Effects of Red Sea troubles

[Jamesv281117]

Hi

I'm just wondering if there's any thoughts on what might happen to schedules if Resilient Lady is unable to complete it's Dubai to Athens sailing as planned? Are there any clues from what other companies are doing as I can't see it being safe to travel through the Red Sea when it's due in April. 

[jon81uk]

1 hour ago, Jamesv281117 said:

Hi

I'm just wondering if there's any thoughts on what might happen to schedules if Resilient Lady is unable to complete it's Dubai to Athens sailing as planned? Are there any clues from what other companies are doing as I can't see it being safe to travel through the Red Sea when it's due in April. 

A friend has had a cruise on another line cancelled in April as they won’t have the ship back in Europe in time due to the issues. But no idea what VV is planning.

[Jamesv281117]

Interesting just wondering if there were any clues around as it's not that far away in terms of planning in the grand scheme of things. I was thinking the 10 day Greece and Croatia on 9th May could be the one to be scrapped if the ship has to take the long route back to Europe. It doesn't seem to be on sale but don't know if that's anything new.

[Perigem]

I'm booked on the Dubai-Athens leg and would dearly love for them to make a bloody decision soon as I booked my pre and post flights and hotels months ago. I'm not sure if my insurance would cover it as it's an act of war but I may be able to cancel sooner and get at least some money back for them. It's kind of worrying that other cruise lines have made a decision and VV seem to be sitting back hoping for the best?

[aqlollipop]

I'm on the 10 day Greece & Croatia, I think it's been sold out for a while, in any case it hasn't been available for quite some time (pre-dating the current troubles). I am also hoping they figure out what they are doing sooner rather than later, just for my peace of mind. I'll be disappointed if it ends up cancelled but I'm pretty sure I can make some lemonade out of lemons regardless.

[Jamesv281117]

I think they need to soon because of the knock on effects for everyone of pre-booked flights and accomodation and like I say I don't see a realistic situation where resilient lady is sailing the original route from Dubai to Athens 

[Lustate]

Actually, I am quite curious on this as a challenge to beat. So, if the Suez Canal / Red Sea is not a route ships can use due to increased risks, where would the ship reroute via?

[Jamesv281117]

37 minutes ago, Lustate said:

Actually, I am quite curious on this as a challenge to beat. So, if the Suez Canal / Red Sea is not a route ships can use due to increased risks, where would the ship reroute via?

Ships have been having to go all the way around Africa recently - a very frustrating and long diversion! 

[Lustate]

2 minutes ago, Jamesv281117 said:

Ships have been having to go all the way around Africa recently - a very frustrating and long diversion! 

 

so compared to the canal, how many times would that add?

[Jamesv281117]

3 minutes ago, Lustate said:

 

so compared to the canal, how many times would that add?

Read an article this week saying it can add 10 days to the travel time but I guess this depends on the ship and any stops it's making enroute. If Virgin leaves Dubai as scheduled this is why I think the 10 day Greece/Croatia cruise will be vulnerable. 

 

Either way something will have to give with the itineraries which is why I think a decision needs making sooner rather than later for planning.

[Lustate]

39 minutes ago, Jamesv281117 said:

Read an article this week saying it can add 10 days to the travel time but I guess this depends on the ship and any stops it's making enroute. If Virgin leaves Dubai as scheduled this is why I think the 10 day Greece/Croatia cruise will be vulnerable. 

 

Either way something will have to give with the itineraries which is why I think a decision needs making sooner rather than later for planning.

 

Unless, of course, VV pull it out of the hat, cancel Dubai to Athens, and launch Brilliant Lady with a TRF of the crew as well? Offer people credit for the flights, and do a trip around the med for the same number of nights, finishing in Athens on the previously agreed date?

[giraffic]

1 hour ago, Lustate said:

 

Unless, of course, VV pull it out of the hat, cancel Dubai to Athens, and launch Brilliant Lady with a TRF of the crew as well? Offer people credit for the flights, and do a trip around the med for the same number of nights, finishing in Athens on the previously agreed date?

 

As someone who is also booked on the Greece and Croatia cruise, this had been my hope. But based on this: https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/ship-operations/when-brilliant-lady-joining-virgin-voyages-it-will-be-while it doesn't seem like Brilliant will be doing anything for a while.

 

At this point I'm working under the assumption that my cruise will not be going ahead as planned and I'm booking (fully refundable) hotels instead. I'm slightly frustrated with the "wait and see" approach, but VV isn't the only line who is doing that.

[cantgetin]

4 hours ago, Lustate said:

 

so compared to the canal, how many times would that add?

According to newscasts, it adds 8000 miles!

[trippingpara]

I wonder if they would cancel the Singapore to Dubai leg as well and sail it straight across the Indian Ocean towards South Africa instead of sailing it north to Dubai and then backtracking south along East Africa.  Would that give them enough time to make the extended run to the Med without impacting any of the Med cruises?

 

I hear that there is a lot of talk in Israel on starting to scale down the war in Gaza.  I wonder if that would be enough to make the Houthis simmer down some or if they would continue until Israel completely left Gaza which probably won't happen for quite some time.

[Jamesv281117]

50 minutes ago, trippingpara said:

I wonder if they would cancel the Singapore to Dubai leg as well and sail it straight across the Indian Ocean towards South Africa instead of sailing it north to Dubai and then backtracking south along East Africa.  Would that give them enough time to make the extended run to the Med without impacting any of the Med cruises?

