Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[phil the brit]

12 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

I'm guessing that the "eminent professor" is the one who blasted the quarantine, and then took all his videos off social media?  That tells me something about his "eminence".  Further, from what quick look at his views were, I didn't see any mention of AC systems, merely that untrained personnel (crew) were used to service the quarantined.

 

Correct in who the professor was. I believe that he was "forced" to take his comments down. He was told to say that it has all been fixed now (fact) but he has not been back to the ship to see that for himself. Basically he has been "got at".

He didn't mentioned AC systems, he didn't get to do any more analysis before he was removed from ship. He therefore did not get to that.

Edited February 20, 2020 by phil the brit
sp

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, phil the brit said:

 

So, two questions about air from contaminated areas that gave probable infection to cabins.

 

1/  Air from a cabin vents to outside. Some of the cabins are stacked in a way that one level overlooks the balcony below. Their exhausted air (containing micro organisms carried in the air from different cabins above) and this then falls onto the balconies below.

2/  If guests left their balcony door open (as many did) and then opened the hall door then all the air in the hall (which probably is contaminated) will send particles into a room.

 

Both of these scenarios will spread airborn infection from cabin to cabin, Yes?

Well, first, I have no knowledge of any claim that AC air gave "probable" infection to cabins.

 

The air that is vented from the cabin via the bathroom vent goes through ductwork that collects many cabins' exhaust, and then carries it up to the highest decks, where it is discharged, not out onto the balconies.  So, no, given the distance covered by the air exhausted from even the highest cabins to the point of exhaust, and then back to the balconies, there would not be "droplets" anymore, and environmental conditions (wind?) would make this transfer longer, or not at all.

 

Your second point is correct, that air from the passageway would flow into a cabin with the balcony door open.  But, again, you are ignoring the experts at WHO and CDC who say that aerosol transmission of this virus is limited to a 6 foot radius, and that once the droplets from a cough or sneeze breaks down, there is not enough concentration of virus to cause infection through inhalation.

[LizNeedsAVacation]

Its sounds like the Philippines is planning to bring their crew members home for quarantine there. https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/2/20/Filipinos-cruise-ship-repatriation.html
I different article I read said something about them looking to move quicker as the Japanese want the ship shutdown but I haven't seen that anywhere yet. Will be interesting to see whether there is truth to that. But if the Philippines follows through that is a large portion of the crew who will not be forced to quarantine in the cabins that were just used for weeks by quarantined passengers.

[phil the brit]

8 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Well, first, I have no knowledge of any claim that AC air gave "probable" infection to cabins.

 

The air that is vented from the cabin via the bathroom vent goes through ductwork that collects many cabins' exhaust, and then carries it up to the highest decks, where it is discharged, not out onto the balconies.  So, no, given the distance covered by the air exhausted from even the highest cabins to the point of exhaust, and then back to the balconies, there would not be "droplets" anymore, and environmental conditions (wind?) would make this transfer longer, or not at all.

 

Your second point is correct, that air from the passageway would flow into a cabin with the balcony door open.  But, again, you are ignoring the experts at WHO and CDC who say that aerosol transmission of this virus is limited to a 6 foot radius, and that once the droplets from a cough or sneeze breaks down, there is not enough concentration of virus to cause infection through inhalation.

 

Thank you for your thoughts.

The "probable infection" was of course my words.

Are you saying that "high on the ship" balconies cannot receive this exhaust air from rooms onto their balconies, i mean how high up the ship do they vent?

You mentioned wind would take away the bad air but remember the ship was stationary most of the time, not moving along.

Edited February 20, 2020 by phil the brit
sp

[fragilek]

10 minutes ago, phil the brit said:

 

So, two questions about air from contaminated areas that gave probable infection to cabins.

 

1/  Air from a cabin vents to outside. Some of the cabins are stacked in a way that one level overlooks the balcony below. Their exhausted air (containing micro organisms carried in the air from different cabins above) and this then falls onto the balconies below.

2/  If guests left their balcony door open (as many did) and then opened the hall door then all the air in the hall (which probably is contaminated) will send particles into a room.

 

Both of these scenarios will spread airborn infection from cabin to cabin, Yes?

 We don't yet know if it is airborne, we also now will find it very hard to prove that infection continued to spread on the ship (my earlier posts reflect why- t-curves, testing issues- false -ve & sampling all come into play).   I am not saying it hasn't spread just that it's going to be almost impossible to prove.

The best we can now hope for is that all the negative results were true and that there is no more spread outwith the ship.  Also that when the  crew take up their quarantine places in cabins more thought can go into how to more safely have them do what will still be required to maintain the running of the ship -  is a more skeleton crew possible  some on land isolation , PPE, meal prep /eating in cabins etc but I have no idea what is achievable here

[chengkp75]

4 minutes ago, phil the brit said:

 

Thank you for your thoughts.

The "probable infection" was of course my words.

Are you saying that "high on the ship" balconies cannot receive this exhaust air from rooms onto their balconies, i mean how high up the ship do they vent?

