler Fasnacht is later than ours, had forgotten. That should be a great experience.

 

Have a great cruise.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

The situation along the Rhine is staying "interesting". The heavy rain this time is not causing problems around Basel or in the Upper Rhine valley. While the river is rising there as well, we will most likely see little flooding. I will get to Maxau gauge later.

 

Instead of problems up there in Baden-Württemberg, we get a higher volume of water from other tributaries that will cause problems in the parts close to the Middle Rhine valley and in the Middle Rhine valley (Bingen to Bonn). The Neckar is carrying a lot of water but the main drivers are the Main, Lahn, Moselle and Sieg (that one is close to Bonn). The Moselle has to take a lot of water from the rivers in Luxembourg and from the Saar. It is struggling. Marburg on the Lahn is on flooding level 3. The Tauber is feeding the Main a lot and the Upper Main itself is also very high.

 

As a result of all this the forecast for Kaub is this:

 

Tomorrow will see navigational flood mark I being reached. The yellow line marks the level of flooding that statistically happens every two years.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[notamermaid]

Let us do a first recap of December together with an explanation as to what a forecast at Maxau looks like. In November the river was high and with there not much chance of the level dropping a lot there was the risk of minor problems coming. The weather changed for the worse - for the rivers that is - and the problems were greater than anticipated. But what does this mean? While I have no chance of a full look back at the situation and constantly changing forecast graphs I can go back in this thread. Maxau gauge is the crucial gauge for checking on flooding in the Upper Rhine valley and a marker for that section of river, i.e. when Maxau gauge gets too high river traffic is suspended for safety reasons. Maxau gauge is near Karlsruhe in Germany. Okay, let us go back. I suspected problems would arise when I saw the first forecasts at Maxau showing fast rising levels. But I was even more alerted to this when I saw the situation at Hauenstein and at Basel deteriorate. With the sudden thaw and the rain, smaller rivers were draining faster than we would normally see and Lake Constance was very high. I did not want to go into too much detail at the time - as I will show later the forecast can change quite a bit - but did mention the risk.

 

So here goes. On 8 December I wrote:

"Thank you for the info. That is interesting. It looks as if Uniworld is doing a pre-emptive change due to the expected flooding. Smart move.

The German authorities are stating this: "Aufgrund des für das Wochenende vorhergesagten Tauwetters mit Regen werden die Wasserstände am Oberrhein ab dem morgigen Samstag stark ansteigen. Am Pegel Maxau wird ein Überschreiten der Meldehöhe von 700 cm am späten Samstag oder frühen Sonntag erwartet."

So, as I said, a thaw with rain making the levels rise. Maxau gauge is expected to reach official flooding status of 700cm late on Saturday or early Sunday.

To which I may add that it is likely now that there will be a river traffic ban.

notamermaid"

 

Note that I wrote "likely", so I will have seen this well indicated within the margin of error but I could not be sure.

 

Later on 8 December I wrote:

"The level at Maxau gauge fell but remained high throughout the rest of November and from there we now face another rise. The baseline being so high, the rain and snow melt give us the prospect of another river cruise ban. The newspapers are already reporting on the forecast and weather giving us a high risk of flooding. 750cm is almost certain and 780cm is very likely. This fast rise is expected to start in the early hours of Sunday and bring the river to 750cm and more within 24 hours."

 

So I was a bit more certain and got more precise. But then the situation on the Higher Rhine changed a little. Overall, we still needed to expect flooding but the timeline was altered. Therefore on 10 December I wrote this:

"The rises both at Hauenstein and Basel are now forecast for during the night, which means Maxau gauge's higher figures have been pushed well into Sunday. Maxau may reach 700cm by tomorrow night."

 

Then on 11 December I wrote this:

"The level at Maxau is now steady at 746cm. Looks like this is the plateau for the time being, with a slight drop to follow. Then, at this point in time, the forecast indicates the 750cm and river cruise ban to very likely occur in 26 to 28 hours."

 

Note that I wrote "very likely" and a quite precise time frame.

 

Then, the brutal news. On 12 December I wrote:

"I needed to confirm what I had suspected may happen when I looked late last night: have found a news report that says the river traffic ban has already been issued from Basel to Kembs and then extended to Kehl (that is the German harbour opposite Strasbourg). Now in the last hour or so the gauge at Maxau climbed to 750cm. It is now at 756cm. River traffic is suspended from Iffezheim lock to Germersheim railway bridge as well.

 

I have taken a screenshot for you of the German article:

It says that the authorities expect the ban to last the whole week."

 

 

If you are interested also in the posts in between those quoted ones, please read. I think I have given you the major developments leading up to the river traffic ban here in this summary.

 

Next we will look at Maxau gauge forecast explanations.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

[notamermaid]

Maxau gauge. It has got a page on the authorities' website and looks like this:

https://www.hvz.baden-wuerttemberg.de/pegel.html?id=09016

From the current levels page you can switch to the one that includes the forecast. The whole page, whether you are on the one or the other setting, is updated every 15 minutes. So if you want to remember a certain scenario you need to make a screenshot. I will explain the forecast a little and for that have taken two screenshots.

