Will first class be worth it anymore?

[oldfashioncruiser]

I decided several years ago that since I am getting too old to put up with being uncomfortable and with my husband hating flying these days that we will book first/business from now on.   I have been checking a few flights and first class tickets are out of slight.  Although coach is three times what I am use to.    But with the new rule of not using the middle seat on flights, will coach be more comfortable?                  Has anyone been on a flight since they changed the rule?

[CruiserBruce]

Far too soon to tell what is going to happen. Not sure what you are looking at, but the flights I am monitoring are in the same price range as always, and we fly first/business. If fares are up...it could definitely have to do with the reduced capacity of every other seat vacant, but without specific examples, hard to say. Every city pair has it fare affecting issues, which can be different from any other city pair.

 

My initial thought is to expect fares to drop to encourage people to fly more. But, again, with reduced capacity, maybe be difficult for airlines to do that.

 

If social distancing is important, business or first with half as many people would be important.

[waterbug123]

There are anecdotal reports about the middle seat situation in various frequent flyer forums.  1.  Airlines are being cagey with their verbiage but it will not be a permanent change, so depending on when you plan to fly, I wouldn't bank on the middle seats being empty.  2.  Some airlines may be saying empty middle seats is their goal in the short term, but seem to be making some exceptions when demand warrants.

 

 

[oldfashioncruiser]

13 minutes ago, CruiserBruce said:

 

 

My initial thought is to expect fares to drop to encourage people to fly more. But, again, with reduced capacity, maybe be difficult for airlines to do that.

 

 

That is my thought also but I have been looking at future cruises since we each have 6 FCC's and have noticed that deposits are much higher.  A South American 4 week one is requiring $600 each for deposits.  If they want to get more people to book, why not $100 deposits.   I am still waiting for a refund from an excursion I canceled in January so how long will it take to get these deposits refunded if it gets canceled.

[fbgd]

I pay for premium cabins primarily for the space...yes, having a middle seat free in the cheap seats helps but for the most part you still have limited legroom, width, recline etc. 

 

International FC is a different story altogether. Value proposition is still there even with reduced service elements on many airlines. Lying across three seats in coach will never be better than even the worst flat bed. 

[CLCruzer]

On 5/5/2020 at 6:00 AM, oldfashioncruiser said:

I decided several years ago that since I am getting too old to put up with being uncomfortable and with my husband hating flying these days that we will book first/business from now on.   

My wife & I flew First Class on American and Delta last year and were very disappointed.   Yes - there was more room and real food but these improvements were not worth the extra cost over coach.   On the other hand,  we flew Premium Economy on West Jet and Air France and felt like we received excellent service at a far more reasonable cost.   

 

   These experiences leads me to believe that it is the quality of the airline that makes for an enjoyable flight experience and not the class of service or cost of the ticket. 

 

Just one observation,

Rich

[fbgd]

14 hours ago, CLCruzer said:

My wife & I flew First Class on American and Delta last year and were very disappointed.   Yes - there was more room and real food but these improvements were not worth the extra cost over coach.   On the other hand,  we flew Premium Economy on West Jet and Air France and felt like we received excellent service at a far more reasonable cost.   

 

   These experiences leads me to believe that it is the quality of the airline that makes for an enjoyable flight experience and not the class of service or cost of the ticket. 

 

My guess is that you're comparing apples and oranges.

 

As Delta don't offer first class on international flights I'll assume the AA and DL flights you reference were shorthaul domestic flights.  AFAIK, WestJet and Air France only offer Premium Economy on longhaul flights and longhaul and shorthaul products are always going to vary massively. 

 

Very rough generalization here but I'd compare domestic first class (as in 2-2 narrowbody recliner seats) to longhaul premium economy. 

[CLCruzer]

9 hours ago, fbgd said:

Very rough generalization here but I'd compare domestic first class (as in 2-2 narrowbody recliner seats) to longhaul premium economy. 

 

I completely agree with your observation.   

 

Thank you for the conversation.

Rich 

[bennybear]

It’s confusing to compare for sure.   West jet offers a plus or premium on all routes flown by their 737s, domestic or international.    It is often comparable to US airlines domestic first.   They only offer true business class with lie flat beds on their Dreamliners, which also have premium economy and economy.

