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SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!


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17 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

https://www.sfgate.com/news/editorspicks/article/COVID-19-variants-vaccines-effective-San-Francisco-15961073.php
 

I wish I knew how to “snip” the appropriate segments of this interesting interview. I haven’t reviewed the studies personally but apparently the JNJ vaccine was 100% effective in preventing hospitalization in South Africa. Maybe the variant issue is overblown somewhat?

 

These are actually quite interesting findings. The scientific community has been abuzz about new mRNA vaccine technology vs. the attenuated virus method of vaccine production. One wonders where the outcome for the future of the technology ultimately lies.

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19 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

I wish I knew how to “snip” the appropriate segments of this interesting interview.

Thanks for posting!  Interesting and boosts optimism.  I do have hesitation when someone is asked their biggest regret/mistake, and answers the way she did - sounds like "I'm always right."  I've never met anyone who was always right, apart from my wife of course 🙂

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BREAKING NEWS! from the New York Times late this afternoon as they had this headline: “F.D.A. Panel Gives Green Light to Johnson & Johnson’s Vaccine” with these highlights: “Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine was endorsed on Friday by a panel of experts advising the Food and Drug Administration, clearing the last hurdle before a formal authorization expected on Saturday, according to two people familiar with the agency’s plans. The nation’s first shipments will go out in the days after that.  It will be the third shot made available to the United States in the year since the first surge of coronavirus cases began washing over the country, and it will be the first vaccine to require just one dose instead of two.  Johnson & Johnson’s formulation worked well in clinical trials, particularly against severe disease and hospitalizations, even though it did not match the sky-high efficacy rates of the first two vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/26/world/covid-19-coronavirus

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 37,529 views.

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This thread is now over 80,000 views.  Appreciate ALL who have dropped by and especially like the various posts, great questions, excellent sharing, etc.  Keep it up!!  A re-opening is getting closer.  Hopefully!!

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning, they had this headline: “Covid-19 Vaccine ‘Passports’ Raise Ethics Concerns, Logistical Hurdles" with this sub-headline: "Israel issues passes for going to hotels and gyms; the U.K. may seek proof of a shot or test for bars and offices.”

 

Here are their story highlights: “As vaccine rollouts gain momentum, governments world-wide are looking at ways for people to prove they are inoculated against the coronavirus, raising logistical and ethical concerns about whether others will be excluded from daily life.  The U.K. government recently announced it will consider whether Britons will need proof of vaccination or a negative Covid-19 test to visit bars, return to the office or attend theaters and sporting events.  In Israel, a vaccine passport was launched last week allowing those who are inoculated to go to hotels and gyms. Saudi Arabia now issues an app-based health passport for those inoculated, while Iceland’s government is doling out vaccine passports to facilitate foreign travel. Last month, President Biden issued executive orders asking government agencies to assess the feasibility of creating digital Covid-19 vaccination certificates.  Proponents of the plans say they will enable battered economies to reopen, even as vaccines are still being rolled out, allowing people to enjoy leisure activities and go to work safe in the knowledge they aren’t harming others or at risk themselves. It could also act as an incentive for people to get the shot.  But the concept is potentially fraught with pitfalls. It could discriminate against minority communities, who are less likely to accept the vaccines, according to national surveys, or young people, who are less likely to be given priority to receive them. There are questions about the ethics of granting businesses access to peoples’ health records.

 

Here is more background from their reporting:  "Some health authorities are worried that vaccine passports could give people a false sense of security. For example, it isn’t clear whether vaccines stop people from being infected and spreading the disease and whether inoculations will be rendered less effective by mutations of the virus. Scientists are racing for answers to these questions.  In the European Union, leaders agreed at a virtual summit Thursday to come up with an electronic vaccine certificate within three months that can operate across the bloc."

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-passports-raise-ethics-concerns-logistical-hurdles-11614335403?mod=hp_featst_pos3

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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@chrism23 The number for herd immunity is typically stated between 75 and 85%; I haven't seen anyone saying 95%.

