New CLIA 2023 State of the Industry report

[Mary229]

Demand is high and it appears the average age of cruisers has decreased.  

CLIA_State of the Cruise Industry Report-Sept 2023 Update Live.pdf

[HappyInVan]

5 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Demand is high and it appears the average age of cruisers has decreased.  

40 downloads

 

Really!!! I wonder why CCL is at $11 instead of $51?

[Toofarfromthesea]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Really!!! I wonder why CCL is at $11 instead of $51?

 

Good question.  And good for me, as I just bought my 100 shares of CCL for under 12 to secure my shareholder benefit.  But not a harbinger of good times for the cruise industry as interest rates have skyrocketed on the massive debt they've undertaken.

[Honolulu Blue]

12 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Demand is high and it appears the average age of cruisers has decreased.  

CLIA_State of the Cruise Industry Report-Sept 2023 Update Live.pdf 6.18 MB · 42 downloads

Thanks for sharing.  I found quite a few interesting nuggets in this document.  Allow me to spotlight some of them:

 

• CLIA considers Gen X as a "younger" generation.  As a Gen Xer myself, I resemble that remark. 🙂  I'll try to ignore my creaking old bones.
• Asia & China fell way off as a destination region between 2019 and 2022
• To a lesser extent, so did Australia/NZ/Pacific
• The passengers on Transatlatic/World cruises, exploration cruises, and Canada/New England cruises all have average passenger ages of 62+.  Not surprising, but interesting.
• Hawaii cruise passengers average near 60
• Asia & China has both the lowest average age and shortest average trip length, with considerable distance in both categories
• Caribbean/Bahamas/Bermuda is second in average age (around 44) and third in shortest average trip length (about 6 days)
• NA West Coast/Mexico/California/Pacific Coast has an average trip length of about 5 days
• The top 10 worldwide port list is very interesting... 
• You may have heard that Port Canaveral was the top cruise port in the world last year; certainly I did.  CLIA sees it differently - POM is #1 by their count and PC #3, with almost a million difference between them.
• Barcelona is in between Miami and PC
• Two ports listed are overwhelmingly transit ports as opposed to embark/disembark ports.  I trust that none of us are surprised that Nassau is on the list.  Puerta Maya in Cozumel made the list too.  I wonder if it's JUST Puerta Maya, which hosts mainly Carnival Corp. ships.  Cozumel has two other ports nearby.
• The age of the average cruiser in 2022 was 46.5, with 65% being 40+ (about evenly split between 40-59 and 60+)

Edited October 20, 2023 by Honolulu Blue

[Mary229]

46 minutes ago, Honolulu Blue said:

• age of the average cruiser in 2022 was 46.5, with 65% being 40+ (about evenly split between 40-59 and 60+)

Edited 43 minutes ago by Honolulu Blue

I didn’t do the back research but by recollection the average age of cruisers was in the late 50s just a few years ago.  It seems the lines have really made inroads into the family vacation market. They are now competing directly with the large amusement parks and the road trip. Road trips, popular during the shutdowns, will likely start back on the waning track they were on prior to 2020

Edited October 20, 2023 by Mary229

[AKJonesy]

I was kind of surprised to read the age groups with mobility issues.  I thought Boomers would've been the highest.  I recently watched a program online regarding a cruise ship with state of the art technology for environmental responsibility.  Very interesting.  The only thing I'm left with wondering is if the communities will continue to allow cruise ships in their ports as there seems to be SOME pushback on this.  I guess we will see.  

[chengkp75]

9 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Really!!! I wonder why CCL is at $11 instead of $51?

Because they are using customer deposits to pay down debt.

[mnocket]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Because they are using customer deposits to pay down debt.

It makes me wonder, if this is how the stocks perform when things are going well, what's going to happen when there is a downturn in vacation spending? 

[JRG]

17 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Demand is high and it appears the average age of cruisers has decreased.  

 

Mary,  this is a fantastic data set that you have found.

 

 

 

It can be so useful in so many of the threads that are discussed here on CC with everybody having the ability to see the same data,  and from the same source, CLIA.  Who could argue with them.?

 

Me thinks you deserve extra-credit bonus points for finding this golden nugget.

 

Good-bye silly arguments.   The Goose-Egg produced by the USA's relative contribution to Shipbuilding is interesting to those who believe that PVSA is helping protect Shipbuilding.