Edited June 6, 2020 by bennybear

[rkacruiser]

I prefer to book First Class for domestic flights and Business Class for international flights.  I do so because I enjoy both more room as well as the amenities offered for FC/BC passengers.  It's my understanding that the amenities are/have been reduced quite a bit.  That discourages me from considering another trip anywhere that would require a flight.  

[SelectSys]

On 5/5/2020 at 6:15 AM, CruiserBruce said:

Far too soon to tell what is going to happen...

 

My initial thought is to expect fares to drop to encourage people to fly more. But, again, with reduced capacity, maybe be difficult for airlines to do that.

 

If social distancing is important, business or first with half as many people would be important.

 

My thought initially was the same as yours.  However, I am now thinking people will pay a premium to travel in the short run.  All capacity is being constrained and the demand for travel is actually pretty high as people are tired of being at home and money is in most people's pockets.   This to me suggests higher prices for a while until things go back to "normal" and capacity returns.  This may take more than a year to get travel somewhat back to old levels of capacity.

 

Bottom line - I just paid 50% more than my old normal for a haircut and I may need to do the same for travel.

 

Edited June 7, 2020 by SelectSys

[rkacruiser]

19 hours ago, SelectSys said:

 

My thought initially was the same as yours.  However, I am now thinking people will pay a premium to travel in the short run.  All capacity is being constrained and the demand for travel is actually pretty high as people are tired of being at home and money is in most people's pockets.   This to me suggests higher prices for a while until things go back to "normal" and capacity returns.  This may take more than a year to get travel somewhat back to old levels of capacity.

 

Bottom line - I just paid 50% more than my old normal for a haircut and I may need to do the same for travel.

 

 

Your view is interesting to me and is confirmed by what I am seeing taking place in the marketplace, which I really don't understand given the circumstances.   Cruise line stock prices are rebounding--irrationally to me--Boeing's stock price has been on a tear recently--with no positive news about Boeing of which I am aware--Delta's CEO has stated more than once that air travel will not return to 2019 levels for 2-3 years.  My haircut did not cost 50% more than it had (should have because of the amount of hair that needed to be cut!), but it did increase.  Grocery prices have increased.  On CC, lots of posts on many Message Boards from prospective cruisers in late 2020 and into 2021 and 2022.  The interest does seem to surely be there.  

[FlyerTalker]

1 hour ago, rkacruiser said:

Your view is interesting to me and is confirmed by what I am seeing taking place in the marketplace, which I really don't understand given the circumstances.   Cruise line stock prices are rebounding--irrationally to me--Boeing's stock price has been on a tear recently--with no positive news about Boeing of which I am aware--Delta's CEO has stated more than once that air travel will not return to 2019 levels for 2-3 years.

 

Much of this is due to the enthusiasm of "retail investors" who are following either or both of the following "strategies".

 

The first is BTFD - Buy The !*%$# Dip.  This is lots of folks buying in at the depressed levels, thinking that they now have lots of upside gain to be made on these buys.  And so retail customers and day traders (yes, they still exist) are pushing volumes in these markets.

 

The second is less thought out, but it's a variant of the old "greater fool" theory.   Seeing moving prices and volume, again those retail investors are buying on the expectation that someone else will take it off their hands at a higher price.

 

And, for a while, these things happen - feeding off themselves.  But at a point, the music stops and there aren't enough chairs for everyone.

 

While this "source" is everywhere from spot-on to looney (you can be the judge of its veracity on any particular post), here's a very recent post about this investing:

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robin-hood-traders-pile-carnival-cruise-ship-operator-extends-suspension

 

 

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, FlyerTalker said:

And, for a while, these things happen - feeding off themselves.  But at a point, the music stops and there aren't enough chairs for everyone.

 

 

Yes.  That is what is taking place in my opinion.  

[SelectSys]

18 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Much of this is due to the enthusiasm of "retail investors" who are following either or both of the following "strategies".

 

...