Here is the first one from just after midnight:

Current levels are recorded as the blue line, the red is the forecast, the orange line is the more tentative forecast, meaning the most likely trend with the thinner outline marking both high and low end of the margin. Judging from this I say that we will likely see the river go up to navigational flood mark I.

 

Next, the screenshot from tonight, less than 21 hours later:

 

You can clearly see the major change in that the second "hump" has almost gone. But the first "hump" is also higher and now reaches to over the HMO mark and there is little error in that as it is already marked by a full red line. I will now say that the river level at Maxau is very likely to reach the official marker for flooding.

 

You can see that a significant change can happen in a relatively short space of time.

 

Now, while I would be happy to bring 2023 to a close the weather is not cooperating and we have a major change in that one river cruise company is not bringing the season to a proper close but continuing winter sailings ((notamermaid shakes her head slightly disapprovingly)), I feel I need to be fair and continue a bit here.

 

That means while we can almost ignore what is happening at Maxau we need to look further downstream and at the situation in the Rhine Gorge. You know, we will not see a river traffic ban around Maxau and all river cruises will run smoothly... Or will they? That is the big question and I of course cannot answer that but smooth sailing is an uncertainty to some extent. Navigational flood mark I means adjusted sailing and extra vigilance. We will see it again at Maxau - see my comments above - and Mainz will reach that threshold tomorrow. Bingen has gone over it and Kaub will follow tomorrow. Koblenz has gone over it and is on official flooding status. The situation there is causing some concern.

 

So I hope for the best for those two new Viking itineraries "Treasures of the Rhine" on the Alruna and the Tialfi starting tomorrow:

 

 

 

That's it for tonight.

 

notamermaid

 

[Host Jazzbeau]

Thanks as always @notamermaid for all the work you do keeping us up to date on river levels around Germany.  You make this CC Forum so much more valuable!

 

Whenever you start up the 2024 threads, I will change over the sticky index thread for them.

[ural guy]

Notamermaid-  Sure you weren't a hydrology major in another lifetime?

 

Great data and reporting.  Thanks. 

[notamermaid]

Thank you for your kind words and thanks.

 

Need to keep the reporting a bit shorter today. Yesterday I hinted at the concerns for Koblenz. That was based on the graph and forecast from the Rhineland-Palatinate authorities. Now even more in the full wave and concerns further confirmed. We will see a lot of flooding and the graph is now above the line for a flood that occurs every two years. The screenshot:

 

This is locally an infrastructure problem, meaning embankments are getting impassable, car parks are closed and bus routes altered. For river traffic you can see the now almost inevitable. The ban from 650cm onwards is inevitable if the river follows the most likely forecast scenario.

 

Inevitably, Andernach not being far away the level there is also on navigational flood mark I and rising fast. A river traffic ban there is not clearly indicated.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4 by notamermaid
added info

[notamermaid]

The river at Koblenz is basically on track with the forecast. Current figure is 631cm. The dreaded figure of 650cm appears in the forecast at 2am local time. It is now just after 8pm.

 

Andernach will most likely peak just below its navigational flood mark II but it is close and we cannot exclude a turn for the worse. Same goes for Oberwinter (close to Bonn).

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

Maxau as forecast has gone over the HMO mark (see post #1032) and is now at 654cm. No further rise of note forecast.

 

Further downstream the situation, as you know, is different. Mainz, Bingen and Kaub are still rising but thankfully will stay under navigational flood mark II.

 

Koblenz is still rising as well, the crucial flood mark II was reached at 3am. The rise has slowed down so that is good.

 

The rise at Andernach gauge has also slowed so the authorities are saying this morning that the level should peak just below the crucial mark II.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

Oberwinter gauge will most likely peak just below mark II, but it is close, very close.

 

Oberwinter gauge is the yellow dot just South of Bad Honnef:

 

So, a problem for the Alruna and the Tialfi? Not for the Alruna most likely but the Tialfi is facing the high levels in the Netherlands and the wave is coming towards her. Remember, high river levels cause landing stages to flood. Another docking day in the winter harbour at Cologne Niehl?

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

No ships moving at Koblenz:

 

The level at Cologne is of course rising as well and there is not much room until a river traffic ban is issued there, 18cm to go. A webcam of the skyline:

https://www.feratel.com/webcams/deutschland/koeln-hyatt-regency-hotel.html

 

notamermaid

 

[moonriver54]

Early last October our Avalon river cruise ship was docked at the location adjacent to the railroad bridge shown at the beginning of the video.  It looked nothing like that!  That's very impressive.

[notamermaid]

1 hour ago, moonriver54 said:

That's very impressive.

When I look at the webcams and videos on youtube I try to look at it with the fresh eye of a visitor or someone like you who saw this in bloom and/or good conditions.

 

Again, I think it is best to come in spring rather than now...

 

But of course I hope that the cruisers now are having a great time. I believe the Alruna and the Tialfi are sailing tonight, or, if I got the info on the Viking website wrong, tomorrow (4 January is the itinerary begin date on the website, not the sail away day or time). By the way, with the Tialfi now in Amsterdam is the Arosa Brava. She will return to Cologne after exploring the Low Countries.

