govt quietly shortens cdc 100 day no sail order

[njhorseman]

11 minutes ago, Corliss said:

No one should do anything they feel is unduly risky.  But, as far as waiting for a vaccine is concerned, vaccines are by no means sure things.  There may never be one.  The following is from a news clip from February of this year.  They have been working for decades for an HIV vaccine.

Promising HIV Vaccine Comes Up Short As Study Finds It Was No More Effective Than Placebo

“It’s disappointing, but I’m not overly surprised by it,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which funded the $121 million research effort with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. “It did not, essentially, bring it over the goal line.”

 

 

Obviously HIV is transmitted in a completely different way than COVID-19, not to mention that HIV is not caused by a coronavirus. All seven know types of human coronaviruses cause respiratory illnesses.

 

Influenza would be a more appropriate comparison disease as it also attacks the respiratory system. We do have reasonably effective influenza vaccines, so it would not be unreasonable to be optimistic about the chances of developing a COVID-19 vaccine.

[Corliss]

Average 45% effective.  Yearly deaths of 20,000 to 60,000.

[PTC DAWG]

I don't see anyway we will ever be 100% safe from a virus...

 

I would board a cruise tomorrow.  

[Marine Mom]

32 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

Sorry the projections were wrong and the scientist himself revised them down dramatically before the mitigation.  And even those numbers were way too high and have been further revised down by the IMHE first to the 100,000 - 240,000 range and then again to the 60,000 range.  We are at 26,000 currently so even those latest numbers are likely to be too high.  The models have been a failure which induced widespread panic.

I agree with you 100%.  I cannot wait to sail again!!!!!!!

[Marine Mom]

Just now, PTC DAWG said:

I don't see anyway we will ever be 100% safe from a virus...

 

I would board a cruise tomorrow.  

EXACTLY!!!

 

[njhorseman]

Just now, Corliss said:

Average 45% effective.  Yearly deaths of 20,000 to 60,000.

Because only about 50% of people in the US get vaccinated the deaths are double what they could be . And the mortality rate for influenza is a tiny fraction of COVID-19's mortality rate. We already have 26,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US from "only" 610,000 confirmed cases.

 

One of the main reasons the flu vaccine is not more effective is that fact that the manufacturing process has to start well before they have a good handle on what flu viruses are likely to be most common that year. 

[njhorseman]

12 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

I said "The models have been a failure which induced widespread panic" because that is accurate.  And it explained correctly to the poster who wondered why the ship couldn't find a port to dock in.

 

What is your evidence of "widespread panic". Governments and individuals realizing that strong actions were required to dampen the spread of an extremely dangerous disease is anything but panic, it's intelligent and necessary actions being taken.

 

 

[RaftingJeremy]

A lot of Caribbean nations are reopening to tourists in May. The government obviously hasn’t shortened the 100 day no sail as lines have already canceled through June.  Hopefully this gives them time to come up with precautions that allows them to sail. I’m optimistic 

[njhorseman]

5 minutes ago, RaftingJeremy said:

A lot of Caribbean nations are reopening to tourists in May

Your evidence of that is??? Has any country actually said that?

Just because their restrictions have currently been announced through May doesn't mean they're reopening in May. The restrictions can easily be extended,  just like the cruise line's cancellations that were originally only through April 11 or so have been extended through mid May, and in some cases longer. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by njhorseman

[ColeThornton]

3 minutes ago, RaftingJeremy said:

A lot of Caribbean nations are reopening to tourists in May.

 

 

Haven't seen any talk about that.  Actually there has been little talk about any of the smaller nations that I've seen.  I hope they get some business but I don't see that happening anytime in the near future.

[Corliss]

Sars and Mers are coronaviruses.....no vaccines yet.  Flu viruses mutate.

 

It is too soon to know for sure that flu is only a tiny fraction of Covid-19's mortality rate because we have not been able yet to determine who has or had covid.  It is believed that 25 - 50% of those infected are asymptomatic.  Every time I read a new article  the fatality rate for covid is ratched down.  From 4% to .03% (according to some researchers.)  Time will tell.  But, my original point is a vaccine is a hope here, not a reality.

[RaftingJeremy]

Just now, njhorseman said:

Your evidence of that is??? Has any country actually said that?

Just because their restrictions have currently been announced through May doesn't mean they're reopening in May. The restricts can easily be extended,  just like the cruise line's cancellations that were originally only through April 11 or so have been extended through mid May, and in some cases longer. 

My evidence is that we are returning to flying to MOST island in the Caribbean that have been canceled the last 2 months.  The hotels are reopening in a lot of places.  Demand has obviously been strong enough to begin to go again, which is good. I simply said I’m optimistic that the ships sail after June as currently scheduled. If you don’t go then that’s not my deal. 

