RCL Stock

[gkbiiii]

22 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

In todays press conference Trump even mentioned something about cruise line moving their registration to the US.  Under the PVSA that is not even possible.  The ships would have had to have been built in the US.  Also I believe it requires 75% of the crew to be US citizens.   Then there are all the US employment rules.  NCL tried to operate 3 ships in Hawaii under the US flag.  It failed because the costs were too high and they could not sufficiently staff the ships. 

I disagree, being that a US corporation could own foreign flagged vessels.  Now to only cruise US waters, the ships & crew would needed to be re-flagged American, with American workers. 

[Ourusualbeach]

6 minutes ago, gkbiiii said:

I disagree, being that a US corporation could own foreign flagged vessels.  Now to only cruise US waters, the ships & crew would needed to be re-flagged American, with American workers. 

Deleted

Edited March 26, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[Ocean Boy]

11 minutes ago, gkbiiii said:

I disagree, being that a US corporation could own foreign flagged vessels.  Now to only cruise US waters, the ships & crew would needed to be re-flagged American, with American workers. 

I am pretty sure the ship has to be built here to only cruise in the U.S.

[epanchenko]

1 hour ago, gkbiiii said:

The cruise industry was too cleaver for its own good.  Not being taxed in the US or key country's and having all ships "flagged in country's of convenience" has now bit them in the ass.  Perhaps Liberia will bailout Royal, we can wait and see!

 

I am positive they have no regrets.  They made out good while it lasted.

[Blizzard54]

1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said:

That’s not quite correct.  Cruise lines can definitely be registered and flagged in the US however that alone does not grant them an exemption to the PVSA.  To meet the requirements for the PVSA then you get into American crew and built in.

 

The two are completely different.

I stated that in my post.  They can not be registered if they were not built in the US. I also stated the crew requirements. 

[mpk]

16 hours ago, irzero said:

Tesla will never have the desirability of a Porsche or BMW. 

 

Former BMW owners and Motor Trend seem to disagree with you.

 

 

"I’ve owned three BMW 3 Series and was a diehard BMW fan. The Tesla blows those cars away"
"as a percentage of a brand’s total sales, no one has been hurt more by Tesla’s success than BMW, the responses show"
"The editors at Motor Trend magazine tested the Model 3 against the BMW 3 Series and found that the “Model 3 wins this competition because it has thoroughly rewritten the rules of what a compact sports sedan can be” "

 

from Bloomberg: Tesla’s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest

[Tall-Cruiser]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

I stated that in my post.  They can not be registered if they were not built in the US. I also stated the crew requirements. 

 

I think there is also an Ownership or Citizen requirement for the Corparation that it is at least 75%. 

[Ourusualbeach]

42 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

I stated that in my post.  They can not be registered if they were not built in the US. I also stated the crew requirements. 

Yes, they can be registered and flagged in the US.  That has nothing to do with the PVSA.  

Registration does not have anything to do with where it was built or the crew the6 carry.  There are many ships registered in the US that were not built in the US.

The PVSA has additional requirements beyond registration.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[Ourusualbeach]

26 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

 

I think there is also an Ownership or Citizen requirement for the Corparation that it is at least 75%. 

Registration has nothing to do with that. Those are only PVSA  requirements that have nothing to do with registration 

[Dennis#1]

12 hours ago, Daytonasailor said:

Wrong on NCl. Last night it did not double. It was up 102%. RCl up 15.94%.

RCL share price closed today at $40.61 per share.  Was less than $20 per share last week.

[Ourusualbeach]

52 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

I stated that in my post.  They can not be registered if they were not built in the US. I also stated the crew requirements. 

 

35 minutes ago, Tall-Cruiser said:

 

I think there is also an Ownership or Citizen requirement for the Corparation that it is at least 75%. 

 

Here is a direct quote from chengkp75 on this subject. 

 

“Perhaps you should learn your facts first.  There is nothing to prevent RCI, or any cruise line from flagging their ships in the US.  They still would not be PVSA compliant (not allowed to make strictly US voyages, or from one US port to another), but there are many US flag ships today that were built in foreign shipyards, and that pay US taxes, and employ US crew.

 

As to the number of US jobs that the cruise industry supports, those figures come from CLIA, so they can be somewhat suspect, and there is no guarantee that those jobs would not be picked up by other customers if the cruise lines were to leave.  The second aspect is that even if the cruise lines go bankrupt, all that would mean is that the company is protected from creditors (don't have to pay their bills) while the company restructures and continues on in business.  And further, the assets (the ships) are still there, and if one line goes out of business, someone else will raise capital to buy the ships and start a new cruise line.”

[Tall-Cruiser]

8 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Registration has nothing to do with that. Those are only PVSA  requirements that have nothing to do with registration 

Ok I see and thanks for the clarification. 

[The_Big_M]

15 hours ago, Biker19 said:

What is Edge class then? Most of the Solstice class is less than 10 years old.

 

I said fleet growth, not new ships. Edge has arrived - others have left.

[The_Big_M]

13 hours ago, irzero said:

Kodak's core business model was photo film which went practically extinct. Useless comparison.

Cruise lines are no different than any locked down business at the moment.

 

 

It proves the point that your statement was incorrect. Businesses do not always "adapt." Kodak is just one example.

