NCL Business Concept/Policies..Reference Stock

[roger001]

Somebody must be happy with the direction NCL is proceeding. Just yesterday alone, NCL stock closed up $2.73 (or 4.57%) for the day. It has doubled in value in the last 9 months or so. These numbers and customers (stock holders) are NCL's first and primary concern. So if NCL is loosing previous guest with recent change, it isn't hurting the business model at all. No....I was not one who bought NCL at $30....or at all actually......shucks!

[bonvoyagie]

I seems that when businesses start cutting back - ie belt tightening - the stock market reacts with an up tick in the stock price.

 

It does not make sense to me - but I have observed it more that once in my career.

[coldflame]

Somebody must be happy with the direction NCL is proceeding. Just yesterday alone, NCL stock closed up $2.73 (or 4.57%) for the day. It has doubled in value in the last 9 months or so. These numbers and customers (stock holders) are NCL's first and primary concern. So if NCL is loosing previous guest with recent change, it isn't hurting the business model at all. No....I was not one who bought NCL at $30....or at all actually......shucks!

 

From the stock holder perspective NCL is doing fantastic. And they will encourage more cuts and anything to increase revenues and margins. And so long as they are happy FDR and Andy Stuart's jobs are safe. As is invariably the case, with companies that bend over for share holders, customers are usually the ones that get shafted, specially the loyal ones.

[coldflame]

I seems that when businesses start cutting back - ie belt tightening - the stock market reacts with an up tick in the stock price.

 

It does not make sense to me - but I have observed it more that once in my career.

 

It makes complete sense. Less expenses, more cash, more profits. What's so hard to understand about that? Do you think shareholder give a rat's butt what will happen to NCL long term? Ha! They just care about doubling their investment and moving on as soon as things start to shake.

[Jane Don]

I seems that when businesses start cutting back - ie belt tightening - the stock market reacts with an up tick in the stock price.

 

It does not make sense to me - but I have observed it more that once in my career.

 

In the short term. But you can't sacrifice customer satisfaction for investor satisfaction because customers generate the revenue.

 

There have been a plethora of policy changes and rechanges at NCL. It will be another year before we see the actual toll those changes have on bookings. Will customer satisfaction increase or decrease?

[tarps14]

Seems to be lots of empty cabins this fall. Six months from now, we may be seeing a very different story.

[fshagan]

Stock prices go up and down, and sometimes just because the stock is a minor player in an otherwise huge industry that has stocks across the board go up and down. So if the hospitality segment goes bullish, all the stocks in that segment can enjoy a stock price increase. A better barometer of how an individual company is doing is to look at the analyst's recommendations. They look at the company overall and then rate the stock based on what they think the stock will do over time. Right now, NCLH is listed as "Buy" or "Strong Buy" by the majority of analysts.

 

These are smart guys and they analyze companies for a living. But their recommendation can turn on a dime, and it will be interesting to see what they say after the next quarterly earnings call which I think is Monday, 8/3.

 

I looked at NCLH, CCL and RCL stock outlooks on Yahoo finance today and one of those three is not in favor with the analysts. It is not a stock with an "N" in its stock ticker. In fact, its the stock with the lowest P/E ratio, and the lowest debt ratio. Which means the stock I would be tempted to buy is also the one the analysts are saying you should hold if you have it, but not buy any more. Whereas NCLH, with a much worse P/E, is favored by the analysts. Which means they think it is a good buy for the future because of the great direction the company is heading.

[tarps14]

Yes, but, the cabins go empty, profits fall and the repercussions will be felt in the stock overall eventually. I'm not talking day to day, but, the longer term. I get the market as a whole shifts and in the same direction. As you well know, you don't buy based on one day's predictions or, if smart, one quarter, unless you're only in it for the short term. We shall see.

[fshagan]

Yes, but, the cabins go empty, profits fall and the repercussions will be felt in the stock overall eventually. I'm not talking day to day, but, the longer term. I get the market as a whole shifts and in the same direction. As you well know, you don't buy based on one day's predictions or, if smart, one quarter, unless you're only in it for the short term. We shall see.

 

You're right, and that's exactly what the analysts look at ... the "long term" as they define it. They feel the company is making the right moves.

