No algorithm expert but help me understand

[sadiwest]

So I get a RU email and we currently have an inside cabin via a casino offer.  I get 5-6 categories offered which (I think) includes two other insides (Promenade view and spacious), a couple OV (mmm I think spacious, ultra spacious and/or panoramic) and possibly a balcony.  Forgive my memory I'm old. 

 

I check the availability on the cruise and not only is it the most expensive starting average (date wise), but all balconies are sold out.  To boot, I think the lowest starting bid (it's a 5 nt cruise to BDA) is $25? 

 

Almost none of that makes sense to me. Not only am I not expecting to win any of them, but I wonder if the algorithm considers originally paid vs current pricing etc etc for the passenger.    I have to believe it's offered to everyone in the same category regardless of what was originally paid.

 

No, I don't expect anyone to know for sure, but I'd like to hear your theories.  

Edited April 16 by sadiwest
Can't type or spell

[reallyitsmema]

They let you bid on cabins better than yours and usually give four or five options.  They will process the Royal Up bids for suites first, likely moving most from balconies, that will then open up balconies to be awarded to those who had insides or ocean views.

[joepeka]

In addition to Mema's explanation above, without know how far out your cruise is, the web site won't show you all the truly available cabins in any category. There will be TA holds which may be returned about 45-60 days out plus, I've never seen the RCI web site show you more than about 10 cabins as available. If it's showing none available, I would be very skeptical at this point. We got an RU offer for all the suite categories but in checking availability on the web site, only one of the five suite categories were showing available but yet we could bid on all five. 

Edited April 16 by joepeka

[firefly333]

A 3rd party, not royal directly, handles royal up. Its driven by what categories are on your ship, not what is available. They dont know and why should they care, they are doing what they are supposed. No one knows what it would take to win, and unless someone cancels no you cant get a sold out category unless they too royaled up and their cabin is now vacant. 

 

Not sure why people ask questions they know no one here knows the algorithms or how they are determined. Ask something there is a answer for, not why royal does something that is impossible to know. I guess this is just musings not a serious question.

[sadiwest]

27 minutes ago, joepeka said:

In addition to Mema's explanation above, without know how far out your cruise is, the web site won't show you all the truly available cabins in any category. There will be TA holds which may be returned about 45-60 days out plus, I've never seen the RCI web site show you more than about 10 cabins as available. If it's showing none available, I would be very skeptical at this point. We got an RU offer for all the suite categories but in checking availability on the web site, only one of the five suite categories were showing available but yet we could bid on all five. 

I want to say we're just prior to the 60 day mark. 

[sadiwest]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

Not sure why people ask questions they know no one here knows the algorithms or how they are determined. Ask something there is a answer for, not why royal does something that is impossible to know. I guess this is just musings not a serious question.

It's a serious question in that I'm genuinely curious how it works.  It's musings in that I'm just interested in hearing how it might work. There's no way to know who is reading this.....    if someone actually knows or not. 

 

No one has to answer but I appreciate hearing everyone's thoughts. 

[Jetdriver787]

The main thing to understand is that it has nothing at all to do with availability.  It isn’t run by Royal Caribbean. It is run by a company called “Plusgrade.” They operate similar schemes for a whole spectrum of cruise lines, airlines, hotels, etc. The purpose is to maximise ancillary revenues for the subscribing companies.

 

The programme does two major things.  It provides capacity smoothing. Where a major category isn’t selling as well as it is projected to do at various junctures, it allows the subscribing companies to pull capacity into a higher category with a promised level of committed payment (your bid) attached to it. This opens up the often easier to sell lower categories. It also serves to balance the projected sales levels in order to achieve higher sales prices for the now (less plentiful) remaining capacity. 
 

The second thing is does is to provide a commited bid for any unsold or returned inventory at a point when it is otherwise unlikely to sell or resell. Unlike a competition or auction, there doesn’t have to be (and usually isn’t) any “prize” on offer. But the invitation to bid is only on a “possibility” that requires no payment, only a binding commitment, should availability actually arise at a future date. 

[sadiwest]

3 minutes ago, Jetdriver787 said:

The main thing to understand is that it has nothing at all to do with availability.  It isn’t run by Royal Caribbean. It is run by a company called “Plusgrade.” They operate similar schemes for a whole spectrum of cruise lines, airlines, hotels, etc. The purpose is to maximise ancillary revenues for the subscribing companies.

