govt quietly shortens cdc 100 day no sail order

[RaftingJeremy]

Ok good luck 

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, Corliss said:

I totally disagree with you.  The actions of both the States and Federal government were absolutely based on THEIR panic which was created by the well intentioned but fortunately incorrect read out by the scientists of what was going to happen to us.  It panicked me, it panicked everyone I know.  Fortunately with additional information that has become available over the last couple months I am no longer panicked.

I agree with this, not to say some  measures werent good,  at least by the states.  but things cant stay shut for 3-6more months, the economy will collapse, national debt rising like nodobys business. 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, RaftingJeremy said:

A lot of Caribbean nations are reopening to tourists in May. The government obviously hasn’t shortened the 100 day no sail as lines have already canceled through June.  Hopefully this gives them time to come up with precautions that allows them to sail. I’m optimistic 

If one looks at the information  the order was going to be for 120 days.  It was shortened to 100 days.

[erdoran]

Airline cancelled my June 11 flight PHL-TXL-LHR (just the PHL-TXL leg).  American Airlines.  Shows their confidence in the summer tourist industry.

 

As far as the model being wrong and panicking everyone, the initial 1-2 million model assumed we just let Covid “wash over us” as Trump phrased it., so it was based on the initial plan, which didn’t happen.  

 

There were many more cases of Covid on NCL than were reported.  A different thread had two people on the March 8 Bliss cruise who were diagnosed after they disembarked.  I’m sure if someone did followup tracking on those cruisers, there would have been many more than reported.

 

I wouldn’t cruise until things die down because I see how fast it spreads on cruise ships.  Given that the two Bliss cruises were 7 day cruises, that doesn’t give enough time for symptoms to show up during the cruise for a large number of people.

 

Y’all who want to cruise, go right ahead and jump on the first sailing.  i cancelled my 12/20 cruise and am waiting for NCL to cancel my 6/14 out of Southampton, because they will - I can’t imagine UK being ready for cruising by then.  

[Charles4515]

 

Y’all who want to cruise, go right ahead and jump on the first sailing.  i cancelled my 12/20 cruise and am waiting for NCL to cancel my 6/14 out of Southampton, because they will - I can’t imagine UK being ready for cruising by then.  

 

There are some “enthusiasts” ( I am being nice calling them enthusiasts ) who will jump back in, not surprising that there are some people on this board who would. In the real world I doubt there will be many who will jump in. I doubt many will book cruises this year. Quite possible that cruises will never return to anything like they were.

 

 

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[DesignFreak]

1 hour ago, erdoran said:

Airline cancelled my June 11 flight PHL-TXL-LHR (just the PHL-TXL leg).  American Airlines.  Shows their confidence in the summer tourist industry.

 

As far as the model being wrong and panicking everyone, the initial 1-2 million model assumed we just let Covid “wash over us” as Trump phrased it., so it was based on the initial plan, which didn’t happen.  

 

There were many more cases of Covid on NCL than were reported.  A different thread had two people on the March 8 Bliss cruise who were diagnosed after they disembarked.  I’m sure if someone did followup tracking on those cruisers, there would have been many more than reported.

 

I wouldn’t cruise until things die down because I see how fast it spreads on cruise ships.  Given that the two Bliss cruises were 7 day cruises, that doesn’t give enough time for symptoms to show up during the cruise for a large number of people.

 

Y’all who want to cruise, go right ahead and jump on the first sailing.  i cancelled my 12/20 cruise and am waiting for NCL to cancel my 6/14 out of Southampton, because they will - I can’t imagine UK being ready for cruising by then.  

I'm with you on this.  People need to read what happens to your body when you get the worst of this flu.  Renal Liver Heart Lungs all permanently damaged.  It will never be worth the risk for me, but if they want to take it, go right ahead.  As for projections, we are doing well because the country is practically shut down.  Anyone saying it was overblown is being callous.  

 

[All-ready2cruise]

3 minutes ago, DesignFreak said:

  Anyone saying it was overblown is being callous.  

 

Or.... well, nevermind...  you can't fix that anyway... right? 

[Corliss]

Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

 

 

 

[njhorseman]

16 minutes ago, Corliss said:

Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

 

 

 

Of course earlier today you denounced this organization's projections as scaring people because they were way out of line on the high side early on..which they were...but now you're assuming their projections are accurate? Maybe they're doing a crappy job in projecting the other end too.

[Corliss]

3 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Of course earlier today you denounced this organization's projections as scaring people because they were way out of line on the high side early on..which they were...but now you're assuming their projections are accurate? Maybe they're doing a crappy job in projecting the other end too.

 

No, I don't assume their projections are accurate now.....I still think based on how the data has been matching up with the projections (which change daily based on new real time data) that they are, as you put it still "on the high side".....:-)

 

Twenty-two of the 50 states  each have less than 100 deaths currently.  Well over one half of all infections and deaths to date have been in the New York/New Jersey region.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jobeth66]

Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States.
 
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
 
 
     

Look carefully, that model is assuming 100% social distancing in all states through May.

Which isn't going to happen. We don't even have full social distancing now.

