euro exchange rate forecast

[Emma1]

Looking at different websites it seems that the forecast is that the euro value is going back up. Is anyone exchangind dollars now for next year? We have a med cruise booked for July 2011 and I am wondering if I should start exchanging money now - it's expensive as it is and if the rate goes back up - it won't leave us much spending money. Any thoughts?

[-Lew-]

I don't believe anyone can give you a definitive answer on that.

 

A few months ago when you could buy €1,00 for $1.20, did anything think that was the right time to buy? Many of the pundits on TV thought the euro would fall to below $1.00. Little did they know that it would rebound to $1.40!

 

It's a crap shoot at best. The best advice would be to dollar cost average your purchase of euros by buy converting a fixed amount of US dollars monthly until your trip.

 

Lew

[Hlitner]

We can take a very educated guess that the Euro will continue to gain against the dollar for the foreseeable future. The dollar would have been even weaker except that the crisis in Greece temporarily gave the dollar a boost. Now that the EU has stabilized that situation the dollar is back on its down trend. As long as the current administration spends money we do not have, and the Federal Reserve buys back US securities by simply printing more money (this means more deficit) the dollar will continue its plunge.

 

Hank

[riffatsea]

Remember that the weak dollar(lower value against the euro) is GOOD for business which is why the stock market goes up when the dollar weakens.

UNfortunately the weak dollar is bad for USA tourists. I would not buy euros now for next year! It is too volatile. You don't buy something when it is up. Who can plan now for next year??

IF a stock was up , it would not be the time to buy. The time to buy is when it is lowER.

[cruisemom42]

If you are concerned about having enough money, I'd focus on ways to cut back your spending now and put extra dollars into savings for your cruise rather than trying to buy euros now. Why? Because all euros you can purchase in the US will come with a healthy markup, either in the form of fees or in the exchange rate given (always compare what a bank offers with the "official" daily exchange rate, which is easy to locate using Google).

 

Seriously, cutting out one dinner out per week, using the library for books rather than purchasing them, or giving up Starbucks can all result in a good little amount of cash being put aside for spending on vacation by next July.

[Earl Rosebery]

We can take a very educated guess that the Euro will continue to gain against the dollar for the foreseeable future. The dollar would have been even weaker except that the crisis in Greece temporarily gave the dollar a boost. Now that the EU has stabilized that situation the dollar is back on its down trend. As long as the current administration spends money we do not have, and the Federal Reserve buys back US securities by simply printing more money (this means more deficit) the dollar will continue its plunge.

 

Hank

 

Hank is probably right but who can say. Anything can change between now and then. Buy 25% now. 25% in 4 months and the rest after you get there. Have fun.

[D4]

Also, do you really want to bring a huge amount of cash (euros) with you? If they are lost or stolen, then you're out everything.

 

I recommend leaving the US with enough euros to get you through at least the first day in Europe.

[chipmaster]

FWIW playing currency is like throwing darts and picking stocks. Monkeys will likely do better than any person. Anyone who knows is a billionaire.

 

The only reason you need thousands of euros is if you are going to doing private tours. Things like airfare, tips, ship excursion will likely all be in USD. As another person said save a few pennies, skip the vending machine, starbucks etc. will more than likely cover any fluctuation in the dollar to euro. Its already bad.. but with the Fed's new annoucment I could see another 10% drop easily.

 

Looking at different websites it seems that the forecast is that the euro value is going back up. Is anyone exchangind dollars now for next year? We have a med cruise booked for July 2011 and I am wondering if I should start exchanging money now - it's expensive as it is and if the rate goes back up - it won't leave us much spending money. Any thoughts?

[Gracie115]

Hank is probably right but who can say. Anything can change between now and then. Buy 25% now. 25% in 4 months and the rest after you get there. Have fun.

 

 

That's our plan!

[kestrel]

Euro will probably stay strong :(

 

However, since you are taking a cruise, I don't think you need to worry too much re. the exchange rate. Most expensive items of your trip such as cruise and plane tickets will be paid in USD and/or with credit cards. Also, based on my experience, ATM gives best exchange rate. If you plan to exchange money with banks in the US in advance, you need to factor in less favorable exchange rate and/or extra fees. Besides, as some posters have already mentioned, you probably don't want to carry a lot of cash with you.

