smokeybandit Posted July 25 #3026 Share Posted July 25 1 hour ago, Engineroom Snipe said: Could it be Carnival's announcement of three new mega ships for 2029? Carnival's stock price also dropped today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted July 25 #3027 Share Posted July 25 59 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Carnival's stock price also dropped today. Maybe talk about American, Delta, and Southwest not having a good quarter slightly spooked the market to include everything travel related? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NateUpNorth Posted July 25 #3028 Share Posted July 25 On 7/18/2024 at 6:51 AM, rimmit said: Thanks. And to add on to that, the normalization for the upcoming generation of parents to take their kids on larger and more exotic vacations has been a boon to cruising. When I was growing up no one went to Europe until high school at the earliest. Now I can’t count how many families I know that have brought their young kids, as in 7 or younger, to Europe or on a more exotic vacation. My family is one of those and spear headed that effort. We were literally stalking the ships RCI was installing nurseries on when they began putting them on ships in 2011. In 2011 most people thought we were crazy for taking our 15 month old on TAs and to Europe. There was no tiktok or Facebook live back then. Absolutely 100% this. ^^^^^ Similar experience here, and with MANY families we know. We were dragged kicking and screaming onto a cruise with a young child for a "Anniversary Celebration" cruise with family when Oasis was first intro'd. Opened our eyes to the industry and where it was heading. While kids were small we did Caribbean cruise winter vacations and they've seen so many different islands and cultures. Now they're a little bit older and can appreciate Europe and it's history we'll be flipping from Winter Caribbean to Summer vacay mode there. So in terms of stock price........ I believe the industry has a lot of runway in both the Caribbean and European sailings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted July 25 #3029 Share Posted July 25 Respectfully disagree about the wisdom of re-instituting the dividend. With increasing economic uncertainty (why else is everyone clamoring for a fed rate cut) better to hold on to the cash and continue paying down debt. Royal has $3.5B in new ship acquisitions scheduled for next year that will substantially add to their debt burden. Once a dividend is in place it would be extremely embarrassing to reduce or eliminate it again should the economy falter. Some institutions are restricted to owning only dividend paying stocks however the majority are focused on total return. Most large cap growth stocks pay little to no dividends as they plow money back into the business and it hasn't hurt their stock performance (or Royal's either). Warren Buffet willingly accepts dividends but has never paid one himself believing dividends to be tax inefficient. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted July 25 #3030 Share Posted July 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said: Respectfully disagree about the wisdom of re-instituting the dividend. With increasing economic uncertainty (why else is everyone clamoring for a fed rate cut) better to hold on to the cash and continue paying down debt. Royal has $3.5B in new ship acquisitions scheduled for next year that will substantially add to their debt burden. Once a dividend is in place it would be extremely embarrassing to reduce or eliminate it again should the economy falter. Some institutions are restricted to owning only dividend paying stocks however the majority are focused on total return. Most large cap growth stocks pay little to no dividends as they plow money back into the business and it hasn't hurt their stock performance (or Royal's either). Warren Buffet willingly accepts dividends but has never paid one himself believing dividends to be tax inefficient. I agree with you. It's too soon. Pay down more debt. At most a much smaller dividend. Their debt is at a higher rate than I'm comfortable with. Pay more down. Obviously the market doesnt like it any better than I like the news. Market is taking it as a sign of weak earnings going forward. Edited July 25 by firefly333 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted July 25 #3031 Share Posted July 25 3 hours ago, firefly333 said: I agree with you. It's too soon. Pay down more debt. At most a much smaller dividend. Market is taking it as a sign of weak earnings going forward. Throw the stockholders a bone to distract them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tidecat Posted July 26 #3032 Share Posted July 26 I'm not sure what debt Royal could pay off right now. The dividend will only cost about $100 million. The USD portion of the loan for Harmony only has an interest rate of 2.53%. The "B" trianches on both Utopia and Ascent combined are about $72 million, but I don't know if they're connected to the "A" trianches that are much larger. For $137.5 million they could have paid off Silver Moon, which is due June 2028 and is at SOFR + 210 basis points, which would be around 7.5% right now. That would have saved 10.3 million a year for nearly 3 years, net of any prepayment penalties. Operating cash flow for the year should be over $5 billion, and maybe even closer to $6 billion; it was over $4 billion for 2023, and Royal has nearly matched last year's income per share for 2023 in just two quarters. If that holds going forward, even if Royal pays $400-500 million of dividends, that should still leave north of $4 billion each year for debt repayment. That easily outstrips the scheduled maturities for 2025-2030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volk9048 Posted July 26 #3033 Share Posted July 26 I think the stock dropped because early Thursday the media reported Royals earnings were less than expectations. Then 2 hours later it was corrected to say Royals Revenue, and earning were higher tha n expected but by then shares were sold, the price dropped and then those computer sellers sold more. No reason for the stock to drop with today’s report. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted July 26 #3034 Share Posted July 26 5 hours ago, Volk9048 said: I think the stock dropped because early Thursday the media reported Royals earnings were less than expectations. Then 2 hours later it was corrected to say Royals Revenue, and earning were higher tha n expected but by then shares were sold, the price dropped and then those computer sellers sold more. No reason for the stock to drop with today’s report. Very plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted July 26 #3035 Share Posted July 26 (edited) Liberty was on with Neil Cavuto last night. Cavuto categorized earnings as boffo but thought stock drop may be due to airlines warning of lower margins and concerns of a weakening consumer. Liberty basically shrugged his shoulders saying he can't control stock market. Cavuto agreed and laughed it off. On re-instituting dividend Liberty made a statement about balance sheet being back to pre-covid level. Not sure where he got that, on 12/19 RCL had roughly 12B debt vs 12B equity. Today they have 21B debt vs $6B equity. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/royal-caribbean-ceo-jason-liberty-we-re-a-little-surprised-by-the-pullback/vi-BB1qCXI6?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=043a27e672084e8c87e2299a1316a9a3&ei=13 Edited July 26 by Baron Barracuda 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted July 27 #3036 Share Posted July 27 10 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said: Liberty was on with Neil Cavuto last night. Cavuto categorized earnings as boffo but thought stock drop may be due to airlines warning of lower margins and concerns of a weakening consumer. Liberty basically shrugged his shoulders saying he can't control stock market. Cavuto agreed and laughed it off. On re-instituting dividend Liberty made a statement about balance sheet being back to pre-covid level. Not sure where he got that, on 12/19 RCL had roughly 12B debt vs 12B equity. Today they have 21B debt vs $6B equity. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/royal-caribbean-ceo-jason-liberty-we-re-a-little-surprised-by-the-pullback/vi-BB1qCXI6?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=043a27e672084e8c87e2299a1316a9a3&ei=13 @Baron Barracuda, you add some spicy garlic sauce to the marinara and I have no idea what is going on. The weakening consumer, I thought so too, but,....they keep on spending. I noticed the airlines having some problems getting their profit margins off of the runway and into the air...... But somehow, that does not affect cruise lines or cruise line purchases...... A huge cruise line CEO saying he can't control the stock market as he shrugs his shoulders.... Hey, "The statement balance is about back to being pre-covid (What the @@@@)." Something is amiss.... I like your debt to equity analysis. Something is amiss..... Let's just throw out a dividend to the stockholders to distract their attention,,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandgeezer Posted July 27 #3037 Share Posted July 27 20 hours ago, Volk9048 said: I think the stock dropped because early Thursday the media reported Royals earnings were less than expectations. Then 2 hours later it was corrected to say Royals Revenue, and earning were higher tha n expected but by then shares were sold, the price dropped and then those computer sellers sold more. No reason for the stock to drop with today’s report. If this was true, why didn’t the stock rebound dramatically today? Up a whole $1.50 a share. My guess would be the dividend being restored. Why? A couple of facts first. There are about 281,000,000 shares outstanding, with the $.40 per share quarterly would be almost $450,000,000 per year. 59% of the shares are held by institutional investors, 22% by insiders, and 19% by individuals. The institutional and insiders would want to knock down the debits as fast as possible so the profits would grow quicker, $450,000,000 would help dramatically. If you think the debt being paid off would lead to lower pricing you are fooling yourself. I would bet a ton of money that if they got the debt down to 0 if would change the price one bit, only lower bookings and spending would do that. Any other guesses or explanation on why the stock would fall so far so quick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted July 27 #3038 Share Posted July 27 (edited) I bought 100 more shares today 152.57. Pe of 16 showing. My thinking is with star coming and utopia just starting to sail, revenues will grow and a 16 pe is so low that I dont see a lot of downside. I'm one who looks at the pe. Peg is useful but getting harder to find. Peg being the combination of pe and growth for those who arent into stocks. As far as rhe consumer continuing to spend there are cracks. Home equity loans are up. Home sales are down. So people are borrowing against their homes but not moving as much. Almost for sure there will be a rate cut in sept but at .25 how much will it due, need .75 they say to help home sales. Everyone is waiting for rate cuts to start. Interest rates on credit cards continue to rise to 30% and one lady today said one of hers was now 38%. I think it sold off due to fear revenues growth will start to slow down, not because it has yet. Fear .. we all know the jump from last year was big because cruise fares are back over what we used to pay and higher, but the increases have to slow down. Edited July 27 by firefly333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelblu Posted July 27 #3039 Share Posted July 27 2 hours ago, firefly333 said: I think it sold off due to fear revenues growth will start to slow down, not because it has yet Exactly, the market looks ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocean Boy Posted July 27 #3040 Share Posted July 27 10 hours ago, grandgeezer said: