Highest Prices We Have Seen

[mcrcruiser]

Happy Easter Everyone 

[mcrcruiser]

Seems to me that if Carnival ,Royal Carribean & Norwegian cruise lines were doing so spectacular in their bookings ,prices & profits  their stocks prices would be zooming ;but ,that simply is not the case

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Seems to me that if Carnival ,Royal Carribean & Norwegian cruise lines were doing so spectacular in their bookings ,prices & profits  their stocks prices would be zooming ;but ,that simply is not the case

Why would you expect them to be zooming? All of them diluted their stock during Covid.  All of them took on debt. All of them are fairly priced for them to recover to their Precovid revenue numbers. So no sign their business is doing badly for all of your doom and gloom comments.

 

Take precovid revenue and simular operations profit margin,  subtract the debt payments, and divide by the current number of shares (which is a considerably higher number than 3 years ago). Apply a similar multiple to projected earnings and you get just about where the stock are currently setting. Basically the market looks ahead about a year so the expectations are that the cruise lines will be doing that level of revenue late 2023, early 2024.

 

No way the stock will be going gangbusters until the debt is reduced and they buy back some of those share they sold over the past 3 years.  There will be some fluctuation, but no big rise.

[farmecologist]

We have never sailed on HAL before.  However, I was sent a mailing for the "Have it all early booking bonus".  So I looked up an interesting itinerary ( "7-day tropical Caribbean" ) for early December, 2024.  The Final price with taxes and port fees was $3198.  The kicker to get you to book is the "have it all" bonus, of course.  However, after reading this thread, I'm not sure these prices are a "good deal" at all..even with the perks.

 

Thoughts?  3200 seems high to me compared to what we used to pay...even with the great perks.  And it is a LONG way out in the future.  Do any of you book these "early booking" deals? 

 

I'm hesitating on this because we are value based travelers...and my gut is saying $3200 is too much for a 7 day Caribbean cruise.  I think we are spoiled though as we were able to book Viking river cruises *with free international airfare* for a little over 5K...and they threw in their drink package as well.  Given the free airfare, that is an astounding deal to us.

 

Sorry for my rambling...but just wanted some thoughts on the HAL "have it all early booking bonus" deal and wanted to provide some context.  👍

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2023 by farmecologist

[Mary229]

5 minutes ago, farmecologist said:

We have never sailed on HAL before.  However, I was sent a mailing for the "Have it all early booking bonus".  So I looked up an interesting itinerary ( "7-day tropical Caribbean" ) for early December, 2024.  The Final price with taxes and port fees was $3198.  The kicker to get you to book is the "have it all" bonus, of course.  However, after reading this thread, I'm not sure these prices are a "good deal" at all..even with the perks.

 

Thoughts?  3200 seems high to me compared to what we used to pay...even with the great perks.  And it is a LONG way out in the future.  Do any of you book these "early booking" deals? 

 

I'm hesitating on this because we are value based travelers...and my gut is saying $3200 is too much for a 7 day Caribbean cruise.  I think we are spoiled though as we were able to book Viking river cruises *with free international airfare* for a little over 5K...and they threw in their drink package as well.  Given the free airfare, that is an astounding deal to us.

 

Sorry for my rambling...but just wanted some thoughts on the HAL "have it all early booking bonus" deal and wanted to provide some context.  👍

 

 

 

7 day run of the mill Caribbean cruises are not HAL’s strong suit.  I would not book but of course I don’t do HIA nor suites 

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

Welcome to 2023

[CruiserBruce]

2 hours ago, farmecologist said:

We have never sailed on HAL before.  However, I was sent a mailing for the "Have it all early booking bonus".  So I looked up an interesting itinerary ( "7-day tropical Caribbean" ) for early December, 2024.  The Final price with taxes and port fees was $3198.  The kicker to get you to book is the "have it all" bonus, of course.  However, after reading this thread, I'm not sure these prices are a "good deal" at all..even with the perks.

 

Thoughts?  3200 seems high to me compared to what we used to pay...even with the great perks.  And it is a LONG way out in the future.  Do any of you book these "early booking" deals? 