 

Thank You.

 

 

 

 

[Mary229]

13 minutes ago, JRG said:

 

Mary,  this is a fantastic data set that you have found.

 

 

 

It can be so useful in so many of the threads that are discussed here on CC with everybody having the ability to see the same data,  and from the same source, CLIA.  Who could argue with them.?

 

Me thinks you deserve extra-credit bonus points for finding this golden nugget.

 

Good-bye silly arguments.   The Goose-Egg produced by the USA's relative contribution to Shipbuilding is interesting to those who believe that PVSA is helping protect Shipbuilding.

 

Thank You.

 

 

 

 

They produce this document annually though it was disrupted by the shutdowns.  You can go into their archives and should be able to find previous years.  It is quite the treasure trove of data, I agree. 

[HappyInVan]

Actually, I'm only interested in the data for just a few brands; like HAL.

[Mary229]

4 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Actually, I'm only interested in the data for just a few brands; like HAL.

That is not this report, this is the state of the entire cruise industry.  You would have to go to the SEC website and read the CCL reports. Or here:

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/financial-information/quarterly-and-semiannual-reports

Edited October 20, 2023 by Mary229

[JRG]

41 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

They produce this document annually though it was disrupted by the shutdowns.  You can go into their archives and should be able to find previous years.  It is quite the treasure trove of data, I agree. 

 

Good to know.   Analysts like to 'stack them and rack them' when they do comparative analysis from year to year to identify and visualize (graph) historical trends.

 

In the case of US shipbuilding,  graphing these year by year will show the composite performance of US shipbuilding relative to the global production and my gut feeling is that we were bringing up the rear but I didn't have anything to back up my suspicion.   

 

You've helped me 'Bag an Elephant' on this one.

 

I like a lot of the other graphs in the report too though.

 

 

 

[Mary229]

3 minutes ago, JRG said:

 

Good to know.   Analysts like to 'stack them and rack them' when they do comparative analysis from year to year to identify and visualize (graph) historical trends.

 

In the case of US shipbuilding,  graphing these year by year will show the composite performance of US shipbuilding relative to the global production and my gut feeling is that we were bringing up the rear but I didn't have anything to back up my suspicion.   

 

You've helped me 'Bag an Elephant' on this one.

 

I like a lot of the other graphs in the report too though.

 

 

 

You may already be aware but here is another website that keeps tabs on the industry.  https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/store/

[Heidi13]

2 hours ago, Mary229 said:

That is not this report, this is the state of the entire cruise industry.  You would have to go to the SEC website and read the CCL reports. Or here:

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/financial-information/quarterly-and-semiannual-reports

 

Not all cruise lines are member of CLIA, so the report does not quite cover the entire cruise industry.

[Mary229]

Here is the list of cruise lines who are members.  I think this covers most of us on cruise critic and likely represents the industry as well as any measure

 

https://cruising.org/en/cruise-lines

[HappyInVan]

3 hours ago, Mary229 said:

That is not this report, this is the state of the entire cruise industry.  You would have to go to the SEC website and read the CCL reports. Or here:

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/financial-information/quarterly-and-semiannual-reports

 

Thanks, I'm familiar with the quarterly reports. Doesn't provide much info about HAL.

 

BTW, here's the headline for 3Q report...

 

"CARNIVAL CORPORATION & PLC REPORTS ALL-TIME RECORD REVENUE AND DEMONSTRATES STRONG THIRD QUARTER 2023 EARNINGS MOMENTUM"

 

That must be why CCL is trading at $11.

[Mary229]

Just now, HappyInVan said:

 

Thanks, I'm familiar with the quarterly reports. Doesn't provide much info about HAL.

 

BTW, here's the headline for 3Q report...

 

"CARNIVAL CORPORATION & PLC REPORTS ALL-TIME RECORD REVENUE AND DEMONSTRATES STRONG THIRD QUARTER 2023 EARNINGS MOMENTUM"

 

That must be why CCL is trading at $11.

Nothing is going to pass HAL’s lips concerning revenue that isn’t approved by corporate.  Most of this data is proprietary and the reports are about as good as the public will get.  