 

No one stopped flying airlines because they added baggage fees instead of increasing the base fare. In fact, the hold-outs to adding baggage fees have all capitulated with only Southwest still including free bags in the fare. The lesson? No matter how much people say they don't want the surprise extra costs their behavior doesn't back it up. They still buy based on the base airfare and don't consider the extra $25 to $100 they will pay in baggage fees. The airlines are the most profitable they have been in the last decade, all because of the nickle and diming baggage fees.

 

Will people stop booking NCL over the increase in DSC, extra cost restaurants, room service fee, etc.? Not on your life. They will still book NCL based on the base fare, the itinerary and their perception of value.

[eroller]

You're right, and that's exactly what the analysts look at ... the "long term" as they define it. They feel the company is making the right moves.

 

 

 

Depends on the analysts as they also concentrate on current profitability and quarterly results weigh heavily on their recommendations. Also analysts are known to get it wrong … often. They may feel NCL is making the right moves right now based on current results, but they can't predict the future and have no idea if the changes NCL is making today will impact future results. I'm also not sure just how closely they look at the changes NCL is making. I'm guessing they are not even aware of many of these "little" changes which NCL regulars are very aware of. They tend to be more high level on focus on the bigger picture.

 

You also can't really compare the airline industry to the cruise industry. They are very different in the way they operate and their purpose. The airlines can get away with a lot more because they are a necessary mode of transportation for many to get from point A to point B. Basically they have a captive audience. Also although they will never admit it, there is some cohesion to what they do. One airline implements a fee or rate increase and generally all the others follow. It doesn't quite work that way in the cruise industry and of course a taking a cruise is not a requirement or necessity for anyone. Just because NCL raises its fees doesn't mean anyone else has to or will, and yes people may book away from NCL if they don't feel there is value or there is more value from another cruise company.

 

Bottom line I think NCL has to be careful. Cutting expenses while maintaining a superior customer experience is a fine balancing act. Get too far out of balance and there are consequences, then a retreat is necessary. Its happened many times in the past to many companies inside and outside the cruise industry that had glowing reports from so-called analysts. The consumer has the final say in whether NCL has gone too far or will go too far with the cuts. They will decide if they still feel there is value or the perception of value. Time will tell and consumers can be very fickle, especially if pushed too far.

[fshagan]

Depends on the analysts as they also concentrate on current profitability and quarterly results weigh heavily on their recommendations. Also analysts are known to get it wrong … often.

 

Yeah, I mentioned that their recommendations can turn on a dime in the post right above that one. In fact, I mentioned that a single earnings call can change their outlook entirely (and one is coming up in a few days).

 

But, I still maintain that analysts recommendations are a better barometer than just stock price alone, as the analysts at least look at more than the price. NCL isn't very big in the hospitality industry, and is probably the smallest of the publicly traded mass market cruise lines.

 

As to the analogy of extra baggage fees with the airlines I think it does work as well as an analogy can. My point was that consumer behavior does not match consumer sentiment as measured on social media. There were airlines proudly proclaiming they do not have baggage fees, and there was huge controversy over the baggage fees on social media. Yet people did not flock to JetBlue because they didn't have baggage fees, and JetBlue reversed course and add the fees.

 

Consumer behavior does not necessarily coincide with consumer sentiment on social media. Sometimes it does, and a company can get into real trouble over a social media misstep, but NCL hasn't gotten anywhere close to that. There's more damage done when they enforce the no-refund policy for someone who has a cancer diagnosis two days before sailing.

[newmexicoNita]

Seems to be lots of empty cabins this fall. Six months from now, we may be seeing a very different story.

 

and where are you getting your information about empty cabins? That is not what I have heard, but all I can go by is what my TA says.

[tarps14]

and where are you getting your information about empty cabins? That is not what I have heard, but all I can go by is what my TA says.

 

Mostly from personal research. We love to cruise so are constantly looking for deals. Sure, the Escape is selling out right and left, but, check the Away ships. The fall is also one of the slowest times for cruise lines. Is this year any different. No. However, I am seeing way more cabins available than I have in past years (and our cruising history goes back to the 1980's as I see yours does). Also, NCL is currently trying to get those with booked cruises to sail the ones before or after the booked ones at a 25% discount. (Unfortunately, they also chose to raise rates with the new August promos as they usually do).