 

Oberwinter gauge is so close, 6cm to go to mark II.

 

notamermaid

 

Edited January 5 by notamermaid
added info

[notamermaid]

The level at Koblenz has peaked. Data suggests that right now the peak is going through Andernach, 10cm below the crucial mark II. Oberwinter: tight.

 

One Viking river cruise landing stage at Cologne is confirmed partly under water as per this video of six hours ago, see 0:16 (it comes later in the video without the submerged bit visible):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28BuoV6A7OU

 

The Viking Tialfi has left Amsterdam, the Viking Alruna as of this minute is still in Basel.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

Edited January 5 by notamermaid

[notamermaid]

Andernach gauge looking good, signs of going down now. Oberwinter gauge at peak now, looking to run just four centimetres under the crucial mark II and then hopefully going down. Cologne tight, but signs are relatively good for staying under flood mark II.

 

The Viking Alruna has left Basel.

 

notamermaid

 

[reeves35]

Given all the Christmas Market cruises are completed now, how many river cruises are actually operating now?  I imagine, given it is mid-winter, that the numbers of active cruises is actually very small with most ships hibernating for the next couple of months.

[notamermaid]

8 hours ago, reeves35 said:

Given all the Christmas Market cruises are completed now, how many river cruises are actually operating now?

Online booking websites give a clue. In Germany, you can book few cruises in Europe. You mostly get the Nile. A few ships sail. Arosa on the Rhine, on the Danube; CroisiEurope has a couple of specials for the Carnivals in February. Viva Cruises with three ships. Those are mostly short return trips, but they have the long canals trip of Northern Germany in February, that is one vessel doing it. Viking with its long offer on the Rhine is the odd one out. Amawaterways will be starting in February this year. There may be a few others.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

[notamermaid]

Koblenz gauge is better, has left mark II. Andernach, okay, now also going down. Oberwinter peaked at 676cm, four centimetres below mark II. Deep breath at Cologne, river traffic ban averted.

 

Düsseldorf gauge at peak now. Well below mark II for a river traffic ban.

 

In short. I have checked Kaub to Duisburg. All on navigational flood mark I. Difficult conditions. No ban.

 

Maxau looking good, but also mark I.

 

The water levels will recede for a bit, but the Rhine still needs to take on that high volume of water from the Main. Now we have frost coming, i.e. a proper January.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

[moonriver54]

17 hours ago, notamermaid said:

The level at Koblenz has peaked. Data suggests that right now the peak is going through Andernach, 10cm below the crucial mark II. Oberwinter: tight.

 

One Viking river cruise landing stage at Cologne is confirmed partly under water as per this video of six hours ago, see 0:16 (it comes later in the video without the submerged bit visible):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28BuoV6A7OU

 

The Viking Tialfi has left Amsterdam, the Viking Alruna as of this minute is still in Basel.

 

notamermaid

 

 

 

Wow.  We docked with Avalon last October in Cologne at the location shown at 1:20 in the video above.  It was a long walk DOWN to the ship from the promenade along the river that's now flooding.

[notamermaid]

59 minutes ago, moonriver54 said:

It was a long walk DOWN to the ship from the promenade

Yup! Compare the slight incline at Speyer in this photo in December. I think that pontoon is being stretched to its physical limits (thanks to the photographer for uploading this photo, he invites comments): https://www.fotocommunity.de/photo/hochwasser-am-rhein-gorzitze-dieter/47964760

 

As this "Treasures..." itinerary differs from the standard Amsterdam to Basel one, the Viking Tialfi is in Nijmegen today. Facing the wave later today.

 

Cologne officially peaked at 823cm, 7cm under the threshold for a river traffic ban.  The crest of the wave is now between Duisburg and Wesel. They will both peak before the evening. The conditions on the Lower Rhine there in Germany are different, no prospect of a river traffic ban. I am not familiar with the Rhine/Waal in the Netherlands.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[ural guy]

We disembarked the Alruna Monday.  Crew said they were getting that day to do a deep clean and setup, then Tues/Wed off, and a new group of cruisers boarding Thursday.

 

We asked our server if they were volunteers to work over the Holidays.  Instead the ship had crew on it from several other boats, and they had all started their contract (10 month?), later in the season then typical.  They seemed like a very happy crew, and willing to do whatever they could for you.  Our cabin guy seemed disappointed as I told him not to bother with service about 40% of the time, just swap out the water bottles.  He came from a huge ocean ship, and was so cheerful and happy to be on the river now.

[notamermaid]

The river has naturally been very busy today since the ban on traffic was lifted at Koblenz. The backlog of ships is clearing, slowly of course as the whole Middle Rhine valley is still on mark I. The big clean-up has started, one cannot allow the mud to dry:

https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/rheinland-pfalz/dauerregen-und-hochwasser-in-rlp-102.html

 

Note the buoy construction in the video, that is a "Wahrschauboot", the signal boat warns traffic of narrow passage at the bridge construction site.

 

notamermaid