[Heidi13]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

Here is the list of cruise lines who are members.  I think this covers most of us on cruise critic and likely represents the industry as well as any measure

 

https://cruising.org/en/cruise-lines

 

CLIA is mostly the cruise lines serving the North American market. Doesn't include a number of European Lines with Viking, Hurtigruten, Ambassador, Fred Olsen just some that aren't members. Viking as a ocean, river and expedition cruise line are the biggest non-members.

 

The report also only included CLIA member newbuilds, as I believe Viking have more ships on order that all Carnival brands combined.

 

When discussing alternative fuels it mentioned only 15% of newbuilts will have battery storage and/or fuel cell capability. Not a great percentage, since most CLIA members are still introducing LNG, which burns cleaner, but still requires small amounts of diesel for combustion.

 

Viking has 8 ships on order and all have hydrogen fuel cell technology included. Norwegian companies are also investing heavily in SOLAR and hydrogen, so at least this part of the report is not representative of the industry as a whole.

[Mary229]

10 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

 

CLIA is mostly the cruise lines serving the North American market. Doesn't include a number of European Lines with Viking, Hurtigruten, Ambassador, Fred Olsen just some that aren't members. Viking as a ocean, river and expedition cruise line are the biggest non-members.

 

The report also only included CLIA member newbuilds, as I believe Viking have more ships on order that all Carnival brands combined.

 

When discussing alternative fuels it mentioned only 15% of newbuilts will have battery storage and/or fuel cell capability. Not a great percentage, since most CLIA members are still introducing LNG, which burns cleaner, but still requires small amounts of diesel for combustion.

 

Viking has 8 ships on order and all have hydrogen fuel cell technology included. Norwegian companies are also investing heavily in SOLAR and hydrogen, so at least this part of the report is not representative of the industry as a whole.

Here is Viking.  https://www.vikingline.com/globalassets/documents/market_specific/corporate/investors/financial-reports/pressrelease-220218-year-end-report.pdf
 

if you want to add their sales and capacities everything is there to do so. Of course being a private company those are not publicly audited results.  They do not discuss their demographics.   I don’t think it will move the needle. 

[Heidi13]

4 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Here is Viking.  https://www.vikingline.com/globalassets/documents/market_specific/corporate/investors/financial-reports/pressrelease-220218-year-end-report.pdf
 

if you want to add their sales and capacities everything is there to do so. Of course being a private company those are not publicly audited results.  They do not discuss their demographics.   I don’t think it will move the needle. 

 

Sorry, wrong company.

 

Viking Line is a Ro/Pax company (aka 'ferry") based in Finland that operates ferries in the Baltic. Totally different company from Viking Cruises. As you correctly stated Viking Cruises, is a private company that does not publish financial results. BTW - this is a common mistake made by those that haven't worked in the industry and I also note that Viking Lifesaving Equipment is also a different company, as they are based in Denmark. Viking Cruises are a Norwegian Company, with a Head Office in Switzerland.

 

Viking is the largest operator on rivers and by 2030 will have the most operational ocean ships behind only Carnival and Royal Caribbean. When combining river, ocean and expedition fleets, I believe Viking are already the largest number of pax vessel in the World.

 

How can the needle not move, when the World's largest ship owner, by number of ships, is not a member of the CLIA club.

[Mary229]

8 hours ago, Heidi13 said:

 

Sorry, wrong company.

 

Viking Line is a Ro/Pax company (aka 'ferry") based in Finland that operates ferries in the Baltic. Totally different company from Viking Cruises. As you correctly stated Viking Cruises, is a private company that does not publish financial results. BTW - this is a common mistake made by those that haven't worked in the industry and I also note that Viking Lifesaving Equipment is also a different company, as they are based in Denmark. Viking Cruises are a Norwegian Company, with a Head Office in Switzerland.

 

Viking is the largest operator on rivers and by 2030 will have the most operational ocean ships behind only Carnival and Royal Caribbean. When combining river, ocean and expedition fleets, I believe Viking are already the largest number of pax vessel in the World.

 

How can the needle not move, when the World's largest ship owner, by number of ships, is not a member of the CLIA club.

Here it is 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viking_(cruise_line)

 

https://www.datanyze.com/companies/viking-cruises/120471635
 

The needle won’t  move for two reasons - trends are the same (high demand and aging down) and their revenue and passenger traffic once averaged is suppressed and perhaps significant is not impactful

[Heidi13]

40 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

Here it is 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viking_(cruise_line)

 

https://www.datanyze.com/companies/viking-cruises/120471635
 

The needle won’t  move for two reasons - trends are the same (high demand and aging down) and their revenue and passenger traffic once averaged is suppressed and perhaps significant is not impactful

 

You got the correct company this time.

