SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[Sunandsealover]

Here in Florida, many 65+ have been fortunate to receive both shots. I was lucky - first day it opened online for a location near me, got in, reserved a slot - went in - and to my surprise in walked Governor DeSantis seeing how things were working. So impressed with the entire process. Side effect - a little ache in my arm. 

[How much longer?]

I am 62 (with underlying conditions) and will receive my second dose of Pfizer vaccine on Wednesday.  My husband is 61 and has to wait a bit to get his.  NH has picked up the pace somewhat so hopefully that will be somewhere around March/April.  I am happy to see US numbers going down, but the variants and worldwide vaccination program still has be concerned.

[cruiseej]

7 hours ago, chrism23 said:

 There is a lot of discussion making the news nationwide about something approaching vaccination on demand.  The Biden administration has purchased vast amounts of vaccine in the last 2 weeks or so.

 

Sorry, but that seems overly optimistic. The new options on the additional vaccine doses the Biden administration just purchased provide that they will be delivered by the end of July -- so it will take until August to get them delivered and administered. Big picture, that's still great news. But it's not opening a floodgate of additional vaccine doses in the weeks ahead; the manufacturers can't suddenly produce more. 

 

Dr. Fauci recently talked about anyone being able to get a vaccine by April -- perhaps that's what you referenced as "vaccination on demand" -- but that seems very optimistic at the moment. In the United States, 3.9% of the population has received two doses, and an additional 7.3% have received their first dose. So two months into the process, only 11% of the US has received at least one dose. (Those percentages are for the total population; the numbers are higher if excluding children who are not yet eligible to receive the vaccines.)

 

Things are clearly moving faster now than they were in the first month, but there are myriad problems between completion of manufacturing and getting doses in people's arms; even after entering the distribution channels, only 72% of the vaccine does distributed have been administered. Those roughly 20 million doses distributed but not yet administered indicate there's a growing amount in the pipeline (glass half full!) but still serious problems in getting them into people's arms (glass half empty!). Even with ramped up production, improved distribution, more vaccination sites and better administration, it seems hard to believe that if we're at 11% after two months, we'll be near 75% (complete adult population) in two more months.

 

I don't want to sound overly pessimistic about vaccination in the US; I'm only suggesting to "tap the brakes" on expectations that this will suddenly happen very quickly. It will still take awhile, and that's assuming the variants don't derail the success of getting people inoculated.

 

And when we broaden our perspective beyond getting the vaccine to being able to cruise, let's remember that the US has thrown the most money at securing the most doses first, but the US represents only about 4% of the world's population. The rest of the world will take far longer to become extensively vaccinated. And until we know whether vaccinated people can transmit the virus, and how long the vaccines effectively last, it's hard to have much certainty about the world opening up to allow multi-national cruising.

 

[tosteve1]

1-2 million a day will add up. Roughly 10-20 % of the population per month! I had the privilege of helping out at a local vaccination center recently and we were jam packed. Despite the “Debbie Downers” , there is a lot of enthusiasm in our community about getting vaccinated and putting this behind us. I was especially pleased by the good showing from marginalized communities. Only 10-12% of the US has been vaccinated, but we have already vaccinated the equivalent of the entire population of Canada.  

 

[Stumblefoot]

2 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

We have already vaccinated the equivalent of the entire population of Canada.  

California has vaccinated more people than live in our entire state.

[docruth]

I’ll pop on, and be today’s “Debbie Downer”. lol

 

Truly impressive biotech, mRNA, and other breakthroughs are being made every day.

 

And ... here it comes once again ..this will still be a long slog forward.

 

We will get there. I’m afraid it’ll just take a little longer than we had hoped for a year ago.

 

Doc Ruth

 

[cruiseej]

4 hours ago, docruth said:

We will get there. I’m afraid it’ll just take a little longer than we had hoped for a year ago.

 

Doc Ruth, a year ago we thought we were going to lock down for a few weeks to slash the infection rates, and we'd be back to somewhat normal by summer. So "a little longer than we had hoped for" wizzed by a long time ago! 😉

[docruth]

17 hours ago, cruiseej said:

 

Doc Ruth, a year ago we thought we were going to lock down for a few weeks to slash the infection rates, and we'd be back to somewhat normal by summer. So "a little longer than we had hoped for" wizzed by a long time ago! 😉

 

CruiseEJ,

 

I’m not sure that was ever really true for the scientists, but especially not for the decision makers.

