RCL Stock

[Cruise5life]

Here’s a silly question.   If I sold now  I’ve gotten my OBC for a cruise in Dec.   would the cruise line know I’ve sold.     I bought at 39.00.  

[Wineaux007]

7 minutes ago, Cruise5life said:

Here’s a silly question.   If I sold now  I’ve gotten my OBC for a cruise in Dec.   would the cruise line know I’ve sold.     I bought at 39.00.  

Probably not.

[RJ257]

37 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I bought at $25 as Covid hit but sold in the $50s. I should have held on.

You never get hurt taking a profit. I think you did the right thing. All stocks went down this week its not an RCL thing necessarily. A rally to the upside is due soon. It will be like the summer one most likely with more downside later and recession in 2023 or a bit later. Its just a nasty cycle and I hope the cruise lines can survive.

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, Cruise5life said:

Here’s a silly question.   If I sold now  I’ve gotten my OBC for a cruise in Dec.   would the cruise line know I’ve sold.     I bought at 39.00.  

NO

[exm]

On 9/23/2022 at 6:02 PM, grandgeezer said:

What do you consider all in, more than the 100 shares it takes to get the shareholder obc.

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, exm said:

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

If you stick it in RCL or any other cruise stock, you might have a long wait for any decent return. The $25,000,000,000 they have in debt will haunt them for a long time.

A nice chunk of cash is open to interpretation, to me it would be a minimum of $100,000. Anything less than that is pocket change.

[DirtyDawg]

On 9/22/2022 at 2:32 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

Consider that 12/19 pre-pandemic the market valued RCL at $40B ($12B debt + 209mm shares @ $136).  Today's value is $36B ($24B debt + 255mm shares @ $47).  After being shut down for almost two years having enterprise value of  business down only 10% isn't bad.  A $15 increase in stock price to $62 would get them back to the 12/19 level.  Stock was in $60's four months ago so if reports of strong bookings translate into positive cash flow and earnings could soon get it there again.

Many older issues of Royal's bonds are trading at significant discounts to par or 'book' value. The book value of Royal's debt may be $24B but the market value is less. 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, exm said:

 

I have a nice chunk of cash waiting to be invested.

Long or short? 

[exm]

On 9/25/2022 at 6:09 PM, grandgeezer said:

If you stick it in RCL or any other cruise stock, you might have a long wait for any decent return. The $25,000,000,000 they have in debt will haunt them for a long time.

A nice chunk of cash is open to interpretation, to me it would be a minimum of $100,000. Anything less than that is pocket change.

 

Yes, 6 figures. I do think within the next 12 months there's plenty of upside.

[grandgeezer]

39 minutes ago, exm said:

 

Yes, 6 figures. I do think within the next 12 months there's plenty of upside.

I think you are way to optimistic, this is the same mindset that popped up when it dropped below $20 over two years ago. Inflation is going crazy, and the so called recession has just got going. If this last too long, it could seriously harm the industry. Just recently they borrowed a couple billion dollars to pay off payments due in 2022 and 2023. They had to pay about 11% on the money, as in junk bonds, as they are considered a risk.

Think about it, all the ships are sailing, their occupancy is up, probably 80+%, and the stock is at $44.04, $96 below the all time high that paid $3.16 per share, annually in dividends.

[BermudaBound2014]

CCL released this morning and missed big. 

 

All three stocks are reacting negatively to the CCL ER.

 

RCL down 9%

NCL down 10%

CCL down 18%

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-third-131500116.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

CCL showed a positive EBITDA?  I'll buy another 100 shares, why not?

 

None of this matters until I need the money, and I'm probably 20 years from that point. 

 

A positive EBITDA because they diluted another 1.5 Billion. 

 

Still room to fall IMO.

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

I don't foresee them going BK -- and it's not like it's going to be money I'm taking from living expenses.   No gamble here, not really.

 

 

I believe Ch 11 is on the table, but if I was a young investor like you, I might take a chance. As a retired Gen Z, I'm holding this short for the quick win. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Oh... we are close to the same age. I had you pictured as a young whipper-snapper ;-). 

 

I purchased shorts in July of 2021 in all three cruise companies. Normally I shy away from shorts because it's the only think you can lose to infinity; but IMO the writing has been on the wall here. I only short companies I feel like I have a very good pulse on. Cruising has been a hobby of mine since the mid 80's and this short investment has been very lucrative.