 

While this "source" is everywhere from spot-on to looney (you can be the judge of its veracity on any particular post), here's a very recent post about this investing:

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robin-hood-traders-pile-carnival-cruise-ship-operator-extends-suspension

 

 

 

I think more is due to the enthusiasm of the Fed and its support than retail investors:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/stanley-druckenmiller-said-hes-been-humbled-by-market-comeback-underestimated-the-fed.html

 

The Zero Hedge view of the same story is interesting  

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-06-08/ive-been-far-too-cautious-druckenmiller-surrenders-fed-says-hes-missed-v-shaped

 

I also go "hot and cold" on Zero Hedge, but I do like their free speech ideals which seemingly are more and more under attack these days.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/about

our mission:

• to widen the scope of financial, economic and political information available to the professional investing public.
• to skeptically examine and, where necessary, attack the flaccid institution that financial journalism has become.
• to liberate oppressed knowledge.
• to provide analysis uninhibited by political constraint.
• to facilitate information's unending quest for freedom.

our method: pseudonymous speech...

anonymity is a shield from the tyranny of the majority. it thus exemplifies the purpose behind the bill of rights, and of the first amendment in particular: to protect unpopular individuals from retaliation-- and their ideas from suppression-- at the hand of an intolerant society.

 

[Ashland]

First/Business will still be worth it to me when I can get a good rate.

I'm not flying again until March 2021 LAX-SJU and hoping meal service in some form 

will be available by then on AA or DL.

[waterbug123]

On 6/6/2020 at 1:50 PM, bennybear said:

It’s confusing to compare for sure.   West jet offers a plus or premium on all routes flown by their 737s, domestic or international.    It is often comparable to US airlines domestic first.   They only offer true business class with lie flat beds on their Dreamliners, which also have premium economy and economy.

 

Are you referring to true premium economy, which is generally only offered by airlines for transcontinental flights, or maybe rarely on transcontinental flights?  Or are you referring to the economy plus products that many airlines offer?  They are vastly different.  If the latter, it is likely NOT like US airlines domestic first, which I would rank well ahead of any time of economy plus product.  Economy plus is usually only some extra legroom, but the exact same seat as regular economy, no wider, and no fewer per row.  Also, may include free cocktails, but otherwise the same meal service, or lack thereof, as regular economy.  Domestic first, on the other hand, is a much wider seat and fewer per row than economy, and often includes meal service on many flights when it is not offered in economy.

 

On 6/6/2020 at 4:42 PM, rkacruiser said:

I prefer to book First Class for domestic flights and Business Class for international flights.  I do so because I enjoy both more room as well as the amenities offered for FC/BC passengers.  It's my understanding that the amenities are/have been reduced quite a bit.  That discourages me from considering another trip anywhere that would require a flight.  

 

This is true in the short run, but much of what has been cut for virus-related reasons will return. 

 

On 6/7/2020 at 4:27 PM, rkacruiser said:

 

 

 

[rkacruiser]

6 hours ago, waterbug123 said:

This is true in the short run, but much of what has been cut for virus-related reasons will return. 

 

I truly do hope you are correct.  Being a patron of a restaurant or of any transportation service where the staff has to wear a mask and the guests are expected to wear a mask as much as is practical makes me think:  do I really want to spend my money for such an experience where I could find the ambiance of that experience disappointing and unsatisfactory?  

[bennybear]

@waterbug123  West Jet is a true premium economy.   I know what you mean re the others, having flown Alaska’s and deltas.  Better than economy but only slightly.

 

West jet has larger seats,  a two two configuration, more leg room, separate cabin, drinks including alcohol and hot meals, two suitcases, but no lounge access.   Early boarding.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by bennybear

[waterbug123]

19 hours ago, bennybear said:

@waterbug123  West Jet is a true premium economy.   I know what you mean re the others, having flown Alaska’s and deltas.  Better than economy but only slightly.

 

West jet has larger seats,  a two two configuration, more leg room, separate cabin, drinks including alcohol and hot meals, two suitcases, but no lounge access.   Early boarding.

 

 

 

If they are offering true premium economy on domestic routes, that's impressive.  Delta, and others, typically only offer the TRUE premium economy internationally.  Just the economy+ type products domestically

 

[bennybear]

They call it plus/premium,   it’s equivalent to business on Air Canada or first on US domestic.   But it is like true premium economy which is what they call it on  their Dreamliners which also offer the low flat beds in Business.  I think they all like to keep us confused because there is no standardization.   So one needs  to do their research and check out seating on seat guru.  

[tompeter]

5 hours ago, bennybear said:

They call it plus/premium,   it’s equivalent to business on Air Canada or first on US domestic.   But it is like true premium economy which is what they call it on  their Dreamliners which also offer the low flat beds in Business.  I think they all like to keep us confused because there is no standardization.   So one needs  to do their research and check out seating on seat guru.  

Wonderful info...Thanks!