 

I think it pays to keep moving in small increments on this. The situation is ever-changing, and trying to project what the US and the world will look like in 6 months or a year is pretty much impossible to assess accurately. (As a reminder, just last month, I remember you posting here about being frustrated at being behind hundreds of thousands of people for vaccine availability and depressed about how long it would take… and here you are getting your vaccine next week! 😉 )  

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OH and I had our first Oxford/Astra Zeneca inoculations at midday yesterday (30 hours ago). Second dose booked for early May. The Central NHS booking system is very simple and efficient and sent us to a vaccination centre at a sports arena in Boston, 15 miles away. 

 

Last night we both developed mild flu-like symptoms which disturbed sleep and have left us a bit washed-out today. We accept this on the grounds that suffocating to death from Covid is probably worse. 

 

While the UK's handling of the pandemic has been shockingly incompetent - and there over 120000 dead witnesses - the vaccine program has been almost miraculously efficient. 

 

Of course, there's still a long journey back to normality but it seems we are now heading in the right direction. 

Edited by Tothesunset
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2 hours ago, cruiseej said:

@chrism23 The number for herd immunity is typically stated between 75 and 85%; I haven't seen anyone saying 95%.    I think it pays to keep moving in small increments on this. The situation is ever-changing, and trying to project what the US and the world will look like in 6 months or a year is pretty much impossible to assess accurately. (As a reminder, just last month, I remember you posting here about being frustrated at being behind hundreds of thousands of people for vaccine availability and depressed about how long it would take… and here you are getting your vaccine next week! 😉 )  

 

Glad that our Philadelphia neighbor is now scheduled.  As I understand some states/Commonwealths that have been using the Federal statewide "system" have had their crashes and challenges, also.  Nobody has figured out a perfect system that has made everyone happy during these initial, ramp-up stages. More vaccine is one the way and as I predicted earlier by April, much of the vaccine "pressure" will be solved.   Glad that Tothesunset has done the first shot and is scheduled for the second one.  

 

As noted below, we received our second Moderna shot this afternoon.  So  far, all going very well.

 

Regarding "herd immunity" questions, my understanding from reading a wide variety of media articles is that the roughly 35% now saying they do not want to do a vaccine does NOT mean that all of those are "anti-vaccines" types driven by some ideology and/or mis-information factors.  Based on the data from the CDC and the Census Bureau research, most who are not excited about getting the vaccine are driven much more by age and geographic factors.  To be blunt, those younger do not sense the "risk" and/or believe they are "bullet-proof" and immune to any types of medical dangers.  Some of that "mentality" is based on their view of "truth" and their narrow perspectives, lack of life histories, etc.   Will share added background and data later. There is, of course, legitimate debate and question as to exactly what "herd immunity" means, becomes effective, length of protections, etc.  

 

From MSN News and CNBC yesterday, they had this headline: “CDC scientist says the U.S. is 'nowhere close' to herd immunity” with these highlights: “The U.S. is 'nowhere close' to achieving herd immunity from Covid, and more transmissible variants mean even more people will need to get vaccinated to reach it, a CDC scientist said Friday.  Herd immunity occurs when enough people in a given community have antibodies against a specific disease, either through vaccination or prior exposure to the virus. That makes it difficult to spread from person to person and even protects people who don't have any immunity.  'Currently we know that the majority of the U.S. population is not immune to SARS-CoV-2 and variants may cause this portion of the population that is not immune to increase,' said Adam MacNeil, an epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  To reach the threshold of herd immunity while battling new, more contagious virus strains, a higher proportion of the population needs to get vaccinated, MacNeil said at a Food and Drug Administration meeting reviewing Johnson & Johnson's application to authorize its Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use.  Scientists don't believe immunity lasts forever. It weakens over time, and that could exacerbate the outbreak as previously protected people become vulnerable to infection, MacNeil said.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-scientist-says-the-us-is-nowhere-close-to-herd-immunity/ar-BB1e3jpT

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,423 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

Just received this afternoon my second Moderna shots.  So far, all is going well nearly two hours after getting "jabbed".:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

IMG_5782.thumb.jpeg.fc119ce01817271a8902801efb1e909e.jpeg

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26 minutes ago, QueSeraSera said:

Got Moderna shot 1 today, so far only a little soreness at injection point

 

Moderna round 1 wasn't bad. My arm was sore 24h later but it lasted for quite a while.

 

Moderna round 2 is the one that kicks harder. Still, as everyone above has said - way better than the "other way" to gain immunity.