[Corliss]

23 minutes ago, Jobeth66 said:

Look carefully, that model is assuming 100% social distancing in all states through May.

Which isn't going to happen. We don't even have full social distancing now.

 

As I mentioned in a previous post those projections both for individual states and for the US overall have been repeatedly reduced both in total numbers of expected deaths and in the time lines for reaching "peak deaths" which  have been repeatedly shortened.  And this has happened with whatever level of social distancing we are currently experiencing.

 

I live in California.  The model now projects California reaching ZERO deaths by May 15.....this is much sooner than the projection from just a week ago.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

 

The IMHE model expects New York to reach ZERO deaths by May 9th.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

 

[fstuff1]

5 hours ago, Corliss said:

- snipe -

 

When were you allowed to get off the Jewel and onto an airplane?

If Hawaii didnt accept the Jewel, could you have jumped overboard and swam to the dock while Jewel was re-supplying? 

[Roger88]

7 hours ago, Corliss said:

Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

 

 

 

 

Well, I really hope that this will be the final date.. but unfortunatly many lives will be lost by then. In any case, I hope that starting June no one will die of covid. Humanity has gone through many different deseases. This one will also be fought back. Cruising must return by summer. I believe in us 

[Corliss]

1 minute ago, fstuff1 said:

 

When were you allowed to get off the Jewel and onto an airplane?

If Hawaii didnt accept the Jewel, could you have jumped overboard and swam to the dock while Jewel was re-supplying? 

Actually it was touch and go as to whether we were going to be able to disembark.  Honolulu denied the Maasdam disembarking the previous day (except for the 4 Hawaiians they had on board...:-)  What saved us was that NCL has a very good partnership with Honolulu because the Pride of America is stationed there.  But, still they required we not set foot in Honolulu, so to speak.  

We were whisked to a tarmac, frisked...:-) and put on a charter.

 

Good thing, too, since I can't swim...:-)

[fstuff1]

22 minutes ago, Corliss said:

Actually it was touch and go as to whether we were going to be able to disembark.  Honolulu denied the Maasdam disembarking the previous day (except for the 4 Hawaiians they had on board...:-)  What saved us was that NCL has a very good partnership with Honolulu because the Pride of America is stationed there.  But, still they required we not set foot in Honolulu, so to speak.  

We were whisked to a tarmac, frisked...:-) and put on a charter.

 

Good thing, too, since I can't swim...:-)

 

oh.. you departed around MArch 22?

i thought you just got off the ship this week since i saw you started posting again this week.

 

edit:

read the Jewel lost use of a propeller.

bet being a damaged ship also factored in Hawaii allowing the Jewel to offload passengers

Edited April 16, 2020 by fstuff1

[Mercury]

6 hours ago, Corliss said:

 

As I mentioned in a previous post those projections both for individual states and for the US overall have been repeatedly reduced both in total numbers of expected deaths and in the time lines for reaching "peak deaths" which  have been repeatedly shortened.  And this has happened with whatever level of social distancing we are currently experiencing.

 

I live in California.  The model now projects California reaching ZERO deaths by May 15.....this is much sooner than the projection from just a week ago.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

 

The IMHE model expects New York to reach ZERO deaths by May 9th.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

 

 

The worrisome thing is that you actually believe this.

The CDC has a totally different view:

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/CDC-predicts-another-coronavirus-battle-in-the-winter-569668081.html

 

Why would anyone be working on a vaccine if the models you quote are correct? 

[Corliss]

30 minutes ago, Mercury said:

 

The worrisome thing is that you actually believe this.

The CDC has a totally different view:

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/CDC-predicts-another-coronavirus-battle-in-the-winter-569668081.html

 

Why would anyone be working on a vaccine if the models you quote are correct? 

 

First of all, I have made clear I do not have confidence in the IMHE models that governments are using to make policy.  But, in any case the models do not say that the virus cannot or will not reappear.  The models cover the period up until August 1st.  And scientists have varied opinions as to whether we will see a return of the virus in the winter.  They are not even sure yet if the virus will be affected by weather the way influenza is.  They have very little information about this new virus.

 

Second, as I posted yesterday, "The world will be dealing with covid for years."

 

But, it will not remain shut for years.  Governments plan to expand testing and do contact surveillance and isolation for breakouts.  Creating economic catastrophe with extended shutdowns  is not a feasible strategy.

[Charles4515]

Well, I really hope that this will be the final date.. but unfortunatly many lives will be lost by then. In any case, I hope that starting June no one will die of covid. Humanity has gone through many different deseases. This one will also be fought back. Cruising must return by summer. I believe in us 

No reason cruising must return by summer.


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[Mercury]

1 hour ago, Corliss said:

Second, as I posted yesterday, "The world will be dealing with covid for years."

 

But, it will not remain shut for years.  Governments plan to expand testing and do contact surveillance and isolation for breakouts.  Creating economic catastrophe with extended shutdowns  is not a feasible strategy.

 

Exactly - we need to be able to ease the shutdowns. And even if everyone was shutdown till May 9 in New York, I still don't believe there would be ZERO deaths.