 

This industry is more than revenue and pax traffic. The CLIA club are so far behind on propulsion technology, they are still building LNG ships. Hurtigruten have a zero emission ship planned to be operational by 2030 and Viking will have 8 hydrogen fuel cell ships operational by 2030.

 

The document also omits any mention of how the CLIA club is planning to address the upcoming closures in some Norwegian fjords. Non CLIA owners are addressing these issues with new ships already on order. As per the report, the CLIA club is working on LNG and shore-power, hardly leading edge technology, as my last ship had shore-power capability since it was built in the 1990's and she was changed to LNG about 12 yrs ago. CLIA would like you to think they are switching to LNG for the environment. Yes, it does burn cleaner, but still requires diesel for combustion, so the real reason for switching to LNG is that it is much cheaper. I won't quote numbers, but my last ship's bunker bill reduced significantly when switched to dual fuel.

 

Any reputable report, especially in this industry, would also include a SWOT Analysis, which was conspicuous by its absence. In addition to propulsion and emissions, they make no mention how they will address the bio-fouling issues in New Zealand.

 

Sorry, but based on my experience in the industry, this document is certainly not a comprehensive report on the overall cruise industry, it is little more than a glossy, sales brochure for members of the CLIA Club. Doesn't address any of the major issues impacting cruise lines in the next 5 - 8 years. Rather than knowing how the average age of pax is changing, I am more interested in how they are addressing their tonnage to meet the ever increasing restrictions.

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, Heidi13 said:

Rather than knowing how the average age of pax is changing, I am more interested in how they are addressing their tonnage to meet the ever increasing restrictions.

I especially like the 4 pages devoted to "sustainable" tourism, when more and more  cities around the world are banning large cruise ships.  Apparently, the cruise lines are working with the wrong groups in those cities.

 

And, who can forget Carnival Corp's near complete disregard for their environmental stewardship, even in the face of court cases.  But, CLIA still spouts environmental stewardship.

 

They tout the fact that all new build ships will have shore power capability, yet they also admit that in the next 5 years, only 3% of cruise ports will support this.  And, note that the busiest cruise ports in the world, those in south Florida, are conspicuously absent from their list of current shore power facilities, showing how far behind they are.

 

They brag about 100% of new ships having Advanced Waste Water Treatment systems.  Every single NCL ship had these installed by the 2000's.  Hardly new technology, why has it taken so long?

 

88% of new builds that are not LNG capable, are being fitted with exhaust scrubbers.  This is another 20 year old technology, why aren't 100% of all new builds being outfitted with this?   Are they closed loop scrubbers, or open loop which dump the pollutants into the sea instead of the air?  What studies on the effects of open loop scrubbers have CLIA members sponsored?

 

For LNG powered ships, does the CLIA data on GHG reduction apply only to the fuel burned on the ship, or is it using the figure for "life cycle" (wellhead to combustion), which I doubt, as "methane slip" (the amount of raw methane released during the LNG "life cycle") is a known problem, and methane is 200 times more damaging as a GHG than CO2.

 

And what about the debt load the cruise lines have?  On another thread, someone asked why Carnival shares are selling so low, when things like this CLIA presentation, and Carnival's quarterly reports are so glowing?  Because Carnival is using passenger deposits to pay down their debt, hoping they won't have another situation where they have to refund massive amounts of deposits.

[JRG]

2 hours ago, Heidi13 said:

Any reputable report, especially in this industry, would also include a SWOT Analysis, which was conspicuous by its absence. In addition to propulsion and emissions, they make no mention how they will address the bio-fouling issues in New Zealand.

 

Incorrect.  This is a State of the Industry Report.  It is not a Strategic Analysis or a Strategic Plan and therefore no SWOT analysis is required.  

 

This report is a great equalizer for readers who want to really understand what is going on in the cruising world,  that's all folks.

 

Do you @Heidi13have any links to back up your statement?

 

Do you have an opinion on why the US Shipbuilding has a big GooseEgg in the column for relative shipbuilding that you can back up with proof.  The little guys that you referred to are like @Mary229 said,  immaterial.

 

(I think Lucy has some explaining to do)