 

You can certainly go by what your TA tells you. Me? I prefer to do my own research. This is what my research has shown.

 

And it was also stated on another thread by someone else. They had been told by their PCC that there are (and I quote) "a LOT of empty cabins this fall".

Edited August 3, 2015 by tarps14

[fstuff1]

Somebody must be happy with the direction NCL is proceeding. Just yesterday alone, NCL stock closed up $2.73 (or 4.57%) for the day. It has doubled in value in the last 9 months or so. These numbers and customers (stock holders) are NCL's first and primary concern. So if NCL is loosing previous guest with recent change, it isn't hurting the business model at all. No....I was not one who bought NCL at $30....or at all actually......shucks!

 

yeah.. Royal Carribean posted killer #s on Fri.

 

people are speculating that NCL will also post great #s when they release their quarterly report on Aug 4th, thus the run up.

 

I cant wait to hear whats the BIG news that NCL will announce on Aug 4th?

Carnival buying them out? lol :p

[newmexicoNita]

Mostly from personal research. We love to cruise so are constantly looking for deals. Sure, the Escape is selling out right and left, but, check the Away ships. The fall is also one of the slowest times for cruise lines. Is this year any different. No. However, I am seeing way more cabins available than I have in past years (and our cruising history goes back to the 1980's as I see yours does). Also, NCL is currently trying to get those with booked cruises to sail the ones before or after the booked ones at a 25% discount. (Unfortunately, they also chose to raise rates with the new August promos as they usually do).

 

You can certainly go by what your TA tells you. Me? I prefer to do my own research. This is what my research has shown.

 

And it was also stated on another thread by someone else. They had been told by their PCC that there are (and I quote) "a LOT of empty cabins this fall".

 

I would trust a TA if she/he is a good one and mine is a lot sooner than any PCCs. As we know, just from reading CC many don't have a clue. No PCC is his/her right mind would make a comment like that. And, bTW, I was TA for many years. I am glad you like to do your own research, many people do. But you may not have a true understanding as to what is really available.

 

I am not surprised they raised rates, like our local market, rates do go up or like the stock market or mortgage rates, it is part of life. I don't know what offering people to book a different cruise, before or after the one they have booked has to do with cabins not being sold. It sounds the opposite to me or the particular cruise is being chartered. This isn't a common occurance; asking passengers to change bookings.

[mrobstad]

I may be the stockholder who purchased at $30 per share in October, I think. Yes, thrilled with stock price. I put a limit order in for RCCL at the same time for $35-38 per share, but it never hit that price. I'm crying about just missing those gains. Seems cruisers on both lines are upset. It also seems, from a solo perspective, cruising has doubled in price! Two summers ago, I scored a 12 day Med cruise for $799.....sadly, those days are long gone! Even sadder is I've recently retired and now have flexibility to travel on non-school vacations. But, I'll adapt and keep cruising! It's still a great vacation!

[tarps14]

I would trust a TA if she/he is a good one and mine is a lot sooner than any PCCs. As we know, just from reading CC many don't have a clue. No PCC is his/her right mind would make a comment like that. And, bTW, I was TA for many years. I am glad you like to do your own research, many people do. But you may not have a true understanding as to what is really available.

 

I am not surprised they raised rates, like our local market, rates do go up or like the stock market or mortgage rates, it is part of life. I don't know what offering people to book a different cruise, before or after the one they have booked has to do with cabins not being sold. It sounds the opposite to me or the particular cruise is being chartered. This isn't a common occurance; asking passengers to change bookings.

 

I didn't say NCL was trying to get people to change their current bookings. I suppose I should have worded it "in addition to" their current bookings. And, I know precisely how to check for current inventory. I am not a novice at this. I understand the system about as well as any TA as I have had many dealings (both as a traveler and not) with them over the years. There have been one or two who actually welcomed my detailed questions and were more than happy to explain and actually show me the ropes. (Maybe that's why I do the research and bookings for most of my friends and family.)

 

While I appreciate your contribution to CC and the depth of your knowledge, you aren't the only one here with an education in travel booking. I may not have a brick and mortar shop (who does nowadays?), but, I do have the knowledge. And, as you well know, no one TA is able to check all available inventory with the push of a button. So while you choose to believe what your TA has told you, I prefer to believe my own research. Doesn't make either of us wrong. Only that we differ on whether there are more or less cabins available this fall and how that will affect NCL's bottom line.