 

I hear that there is a lot of talk in Israel on starting to scale down the war in Gaza.  I wonder if that would be enough to make the Houthis simmer down some or if they would continue until Israel completely left Gaza which probably won't happen for quite some time.

They could have any number of ideas of making it work which could include a new itinerary for people to stay on around Africa, whatever way I think it would feel dodgy sailing that route and people would feel uncomfortable unless it is sure things are suddenly looking better. What makes this more challenging is it's not just an itinerary change as it has big impact on length of sailing.

[CruisingWalter]

On 1/20/2024 at 8:58 AM, Jamesv281117 said:

Hi

I'm just wondering if there's any thoughts on what might happen to schedules if Resilient Lady is unable to complete it's Dubai to Athens sailing as planned? Are there any clues from what other companies are doing as I can't see it being safe to travel through the Red Sea when it's due in April. 

 

The situation is so fluid there that's probably why they have not made any announcements yet. With the recent attack on a US Navy ship, that makes the situation even more perilous. As others have mentioned, making changes to the itinerary has ripple effects on new ports that have to be sourced and possibly a longer cruise to avoid that area. It appears that most cruise lines are wisely avoiding that area for now. 

[CruisingWalter]

On 1/22/2024 at 1:08 PM, Jamesv281117 said:

They could have any number of ideas of making it work which could include a new itinerary for people to stay on around Africa,

 

Going around Africa is a HUGE change that requires so much to make that happen with infrastructure and port availability. That would not be "hey we're going to make a longer itinerary and not charge you anything for it." That would involve a big price increase to cover the costs for the added time to go around Africa, which is exactly what the freight companies are doing. Lots of additional fuel required and additional ports requires to make that journey. It's not an easy decision and I would not want to be at the center of that logistical nightmare for all the cruise lines.

Edited January 26 by CruisingWalter

[CruisingWalter]

On 1/22/2024 at 6:29 AM, Lustate said:

 

Unless, of course, VV pull it out of the hat, cancel Dubai to Athens, and launch Brilliant Lady with a TRF of the crew as well? Offer people credit for the flights, and do a trip around the med for the same number of nights, finishing in Athens on the previously agreed date?

 

The last we saw any mention of Brilliant Lady from VV it was sitting on a calendar in the fourth quarter of 2025. No dates, just a big red "Brilliant Lady" in the fourth quarter of 2025. Reports I've seen lately says they have yet to take delivery of the ship. It's basically ready to go, just VV is not taking delivery of it at this time. And all mention of it has ceased from the VV side as if they want everyone to forget about it for the time being and concentrate on the current three ships. 

[Tolkmit]

Sadly, it looks increasingly unlikely the ship will be going through the Suez.

 

If it doesn't, I think the most likely outcome is them cancelling Dubai to Athens, along with whichever other cancellation will cost them the least (Singapore to Dubai before or the round trip from Athens after, or possibly both). And then just sailing the ship without passengers around Africa.

 

They just aren't going to sell many tickets for a month long cruise with only a couple months notice. They probably lose less money sailing empty. No passengers would mean skipping all of the expense of figuring out port logistics for many of the stops around Africa. No figuring out excursions, can go a lot further without re-supplying food, limit the stops to ones necessary for fuel.

[windsor08]

Resilient Lady journeys from Europe to Australia again around October. If the problem persists another upheaval to schedules is necessary then too. Cunard sails annually to Australia via South Africa,, so it is feasible, but VV doesn't have much time to make a decision and find passengers too make it viable.

[CrazyTrain2]

No chance this hurricane in the Red Sea calms down by April.  It's up to you whether you want to seek safe harbor on another cruise or ride it out to see where the ship ends up.

[FFMilesJunkie]

Should see an announcement in the next few days.   Carnival corp cancelled a bunch of cruises yesterday.  I'm hoping they keep the cruise to Singapore.  I think they might be able to sail from Singapore to Athens in 28 days going around Africa.  They would just need to make a few technical stops for fuel and supplies. It would be nice if they could get away with just cancelling 2 out of the 3 transit cruises from Oz to Athens, but probably more likely will be cancelling all 3. Probably any way you slice it, 3 voyages will be affected one way or another by this reroute.  

[onechaiguy]

I am on the May 9 voyage out of Athens, so selfishly I would not like to be canceled, but whatever VV decides to do to keep everyone safe, I hope they make a decision soon so that everyone can make alternate plans as needed! 

[Jamesv281117]

2 hours ago, onechaiguy said:

I am on the May 9 voyage out of Athens, so selfishly I would not like to be canceled, but whatever VV decides to do to keep everyone safe, I hope they make a decision soon so that everyone can make alternate plans as needed! 

Definitely agree on that it needs to be soon, some of the repositioning ports are quite far flung so people are going to be eager to know what to do with flights etc.

 

Someone at virgin voyages said today they haven't made any changes to the repositioning voyages and are assessing but surely they must be deciding behind the scenes.

[Perigem]

It feels like they're playing chicken with us, trying to get us to cancel first. There's no way we're going through the red sea, even just from an insurance point of view, so unless they're sailing to Dubai then putting the boat on wheels and going cross country just cancel/modify the trip and tell people. At this point I've lost my flight to Dubai money and my flight home money is like my cruise money back so I can actually have a holiday this year.