 

The day the 707 went into transcontinental service, and made it possible to get from rural rainforest to metropolitan train station in less than 24 hours, everything changed. The critters inside you, and just on your carry-on baggage can be hosts for nearly anything, and you’ll cross paths with thousands, they will too, on and on.

 

No, we knew this was coming, and did nothing proactively. This specific scenario has been on global public health’s radar for decades, and world governments totally dropped the ball on the two most important components of a very extensive plan. We didn’t perform vigilant disease surveillance, and even after we found it, we couldn’t maintain containment, or do contact tracing. We were in a single word, “unprepared”. Closed the gate after the horses were out.

 

I’ll stick this last bit in, at the risk of someone choosing to “flame-on”. This is not one or two shots, out and over. My opinion, and that’s all it is, is that we’ll be adding a required booster for school as the efficacy of the vaccine wanes over time. At the rate this thing mutates we’ll probably be doing it for decades. Oh wanna cruise? I guess that means us too!

 

Doc Ruth 

Edited February 17, 2021 by docruth

[QueSeraSera]

thanks @docruth for this dose of reality, even if I wish it wasn't so

 

[TLCOhio]

14 hours ago, docruth said:

This is not one or two shots, out and over. My opinion, and that’s all it is, is that we’ll be adding a required booster for school as the efficacy of the vaccine wanes over time. At the rate this thing mutates we’ll probably be doing it for decades. Oh wanna cruise? I guess that means us too!   Doc Ruth 

 

Appreciate these above excellent comments and insights regarding the probable need for doing Covid vaccines beyond just what can be done in the next few months.  Like with the flu and other such risks, we often need to take later-developed, improved and evolving vaccines.  It's the way science works and the changing nature for battling these "enemies".  

 

From US News' coverage of a CNN Town Hall program last night featuring the new U.S. President, they had this headline: “Biden Predicts All Americans Can Get COVID Vaccine by August” with these highlights: “Every American who wants a coronavirus vaccine should be able to get one by the end of July, President Joe Biden said Tuesday.  His message was more optimistic than one he delivered last week when he warned that logistical hurdles would most likely mean that many people would still not have been vaccinated by the end of the summer, The New York Times reported.  Meanwhile, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, on Tuesday revised his own optimistic estimate from last week, when he predicted the beginning of an 'open season' for vaccines by April, the Times reported.”

 

END-OF-YEAR NORMAL??:  "While the president said he did not want to 'overpromise,' he said at one point that 'by next Christmas I think we'll be in a very different circumstance, God willing, than we are today.' At another point he predicted that by the time the next school year starts in September, the nation would be "significantly better off than we are today," the Times reported.  The White House also said Tuesday that states would begin receiving 13.5 million doses each week — a jump of more than 2 million doses.  Biden's prediction came as winter storms continued to disrupt vaccine distribution. Clinics were closed and shipments were stalled in states where the pace of vaccinations had already lagged behind the national average. Vaccine appointments were rescheduled or canceled from Texas to Kentucky, the Times reported.  Many of the closures and cancellations have been in the South, where the storm sent temperatures plummeting to record-breaking lows."

 

Full story at:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-02-17/biden-predicts-all-americans-can-get-covid-vaccine-by-august

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Barcelona/Med: June 2011, with stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Great visuals with key highlights, tips, etc. Live/blog now at 252,938 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[Sunandsealover]

As it relates to future reopening, what are those savvy SS cruisers thoughts on depositing on the 2023 World Cruise. 25% of total, once confirmed, seems steep to me in comparison to other lines I’ve looked at. There are a few IT’s that would work for me so I am not completely locked in to selecting SS yet - would appreciate your opinion. Thanks much.

[worldtraveller99]

I wouldn't do it sunandsealover. We have moved our Alaska cruise to July 2022, and I trust this will happen. But that is not in the same league as attempting to go to a lot of countries worldwide. Maybe hold off until you are assured that all the countries concerned have fully vaccinated their populations? That way the cruise is more likely to happen. You will know more this time next year, I think, and probably still get your desired suite level then.

[TLCOhio]

14 minutes ago, Sunandsealover said:

As it relates to future reopening, what are those savvy SS cruisers thoughts on depositing on the 2023 World Cruise. 25% of total, once confirmed, seems steep to me in comparison to other lines I’ve looked at. There are a few IT’s that would work for me so I am not completely locked in to selecting SS yet - would appreciate your opinion. Thanks much.