You mentioned wind would take away the bad air but remember the ship was stationary most of the time, not moving along.

Okay, take Diamond Princess.  The highest balconies are on Lido deck, and this is only forward.  The exhaust vents for the forward cabins would come out from the boxy structures on the forward Sports Deck.  This is a minimum of 20 feet up from the balconies, and significantly inboard, so the virus would have to travel 20 feet up, and at least 20 feet horizontally through ducting, past the fan which is up in those boxy structures, and then a high velocity (which breaks down droplets) back 20 feet horizontally, and 20 feet down to get to the balcony.  Bit over the 6 foot radius.

 

So, wind doesn't blow past a stationary ship or building?  It did when I was living in the UK.🙂

[caribill]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

By placing crew in pax cabins, they can separate them into individual quarantines, rather than 2-4 living together.

 

Two weeks alone in a cabin? Sounds more like solitary confinement in prison. Many might have mental problems at the end of two weeks in solitary even with TV and phone.

 

Maybe they will put two people in a cabin instead of four as in some regular crew quarters.

[PoohUnderstands]

2 hours ago, fragilek said:

 Can you say where you got that 30 mins info from as I have not seen any papers on this virus and it's survival time.  At the moment I was under the impression that most calls on this are being made from previous similar viruses.  If I have missed a paper then can you direct me as I will be very interested to read it.

 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces

 

https://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html

 

The is no actual info verified for this virus the scientists are working at the moment with the assumption it will behave in a similar manner to other similar viruses.

 

Note that how long it survives for is not the only factor to take into account.  Most viruses that do survive for longer periods of time loose some (and that can be most) of their potency way before the die off, again we do not have the info to know if it will apply to this virus or not.  There are a few that do not follow the same path.

Was from an article written by a Dr. of these diseases and was in my University of Colorado Health Newsletter.  Also stated that it was more fragile, than say, the measles virus which can live awhile out of the host.  It was stated in a positive manner that they had done enough research on this virus to state the 30 minute life span.  But can one believe all one reads?  Who knows, but that is what I read.  Would sure like to believe it though!

 

Pooh

[chengkp75]

3 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Two weeks alone in a cabin? Sounds more like solitary confinement in prison. Many might have mental problems at the end of two weeks in solitary even with TV and phone.

 

Maybe they will put two people in a cabin instead of four as in some regular crew quarters.

Two or four in a cabin would not change the effectiveness of the isolation against the virus by any significant amount, I think.   I feel that ship's crews are far more resilient than most, and enduring hardship is one of the things they do well.

[caribill]

1 hour ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Oops.  I always forget my browser at work allows me to see WSJ articles since my company pays for it.

 

Basically, the ship is going to undergo a very DEEP cleaning, not just on the surface.  All surfaces, air ducts, etc.  All linens and towels completely replaced.  And then back in service in April.

 

This seems to imply that the materials they are made of could harbor the virus even with extensive laundering.

 

What does that say about all the passengers' clothing that they brought home with them? Should they all be thrown out?

 

Or is replacing all the linens and towels more a public relations thing instead of really being necessary?

[AlyssaJames]

Generally, viruses survive longer on hard surfaces, not fabrics. So I expect that replacing all the soft goods is an optics thing. 

[hllwdcruiser]

@chengkp75 Thank-you for taking the time to explain things in layman's terms, I never really understood how the AC worked in the cabins and now it all makes sense.

As distressing as most of the content of this thread has been, I am grateful for the many things I have learned that I never knew before. 

[fragilek]

13 minutes ago, PoohUnderstands said:

Was from an article written by a Dr. of these diseases and was in my University of Colorado Health Newsletter.  Also stated that it was more fragile, than say, the measles virus which can live awhile out of the host.  It was stated in a positive manner that they had done enough research on this virus to state the 30 minute life span.  But can one believe all one reads?  Who knows, but that is what I read.  Would sure like to believe it though!

 

Pooh

 Thanks for the update - The only thing I can think of is he is talking about how long viruses stay active in something like  tissues as that is usually about 30 mins (the tissue absorbs all the moisture to make the environment too harsh for the virus). Linen usually acts in a similar way but not as fast- however, I have read some stuff suggesting this one may last longer on linen, but non of the reports about this have had data or papers quoted to support that, so I am skeptical, I expect a good wash and dry and they would be good to go.  He absolutely correct about Measles it has one of the highest Ro levels - I think from memory its about 40 (not checked this up and the old memory isn't what it used to be ).  

[voljeep]

7 minutes ago, hllwdcruiser said:

@chengkp75 Thank-you for taking the time to explain things in layman's terms, I never really understood how the AC worked in the cabins and now it all makes sense.

As distressing as most of the content of this thread has been, I am grateful for the many things I have learned that I never knew before. 

so, in this battle of the engineers, has this new information changed the way you feel about Princess and will change your cruising habits ?

