Selling the whole ship

[bissel]

Correction.  Bring out a new vaccine, not a new virus!

[UUNetBill]

37 minutes ago, bissel said:

Correction.  Bring out a new vaccine, not a new virus!

LOL!  Yeah, we knew what you meant.

 

I think the thing that gets me is that there is still so much unknown about this virus - even discounting the tin-hat theories, there are still so many conflicting articles out there.  I'm actually kind of surprised that there is so much variance in the opinions of our 'medical experts' - which just goes to show that this is a weird virus (or that a lot of these 'experts' maybe aren't?)

[bissel]

I don’t think there is so much variance really in the experts’s ideas. They are learning as time goes along and lots of many smart people are working hard amid tirelessly in finding the treatments and vaccines. I believe it will come.

[SusieQft]

3 hours ago, rallydave said:

After reading the entire article don't see anything about a COVID=19 vaccinated being ready by the end of the year.

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19 disease.

[SusieQft]

I have not heard this much recently, but with some of the initial talk about vaccine development, there were strong implications at the daily press conferences that when we had a promising vaccine entering Phase 2, that the US government could subsidize ramping up commercial production simultaneous with Phase 2, so that when Phase 2 ended and approval was granted that we would not have to wait another 6+ months before the general public could get the vaccine.  It is not inconceivable that if a vaccine is proven elsewhere (eg hopefully the Oxford lab, or others) and they agree to license it to a US company, that something similar could happen even with a vaccine developed elsewhere and additional texting in the US is mandated before release.  It would be an option to speed things up, but perhaps that has already been built into the 18 month time frame being discussed.  

[Travelcat2]

There is an article that I posted yesterday. (regarding Oxford University) that hopes to have a vaccine ready in September.  Agree with Bill that even "experts" have different predictions and feelings about when a vaccine will be ready and if the virus will return in the fall or winter.  So far, no one knows the answers.  Does anyone remember when Dr. Fauci said that healthy people could still go on cruises?  This was probably back in February.  I still respect Dr. Fauci but what he said 2 1/2 months ago is not what he would say now.  People want facts and the only fact that I know of is that there are no facts!

 

Bottom line - lets try not to get upset with people that post varying news items that may not be true (or maybe they will prove to be true).   A poster on one of the many threads on this subject called some posters "ignorant".  Besides being a harsh statement, when it comes to COVID-19, we are all pretty much ignorant.  Something like this has not happened in our lifetimes and we are scrambling to figure it out.

[Travelcat2]

On 4/21/2020 at 12:13 PM, flossie009 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-52344676/coronavirus-possible-to-be-infected-with-covid-19-more-than-once

 

This is not unusual.  Look at the flu vaccinations.  They have limited protection -- the vaccine tends to be different every year ....... but, it is quite effective (most of the deaths of the U.S. were child/adults that did not have the flu shot).  It seems that the flu shot gives us immunity during the time of year that the flu is most active.

 

Here is an interesting quote regarding last season (assuming 2018-2019 season):  

 

"Approximately 80 percent of these deaths occurred in children who had not received a flu vaccination. Last season took the greatest toll on adults age 65 years and older."

[rallydave]

17 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19 disease.

Thanks Susie, that is extremely helpful and clears up so of the confusion in the article.  Did not know  that the two you quoted are synonymous.  And appreciate your knowledge.  Perhaps you can comment on another comment about this possible solution.  The article says the new vaccine is based on the MES vaccine that was approved by the FDA.  Not sure but, believe that any change to that vaccine that his new vaccine obviously has would need to go thru human trials again as it is different thus having it ready for FDA approval before the end of the year seems unlikely.  Plus the fact that this is being developed in a College of Veterinary Medicine seems unlikely to be certified for human use.  Also the article says nothing about human trials just that the vaccine is currently being tested.   So confused how it can be ready for the FDA by the end of the year??

 

Thanks for your excellent input and help in removing our confusion.

[rallydave]

35 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

I have not heard this much recently, but with some of the initial talk about vaccine development, there were strong implications at the daily press conferences that when we had a promising vaccine entering Phase 2, that the US government could subsidize ramping up commercial production simultaneous with Phase 2, so that when Phase 2 ended and approval was granted that we would not have to wait another 6+ months before the general public could get the vaccine.  It is not inconceivable that if a vaccine is proven elsewhere (eg hopefully the Oxford lab, or others) and they agree to license it to a US company, that something similar could happen even with a vaccine developed elsewhere and additional texting in the US is mandated before release.  It would be an option to speed things up, but perhaps that has already been built into the 18 month time frame being discussed.  