 

I'm hesitating on this because we are value based travelers...and my gut is saying $3200 is too much for a 7 day Caribbean cruise.  I think we are spoiled though as we were able to book Viking river cruises *with free international airfare* for a little over 5K...and they threw in their drink package as well.  Given the free airfare, that is an astounding deal to us.

 

Sorry for my rambling...but just wanted some thoughts on the HAL "have it all early booking bonus" deal and wanted to provide some context.  👍

 

 

 

We don't know what level cabin you are looking at...hard to comment. Per person, or for the cabin?

 

You don't have to book with HIA.

[Boatdrill]

2 hours ago, farmecologist said:

We have never sailed on HAL before.  However, I was sent a mailing for the "Have it all early booking bonus".   The kicker to get you to book is the "have it all" bonus, of course.  However, after reading this thread, I'm not sure these prices are a "good deal" at all..even with the perks.

When deciding if the Have It All perks are a good deal, you can figure that you'd need to drink 6-14 alcohol beverages a day to make economic sense. If the itinerary is port-intensive, you may not have time to drink that much onboard. 

 

Also, the total fare of $3198 divided by 7 days = $456 per day, or $228 per person. Does the per day price equal the value you'll receive ?

Only you can answer  that.   

Edited April 9, 2023 by Boatdrill

[sfaaa]

Deposit is fully refundable. There is little downside to book and decide later. 

Edited April 9, 2023 by sfaaa

[Guest ldtr]

25 minutes ago, Boatdrill said:

When deciding if the Have It All perks are a good deal, you can figure that you'd need to drink 6-14 alcohol beverages a day to make economic sense. If the itinerary is port-intensive, you may not have time to drink that much onboard. 

 

Also, the total fare of $3198 divided by 7 days = $456 per day, or $228 per person. Does the per day price equal the value you'll receive ?

Only you can answer  that.   

I just booked a 27 day cruise with HAL with have it all. On that cruise I calculated that when you added up all of the included items, the difference per day was $11 dollars per day. So about 1 drink per day not 6 to 14.

[CruiserBruce]

21 minutes ago, ldtr said:

I just booked a 27 day cruise with HAL with have it all. On that cruise I calculated that when you added up all of the included items, the difference per day was $11 dollars per day. So about 1 drink per day not 6 to 14.

Agree. Many posts here indicate HIA runs about $50 per day, including the dining credit and the shore excursion credit. Maybe 6 drinks a day...not even near 10 drinks to break even, not to mention 14.

[seagarsmoker]

20 minutes ago, ldtr said:

I just booked a 27 day cruise with HAL with have it all. On that cruise I calculated that when you added up all of the included items, the difference per day was $11 dollars per day. So about 1 drink per day not 6 to 14.

It also depends on which HIA package you get since they have three of them. The early bonus HIA is the best deal, which we have on two future cruises. We don't drink adult beverages, just coke and since we usually buy the soda package, we come out ahead buying the early bonus HIA. 

[Guest ldtr]

21 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

Agree. Many posts here indicate HIA runs about $50 per day, including the dining credit and the shore excursion credit. Maybe 6 drinks a day...not even near 10 drinks to break even, not to mention 14.

but HIA also included gratuities and internet which makes up most of the cost. Add in the excursions and dining and closer to 1 or 2 drinks.

[Guest ldtr]

23 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

Agree. Many posts here indicate HIA runs about $50 per day, including the dining credit and the shore excursion credit. Maybe 6 drinks a day...not even near 10 drinks to break even, not to mention 14.

but HIA that we got also included gratuities and internet which makes up most of the cost. Add in the excursions and dining and closer to 1 or 2 drinks.

Edited April 9, 2023 by ldtr

[mcrcruiser]

6 hours ago, farmecologist said:

We have never sailed on HAL before.  However, I was sent a mailing for the "Have it all early booking bonus".  So I looked up an interesting itinerary ( "7-day tropical Caribbean" ) for early December, 2024.  The Final price with taxes and port fees was $3198.  The kicker to get you to book is the "have it all" bonus, of course.  However, after reading this thread, I'm not sure these prices are a "good deal" at all..even with the perks.

 

Thoughts?  3200 seems high to me compared to what we used to pay...even with the great perks.  And it is a LONG way out in the future.  Do any of you book these "early booking" deals? 