 

Just out of curiosity, why did you choose to question my contribution? With the thread discussion being NCL's current and future path and the strength of the corporation as a whole, I just wonder what about my statement made you take the time to respond to it directly?

[ngrund]

http://www.ncl.com/nclweb/pressroom/pressRelease.html?storyCode=PR_042914F

 

in lieu of dividends to return cash to shareholders, NCLH is buying back shares, which when/if all other things are kept constant brings up the share price

[SwissLe]

I have the minimum amount of shares in each of the companies above to get the shareholders perks, you also get a nice glossy report emailed to you once a year from the suits.

 

My stock has risen and fallen in each company and has very little to do with the implemtation of cut backs or price increases. Traders care very little about that but more on staff changes (FDR may be disliked by some on here but has a good pedigree in the industry), PR (stock seems to drop when a cruise liner is floating and people come back with excrement in bags) and industry/market trends.

 

With new expansion, new ships, new destinations it's not hard to see why NCL is considered a good buy the last year.

[fstuff1]

ncl stock down 3% today.

 

I'm assuming wall street didn't like the quarterly #s released today?

[coldflame]

ncl stock down 3% today.

 

I'm assuming wall street didn't like the quarterly #s released today?

 

The stock has nearly doubled in about a year. 3% is nothing. A normal fluctuation. If it tanks 10-15% in a week, then we can talk about correction.

[www3traveler]

ncl stock down 3% today.

 

I'm assuming wall street didn't like the quarterly #s released today?

This stock market is just reacting to stock markets around the world, nothing to do with any particular company.

[Arzeena]

I didn't say NCL was trying to get people to change their current bookings. I suppose I should have worded it "in addition to" their current bookings. And, I know precisely how to check for current inventory. I am not a novice at this. I understand the system about as well as any TA as I have had many dealings (both as a traveler and not) with them over the years. There have been one or two who actually welcomed my detailed questions and were more than happy to explain and actually show me the ropes. (Maybe that's why I do the research and bookings for most of my friends and family.)

 

While I appreciate your contribution to CC and the depth of your knowledge, you aren't the only one here with an education in travel booking. I may not have a brick and mortar shop (who does nowadays?), but, I do have the knowledge. And, as you well know, no one TA is able to check all available inventory with the push of a button. So while you choose to believe what your TA has told you, I prefer to believe my own research. Doesn't make either of us wrong. Only that we differ on whether there are more or less cabins available this fall and how that will affect NCL's bottom line.

 

Just out of curiosity, why did you choose to question my contribution? With the thread discussion being NCL's current and future path and the strength of the corporation as a whole, I just wonder what about my statement made you take the time to respond to it directly?

 

 

Just thought I'd mention that maybe some cruises may have empty rooms, but the cruise I am booked on has been totally sold out since months!

[fshagan]

ncl stock down 3% today.

 

I'm assuming wall street didn't like the quarterly #s released today?

 

They are taking RCL down with them, it was down 1.6% today! And even industry leader CCL was down .67% Damn that Del Rio ... he's taking the entire stock index down! He even affected Apple, which is down almost the exact same percentage that NCLH is.

 

You really can't look at the stock price in isolation. The preliminary news today was good ... profit is up.

 

But I'm waiting for more analyst's to issue their opinions. The earnings today had NCLH beating the profit target by about 2 points but also missing the gross volume in sales by a similar amount. But the numbers are a little fuzzy ... they are comparing today's numbers to combined numbers from Prestige and NCL of last year, and accounting for "favorable accounting" for some charges that will be taken in the future instead of today. Zack's still has them as a "Buy" but are watching closely.

 

It doesn't look like they read CC as part of their analysis.

 

So it will be interesting after the experts scrub through the numbers. We'll see if the analyst's change their opinion from "Strong Buy" and "Buy" to "Hold" or even "Sell." That's really what matters, not the stock price day to day.

[Chesneygirl]

I hope this doesn't come across as a stupid question but here it goes...

How does a person go about buying NCL shares?

 

We've never done anything like this before but feel that NCL could be a good long term investment. Thanks for any advice! :)