Excellent points.  I seem to remember a company that is developing a vaccine has gotten to the point that they are willing to spend the money to manufacture several I think million doses before the development or approval has been completed.  As to the US Government subsidizing you mentioned, believe they ordered the pill that President Trump has been touting and has it available should it be approved.

[SusieQft]

SARS (the original one) and MERS are both coronaviruses, as are many of the viruses that cause the common cold.  A great deal of money was invested in developing vaccines for SARS and MERS, but the diseases had run their course and were no longer threats before final approval and/or production was reached.  That previous work has proven helpful now, because they are building on it to be able to develop a vaccine more rapidly for SARS-CoV-2.  That is a big part of why we have so many potential vaccines entering trials so quickly.

 

Of course, they still have to go through human trials again to gain approval for the new vaccines even though some of that work was done before.  I am not familiar with the rules for veterinary medicines, but even if they are less stringent and approval for veterinary use precedes that for human use, it would not speed up the process for human trials.

Edited April 22, 2020 by SusieQft

[bissel]

susiQft

Do you think a vaccine will found? What’s the probability of success, speaking as someone who seems pretty well versed in this?

Thanks!

[SusieQft]

30 minutes ago, bissel said:

susiQft

Do you think a vaccine will found? What’s the probability of success, speaking as someone who seems pretty well versed in this?

Thanks!

Yes, I do.  IMO, the primary reason that vaccines are "not found" is because they are not a high priority.  If SARS or MERS had persisted, so would the efforts to get a vaccine to market.  If the common cold were killing people, there would be more interest in developing a vaccine.  It takes a lot of time and money to develop a vaccine. 

 

The main problem with a vaccine for COVID-19, other than taking many months, will be re-engineering it when the virus mutates.  This is the reason why we get a new flu shot every year.  I think the most likely thing is that in 2 or 3 years, we will all be getting our annual coronavirus vaccine along with our annual flu shot.  Neither will be 100% effective, but should help make the disease less virulent, even if it does not completely prevent it.

[Foggyzx9r]

Just some background reading courtesy of the BBC ref Oxford.

 

How soon will we have a vaccine

 

Oxford and what they have done.

 

They currently have 5000 volunteers. Best of luck.

 

I think that they are being a little precipitous in the forecast for September but hope springs eternal.

 

 

 

 

 

[bissel]

Thank you.

Dr. Fauci’s discussion of the Coronavirus platform would be a great idea if we decide to spend the money.

[Caroldoll]

On 4/21/2020 at 9:55 AM, RachelG said:

Correct.  On February 13, George went to New York.  After he came back, he was sick as a dog with high fever and a horrible cough.  He recovered though he still coughs some in the mornings.  About a week after he got sick, I started feeling like I was coming down with something, not a cold because I never had a runny nose.  It felt respiratory, but after a few days, I was better.

Mind you, I have a great immune system and very rarely get sick with anything. 

During that weekend, my oldest son came over for dinner, but his wife wasn't able to come.

  Then, in about a week later, my son got really sick with 104F fever and horrible cough.  By this time, we were hearing about Covid-19, but they hadn't started testing in Oklahoma at that point.  He got better, after about 4 days, though he still has a persistent slight cough.  His wife got sick with same symptoms a week after he did, but she has recovered fully. 

 

So I suspect we all had it. 

I suspect that you are right.  I have a friend who I feel definitely had it as well.  My husband and I have killer immune systems and hardly ever get even a sniffle!  Even when he had cancer we didn't know it except for a low iron level on regular testing.  Since he thankfully has not had to have any pills or chemo I feel his system is still intact.  We have figured workarounds to these restrictions and other than missing our social time out and our friends we have not had our wings clipped much.  I do hope this is over soon for all of us.  We had to cancel two cruises, the later one was because they thought he would have to have chemo or chemo pills, but thankfully this has not happened.  I am sad about the cruises though.  

[RachelG]

1 minute ago, Caroldoll said:

I suspect that you are right.  I have a friend who I feel definitely had it as well.  My husband and I have killer immune systems and hardly ever get even a sniffle!  Even when he had cancer we didn't know it except for a low iron level on regular testing.  Since he thankfully has not had to have any pills or chemo I feel his system is still intact.  We have figured workarounds to these restrictions and other than missing our social time out and our friends we have not had our wings clipped much.  I do hope this is over soon for all of us.  We had to cancel two cruises, the later one was because they thought he would have to have chemo or chemo pills, but thankfully this has not happened.  I am sad about the cruises though.  