 

My younger sister is now 3 months out from her COVID-19 diagnosis. Still not feeling normal, still intermittently and randomly has no sense of taste/smell, and still has days when she feels too tired to do much of anything. On a good day she can run maybe 5 miles. This doesn't sound too bad until I tell you that a year ago, she participated in the "world marathon challenge" where she ran seven full marathons on seven consecutive days. I hope she gets back to something near that level but who knows?

 

So glad to hear about all of you getting the vaccine. What a year it has been.

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3 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

 

Glad that our Philadelphia neighbor is now scheduled.  As I understand some states/Commonwealths that have been using the Federal statewide "system" have had their crashes and challenges, also.  Nobody has figured out a perfect system that has made everyone happy during these initial, ramp-up stages. More vaccine is one the way and as I predicted earlier by April, much of the vaccine "pressure" will be solved.   Glad that Tothesunset has done the first shot and is scheduled for the second one.  

 

As noted below, we received our second Moderna shot this afternoon.  So  far, all going very well.

 

Regarding "herd immunity" questions, my understanding from reading a wide variety of media articles is that the roughly 35% now saying they do not want to do a vaccine does NOT mean that all of those are "anti-vaccines" types driven by some ideology and/or mis-information factors.  Based on the data from the CDC and the Census Bureau research, most who are not excited about getting the vaccine are driven much more by age and geographic factors.  To be blunt, those younger do not sense the "risk" and/or believe they are "bullet-proof" and immune to any types of medical dangers.  Some of that "mentality" is based on their view of "truth" and their narrow perspectives, lack of life histories, etc.   Will share added background and data later. There is, of course, legitimate debate and question as to exactly what "herd immunity" means, becomes effective, length of protections, etc.  

 

From MSN News and CNBC yesterday, they had this headline: “CDC scientist says the U.S. is 'nowhere close' to herd immunity” with these highlights: “The U.S. is 'nowhere close' to achieving herd immunity from Covid, and more transmissible variants mean even more people will need to get vaccinated to reach it, a CDC scientist said Friday.  Herd immunity occurs when enough people in a given community have antibodies against a specific disease, either through vaccination or prior exposure to the virus. That makes it difficult to spread from person to person and even protects people who don't have any immunity.  'Currently we know that the majority of the U.S. population is not immune to SARS-CoV-2 and variants may cause this portion of the population that is not immune to increase,' said Adam MacNeil, an epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  To reach the threshold of herd immunity while battling new, more contagious virus strains, a higher proportion of the population needs to get vaccinated, MacNeil said at a Food and Drug Administration meeting reviewing Johnson & Johnson's application to authorize its Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use.  Scientists don't believe immunity lasts forever. It weakens over time, and that could exacerbate the outbreak as previously protected people become vulnerable to infection, MacNeil said.”

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-scientist-says-the-us-is-nowhere-close-to-herd-immunity/ar-BB1e3jpT

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 30,423 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

 

Just received this afternoon my second Moderna shots.  So far, all is going well nearly two hours after getting "jabbed".:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

IMG_5782.thumb.jpeg.fc119ce01817271a8902801efb1e909e.jpeg

We get our #2 Moderna this Monday so let us know "post op" how it is going.

Thanks,

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3 hours ago, jpalbny said:

 

Moderna round 1 wasn't bad. My arm was sore 24h later but it lasted for quite a while.

 

Moderna round 2 is the one that kicks harder. Still, as everyone above has said - way better than the "other way" to gain immunity.

 

My younger sister is now 3 months out from her COVID-19 diagnosis. Still not feeling normal, still intermittently and randomly has no sense of taste/smell, and still has days when she feels too tired to do much of anything. On a good day she can run maybe 5 miles. This doesn't sound too bad until I tell you that a year ago, she participated in the "world marathon challenge" where she ran seven full marathons on seven consecutive days. I hope she gets back to something near that level but who knows?

 

So glad to hear about all of you getting the vaccine. What a year it has been.

I hope your sister gets better soon.

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18 hours ago, Tothesunset said:

 

 

While the UK's handling of the pandemic has been shockingly incompetent - and there over 120000 dead witnesses - the vaccine program has been almost miraculously efficient. 

 

 

Not sure what the UK could have done to avoid the Pandemic apart from stop all travel into the UK from day one. 