[copman]

We can take a very educated guess that the Euro will continue to gain against the dollar for the foreseeable future. The dollar would have been even weaker except that the crisis in Greece temporarily gave the dollar a boost. Now that the EU has stabilized that situation the dollar is back on its down trend. As long as the current administration spends money we do not have, and the Federal Reserve buys back US securities by simply printing more money (this means more deficit) the dollar will continue its plunge.

 

Hank

 

 

Plus the newly elected house is wanting to raise the debt ceiling, which will certianly affect the price of the dollar against foreign currency.

[iancal]

We have the same issue. The best advice that we have is that the US dollar will continue to weaken, particularly with the latest Fed announcements.

[rsquare]

Also, based on my experience, ATM gives best exchange rate. If you plan to exchange money with banks in the US in advance, you need to factor in less favorable exchange rate and/or extra fees. Besides, as some posters have already mentioned, you probably don't want to carry a lot of cash with you.

 

We've always travelled with at least US$50 in local currency for newspapers, snacks, cabs and spur-of-the-moment purchases. On our recent Baltic cruise, where almost every country has its own currency, friends convinced us not to get foreign currency in advance, but to use ATMs. Worked pretty well, although we had to walk two blocks away from our Gamla Stan destination to get to a Stockholm ATM and then double back.

 

But when we got to Copenhagen, the CC Port Review led us to believe that there is an ATM at Langelinie ("The Copenhagen Information Center is located here and also can offer money changing services (and ATMs)."). This is not true. You can get a city bus, which will take Danish Kronor or Euros, or a HO-HO bus which will take those two currencies plus US dollars and, sometimes, credit cards (but not the day we were there - the machine was broken). So we wound up spending lots of US dollars on the HO-HO and had to ride past Amelienborg Palace and the Resistance Museum in order to get to Kongens Nytorv where the banks and ATMs are. Since the HO-HO only goes in one direction (clockwise) we would have to do the whole 1-hour circuit to get back to Amelienborg, than another 1-hour ride (or quite a long walk) to get back to Langelinie Pier. We never got to see Amelienborg.

 

So yes, in principle you can get local currency at a good rate at ATMs. Nevertheless, we'll never travel again without at least US$50 in local currency in our pockets as we step off the boat.

[hkto]

As previous posters noted it's hard to predict where the rate will be. $ can't slide forever as goods from Euro zone become too costly to export and ECB may intervene. My educated guess 1.40 to 1.60 for near future.

 

But since the majority of cruising expenses (at least on American lines like NCL, RCL, etc) is paid in $ the amount of cash Euros needed should not be that significant compared to the total cost of the trip. For cruisers who choose not to purchase ship tours in $ large portion may go for private excursions that are to be paid in Euro. People who do their own touring using public transit or car will likely need even less euros. Costa and MSC is another story as all ship expenses are in Euro.

 

Also statement "Because all euros you can purchase in the US will come with a healthy markup, either in the form of fees or in the exchange rate given" is probably not entirely correct. Big cities have independent currency exchanges who usually change much less than big banks or airport exchanges (there are at least 4 of them in 5 min drive from my house in Toronto). Good place to check rate is http://www.oanda.com/currency/converter/ If you get rate within 1-2% above the interbank rate then it's compatible to ATM rate you'll get in Europe.

[iancal]

We always use one of the three currency exchange offices near us. Not only do we get much better rates but we get a much better selection of denominations. On our last trip, we got a significantly better rate for selling Kunas in Calgary than we did anywhere we tried in Europe. Last time I sold USD, about 5K, I ended up with $145 more dollars from the exchange than what my bank was going to give me. Not bad for walking an extra 1/2 block.

[kestrel]

We've always travelled with at least US$50 in local currency for newspapers, snacks, cabs and spur-of-the-moment purchases. On our recent Baltic cruise, where almost every country has its own currency, friends convinced us not to get foreign currency in advance, but to use ATMs. Worked pretty well, although we had to walk two blocks away from our Gamla Stan destination to get to a Stockholm ATM and then double back.