[RaftingJeremy]

19 minutes ago, Marine Mom said:

EXACTLY!!!

 

Me too

[Corliss]

7 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

 

What is your evidence of "widespread panic". Governments and individuals realizing that strong actions were required to dampen the spread of an extremely dangerous disease is anything but panic, it's intelligent and necessary actions being taken.

 

 

I totally disagree with you.  The actions of both the States and Federal government were absolutely based on THEIR panic which was created by the well intentioned but fortunately incorrect read out by the scientists of what was going to happen to us.  It panicked me, it panicked everyone I know.  Fortunately with additional information that has become available over the last couple months I am no longer panicked.

[PortFees45]

I see we're all mostly still in the "denial" phase of the grief cycle. 

[HxFx]

20 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Because only about 50% of people in the US get vaccinated the deaths are double what they could be . And the mortality rate for influenza is a tiny fraction of COVID-19's mortality rate. We already have 26,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US from "only" 610,000 confirmed cases.

 

One of the main reasons the flu vaccine is not more effective is that fact that the manufacturing process has to start well before they have a good handle on what flu viruses are likely to be most common that year. 

Do you have a good source that shows the stats for what percentage of flu deaths are from persons not getting the flu shot? I think many don't get it because they are not in a high risk category and it may not be convenient for them at the time it comes around. I know some years I'm not able to get to it (easily - based on timing) so forego it, but I would be more proactive if I were in a high risk category. 

[njhorseman]

9 minutes ago, RaftingJeremy said:

My evidence is that we are returning to flying to MOST island in the Caribbean that have been canceled the last 2 months.  The hotels are reopening in a lot of places.  Demand has obviously been strong enough to begin to go again, which is good. I simply said I’m optimistic that the ships sail after June as currently scheduled. If you don’t go then that’s not my deal. 

We are returning to flying?? Hotels are reopening? Let's see the sources of your information?  

[RaftingJeremy]

Check out the airline schedules for May.    Check out hotel resorts in May.   My own personal schedule for May which I’m not gonna post here.  Things are beginning to slowly happen 

[njhorseman]

3 minutes ago, HxFx said:

Do you have a good source that shows the stats for what percentage of flu deaths are from persons not getting the flu shot? I think many don't get it because they are not in a high risk category and it may not be convenient for them at the time it comes around. I know some years I'm not able to get to it (easily - based on timing) so forego it, but I would be more proactive if I were in a high risk category. 

This is about children, but it does support that most children dying from flu haven't gotten vaccinated:

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20180215/cdc-most-children-dying-from-flu-not-vaccinated

 

This from the CDC doesn't directly address deaths, but shows a marked difference in other factors.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

 

I didn't really do a good job of wording the post you replied to. i shouldn't have stated so boldly that "deaths are double what they could be."

 

[njhorseman]

4 minutes ago, RaftingJeremy said:

Check out the airline schedules for May.    Check out hotel resorts in May.   My own personal schedule for May which I’m not gonna post here.  Things are beginning to slowly happen 

Airline schedules and hotels accepting bookings in  May are no more meaningful than cruise lines accepting bookings past mid May. They don't cancel months and months in advance . They're all hoping they can resume operations...it doesn't mean they can or will.

[HxFx]

2 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

 

I didn't really do a good job of wording the post you replied to. i shouldn't have stated so boldly that "deaths are double what they could be."

 

No worries, I'm genuinely curious. Was hoping there was good study! I wonder how often they ask that, in general, at hospitals. 

[njhorseman]

26 minutes ago, Corliss said:

I totally disagree with you.  The actions of both the States and Federal government were absolutely based on THEIR panic which was created by the well intentioned but fortunately incorrect read out by the scientists of what was going to happen to us.  It panicked me, it panicked everyone I know.  Fortunately with additional information that has become available over the last couple months I am no longer panicked.

I'm glad you're no longer panicked. Just because you were panicked doesn't mean the state and federal governments were.

 

Stay calm.

[RaftingJeremy]

12 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Airline schedules and hotels accepting bookings in  May are no more meaningful than cruise lines accepting bookings past mid May. They don't cancel months and months in advance . They're all hoping they can resume operations...it doesn't mean they can or will.

🤦‍♂️   Never mind.  You’re wrong but never mind 

[Wizpharm2]

10 minutes ago, HxFx said:

No worries, I'm genuinely curious. Was hoping there was good study! I wonder how often they ask that, in general, at hospitals. 

Every patient over the age of 65 is asked if they have had a flu and pneumonia vaccine. If the answer is “ no”...then they are offered while they are still in the hospital...(this assumes US hospital)

[Wizpharm2]

Just now, RaftingJeremy said:

🤦‍♂️   Never mind.  You’re wrong but never mind 

Marriott just auto cancelled my May reservation.