 

yeah, mine neither

 

it's A/C ... it circulates … washy washy

 

lock it down

[fragilek]

9 minutes ago, AlyssaJames said:

Generally, viruses survive longer on hard surfaces, not fabrics. So I expect that replacing all the soft goods is an optics thing. 

 agreed, for that first sailing  I think it will have to look almost brand new

[sailaway54321]

Coronavirus Kills Two Cruisers

 

https://cruiseradio.net/coronavirus-kills-two-cruisers-as-one-line-suspends-ships-operations/

 

 

[bluesea321]

1 hour ago, phil the brit said:

I believe that he was "forced" to take his comments down. He was told to say that it has all been fixed now but he has not been back to the ship to see that for himself. Basically he has been "got at".

 

The professor is Kentaro Iwata, a professor at the infectious disease division of Kobe University. He has impeccable credentials, 20 years as a doctor working on infectious diseases, worked on Ebola, SARS, MERS, etc. and has a long list of publications (as posted here before). Your guess is as good as mine regarding why the video was taken down. I suspect just as you do, he has been "got at". Below is the Japan Times article about his observations:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/video-covid-19-controls-diamond-princess/#.Xk7TzBNKjPA

Edited February 20, 2020 by bluesea321

[chengkp75]

18 minutes ago, AlyssaJames said:

Generally, viruses survive longer on hard surfaces, not fabrics. So I expect that replacing all the soft goods is an optics thing. 

Not to mention that the fogging of soft surfaces like curtains, etc, with Virkon will kill the virus.  Plus, the washers in the ship's laundry only need to be set to "medical" setting to sanitize the linens and towels, just as is done with noro outbreak linens.

[AlyssaJames]

 

@chengkp75 Some folks in this thread are only happy with the worst-case scenario, and I think some of them would be genuinely giddy to see this turn into a legitimate global catastrophe. Some weirdly biased thinking in that regard. Thank you for taking the time to counter it. 

Edited February 20, 2020 by AlyssaJames

[hllwdcruiser]

38 minutes ago, voljeep said:

so, in this battle of the engineers, has this new information changed the way you feel about Princess and will change your cruising habits ?

 

yeah, mine neither

 

it's A/C ... it circulates … washy washy

 

lock it down

 

H*ll no. We are cruising in just over 2 weeks and we never gave it a second's thought to cancel.

Although I'm not taking any of this lightly and I do feel awful for those who are in SE Asia and especially those who were on the Diamond, I'm doing my best to keep things in perspective.

We live just outside of Miami and Fort Lauderdale where you literally take your life in your hands every time you get behind the wheel. Not to mention DH has been an active LEO for over 30 years down here. Next time you are in SE Florida just listen to the local news. It takes a lot to scare us.

Edited February 20, 2020 by hllwdcruiser

[Cruiser933]

Many news sources are now saying that Coronavirus may be spread by fecal/oral route.

[hal2008]

6 minutes ago, Cruiser933 said:

Many news sources are now saying that Coronavirus may be spread by fecal/oral route.

 

Thats pretty old news now.

It was first suspected based on infection transmission that took place in HK apartement especially gioven that it is exactly how SARS (current corona's sibling) spread.

Keywords are "may be" and "suspected".

Like many things with this new virus - lot of it is intellectual guessing. A lot will turn out to be true and some false.

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, hal2008 said:

 

Thats pretty old news now.

It was first suspected based on infection transmission that took place in HK apartement especially gioven that it is exactly how SARS (current corona's sibling) spread.

Keywords are "may be" and "suspected".

Like many things with this new virus - lot of it is intellectual guessing. A lot will turn out to be true and some false.

And, a fecal/oral transmission vector is far more easily contained than an aerosol one.  Simple good hand hygiene stops the fecal/oral route, while aerosol is the transmission vector that epidemiologists fear the worst.

[zonacruiser25]

I cruise for the pleasure of a vacation and enjoyment.  Sadly on DP, 2 persons have died and way too many have been hospitalized.  Look how many lives have been changed, some possibly forever.  A weeks pleasure cruise is not supposed to end this way.  Makes Gilligan's Island sound attractive.

 

Does anyone know how many passengers still remain on the ship?  Once they are all off, do any experts here know if the ship does a 14 day cruise to where ever they end up, would that be an effective quarantine for all aboard for the virus?

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, zonacruiser25 said:

I cruise for the pleasure of a vacation and enjoyment.  Sadly on DP, 2 persons have died and way too many have been hospitalized.  Look how many lives have been changed, some possibly forever.  A weeks pleasure cruise is not supposed to end this way.  Makes Gilligan's Island sound attractive.

 

Does anyone know how many passengers still remain on the ship?  Once they are all off, do any experts here know if the ship does a 14 day cruise to where ever they end up, would that be an effective quarantine for all aboard for the virus?

The ship is going to be taken out of service for most of March for sanitizing and renewal of items.  After that, the ship will not be in quarantine, but whether ports will allow ships that call at ports in areas with confirmed cases is still up in the air.