Our experience of Vaccine arrangements were first class .Telephone call re first jab at local rugby club 250 yards away.Organisation first class on time and no queuing.Big thank You to the NHS and all the volunteers .Second jab due in four weeks same venue will be telephoned as before.

Well done to all concerned in the midst of the unprecedented situation faced by the Government in early 2020.

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2 minutes ago, brimary said:

Not sure what the UK could have done to avoid the Pandemic apart from stop all travel into the UK from day one. 

 

They could have done what Taiwan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Thailand etc have done. Early lockdown, proper track, trace and isolate and met the developing pandemic with a degree of concern rather than schoolboy bravado. To be fair, having achieved a world class deaths per capita total it's comforting to know that only 200 or so countries have done better. 

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15 hours ago, jpalbny said:

Moderna round 2 is the one that kicks harder. Still, as everyone above has said - way better than the "other way" to gain immunity.   My younger sister is now 3 months out from her COVID-19 diagnosis. Still not feeling normal, still intermittently and randomly has no sense of taste/smell, and still has days when she feels too tired to do much of anything.

 

Sorry that J.P.'s sister is still facing the Covid challenges.  As of this morning, it has been nearly 20 hours since getting our second Moderna vaccine shot and, so far, my wife and I have felt no side-effects or challenges.  BOTH of us are doing well and feeling fine.   Glad that the Johnson & Johnson shot been officially approved and will start being used this coming week.  

 

From MSN News and former USA Today travel expert Gene Sloan yesterday, there was this headline: “The 1 number that will tell us when cruising will resume, according to a top cruise executive” with these highlights: “When will cruising resume?  The answer is relatively simple, one of the cruise industry’s top executives suggested on Thursday: When case counts of COVID-19 come down to manageable levels.  'I think the prevalence of the disease in our own country and around the world will be the greatest indicator of when we can resume cruising,' Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings president and CEO Frank Del Rio told Wall Street analysts. The resolution of those hurdles is ultimately dependent on a drop in the prevalence of the disease in society, Del Rio suggested.  In short, if cruisers want one indicator to watch for a sense of when cruising will resume, it is the case count numbers that are posted every day.  Noting that the numbers have been on the decline in recent weeks, Del Rio on Thursday sounded upbeat about the prospects for a resumption of cruising in North America in the not too distant future — perhaps as early as the summer.”

 

Here is more from his reporting:  "After the test cruises take place, the CDC roadmap calls for an additional 60-day process where lines would apply for approval to restart sailings. Del Rio suggested that 60-day process wasn’t set in stone.  'The conversations we’ve been having with (the CDC), it’s not a hard 60 days,' he said. 'I think it could be less. We’ve not received that kind of specificity on these guidelines.'  Del Rio estimated that from the moment the CDC gives Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings a green light on beginning the test cruise process, it could be around 90 days until the company has its first vessel back in operation.  Del Rio suggested the company was waiting to cancel further departures until it was sure they can’t operate. In the other words, the company still is holding out at least a sliver of hope that a handful of ships could restart operations in June."

 

My current best guess is that Labor Day (early September) will be the slow commencing of a cruise line start-up.  Then, it will be somewhat of a ship-by-ship re-opening a week-at-a-time at maybe 50% capacity on each ship.  Think of the word as . . . "STAGED".  Slow and steady. Hoping there are not any big flare-ups from Covid-19 on the ships between the staff and passengers.  Then, many months after late 2021, it might be as to when, maybe, life on the ships will be more like the "good-old-days" with no masks, people interacting, having regular shows, etc.  

 

Reactions?  Right or wrong?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/tips/the-1-number-that-will-tell-us-when-cruising-will-resume-according-to-a-top-cruise-executive/ar-BB1e4JO1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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From the Wall Street Journal Friday, they had this headline: “Nearly Half of U.S. Population 65 and Older Has Received a First Covid-19 Vaccine Dose” with this sub-headline: "First shots have been administered to nearly one in five Americans."