 

I'm hesitating on this because we are value based travelers...and my gut is saying $3200 is too much for a 7 day Caribbean cruise.  I think we are spoiled though as we were able to book Viking river cruises *with free international airfare* for a little over 5K...and they threw in their drink package as well.  Given the free airfare, that is an astounding deal to us.

 

Sorry for my rambling...but just wanted some thoughts on the HAL "have it all early booking bonus" deal and wanted to provide some context.  👍

 

 

 

you are 1000c% correct . $3200 is way too much if it is a balcony non suite price for the Caribbean 

[mcrcruiser]

17 hours ago, ldtr said:

Why would you expect them to be zooming? All of them diluted their stock during Covid.  All of them took on debt. All of them are fairly priced for them to recover to their Precovid revenue numbers. So no sign their business is doing badly for all of your doom and gloom comments.

 

Take precovid revenue and simular operations profit margin,  subtract the debt payments, and divide by the current number of shares (which is a considerably higher number than 3 years ago). Apply a similar multiple to projected earnings and you get just about where the stock are currently setting. Basically the market looks ahead about a year so the expectations are that the cruise lines will be doing that level of revenue late 2023, early 2024.

 

No way the stock will be going gangbusters until the debt is reduced and they buy back some of those share they sold over the past 3 years.  There will be some fluctuation, but no big rise.

My post is i response to those people who say that bookings are flying off the wall . If that was so true the stocks would reflect that growth 

[YXU AC*SE]

51 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

My post is i response to those people who say that bookings are flying off the wall . If that was so true the stocks would reflect that growth 

 

And why do we think booking velocity is somehow correlative to share value?    Actual verbatim from Q1 2023 analysts / results call from two weeks ago ...  

 

Josh Weinstein:

"To that end, wave season has been phenomenal. It started early with record Black Friday booking volumes and has continued to build. We achieved our highest ever quarterly booking volumes in our company's history, and we actually had our best weekly booking volume for this wave the last week in February. And the good news is that strength in bookings has continued into March, supporting our revenue expectations for the remainder of the year. Of course, we're working very hard to do even better.

 

"In North America, our Carnival brand continues to propel us forward, breaking new booking records every single week in January and February. Booking volumes for our North American brands have been running in excess of record 2019 levels for the last 6 months and booking lead times are now back to peak levels."

 

EBITDA numbers might look good, but you might remind yourself what comprises EBITDA, and then ask yourself what is contributing to share price drag.  And then factor in dilution. Or not.   Scott. 

Edited April 9, 2023 by YXU AC*SE

[Guest ldtr]

43 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

My post is i response to those people who say that bookings are flying off the wall . If that was so true the stocks would reflect that growth 

Actually it would not. The current stock price reflects the expectation that the cruiselines are returning to pre covid occupancy. In other words it reflects that bookings are as you put it flying off the walls. If things were not going well they would be much much lower. The stock price reflects fair value with the number of shares and debt level and very good level of bookings.

[mcrcruiser]

6 minutes ago, YXU AC*SE said:

 

And why do we think booking velocity is somehow correlative to share value?    Actual verbatim from Q1 2023 analysts / results call from two weeks ago ...  

 

Josh Weinstein:

"To that end, wave season has been phenomenal. It started early with record Black Friday booking volumes and has continued to build. We achieved our highest ever quarterly booking volumes in our company's history, and we actually had our best weekly booking volume for this wave the last week in February. And the good news is that strength in bookings has continued into March, supporting our revenue expectations for the remainder of the year. Of course, we're working very hard to do even better.

 

"In North America, our Carnival brand continues to propel us forward, breaking new booking records every single week in January and February. Booking volumes for our North American brands have been running in excess of record 2019 levels for the last 6 months and booking lead times are now back to peak levels."

 

EBITDA numbers might look good, but you might remind yourself what comprises EBITDA, and then ask yourself what is contributing to share price drag.  Or not.   Scott. 

Now why wouldn't a CEO use the best info , However ,what about the rest of this years bookings .Wave season is not all year long .A true picture will be year end  .Reason I say this is because   most new booking prices are  very high while the lines cut back staff , food selection & food quality.Also no more twice daily cabin service ,no towel animals & no chocolates ie ,Minor but what else have the cruise lines cut 

[3rdGenCunarder]

3 hours ago, ldtr said:

but HIA that we got also included gratuities and internet which makes up most of the cost. Add in the excursions and dining and closer to 1 or 2 drinks.