 

Great follow-up above and solid, important question from Sunandsealover.  PLUS, worldtraveller99 makes an excellent point in comparing a more narrowly-focused Alaska sailing . . . VERSUS . . . going on a much-longer cruise involving so many, many different countries with varied rules, risks and conditions.

 

If you were spending $150K for a World Cruise 2023, you might need to pay down NOW $37,500 as a deposit. For my wallet, that is REAL MONEY!!  Right?  Are you a brave, bold gambler?  How much can you afford to risk?   OR, LOSE?? Requiring a 25% advanced deposit seems high and certainly helps the "cash flow" for Silversea and Royal Caribbean now and through 2022.  Personally, I am not that rich and/or risk-loving.  Other reactions?  Should we be more trusting? 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 241,369 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[taxatty]

A major reason why last year we booked the Cloud for Dec. '21 was the $1000 per suite deposit deal SS had at the time. THAT we could afford to lose--certainly not $35,000.

[chrism23]

27 minutes ago, taxatty said:

$1000 per suite deposit

I did the same thing with a two leg Argentina to Florida cruise, departing 2/22 on the Dawn.  I ate the $1000 and would willingly do so again with the same incentives.  But 35k, that's asking way too much.   Funny thing is that the 2/22 date does not look that bad right now with the right itinerary.  But this cruise spent most of the time in Brazil, which definitely is not.  

[Stumblefoot]

3 hours ago, Sunandsealover said:

As it relates to future reopening, what are those savvy SS cruisers thoughts on depositing on the 2023 World Cruise. 25% of total, once confirmed, seems steep to me in comparison to other lines...

My two-cent opinion... for anyone who can afford a World Cruise I wouldn’t think losing a deposit would matter should the line go bankrupt and no other firm steps in to purchase the company and assume the liabilities.  Sure, no one wants to lose a few tens of thousands of dollars of a deposit, but if such a loss would impact their lifestyle, or worse yet, well-being, then they probably shouldn’t be spending hundreds of thousands on a world cruise to begin with.

[Sunandsealover]

Thanks to everyone who gave me their insight. I really appreciate it. So sad that we even have to question depositing with a cruise line but no one wants to waste/lose 35k - although it appears fans of Oceania and Regent felt good about moving forward. To sell out in 24 hours is incredible. The itinerary is fabulous, IMO, but I’ll wait to see how the world recovers. 

[TLCOhio]

2 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

My two-cent opinion... for anyone who can afford a World Cruise I wouldn’t think losing a deposit would matter should the line go bankrupt and no other firm steps in to purchase the company and assume the liabilities.  Sure, no one wants to lose a few tens of thousands of dollars of a deposit, but if such a loss would impact their lifestyle, or worse yet, well-being, then they probably shouldn’t be spending hundreds of thousands on a world cruise to begin with.

 

Very solid above  "fiscal realism" from Stumblefoot!!  If you can afford $150-200K, then what is to worry for losing $30K or so with a mer deposit ?  Both are way above my bank account size.  We can only dream??!!  Great points from taxatty and chrism23.  A $1000 is more affordable and involves less risk.   Keep up the great sharing.  

 

Agree with Sunandsealover about: "The itinerary is fabulous, IMO, but I’ll wait to see how the world recovers."

 

From the Orlando newspaper yesterday, they had this headline: “Norwegian Cruise Line, sister lines cancel sailings through May amid coronavirus pandemic” with these highlights: “The date any cruise line will return to service in the U.S. continues to push further into the calendar year, with Norwegian Cruise Line announcing the latest round of cancellations for it and its sister lines.  Parent company Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. announced Tuesday that NCL, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas won’t sail at all until at least June, and that’s across the globe. Also, Canada’s recent decision to not allow cruise ships to dock until at least 2022 has lines trying to salvage some sort of potential Alaska sailing plans for summer 2021, so Norwegian has stopped taking new bookings for those sailings, although has not canceled them just yet.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/travel/florida-cruise-guide/os-bz-norwegian-cruise-line-cancels-through-may-20210216-pewx4mbsdjg7ja44s2sh7t6doq-story.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 232,437 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

[Stumblefoot]

47 minutes ago, TLCOhio said:

Agree with Sunandsealover about: "The itinerary is fabulous, IMO...

Totally agree!  Sunandsealover nailed it.  We just watched Fernando’s 2023 world Cruise video and I must say, the itinerary looks very cool.
 