 

But when we got to Copenhagen, the CC Port Review led us to believe that there is an ATM at Langelinie ("The Copenhagen Information Center is located here and also can offer money changing services (and ATMs)."). This is not true. You can get a city bus, which will take Danish Kronor or Euros, or a HO-HO bus which will take those two currencies plus US dollars and, sometimes, credit cards (but not the day we were there - the machine was broken). So we wound up spending lots of US dollars on the HO-HO and had to ride past Amelienborg Palace and the Resistance Museum in order to get to Kongens Nytorv where the banks and ATMs are. Since the HO-HO only goes in one direction (clockwise) we would have to do the whole 1-hour circuit to get back to Amelienborg, than another 1-hour ride (or quite a long walk) to get back to Langelinie Pier. We never got to see Amelienborg.

 

So yes, in principle you can get local currency at a good rate at ATMs. Nevertheless, we'll never travel again without at least US$50 in local currency in our pockets as we step off the boat.

 

I know what you meant. We had difficulty finding ATM in some of the Baltic ports too. However, the OP is going on a Med cruise. It's most likely they will fly to an airport in an Euro country. I've never had problem finding ATM in a major airport. Med ports in France, Spain, Italy and Greece all use Euro. You can save unused Euro for next ports. It is very different from Baltic ports that you need to use different currencies.

[samavarcruiser]

Don't buy euros now, wait and use ATM once in europe, they are allover.

[hubofhockey]

Don't buy euros now, wait and use ATM once in europe, they are allover.

 

Good advice and more importantly, nobody knows if the price will be up tomorrow, let alone next summer. It is all guesswork at this point. When OP posted this thread, prices were going up. Now they are going down. I booked a cruise when the rate was close to $1.50 and the rate was down to $1.19 the week before our cruise began. It was $1.29 the day our flight returned home. The $50 to $100 here or there is not that big of a deal. For next summer, I booked my flights early and one I paid in euros. I booked and paid early, not because of the price of euros, but because of the good price of the flights. Acquiring euros in the US is expensive. If I really knew euros were going to cost more, I'd get some. But nobody knows.

[riffatsea]

It sounds like Canada is different than the USA when it comes to currency exchange. The only one I know of here in San Diego is Forex which has a MUCH worse rate than my bank!!!

[hkto]

It sounds like Canada is different than the USA when it comes to currency exchange. The only one I know of here in San Diego is Forex which has a MUCH worse rate than my bank!!!

 

Can't vouch for quality of this link; it returns 14 hits. Major players like Travelex and Thomas Cook are not competitive (at least here in Canada)

http://www.superpages.com/yellowpages/C-Foreign+Currency+Exchange+%26+Brokers/S-CA/T-San+Diego/

[LPLRN]

When using ATM machines are you using a debit card or cc, and are they specific to particular bank?

[hkto]

When using ATM machines are you using a debit card or cc, and are they specific to particular bank?

 

Debit cards are specific to a network not a bank (mine is on PLUS, it's a logo on the back on the card). Your bank charges fixed fee on F/X ATM transactions regardless of withdrawal amount (usually $5 ballpark). CC will also work but will charge you higher F/X rate (compared to debit). Also CC consider it a cash advance and will charge interest immediately. My CC is close to 20% so I would never use them in ATM machines (unless it's a very small amount)

[D&N LUV 2 TRAVEL]

If you are doing a pre or post cruise stay try to book your rooms in your country's currency. We are staying post cruise in Venice and Expedia is charging us the equivalent of 1.27 E which is a 13 % savings where we are at now with the Euro.

This along with dollar cost avergaging is the way to go IMHO.

[Ephraim]

If you want to see how the pros are betting on the exchange, see http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx.html for the futures market. Remember that there is also a certain amount of hedging/premium built in.... someone has to make money on the bet.

 

The last sale on June 2011 was 1.36140 which to me doesn't suggest much movement.

[GlendaleCruiser]

I wouldn't buy smaller quantities over and over because my bank passes on the Fed ex charge for getting them ($7.50) for each transaction. I paid $1.49 last year so when it was around $1.29 I ordered what I wanted in small denominations. (My bank has two choices: large denomination or small).

 

I intend to save some back for incidentals on the day post cruise but will spend the majority of them toward my Sail & Sign account last day.