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56 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

But all are safer than driving.  And flattening the curve is not about reducing the number of people who die.  It is about spacing out the number of people who die over a longer period of time.

 

And I am not advocating everyone leave their house this afternoon.  I am saying that we need to have some balance between the economics and disease control.  Shutting down the country for months will have consequences that could be far worse than the disease.  Desperate people turn to crime to obtain basic needs, layoffs result in people losing health care and dying of other medical issues, etc.

Actually, flattening the curve is about reducing the number of people who die. By having less people severely ill at one time there will be hospital resources available when people do become ill and require the services. Spread out the demand and the supply will be there... or at least that is how the theory goes. 

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1 hour ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I think you are incorrect. It has to do with the money RCL was able to borrow the other day. 

Could be the loan RCL just got, but Carnaval is up 12% today and NCL is up 30% today.  Against my wife's plea I bought Tesla last week, it is up  $150.00 over the last few days, +++now she just says sell sell sell. . 

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15 minutes ago, Daytonasailor said:

Right. Got on this board and reading about cars. Hummm  just saying  Just bought 50 shares and will watch it go up. Bought ncl last week and it’s almost doubled. 

Good choice, NCL is up 30% today.  Some panic and sell, some see the panic and buy.  Guess who comes out ahead.  Congrats.  

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20 minutes ago, Daytonasailor said:

Right. Got on this board and reading about cars. Hummm  just saying  Just bought 50 shares and will watch it go up. Bought ncl last week and it’s almost doubled. 

I don't think anyone is hoping that you are wrong. Maybe future bookings have been strong, who knows. But it seems to me that if people are opting for FCCs and this shutdown gets dragged out, there isn't going to be a lot of new money rolling in for next year as those cruises will be filled up with people who paid for this year's cruises. If the lines can avoid bankruptcy, and I certainly hope they do, I think it will be some time before they recover from this. But for people who have the time to wait a stock buy now could pay off well. Like anything in the market, you take a risk and it could pay off very well... or not.

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14 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Could be the loan RCL just got, but Carnaval is up 12% today and NCL is up 30% today.  Against my wife's plea I bought Tesla last week, it is up  $150.00 over the last few days, +++now she just says sell sell sell.

Explain to your wife the difference between short and long term capital gains.😄

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3 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Explain to your wife the difference between short and long term capital gains.😄

Stick to cruising and don't go there unless you also want to explain the concept of NPV and discount rates.

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1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

However, we really can’t rationally and intelligently begin that discussion until we seriously ramp up the testing and get a handle on who is actually infected.  The absolutely best way to control this is not shutting down entire states, but very early detection and isolation of those that are contagious. 

Too late for that here!  It did work for South Korea where they were prepared and tested early.

 

Despite being warned in January that this could be a major problem, the administration chose to ignore the warnings.  Even now, total tests are a miniscule percentage of the population.  Now we all will suffer, and cruise lines shutting down is the least of it! 

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This may have something to do with price rise:

 

(+) Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL) rose nearly 30% after board members Eyal Ofer and Arne Alexander Wilhelmsen each purchased $100 million of a $2.2 billion loan, Reuters reported. Wilhelmsen is the cruise-liner company's largest individual shareholder with an 11% interest, according to the report.

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The stock market was once considered sinful because it's gambling. And it is. Hopefully more calculated gambling than is possible with pure chance, but not horribly far off as none of us can see the future. Most of our money is in funds (and with Warren Buffet), but when there is a sale on stock that is from a company that I like and spend my money on then I tend to buy. I have 200 shares of RCL and 250 of NCL that I got for a good price and am up 1500 or so today. Yes, it likely will dip back down before long but next week and next month don't concern me, my eye is on 2025 and later and I am betting on NCL and RCL to come through this (as I will be helping them at some point 😉

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Up to $33 now, what's up with that? I should have bought when it was down at $20..........Could have made a quick $1300 on a 100 shares
Bought some earlier and have a buy limit order if RCL drops to $14.50. Still waiting and cant believe that the stock is so high right now. That 2.2bn infusion and feds saying economy stimulus plan is causing these swings up. I will just sit patiently and wait. If not and I an wrong, I was able to buy RCL and CCL shares at a low point.