[Charles4515]

 

Exactly - we need to be able to ease the shutdowns. And even if everyone was shutdown till May 9 in New York, I still don't believe there would be ZERO deaths.

 

The shutdowns will be eased. But cruises should stay shutdown for the rest of 2020. They are not a necessity and are a Petri dish for transmission. Also the cruise industry has not been an example of responsibility. Most consumers are not going to want to cruise anyway. It is going to take a while for consumers to forget the cruise industry fiasco response. They may never forget. The era of mass cruising may be over forever.

 

 

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[EscapeFromConnecticut]

  So far, the U.S. states haven't gone nearly as extreme in the shutdowns as the Chinese did in Wuhan. Essential services remain open in all 50 states, people aren't being sealed into apartments & folks on the street (so far) don't have to produce ID papers and permission slips to be outside.

   Any gradual reopening will phase in the more necessary and low-risk services - hair salons, perhaps, car dealers, perhaps small & half-capacity restaurants.  Services that are needed by the most people  & carry the least risk.

    Cruising is neither. The folks who are cheerfully predicting a fairly quick return for this industry simply aren't facing reality: Most of the public doesn't care or actively hates cruise lines, and there is zero justification for saying this industry is necessary in any form. The cruise line executives themselves are the only people who have a shot at saving this business - so far, they've done a rancid job at it.

    

[Charles4515]

 

    Cruising is neither. The folks who are cheerfully predicting a fairly quick return for this industry simply aren't facing reality: Most of the public doesn't care or actively hates cruise lines, and there is zero justification for saying this industry is necessary in any form. The cruise line executives themselves are the only people who have a shot at saving this business - so far, they've done a rancid job at it.

I agree with you. Not a necessity. The cruise companies have acted badly and continue to do so. The reality is that the public is going to shun cruises. Probably for a long time. Maybe forever.



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[mking8288]

A handful here continued to feel immune and not at risk - might want to read this Medscape article about HCW being infected and who they are - 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928770?nlid=135054_3901&src=wnl_newsalrt_200415_MSCPEDIT&uac=175941HJ&impID=2347962&faf=1

 

Those that recovered from Covid-19 will live permanently with impaired respiratory functions - pulmonary fibrosis - the damage is not reversible and will progressive worsen over time.  Unlike the less obvious, PTSD ... (if you live thru 9/11 here in NYC like some of us, among them - first responders, you know & understood why the alarm has been sounded.)  

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pulmonary-fibrosis/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20353695

 

If you don't have anyone close to you in a nursing home, long-term care or group home, and/or don't plan on sending your children to summer camps this year (and possibly in 2021 ... if a vaccine isn't available by then and/or coupled with widespread rapid testing for all) - then - don't worry about the rising death tolls now beginning to get nationwide attention here in the US.  Most states are not reporting the deaths suspected of and/or associated with C19 - don't worry, just ask the funeral directors afterward.  The old saying, don't tell and don't ask - you don't want to know; and, what you don't know ... won't hurt as much.  

 

All these are based on the revised, changing, moving guidance of the US-CDC.  Cruise ships aren't setup as ICU and probably will have zero to 1 or 2 ventilators for acute & critical care until medevac, if at all - well, in an emergency, I am sure some of you can share one of those CPAP machine, which has been said to be acceptable, i.e. if the ship's medical center run low or out of oxygen (not saying that's what they will do)  On our 2019 NCL Escape sailing with norovirus, one of the ship's doctor was infected, unknowingly.   

 

Flattening the curves to a high plateau for a few states in the US sounds encouraging enough and speak of hope, unless you or someone you are close to is a number hidden behind the daily death tolls being counted ... If you think it isn't going to be that bad cruising in the shadow of C19, it's just like cruising with norovirus onboard - well, okay but, the infection control measures and universal precaution protocols are going to be worst, far worst.  You and/or your mate/partner/spouse & others sharing the cabin can possibly not disembark alive - that is, of course, just a possibility.  Just remember to update your wills, sign your healthcare proxy and maybe that DNR directive (although, it's probably not going to matter too much ... first responders and healthcare providers now have updated CPR protocols, guidelines & will take matters into consideration when called to a cardiac and/or respiratory on-scene emergency.)   You can find those in Medscape yourself.  

Edited April 16, 2020 by mking8288

[fstuff1]

1 hour ago, mking8288 said:

A handful here continued to feel immune and not at risk - might want to read this Medscape article about HCW being infected and who they are - 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928770?nlid=135054_3901&src=wnl_newsalrt_200415_MSCPEDIT&uac=175941HJ&impID=2347962&faf=1

 

Those that recovered from Covid-19 will live permanently with impaired respiratory functions - pulmonary fibrosis - the damage is not reversible and will progressive worsen over time.  Unlike the less obvious, PTSD ... (if you live thru 9/11 here in NYC like some of us, among them - first responders, you know & understood why the alarm has been sounded.)  

 

pulmonary fibrosis:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pulmonary-fibrosis/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20353695

 

 

Permanent damage?

i never heard of that before.

is this true for EVERYONE who got the virus or only those that showed signs and became sick?

 

also, you have a link?

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by fstuff1