I guess if we ever have a cool extra quarter of a million dollars lying around, we might just be tempted.  And, this is coming from a couple who never even wanted to cruise until we begrudgingly tried it in our early 40s and even today could not imagine being on a ship for more than 3-weeks at a time. 😁

[tosteve1]

15 hours ago, chrism23 said:

Unfortunately you are extremely right.  The New York Times is frequently running what the call the Covid Variant Tracker.  The 2/16 version was 2 full pages, now in color, looking at each variant, its origins, and characteristics that make it different.  I think the Times makes its Covid coverage available to non subscribers on their web site as a public service.  Anyone interested in the science of this should check it out.  Or maybe not.  The 2/16 piece identifies 7 distinct mutations circulating the US right now.  Common to all is that they are more contagious.  Unknown at the moment is if any of them are more virulent.  This work is the result of the United States finally sequencing genomes.  What absolutely leaps out at me here is that in a few months, 7 variants have become widespread enough to enter circulation and be identified.  Correct me if I am wrong Dr. Ruth or anyone else but never in the history of virology has a virus mutated so frequently and spread so fast.  The implications of this are potentially staggering.  A variant may become more lethal, another resistant to current vaccines, hell anything might happen.  I fear we are far away from being in a 'one shot or 2 shot' safe place.  If the virus keeps on mutating like this there will an endless progression of booster shots addressing current changes in the 'virus du jour'.  There will have to be a massive permanent infrastructure created to respond to this (any one trying to get an app't right now?) Hell there should probably be such an infrastructure in place to respond to the next virus and the next and the next.  

You realize that with the variants “raging” across the UK that cases are actually down by around 75%? What does that suggest? 

[docruth]

2 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

You realize that with the variants “raging” across the UK that cases are actually down by around 75%? What does that suggest? 

 

ToSteve,

 

Can you post a link? Our friends in the London suburbs say raging doesn't even begin to cover it. I’m not sure where the numbers that indicate cases are down by 75% comes from, as I haven’t seen that number anywhere else.

 

Cases down might suggest that vaccinations, quarantining and other public health measures are working, or the virus is simply competing with other variations of itself. That would be really interesting if the virus became it’s own worst enemy. We’ll probably know much later what was really happening, as more case data flows in for analyses.

 

Doc Ruth

[machotspur]

15 minutes ago, docruth said:

 

ToSteve,

 

Can you post a link? Our friends in the London suburbs say raging doesn't even begin to cover it. I’m not sure where the numbers that indicate cases are down by 75% comes from, as I haven’t seen that number anywhere else.

Doc Ruth

 

Maybe this helps - the official UK Government daily tracking data.  This broadly concurs with the statement made by toSteve1 in NC. 

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.162388156.1498870253.1613500540-249532212.1604064909

 

There is data in abundance on that site but the key graph illustrating new daily cases (rolling 7 day average) shows a reduction of 80% since the January peak :-

 

10,000 new daily cases September 2020 

60,000 new daily cases January 2021

12,000 new daily cases February 2021

 

In the very rural county of 100,00 people where I live (I track it daily !) :-

 

12 new daily cases September 2020

70 new daily cases January 2021

7 new daily cases February 2021

 

This dramatically improving trend is reflected across most areas of the country - urban and rural - including the various suburbs of London.    

 

So - it is still WAY too high but the trend is clearly encouraging.

I'm no epidemiologist but these improvements are unlikely to be materially affected by the aggressive vaccination programme just yet. 

 

It is far too early to claim any victory against this thing, particularly with the legacy of the horrendous death toll in the UK, but at least there is some reasonable grounds for optimism.   

As for getting back to a (new) normal 🙁???...

 

Of course, as far as cruising is concerned this pattern needs to be repeated across large parts of the globe to enable tourism to come back. Hence the need for inexpensive easy to distribute vaccines such as the Oxford/AstraZeneca.     

[machotspur]

... and this article was published on the BBC News site just 1 hour ago - with the same conclusions as my previous post.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56098313  

[worldtraveller99]

Well here is the BBC.  Strong decline in coronavirus across England since January, React study shows - BBC News

 

We are being vaccinated (though not yet us, huh) in great numbers, hope to reach all adults having 2 jabs by August. Then hopefully we can travel abroad again. Otherwise everyone (including us - booked + Matt Hancock who we shall try and avoid) is going to Cornwall!

[machotspur]

1 hour ago, worldtraveller99 said:

Well here is the BBC.  Strong decline in coronavirus across England since January, React study shows - BBC News

 

Same link/article as the post before yours 😉