Now I can get my shareholders OBC on both lines.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, yogimax said:

Too late for that here!  It did work for South Korea where they were prepared and tested early.

 

Despite being warned in January that this could be a major problem, the administration chose to ignore the warnings.  Even now, total tests are a miniscule percentage of the population.  Now we all will suffer, and cruise lines shutting down is the least of it! 

Late yes, too late no.  But it will require a ramp up in of testing capability that rivals our ramp up of building weapons during WWII.  

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2 minutes ago, irzero said:

I can tell you one thing. If the Dow can rally 11%

America is not taking this virus seriously.

The total dead doubles every 4 days and that is not slowing down in america spain or italy.

In 18 days Italy will have 100,000 dead of the pattern holds. Inside 1 month its 800k.

Given the lack of precautions being taken how long until it's in the millions in the USA.

What happens to the stock market then... the only good news at the moment is the money tree is turned on.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Not sure they will every stop the money tree. They have zero care about how much money is "printed" and how high the debt gets. I'm curious who was buying today- I know the Fed is involved everyday. I know they were involved before the virus drop. The economy can't stand on its own, hasn't been able to for a long time now.

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6 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Late yes, too late no.  But it will require a ramp up in of testing capability that rivals our ramp up of building weapons during WWII.  

Yes!  I live in Astoria, the home of the world famous Steinway pianos.  During World War II, the company switched production from pianos to gliders that would fly behind enemy lines.  If a piano company could make airplanes, one would think we would have companies that could make face masks!

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4 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Late yes, too late no.  But it will require a ramp up in of testing capability that rivals our ramp up of building weapons during WWII.  


Double that ramp up, and something close to a country lock down. 

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1 minute ago, yogimax said:

Yes!  I live in Astoria, the home of the world famous Steinway pianos.  During World War II, the company switched production from pianos to gliders that would fly behind enemy lines.  If a piano company could make airplanes, one would think we would have companies that could make face masks!

Yup.  If I was the president I would order the selective service to begin the draft.  Both genders.  Starting with graduating biology majors working our way down to any freshman who managed to get a B- or better in Bio 101.  Technically you are being drafted into the Army, but you aren’t going to BCT.  You are to report to the nearest now shuttered college or university, where you will begin training one one of three things: 1. manufacturing covid 19 tests 2. collecting covid 19 samples from patients or 3. analyzing covid 19 tests.  Length of service indeterminate, until we win the war.  We need to manufacture so many tests we can test everyone. 

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11 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:


Double that ramp up, and something close to a country lock down. 

With enough tests we don’t need a lock down.  If you are forbidden to enter any business, school, employer, public transportation or public space etc unless you have tested negative for Covid 19 in the last 4 days.  And a positive test gets you in mandatory isolation.  Well then the country doesn’t require a lock down and the epidemic will end shortly there after.  Tests are critical, the stay home orders without widespread testing is almost useless.

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5 minutes ago, irzero said:

 

You would need to be tested all the time. 85% of cases are mild or no symptoms but also infectious.

 

1 day you go visit granny in the care home and next week 100 old people are dead. 

 

Yup.  Tests every 4 days for the general population with no symptoms.  With nursing homes there would be a testing center in the parking lot.  Get a negative test before entering. Employee leaves for lunch they need another test to go back in.

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Just now, irzero said:

problem is incubation period. not to mention virus carried on surfaces by non infected people. 

The incubation period is a problem that can be fixed by testing healthy people. The good news if we can get R0 to less than 1, we can beat it. 

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38 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

With enough tests we don’t need a lock down.  If you are forbidden to enter any business, school, employer, public transportation or public space etc unless you have tested negative for Covid 19 in the last 4 days.  And a positive test gets you in mandatory isolation.  Well then the country doesn’t require a lock down and the epidemic will end shortly there after.  Tests are critical, the stay home orders without widespread testing is almost useless.


Supposedly you will be fine by Easter is what I just heard the President say on TV.  
 

The Battle is almost over, the light is at the end of the tunnel he says... so don’t worry about it. (No scarism font, it’s what he said)  Is it the truth, or words.  Time will tell. 

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