My immune system is great.  Never really get sick, but the thing that really makes me think is that we had it is that my son, who is young and healthy but male, said he felt like death.  My daughter in law and I were barely affected, and it is less severe in females apparently.

[Caroldoll]

Just now, RachelG said:

My immune system is great.  Never really get sick, but the thing that really makes me think is that we had it is that my son, who is young and healthy but male, said he felt like death.  My daughter in law and I were barely affected, and it is less severe in females apparently.

It does seem this way, Rachel.  My girlfriend's son is a flight attendant for American and he got it.  Young and healthy.  Regarding the vaccine, I believe that all of the "extra" testing will be bypassed and it will be released fairly quickly.  You are in medicine and know about all these trials and the multitude of tests that could be fast tracked.  

[RachelG]

2 minutes ago, Caroldoll said:

It does seem this way, Rachel.  My girlfriend's son is a flight attendant for American and he got it.  Young and healthy.  Regarding the vaccine, I believe that all of the "extra" testing will be bypassed and it will be released fairly quickly.  You are in medicine and know about all these trials and the multitude of tests that could be fast tracked.  

Hoping an effective and safe vaccine is available soon!

[Travelcat2]

1 hour ago, Caroldoll said:

It does seem this way, Rachel.  My girlfriend's son is a flight attendant for American and he got it.  Young and healthy.  Regarding the vaccine, I believe that all of the "extra" testing will be bypassed and it will be released fairly quickly.  You are in medicine and know about all these trials and the multitude of tests that could be fast tracked.  

 

Fast tracking is exactly what I am hoping for.  However, some posters think that people must be stupid to want that.  My response is that, if it will save lives, we have to do it.  

 

Right now I’m watching Oxford studies and would have no problem flying to England if this were to get approved as it is predicted to do this year.

 

Just had to stick in my 2 cents.

[bissel]

Nobody is stupid to want this done, the sooner the better.. We are all anxious to be done with this. But I personally will wait until it is safe. I have no compelling reason to hurry with this. I was told a long time ago not to be “the first on the block” to try the very latest in medical treatments and procedures. It has stood me in good stead I think.

 

Also I don’t understand subjecting oneself to airports and flights to get to London or Israel to get vaccinated. Seems contraindicated, especially if one is elderly or immune compromised.

 

But that’s just me.

[Travelcat2]

Hopefully you are not calling anyone stupid as that would be most unkind - especially during these difficult times.

 

We currently have no fears regarding air travel. Planes are running half full (or less). If we flew to London (my DH's home city), many people will have been vaccinated before we would get there. For us, the main reason to do this is to make it safe for us to cruise   Cruising is a top priority for us.  All of us have our own priorities.

 

Stay safe!

Edited April 23, 2020 by Travelcat2

[SSCAF001]

I may be totally wrong but even if Oxford university vaccine is ready by September (which seems extremely optimistic) can you imagine how long it would take to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people! It will have to be produced in huge quantities first, then delivered around the world then given to people. It will take months/year for that. And i do not think that flying to the UK would speed the process because the Britains will keep the vaccine for themselves in the first place. When I see the tremendous difficulties to manage the supply chain of masks at the moment I am not optimistic about the speed of distribution of a future vaccine. Again even if one is ready by fall 2020, it will take quite a long time before being vaccinated. This is my humble opinion.
Take good care of you.
Christophe from Montreux Switzerland


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[swansong]

I agree. Living in the UK and not having left my home for four weeks currently I would be extremely upset if people were flying in from abroad to receive a vaccine which I would not be getting due to scarce resources should the requirement to remain at home still be in place. ( which due to my age could be the case).
We have been given the impression that if a vaccine is produced in the UK it would not necessarily mean that residents would be the first in line due to international agreements.

[Guerncruising]

First of all may I say hello to Foggyzx9r from an Old Firparnian.

Now, as regards a vaccine, if/should a vaccine be developed quickly do we say Britain first? Obviously I sincerely hope that any vaccine developed be available to everywhere and as soon as possible.

Secondly, who do you target for the vaccine?Should it be the 60+ age group, or, should it be the economically active in order to restart a country?

There are so many factors to be considered, but obviously it will be great to cruise again, but only if safe to do so. Consider excursions and the tour guides, at the moment quite a logistical nightmare. I am sure that eventually things will be sorted. 

[bissel]

I clearly didn’t call you or anyone stupid! I am flabbergasted that you could even read it that way. Jeez.