RCL Stock

[MightyMike]

4 hours ago, fredmdcruisers said:

Waiting for $25 again. 

 

You might just get your chance!

[Tlbecker1]

4 minutes ago, MightyMike said:

 

You might just get your chance!

I am excited to buy more soon, but I don’t want it to drop even further.

[kccrzr]

17 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

We get a $1000 discount for 100 shares on the World Cruise. Cash, not OBC.

Interesting. Any word on whether it is OBC or credit for individual legs?

[John&LaLa]

4 hours ago, ChC said:

 

In 2020, the planned (which later abandoned due to Covid, but that plan was highest capacity in RCL's med deployment and can be used as figure for comparison) Med capacity (numbers are from official figure by RCL) was:

Allure (6780)

Jewel (2702)

Explore (4290)

Vision (2514)

TOTAL  16,286

 

in  July 2021, the Med cruises are done by:

Wonder (6988)

Brilliance (2543)

Odyssey (5510)

Vision (2514)

and Rhapsody (2416)

TOTAL 19,971.

In August when Rhapsody reposition to Haifa/Limassol, the total capacity for west med is still higher at 17,555.

 

No matter how you argue or dress the problem, med capacity had been increased.  

 

Ok, but you blamed it on Wonder specifically. That is all I addressed

[John&LaLa]

1 hour ago, kccrzr said:

Interesting. Any word on whether it is OBC or credit for individual legs?

 

No idea

[grandgeezer]

6 hours ago, ChC said:

 

In 2020, the planned (which later abandoned due to Covid, but that plan was highest capacity in RCL's med deployment and can be used as figure for comparison) Med capacity (numbers are from official figure by RCL) was:

Allure (6780)

Jewel (2702)

Explore (4290)

Vision (2514)

TOTAL  16,286

 

in  July 2021, the Med cruises are done by:

Wonder (6988)

Brilliance (2543)

Odyssey (5510)

Vision (2514)

and Rhapsody (2416)

TOTAL 19,971.

In August when Rhapsody reposition to Haifa/Limassol, the total capacity for west med is still higher at 17,555.

 

No matter how you argue or dress the problem, med capacity had been increased.  

Max capacity means nothing, number of passengers onboard is what puts the money in their pocket.

[John&LaLa]

2 hours ago, ChC said:

 

Sure, Wonder brings in 208 more berth than Allure. That is still an increase.

 

Congratulations, you win the internet🤣🤣

[John&LaLa]

2 minutes ago, ChC said:

 

I am proud I did not start it. I try my best to point to the obvious. I am too logical to be one's friend. 😅

 

That was sarcasm

[Jimbo]

Cruise stocks were tumbling to their lowest point since 2020 on Thursday as fears intensified over rising inflation and a potential recession.

 

Carnival (ticker: CCL) was down 9.5% to $8.91, and was on track for its lowest close since April 2020. Rival Royal Caribbean Group ( RCL) was down 8.5% to $36.31, and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings ( NCLH) was trading at $10.67, down 9%. Both Royal Caribbean and Norwegian were poised to close at their lowest points since May 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

 

Fueling the selloff were concerns that consumers will be curbing discretionary spending in response to rising prices and economic uncertainty. There's also an uptick in Covid-19 cases that may be increasing consumer reluctance to hop on a cruise. The seven-day moving average for known Covid-19 cases has hovered around 100,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and likely is higher amid an increased reliance on at-home testing kits that don't get reported to public officials.

 

Already, cruise lines have experienced pricing declines from May to June, indicating that bookings may be eroding, according to early June data from Bank of America Securities. BofA analyst Andrew Didora views the slowdown as "more specific to the cruise industry than a larger read to the leisure consumer," given further Covid-19 pressures, ongoing pushes to ramp up capacity, and difficulty attracting consumers who are new to cruising.

 

Didora said he expects further pricing weakness ahead for 2023 and 2024, with prices declining 2.6%, on average, for all three major cruise lines. He maintained a Neutral rating on Carnival and Norwegian, and an Underperform on Royal Caribbean.