 

Internet is the big if with HIA. If you don't want internet, HIA is not a great bargain unless you get the early booking bonus with the gratuities. 

And as @CruiserBruce said above, you don't have to take the fare with HIA. There are usually three fares. The lowest has a nonrefundable deposit. The highest is the HIA fare. There is also the "advantage fare," which does not appear on an internet search. It has a refundable deposit, and is more expensive than the lowest fare (do they call it "best fare" or something like that?), but less expensive than the HIA fare. 

[mcrcruiser]

11 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Actually it would not. The current stock price reflects the expectation that the cruiselines are returning to pre covid occupancy. In other words it reflects that bookings are as you put it flying off the walls. If things were not going well they would be much much lower. The stock price reflects fair value with the number of shares and debt level and very good level of bookings.

We will see by year end the real bottom line ,so to speak . These very high prices & simultaneous cut backs just will not expand the customer  base 

[mcrcruiser]

1 minute ago, 3rdGenCunarder said:

 

Internet is the big if with HIA. If you don't want internet, HIA is not a great bargain unless you get the early booking bonus with the gratuities. 

And as @CruiserBruce said above, you don't have to take the fare with HIA. There are usually three fares. The lowest has a nonrefundable deposit. The highest is the HIA fare. There is also the "advantage fare," which does not appear on an internet search. It has a refundable deposit, and is more expensive than the lowest fare (do they call it "best fare" or something like that?), but less expensive than the HIA fare. 

All true & when we priced out the 7 night  Mexican riviera cruise it was based on HAL's Advantage Fare almost $3000 for 2 pax  vs  the same cruise in 2019 At $1700 for 2 pax ,The is a huge price increase & imo  certainly not a good value

[mcrcruiser]

20 minutes ago, 3rdGenCunarder said:

 

Internet is the big if with HIA. If you don't want internet, HIA is not a great bargain unless you get the early booking bonus with the gratuities. 

And as @CruiserBruce said above, you don't have to take the fare with HIA. There are usually three fares. The lowest has a nonrefundable deposit. The highest is the HIA fare. There is also the "advantage fare," which does not appear on an internet search. It has a refundable deposit, and is more expensive than the lowest fare (do they call it "best fare" or something like that?), but less expensive than the HIA fare. 

imo cruise lines internets including Star link are not worth the money because they do not work all the time .The only HIA that had real value was when HAL included ppd  gratuities .Unless you are a big alcohol drinker the package  costs do not favor the average cruiser when you do the math 

[00649]

As far as bookings, we just got off the Zaandam and hundreds on that cruise were on free or heavily discounted casino cruise offers, .Also many where using their credits from covid cancelled cruises. First cruise we have been on that the casino was jammed packed every night, but the world stage shows were never half full.Sad to see most guests only needing to  gamble  a few bucks to get their next cruise.Many ballcaps, shorts, tshirts,flipfops in the MDR and speciality dining. We had friends who havent cruised and were thinking of coming with us,I would have been sick if they had and seen how people dressed on this cruise.However when your giving away cruises this is what one must get used to.We will never go on a HAL cruise again thats less than 30 days.  

[Laminator]

31 minutes ago, 00649 said:

As far as bookings, we just got off the Zaandam and hundreds on that cruise were on free or heavily discounted casino cruise offers, .Also many where using their credits from covid cancelled cruises. First cruise we have been on that the casino was jammed packed every night, but the world stage shows were never half full.Sad to see most guests only needing to  gamble  a few bucks to get their next cruise.Many ballcaps, shorts, tshirts,flipfops in the MDR and speciality dining. We had friends who havent cruised and were thinking of coming with us,I would have been sick if they had and seen how people dressed on this cruise.However when your giving away cruises this is what one must get used to.We will never go on a HAL cruise again thats less than 30 days.  

I think hundreds may be a little bit of an exaggeration. There was just a huge slot tournament that ended Saturday on the NS. Most anyone wanting to take advantage of a casino cruise would have been on the NS. 

Edited April 10, 2023 by Laminator