 

Here are more of the story highlights: “Nearly half of the U.S. population ages 65 and older has received the first dose of the coronavirus vaccine.  The U.S. has doubled the pace of vaccinations since President Biden took office on Jan. 20. Nearly one in five Americans have received a first dose of the vaccine.  The vaccine rollout has faced occasional setbacks. Last week, winter storms created a backlog of roughly 6 million doses and delayed vaccine shipments. A new and more transmissible variant of the virus has also been spreading across the country.  The percentage of people in the U.S. intending to get the vaccine is rising, according to a poll released Friday by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF). The survey of 1,874 adults ages 18 and older found that 55% of Americans say they want to get vaccinated as soon as possible or have already received at least one dose, up 8 percentage points over the past month.”

 

From tis KFF polling, here are some of their findings: "As COVID-19 vaccination distribution efforts continue across the United States, the latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor reports that a majority (55%) of U.S. adults now say they have received at least one dose of the vaccine (18%) or that they will get it as soon as they can (37%), up from 47% in January and 34% in December. The share that wants to 'wait and see' how the vaccine is working for others before getting vaccinated themselves decreased from 31% in January to 22% in February, while a persistent one in five say they will get the vaccine 'only if required for work, school, or other activities' (7%) or will 'definitely not' get vaccinated (15%).  While the share that is most enthusiastic to get vaccinated increased across racial and ethnic groups, Black and Hispanic adults continue to be more likely than White adults to say they will 'wait and see' before getting vaccinated. Nearly four in ten Republicans and three in ten rural residents say they will either 'definitely not' get vaccinated or will do so 'only if required,' as do one-third (32%) of those who have been deemed essential workers in fields other than health care."
 

Here is more background from their national data in the U.S.: "Having a close relationship with someone who’s been vaccinated is correlated with individuals’ own intentions to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Among those who have not yet been vaccinated, seven in ten of those with a household member who’s been vaccinated and about half of those who say a close friend or family member has been vaccinated say they want the vaccine 'as soon as possible,' compared to about a third of those who don’t have a close relationship to someone who’s gotten the vaccine. Black and Hispanic adults, those with lower incomes, and those without a college degree are less likely than their counterparts to say someone close to them has gotten the vaccine, reflecting other KFF analysis showing similar disparities.  The perceived side effects of the vaccine continue to be a top concern for the public, with eight in ten in the 'wait and see' group saying they are concerned they might experience serious side effects if they get vaccinated. Large shares of those who want to 'wait and see' – including majorities of Black and Hispanic adults – also say they are concerned that they might get COVID-19 from the vaccine.  Half of Black adults and about one-third Hispanic adults (35%) say they are not confident that the COVID-19 vaccines have been adequately tested for safety and effectiveness among members of their own racial or ethnic group."

 

Full stories and links at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nearly-half-of-u-s-population-65-and-older-has-received-a-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-11614357767

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-february-2021/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Completed 2019 summer with Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on Silver Musse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

 

From the Wall Street Journal Friday, here is the CDC charts showing which states are progressing best in getting that vaccine first shot accomplished as a percentage of their overall population.  Interesting mix for where (and not) various states are doing it with better success?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this visual larger/better!)

304619619_ScreenShot2021-02-28at12_11_14PM.thumb.png.17b5003a81775433ef6b84b12741ea94.png

 

From the Kaiser Family Foundation national polling, here are their key demographic differences as to how these vaccines are viewed. Notice significant age, educational differences, etc.?:

723218863_ScreenShot2021-02-28at12_33_41PM.thumb.png.e6ec055aca9f9c6b9d003e762fdcc784.png

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1 hour ago, Tothesunset said:

They could have done what Taiwan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Thailand etc have done. Early lockdown, proper track, trace and isolate and met the developing pandemic with a degree of concern rather than schoolboy bravado. To be fair, having achieved a world class deaths per capita total it's comforting to know that only 200 or so countries have done better. 

 

Geez, Maybe we could have done that in the US too!

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29 minutes ago, silkismom said:

I just read, somewhere, that Auckland NZ is shutting down again for 1 case.

 

“It ain’t over until the fat lady sings” was a popular expression when I was a kid. Something  about knowing when a long opera was over from the conclusion of the final aria?

 

Well, in my opinion, madam has not even put on her costume yet! <grin> At least when it comes to determining whether we’re closer to the beginning or the end of the pandemic, irrespective of whatever we all might want.

 

Be mindful that the Spanish Flu lasted decades, polio lasted millennia, and those are just two examples from history. Both from back in time, when it was impossible to travel halfway around the earth in a day. Today is different.

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