 

"Cruise lines have been at the center of the pandemic, and the profit recovery continues to be delayed given the different variants," Didora wrote. "This is happening at a time when the market is already factoring in a strong recovery. Given that the industry has taken on considerable amounts of debt in the past year, a long road ahead remains to de-lever and return to pre-pandemic balance sheets."

 

That could be even more challenging if the economy plunges into a recession, which is becoming even more likely as the Federal Reserve moves to increase interest rates at a faster-than-expected pace. On Wednesday, the central bank announced it would raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, the highest single rate hike since 1994.

 

Not all analysts are betting against cruise lines. Susquehanna analyst Christopher Stathoulopoulos initiated coverage of Norwegian and Royal Caribbean at Positive last week, saying the industry was on the mend and had a line of sight toward profitability in 2023.

 

Leo Carrington, analyst at Citigroup, continued to see strength on pent-up demand with most ships back on the water and cruise destinations open, even if web tracking information indicated that interest in cruises ticked down 1% in May, while it increased across all other subsectors.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Jimbo

[BermudaBound2014]

The last week in the market has been especially brutal to all the cruise stocks. While the Dow is down 7%, RCL is down 28% (in the last 5 days). Since cruising resumed this time last year, RCL is down 60%.

 

Interest rate cost on the debt alone area approaching a full quarter operating profit. That is BRUtAL.

 

"For Royal Caribbean, investors can count on profits being lower (or losses higher) by $462 million given that company's $23.1 billion debt.....it appears that over the course of a year, these higher interest rates have the potential to consume as much as a full quarter's worth of forecast operating profit at Royal Caribbean"

 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/16/why-cruise-stocks-sank-again-on-thursday/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

Wall street is showing very little confidence in the cruise industry.

 

 

[NightOne]

17 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

The last week in the market has been especially brutal to all the cruise stocks. While the Dow is down 7%, RCL is down 28% (in the last 5 days). Since cruising resumed this time last year, RCL is down 60%.

 

Interest rate cost on the debt alone area approaching a full quarter operating profit. That is BRUtAL.

 

"For Royal Caribbean, investors can count on profits being lower (or losses higher) by $462 million given that company's $23.1 billion debt.....it appears that over the course of a year, these higher interest rates have the potential to consume as much as a full quarter's worth of forecast operating profit at Royal Caribbean"

 

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/16/why-cruise-stocks-sank-again-on-thursday/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

Wall street is showing very little confidence in the cruise industry.

 

 

 

 

So at what price are you a buyer?

 

You mentioned that you liquidated your short positions and might go long at <$40

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

[Jimbo]

4 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

 

 

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

If that happens you are going to see ALOT of stock holders jumping off their  ships.

Edited June 16, 2022 by Jimbo

[BermudaBound2014]

31 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

 

So at what price are you a buyer?

 

You mentioned that you liquidated your short positions and might go long at <$40

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

 

So you are asking my opinion, I'll preface this with I'm nothing more than another idiot on the internet and don't suggest anyone take stock advice from me.

 

With that said, these are my thoughts....

 

I do believe there is risk here. Chapter 11/7/Bk. With this debt, interest rates rising, an all out recession in progress, cruise ship covid protocols, image of cruising in a 'petri dish', price of oil, etc.... I think cruise lines are in serious trouble with no end in the immediate future.

 

With that, I believe RCL is the strongest of the three.

 

The feds increased .75 yesterday. That increase was pretty much built in with Monday/Tuesday tumble. I believe the market is reacting today to rumors of another .75 in July.  I believe it will get worse with our normal Friday sell off tomorrow. I'm not sure the price I"m back in at, but it's possible that tomorrow's low may entice me enough to bite. 

 

I'm trying to figure out how RCL bought the Crystal Endevour. They purchased Silverstein with stock credits, so if they purchased Endevour with the same method it's not a great predictor. If anyone can find this out, I'd be much appreciated. 

 

What are your thoughts?

[Biker19]

27 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

What are your thoughts?

The details of the Endeavour purchase should be listed in about 6 weeks when they file their quarterly with the SEC.

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

I own a good amount of Royal and Carnival. So far I have lost over $30,000.00 I really hope it turns around. Will it stay above water till November? 

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The details of the Endeavour purchase should be listed in about 6 weeks when they file their quarterly with the SEC.