If you think the debt being paid off would lead to lower pricing you are fooling yourself. I would bet a ton of money that if they got the debt down to 0 if would change the price one bit, only lower bookings and spending would do that. Exactly. Pricing is set by demand and what people are willing to pay. It is a simple concept that people try to complicate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 27 #3041 Share Posted July 27 They're never going to get debt to zero. Big companies have debt, that's just the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted July 27 #3042 Share Posted July 27 5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: They're never going to get debt to zero. Big companies have debt, that's just the way it is. ? none above asked or said they expected debt to go to zero. Some voices they wished the dividend money was used toward debt. No one said they thought debt would be paid off or had any such expectation. Usually your comments are spot on not addressing something out of the blue. I'm real life I have no debt and so for me the less debt they carry the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firefly333 Posted July 27 #3043 Share Posted July 27 I knew icon was built with more cabins that hold 3 or 4 people, to fit more families into one cabin but 132% capacity. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Barracuda Posted July 27 #3044 Share Posted July 27 1 hour ago, firefly333 said: I knew icon was built with more cabins that hold 3 or 4 people, to fit more families into one cabin but 132% capacity. Yikes. Icon has 2605 cabins so regular occupancy is 5210. Max capacity is 7600 which would be 145% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandgeezer Posted July 27 #3045 Share Posted July 27 6 hours ago, firefly333 said: ? none above asked or said they expected debt to go to zero. Some voices they wished the dividend money was used toward debt. No one said they thought debt would be paid off or had any such expectation. Usually your comments are spot on not addressing something out of the blue. I'm real life I have no debt and so for me the less debt they carry the better. What is debt? We haven’t had any since 1984. Living the life of Riley and no end in sight. Thank god for the stock market and 401k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare xpcdoojk Posted July 28 #3046 Share Posted July 28 8 hours ago, grandgeezer said: What is debt? We haven’t had any since 1984. Living the life of Riley and no end in sight. Thank god for the stock market and 401k. Yes, life’s self proclaimed winners is back! Woohoo, congrats, everyone else is a loser, but we have at least one winner in this life. Why do you post on this thread other than that? 😆 jc<——— thought he was a winner until this thread convinced him otherwise!🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker19 Posted July 28 #3047 Share Posted July 28 The quarterly statement is here:https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/884887/000088488724000130/rcl-20240630.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biker19 Posted July 28 #3048 Share Posted July 28 In that statement,there’s this: ”Floating Docks will construct two floating drydocks, with delivery dates expected in 2025 and 2026, that will be leased to Grand Bahama and allow it to service the entire range of cruise ships in operation and under construction, as well as much of the world’s commercial shipping fleet. ” Assuming the part about servicing ships under construction (perhaps up to Icon class size) may mean that the routine dry docks for larger ships will no longer require going to Cadiz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Engineroom Snipe Posted July 28 #3049 Share Posted July 28 Always interesting following this thread as the old adage of "Follow the Money" applies. What is RCI spending their money on and where? The why is always up for speculation. Good reading. @Biker19, good catch on the dry-docks as this will assure RCI a seat at the table as they minimize their downtime and keep a majority of their ships just an island away. They can time cruise ship repositioning in a five year rotation. Move them close during the year before and after their required dry dock but allow them to go elsewhere over their five year cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare xpcdoojk Posted July 29 #3050 Share Posted July 29 (edited) On 7/26/2024 at 8:29 PM, grandgeezer said: If this was true, why didn’t the stock rebound dramatically today? Up a whole $1.50 a share. My guess would be the dividend being restored. Why? A couple of facts first. There are about 281,000,000 shares outstanding, with the $.40 per share quarterly would be almost $450,000,000 per year. 59% of the shares are held by institutional investors, 22% by insiders, and 19% by individuals. The institutional and insiders would want to knock down the debits as fast as possible so the profits would grow quicker, $450,000,000 would help dramatically. If you think the debt being paid off would lead to lower pricing you are fooling yourself. I would bet a ton of money that if they got the debt down to 0 if would change the price one bit, only lower bookings and spending would do that. Any other guesses or explanation on why the stock would fall so far so quick? I like how you turn a 110 million dollar event into a 450 million dollar event. Kind of a convenient way to make a non factual fact even more non factual. I don’t believe they have declared this dividend for the other 3/4 of a year yet. How much does one new build cost? How does that compare to a 110 million dollar event. O, I know it is a very small event comparatively. Why does someone who made great money never buying this particular stock enjoy so much talking about this stock? Thinks that make one go hmmm, and wonder what is wrong with some people. 🤪 jc Edited July 29 by xpcdoojk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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