DTW to MIA during Christmas/NYE

[mom2two2]

I am sorry - I know this is a very subjective question.  What is a good price for one person may be unreasonable to the next but I am a bit lost as to what is a "good" price for flights in our case.  I know Miami is more expensive to fly into/out of and expect that to be even more so during the Christmas/NYE season.

 

We are cruising from Miami Dec 30 2019 and were looking to fly in Dec 29, fly back Jan 3 mid-late afternoon after we disembark.  I know none of the discount airlines have their schedules out that far and several of the larger carriers are just releasing theirs now.  2 adults and 2 teens (4 adult fares).  I have seen everything up to $4000 (which I am NOT paying) round trip for all four of us.  I am now starting to see $1950-$2400 USD depending on airline and am thinking about jumping on it.

 

What is a "good" price for this type of flight?  It has been a long time since we flew, especially into Miami and never at that time of year.  I would normally wait for the discount carriers to release their schedules but am hesitant with it being over NYE.  Is there any truth to the "book on Tuesdays" folklore?

[waterbug123]

Book on Tuesdays is a myth, so let's just get that cleared up at the start. Even if some airlines do some kind of routine fare adjustment or sale or whatever on Tuesday evenings, it isn't an across the board, "let's mark everything 20% off" type of thing.  It would be for specific flights/routes that aren't selling as expected.  The chance of such routes being yours is slim.   Actually FLYING on Tuesdays is sometimes less expensive, as it isn't as heavy of a business travel day, but you are flying over the holidays which is a whole different ballgame.

You are flying from a Delta hub to an American hub, and both are large enough to be served by other airlines as well, so you at least should have a lot of possibilities, especially if you consider a connection.  Some will swear that airlines release their lowest fares at the beginning and once they're gone, they're gone.  Others will swear that when airlines first release fares they keep them high to see how many people will bite.  I don't think either one is a hard and fast rule.  Airlines use complicated algorithms to determine fare availability and pricing, and prices can and do change frequently in response to market conditions.  Holiday travel is generally pricier because of the increased demand though.  DTW-MIA isn't a route I fly, so I can't advise you on a typical fare for that route, but at $1000 each, I'd be inclined to not rush to purchase.  As you mentioned, even the legacy airlines have just in the last few days opened up your travel days for booking and they aren't going to sell out this month.  You have some time to wait and see and if it was me, I would.  But everyone has to assess their own situation, risk tolerance, and comfort level with waiting vs. purchasing, and balance that against their pocketbook.   One tiny think you might consider is that early morning flights (I'm talking 6am-ish) are often significantly less because they are not the flights most would voluntarily choose.  You might consider staying a night post-cruise, so that you can catch the first flight out the following morning.   It's possible that you'll find savings over 4 tickets that more than make up for needing a hotel room.

[mom2two2]

Thank you .... yes the $1000 per person is a hard no from me LOL.

 

But at $2000 that would only be $500 per person round trip, no layovers and good times.  I am hoping someone can chime in with their experience

[waterbug123]

17 minutes ago, mom2two2 said:

Thank you .... yes the $1000 per person is a hard no from me LOL.

 

But at $2000 that would only be $500 per person round trip, no layovers and good times.  I am hoping someone can chime in with their experience

 

Sorry, missed that part originally.  Yes, if you can get 4 tickets during holiday time for a total of $2k for all 4, I'd jump on that. 

 

[Zach1213]

I’m traveling to Florida around the same dates, and am seeing similar prices, and can assure you I’m not booking yet. I’ll take that risk because to me it’s too high...which is common when flights are first released. So while there are no guarantees, the frequent flier in me is waiting. 

 

May come back to bite me. We’ll see. 

Edited February 7, 2019 by Zach1213

[FlyerTalker]

To the OP and others....

 

It is much easier when discussions are framed in terms of price per person, not what your total would be.  That might be the eventual number you have to consider, but it makes discussions more difficult.

 

IMO, paying $1000 p/p for DTW-MIA is way too high at 11 months out.  If I saw $400 p/p for holiday travel, I'd give it serious consideration.  Time to keep checking, keeping in mind this advice:  When you see a price that you are comfortable, book it.  Especially if you cannot afford the risk of prices rising, perhaps significantly.

 

Many a "good deal" has evaporated when folks want to squeeze that last bit of potential savings by waiting - and instead the prices take a never-ending trajectory - upwards.

[Flymia]

Make sure you are searching FLL as well, not just MIA. FLL airport is 20-miles north of Port Miami. 

 

That is an expensive time to fly down to Miami. If I were to guess, and this is an absolute guess based on just someone who fly more often than the average person, and out of South Florida. 

 

Anything under $350/pp is going to be a good price that time of the year.  Meaning $400/pp is not horrible. I doubt it would go under $350 or so. You will likely find the best fares with Spirit, but you need to account for the cost of extras like luggage and carry on with Spirit. You will see the cheapest fares with Spirit. 

 

I would wait, but there is no guarantee prices will go down. They typically will after schedules are first released. 

[Twickenham]

Two other points to consider:

 

-Flexibility in your dates: running a search on ITA Matrix, I'm finding  $378 on AA if you return on the 4th, rather than the 3rd. The difference in price would probably cover a hotel room, and it'll make for a nicer vacation anyways  (it's an awful long way to go for 5 nights);

 

-Try searching for 1 or 2 people at a time,  rather than 4; airlines only have a limited number of tickets in each fare bucket, and if say their cheapest fare has only 3 left, a search for 4 will automatically price out at the next, more expensive fare.

[TruckerDave]

Also do forget to look at using multiple airlines and/or airports using 2 one way tickets.  DTW-FLL on Delta or Southwest and back MIA-DTW on American for example. (I don't know if Soutwest and Delta even fly this route just using it as an example).   Not being "brand loyal" and traveling to/from two large markets can be helpful. 

[sumiandkage]

We go Florida to Michigan to visit family around Christmastime and I've learned to not even bother searching for tickets until August or so. Granted I'm a Delta outstation captive, but it seems like they don't really load cheaper fare buckets until that time. 

[pcur]

We fly in and out of DTW several times year, and flew last October for a cruise.  I would suggest you check Southwest in mid-to-late April, or early May.  Their schedule for Dec/Jan should be open by then.  Go to THIS page and check for the opening date after 3/14/19, which is the current date to open the schedules up through 11/2/19:

 

https://www.southwest.com/html/travel-tools/index.html

 

Right now SW over Labor day is about $400 - $500 per person, but you get 2 free bags per person, too.

 

Southwest flies DTW to FLL.  I would either Uber to a hotel (with cruise port shuttle) near the Miami port, or stay near FLL and Uber the next day directly to the port.  It will cost $40 - $50.

 

[Shorex]

On 2/7/2019 at 12:45 PM, Twickenham said:

-Try searching for 1 or 2 people at a time,  rather than 4; airlines only have a limited number of tickets in each fare bucket, and if say their cheapest fare has only 3 left, a search for 4 will automatically price out at the next, more expensive fare.

 

Absolutely. Don't automatically assume that all four fares will be identical. You might get, for example, one fare at $350, two at $400, and one at $425. In this random example, if you search for four tickets, you would get a result  of 4x$425 ($1700) when when a total price of $1525 was available with better searching.