 

Thank you. I do realize that the quarterlies should include specifics, but I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL. 

[Biker19]

43 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I do realize that the quarterlies should include specifics, but I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL. 

It's really though to know when to catch a falling knife.

[like2cruise99]

43 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I own a good amount of Royal and Carnival. So far I have lost over $30,000.00 I really hope it turns around. Will it stay above water till November? 

Do you get anything extra for having above the 100 shares or is that all you get regardless of how much you own?

 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

It's really though to know when to catch a falling knife.

 

Story of my life. I mentioned that I prematurely closed all my shorts at $60 and now it's trading $35. Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda 😄 

 

Just glad I didn't go long at $40. This thing still has room to drop. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, like2cruise99 said:

Do you get anything extra for having above the 100 shares or is that all you get regardless of how much you own?

 

 

That's all you get.

 

And, just a FYI, Carnival appears to have added a caveat to their stock OBC stating that you can only get the OBC if the price isn't discounted. People are reporting being turned down because their cruise price was so low. It's not RCL, but....

[Morecruisesplz]

2 hours ago, NightOne said:

 

 

So at what price are you a buyer?

 

You mentioned that you liquidated your short positions and might go long at <$40

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

I'm waiting for $25 to buy again and hold on back to highs. Last time I sold at $50 and should have waited.

It's not just the economy... Covid numbers are way up across the country. Those of us who stayed safe and never got it are catching it now. No masks, people not getting boosted, workers with minor symptoms not testing but having it and spreading it, etc. Everyone thought it was over but it's not. Cruises will have to go back to lower passenger counts again and it's gonna kill their bottom line.

[five.]

21 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

That's all you get.

 

And, just a FYI, Carnival appears to have added a caveat to their stock OBC stating that you can only get the OBC if the price isn't discounted. People are reporting being turned down because their cruise price was so low. It's not RCL, but....

I was turned down for a HAL OBC. Of course it was a free cruise, so that's fine. I just thought it would work, since it had always worked in the past.

[NightOne]

13 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I'm waiting for $25 to buy again and hold on back to highs. Last time I sold at $50 and should have waited.

It's not just the economy... Covid numbers are way up across the country. Those of us who stayed safe and never got it are catching it now. No masks, people not getting boosted, workers with minor symptoms not testing but having it and spreading it, etc. Everyone thought it was over but it's not. Cruises will have to go back to lower passenger counts again and it's gonna kill their bottom line.

 

Fauci is double vaxxed and double boosted and runs around in a mask all the time ... and he now has ... wait for it ... Covid-19

 

This thing is NEVER going to be over. Covid is with us for a very long time. The good news is that it appears to be getting even more mild with every new variant/wave.

 

I still think about the question: Where would we be now if we had done absolutely nothing at the beginning of Covid and just ignored it. Would we have more or less deaths? More or less variants? Would it still be among us?

 

 

[BND]

6 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Fauci is double vaxxed and double boosted and runs around in a mask all the time ... and he now has ... wait for it ... Covid-19

 

This thing is NEVER going to be over. Covid is with us for a very long time. The good news is that it appears to be getting even more mild with every new variant/wave.

 

I still think about the question: Where would we be now if we had done absolutely nothing at the beginning of Covid and just ignored it. Would we have more or less deaths? More or less variants? Would it still be among us?

 

 

It's become what we have to live with, just like many other viruses.  Problem is, until the Gov tells people so, they won't believe it. 

 

We have 100 shares that we bought last year and we're just sitting on it, like our entire portfolio (other than some shifting of some money).  It will all recover at some point.  

[Baron Barracuda]

With stockholders equity now down to $4B (and debt up to $20B+) after losing $1B+ in each of the past two quarters RCL may soon be forced  to shore up the balance sheet by issuing a lot of new equity.  Should have done so earlier this year when stock was trading at $90, or a month ago at $60, or even a week ago at $50.  Now if forced to sell at $35 it would be extremely dilutive and painful.  Unfortunately, faced with continuing losses and an uncertain economy Liberty may have no choice other than to do whatever it takes to keep creditors at bay.  Also, wouldn't be surprised if at least one of CCL, NCLH and RCL is sold this year..