 

The rest of my portfolio has seen tough times in 2022 🙂 

 

 

 

 

[bucfan2]

25 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I purchased shorts in July of 2021 in all three cruise companies.  

 

 

 

 

Assume you took a  ‘short position’?  Never heard of ‘purchasing a short’, as there is nothing to purchase. (Perhaps I’m more ignorant to my own investing than I realize).

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, bucfan2 said:

Assume you took a  ‘short position’?  Never heard of ‘purchasing a short’, as there is nothing to purchase. (Perhaps I’m more ignorant to my own investing than I realize).

 

I consider it a "purchase: since there is money to lose; but my grammar could be better.

[NightOne]

10 minutes ago, bucfan2 said:

Assume you took a  ‘short position’?  Never heard of ‘purchasing a short’, as there is nothing to purchase. (Perhaps I’m more ignorant to my own investing than I realize).

 

It's legalized gambling. Shorting is not "investing". IDGAF what anyone says. It should be illegal. 😉

 

[grandgeezer]

On 9/23/2022 at 12:41 PM, exm said:

If this dips below $40, I'll be all-in.

It’s below $39, you must be all in, unless it’s just all talk.

[bucfan2]

1 minute ago, dada2199cc said:

 some folks earn a little interest off of lending their shares to short sellers.

 

 

And a ton of $ selling them to someone that needs to cover when they can’t get out….and yes, it happens. 

[NightOne]

23 minutes ago, dada2199cc said:

 

Actually, shorts help make the market and I am thankful for them.

 

Plus, some folks earn a little interest off of lending their shares to short sellers.

 

 

 

You'll never convince me. LOL 

 

Shorting is the exact opposite of investing. 🙂

 

BTW, you never e-mailed me about your price tracking app. So sad. 😞

[yogimax]

Instead of shorting with unlimited risk, you could buy puts which limits the amount you could lose.

[Baron Barracuda]

Troubling that CCL occupancy now up to 90% yet still cash flow negative for quarter.  For q4 they're forecasting weaker volumes at lower pricing partially due to fcc's.  Debt service requirements dwarf that little bit of positive EBITDA.

[DirtyDawg]

17 hours ago, yogimax said:

Instead of shorting with unlimited risk, you could buy puts which limits the amount you could lose.

Yes, there are many strategies that you can employ if you want to invest/speculate that a stock, or market or a commodity etc. will decline in price. Some people think shorting is speculation and going long is investment. Quite frankly, it depends on the person's level of knowledge about the investment and about it's risks that makes either going short or going long an investment or just a speculation. In my experience, most retail 'investors' who naturally go long, are in fact just speculators. (Psst, some professionals too!) 😉

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, DirtyDawg said:

 Quite frankly, it depends on the person's level of knowledge about the investment and about it's risks that makes either going short or going long an investment or just a speculation.

 

Exactly this. I don't claim to be an expert investor, but I didn't go short to lose money and I won't ever go short unless I feel comfortable with my knowledge of the industry. 

 

To me, the writing has been on the wall and I saw very little risk going short last July. Let's see....the cruise companies were entirely shuttered for 18 months. The path back to sailing was cluttered with very expensive covid protocols which cost the cruise lines in terms of both $$$ and people willing to cruise. A very real mind shift in how Johnny Public views cruising due to months of very bad press related to petri dishes. A new public much more sensitive to virus exposure (all virus) which increases with population density (less likely to choose cruising). Debt mounting into the Billions (with a B). Interest on said debt rising rapidly. And now we have a very serious recession. Shorting seemed much less risky than remaining long. Speculation that proved very lucrative. 

 

Don't hate the player, hate the game ;-). 

Edited October 1, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Morecruisesplz]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Exactly this. I don't claim to be an expert investor, but I didn't go short to lose money and I won't ever go short unless I feel comfortable with my knowledge of the industry. 

 

To me, the writing has been on the wall and I saw very little risk going short last July. Let's see....the cruise companies were entirely shuttered for 18 months. The path back to sailing was cluttered with very expensive covid protocols which cost the cruise lines in terms of both $$$ and people willing to cruise. A very real mind shift in how Johnny Public views cruising due to months of very bad press related to petri dishes. A new public much more sensitive to virus exposure (all virus) which increases with population density (less likely to choose cruising). Debt mounting into the Billions (with a B). Interest on said debt rising rapidly. And now we have a very serious recession. Shorting seemed much less risky than remaining long. Speculation that proved very lucrative. 

 

Don't hate the player, hate the game ;-). 

🥱