[frank808]

I just don't get it. A nonoperational company that provides a non-essential service when it is functioning. What am I missing?

Waiting patiently on the side for a drop. I believe the 3.8bn in credit line propped up the stock for now.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Blizzard54]

6 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

I am pretty sure the ship has to be built here to only cruise in the U.S.

Generally, you are correct.  It literally took and act of congress to allow an exception for NCL America to flag 3 ships for use in Hawaii. Two were later reflagged.  One of the ships started construction in Pascagoula, Mississippi.  When the cruise line went bankrupt post 9/11.  A couple years later, NCL purchased the hull and towed to Germany to be completed there.

[Mallefiscent]

On 3/25/2020 at 9:56 AM, Blizzard54 said:

I believe he is mistaken.   Passover will be very difficult for us.  Not only are we not suppose to get together,  ours has been hosted by my brother.  He succumbed to Covid-19 last week.  Our Rabbi put up a fight and the State allowed us to have a minion.   

I am sorry to hear about your brother.  

[Biker19]

5 hours ago, The_Big_M said:

I said fleet growth, not new ships. Edge has arrived - others have left.

How does one grow the fleet but with more/new/other ships?

 

By my count Celebrity fleet was at was at 10 ships 10 years ago and is at 14 now (2 Century class left and 3 Solstice, Edge and 2 Galapagos ships added) -  with Apex due next month delayed by COVID-19.

[emeraldcity]

11 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

In todays press conference Trump even mentioned something about cruise line moving their registration to the US.  Under the PVSA that is not even possible.  The ships would have had to have been built in the US.  Also I believe it requires 75% of the crew to be US citizens.   Then there are all the US employment rules.  NCL tried to operate 3 ships in Hawaii under the US flag.  It failed because the costs were too high and they could not sufficiently staff the ships. 

I think the other problem NCL faced was that they were in competition with themselves. They pulled out two ships and then were able to charge a premium for cabins on the remaining ship.

 

 

[The_Big_M]

2 hours ago, Biker19 said:

How does one grow the fleet but with more/new/other ships?

 

By my count Celebrity fleet was at was at 10 ships 10 years ago and is at 14 now (2 Century class left and 3 Solstice, Edge and 2 Galapagos ships added) -  with Apex due next month delayed by COVID-19.

 

The response was not a comparison about date x vs date y, but a response to the argument that any ship can be deployed and capture a new market. If that were the case they would be growing much more than they had.

 

I was counting the removal of 3 ships and Galapagos only has 1 really added, the other is an interim one that they are stuck with for the moment due to the legalities. Solstice class was envisaged back 10 years back so is still the same, and Apex class has really just replaced the earlier 3. Basically it's a wash.

[RCL_Cruiser_Dan]

No help for big cruise lines

The major cruise ship lines are shut out of the $2T coronavirus stimulus package headed for a vote today in the U.S. House, despite President Trump's desire to help them. The package limits aid to U.S.-incorporated companies with a majority of workers based in the U.S., two criteria that effectively exclude Carnival (NYSE:CCL), Norwegian (NYSE:NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL). "There's a risk that cruise ships are laid up for an extended period of time," said Wedbush analyst James Hardiman. "They'll continue to burn cash without any revenue coming in the door."

[mayleeman]

On 3/26/2020 at 8:05 AM, Daytonasailor said:

Wrong on NCl. Last night it did not double. It was up 102%. RCl up 15.94%.

Has math changed? Isn't doubling the same as being up 100%?

[Blizzard54]

41 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

Has math changed? Isn't doubling the same as being up 100%?

semantics  

[ano]

Please DO NOT lose sight of what sets a company's stock price. You buy stock to share in future earnings of a company going out many years. In times like this, the future company views change daily, so that is why stock is zig-sawing. Nobody REALLY knows for sure what will happen. In addition, from my experience, investors ALWAYS overreact in both directions. 

 

So lets look at the extremes. On one end is business as usual, and we know that isn't happening, so this explains the stock drop. On the other end there are two possibilities; bankruptcy OR they could be purchased. We can most likely rule out a purchase, because all the other cruise lines are in the same boat (oh, I made a funny) and its unlikely they would have the excess cash. So that leave bankruptcy.  This is when a company doesn't have the money to pay its expenses and debts. All the cruise lines have lines of credit, and this is what they are drawing upon now for cash. 

 

So what are their expenses? We'll a good share of their crew is contractors, so no cost there, but they need a crew to maintain each ship, there are executive people employed, there are rents for terminals, and maintenance of facilities. 

 

So a lot will depend on how long this goes. I personally think it will take a vaccine to end it, and I give that 6 months at least. I think most of the cruise lines can make it that long, but some smaller ones, maybe not.

 

Also, I think it will be years before things return to "normal."  Which means some ships will likely go, and other new ones will be delayed, or cancelled. I also would be surprised to see new laws enacted.

 

I also will say, yes, I understand many people are upset about not going on their cruises, but don't lose sight that 1000's of people have lost their lives, and likely 50+ million people just in the U.S. have lost their jobs. Many people in the cruise industry no longer have jobs as well. So maybe be considerate about what you post. 

 

[rbell]

21 hours ago, Dennis#1 said:

RCL share price closed today at $40.61 per share.  Was less than $20 per share last week.

and at $34 today