 

The programme does two major things.  It provides capacity smoothing. Where a major category isn’t selling as well as it is projected to do at various junctures, it allows the subscribing companies to pull capacity into a higher category with a promised level of committed payment (your bid) attached to it. This opens up the often easier to sell lower categories. It also serves to balance the projected sales levels in order to achieve higher sales prices for the now (less plentiful) remaining capacity. 
 

The second thing is does is to provide a commited bid for any unsold or returned inventory at a point when it is otherwise unlikely to sell or resell. Unlike a competition or auction, there doesn’t have to be (and usually isn’t) any “prize” on offer. But the invitation to bid is only on a “possibility” that requires no payment, only a binding commitment, should availability actually arise at a future date. 

That is, by far, the best explanation I've ever read.  It assumes at least someone will want an upgrade "deal", but at what cost to having this third party handle it?  What has to happen to make it worthwhile to the customer (RCCL in this case)?....just to have all cabins filled even at zero cabin cost? That is what I'm assuming as people spend once on board but an empty cabin does them zero good. 

[joepeka]

12 minutes ago, sadiwest said:

I want to say we're just prior to the 60 day mark. 

So I would say that you're within final payment date so the TA's likely would have already returned their unsold inventory.

[akcruz]

Two things, first always look at the current price if cabins are available.  It is often cheaper to upgrade than wait for royal up to do its thing.

 

Second, there are thoughts that royal is also using the information from the bids to see how much people are willing to pay for certain types of cabins.  

 

As others have said nobody here knows for sure, it's all just speculation.

[Mum2Mercury]

1 hour ago, sadiwest said:

No, I don't expect anyone to know for sure, but I'd like to hear your theories.  

Yeah, none of us know /understand the whole story, but I THINK they want to set it up like dominos -- no, not pizza.  

 

You're in an Inside. 

The Jones are in an Oceanview. 

The Smiths are in a Balcony.  

 

What they want Royal Up to do is to bump you to the Oceanview, the Jones to a Balcony and the Smiths to a Suite.  Three families feel good about moving up a category, and Royal pockets more money.  You see where the "currently unavailable rooms" came from.  

 

It's also possible that 

- TAs are holding some rooms, which they will release at whatever point. 

- Some passengers will "drop out" for whatever reason before final payment. 

[mil76]

They prioritize filling all the staterooms, not just taking the highest bid on a specific category.  A few years ago we did a minimum bid on a JS, and another bid much higher than minimum for a GS.  We figured the higher bid would get us prioritized for the GS and the JS would be a fallback.  Another poster on here only did a minimum bid on a GS.  He ended up with the GS, and we got the JS.  😡

[cruiseboy89130]

5 hours ago, joepeka said:

There will be TA holds which may be returned about 45-60 days out

Try 120 to 150 days out!

[Biker19]

7 hours ago, sadiwest said:

.    if someone actually knows or not. 

That someone wouldn’t tell you and very unlikely they would frequent CC. 

[Wanna Be Retired]

I find it funny that I have a cruise booked with the cabin I want.  I get the Royal Up offer that I don’t want to participate in because I want to stay in my cabin.  The number of emails I get trying to get me to bid is ridiculous!  I delete them but after several hours I get the email again!

[Jetdriver787]

3 minutes ago, Wanna Be Retired said:

I find it funny that I have a cruise booked with the cabin I want.  I get the Royal Up offer that I don’t want to participate in because I want to stay in my cabin.  The number of emails I get trying to get me to bid is ridiculous!  I delete them but after several hours I get the email again!

Ignore them or change your marketing preferences.

[Wanna Be Retired]

1 hour ago, Jetdriver787 said:

Ignore them or change your marketing preferences.

I just delete them, but I can see how someone can think they have a really good shot at getting a Royal Up.  I just find it kind of funny.

[sadiwest]

1 hour ago, Wanna Be Retired said:

I just delete them, but I can see how someone can think they have a really good shot at getting a Royal Up.  I just find it kind of funny.

I always pick my own cabin.   In all cases it'd be nice but not necessary or I'd pay for the cabin up front. 

 

 

[sadiwest]

6 hours ago, Biker19 said:

That someone wouldn’t tell you and very unlikely they would frequent CC. 

I have for the most part enjoyed the replies and "discussion " about this topic, even if it's all speculation.  

[joepeka]

11 hours ago, cruiseboy89130 said:

Try 120 to 150 days out!

Could well be. I think I've always heard it's pretty much tied to final payment date for the sailing but perhaps that has changed.