Don't Bet on NCL Making It Says The Motley Fool

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, hallux said:

I was thinking that, and if that's what the poster I quoted means with that abbreviation it tells me all I need to know about them...

Yep, and of all you attendant assumptions, some are 100% correct and the other are expectedly misguided.  And yes, I am looking very much forward to making cruising great again.

[PortFees45]

10 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Yep, and of all you attendant assumptions, some are 100% correct and the other are expectedly misguided.  And yes, I am looking very much forward to making cruising great again.

What a shock. 

[SeaShark]

7 minutes ago, PortFees45 said:

Cuomo has never once referred to COVID-19 as the "European Virus." He uses the same terminology that that doctors and scientists do - like any responsible public official or "leader" should. 

 

Never once, you say?

 

Here is a link for you directly to the Governor's Official website where the transcript is printed out and you can see that he did, in fact, call it just that.

 

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-photos-rush-transcript-amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-23

 

"That is because of what the people in this state did. If you had said when we started this, yes we have more cases than anyone else, yes we had this European virus attack us and nobody expected it, but we are not only going to change our trajectory, we're going to change the trajectory more dramatically than any place else in the nation."

[boatseller]

16 minutes ago, PortFees45 said:

Cuomo has never once referred to COVID-19 as the "European Virus." He uses the same terminology that that doctors and scientists do - like any responsible public official or "leader" should. 

 

Um..so, there's this:  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-cuomo-labels-coronavirus-the-european-virus-in-latest-press-briefing

 

And a whole page of search results to corroborate.  Just saying...

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, PortFees45 said:

I love it when people with no idea what they're talking about try to sound smart. 

So feel free to quite while I'm ahead.  Or would you like me to point out why the PopSci article really wasn't the best choice to counter with?

 

Anyway, this thread started about why NCL will or won't make it.  Sorry to break it to all the naysayers, but if any of the cruise lines are going to make it, it will be because of people like me who aren't afraid of the ccv and have no reason to be.

 

You can try all the scary rhetoric and you want, but ultimately, they numbers are on our side.  And you can all thank us later when the experts announce that we've achieved herd immunity.  Glad to do our part in protecting the future.

 

Oh, and the attempted shaming...little late to the game: https://thepointsguy.com/news/critical-points-travel-shaming-problem/

[graphicguy]

3 hours ago, boatseller said:

Nice try, but if want this interpreted as anything but psychobabble, you need to identify the actual contradiction...go ahead...I'll wait...  Ok, thought so.

 

If the split is pushing even, what's the difference?  It's just evidence that Stay at Home wasn't as effective as promised.  Why should cruising or theme parks be any different?  Stay home, 40%, cruise 60%.  I think your problem is with the people who have decided that 20% difference isn't work cancelling life over.  If I get ccv on a cruise on August or at Publix in October, I don't see the difference...other than I skipped a fun cruise.

 

Please, find the exact quote where I say the ccv is fake or anything even similar...go ahead...I'll wait...Ok, though so.

 

Now go find the exact quote where I say I won't practice the safety guidelines...go ahead...I'll wait...Ok, though so.

 

To remind, all I've ever said is that I have no conditions that make me susceptible to complications from the ccv, like the vast, vast majority of people.  I don't stay at home during flu season either.  I didn't cancel cruises during Zika or Chikungunya either.

 

When cruising returns, I'll be there with everyone else who feels the same way.  If you have reason to worry, don't cruise.

Amen

[ColeThornton]

2 hours ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

.......... But can I just say, the horse is dead, guys!

 

That's what happens when you don't put a face mask on the horse!

[PortFees45]

12 minutes ago, boatseller said:

 

Um..so, there's this:  https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/andrew-cuomo-labels-coronavirus-the-european-virus-in-latest-press-briefing

 

And a whole page of search results to corroborate.  Just saying...

Okay, I was wrong. You found a SINGLE instance, from one press conference, out of the dozens and dozens Cuomo gave. Congrats. And guess what? It was stupid of him to call it that. He should use the terminology of doctors and scientists, which he generally does except for this single sentence out of literally months of briefings. 

[PortFees45]

11 minutes ago, boatseller said:

So feel free to quite while I'm ahead.  Or would you like me to point out why the PopSci article really wasn't the best choice to counter with?

 

Oh go ahead, this should be fun...

[SeaShark]

9 minutes ago, PortFees45 said:

Okay, I was wrong. You found a SINGLE instance, from one press conference, out of the dozens and dozens Cuomo gave. Congrats. And guess what? It was stupid of him to call it that. He should use the terminology of doctors and scientists, which he generally does except for this single sentence out of literally months of briefings. 

 

Wow...a SINGLE instance (not "a single instance") you say. How many instances are required to refute the claim that "Cuomo never once.."??

 

One seems sufficient for me. 

[PortFees45]

1 minute ago, SeaShark said:

 

Wow...a SINGLE instance (not "a single instance") you say. How many instances are required to refute the claim that "Cuomo never once.."??

 

One seems sufficient for me. 

I don't care what you think, just like probably 90% of the people on these boards. I'm just too lazy to learn how to use the ignore feature. 

[SeaShark]

5 minutes ago, PortFees45 said:

I don't care what you think, just like probably 90% of the people on these boards. I'm just too lazy to learn how to use the ignore feature. 

 

Another "mistake"? If there was any truth behind your claim you wouldn't have bothered to quote me to try to sell your "Cuomo never once..." story in the first place.

 

Yeah..."I don't care what you think, I'm just gonna read it, quote it, and respond to it even if I have to stick my foot in my mouth to do so". 

 

You don't need an ignore feature...just exert some self-control and don't respond at all. But we all know that isn't the real reason. HGH. 

[chipmaster]

21 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:

THE SKY IS FALLING
THE SKY IS FALLING

Let me ask you this.  DO YOU have sufficient cash in hand to survive 12-18 months with zero income?  Also the stock went up almost 18% today!

 

The fact the stock is up today or down tomorrow has no material bearing on what the real business prospects of.   I could site worldcom or many other that had great stock prices before they imploded.

[chipmaster]

5 hours ago, boatseller said:

40% of new cases in New York are people obeying the Stay at Home Order.  Clearly staying at home is very risky, will you ask them to sign the same waiver?

 

You do realized that before you stayed at home you likely were all about and that the incubation period is anywhere from 3-7 days with a medium of 5 days, so your statement doesn't support or refute anything you are trying to imply, LOL

[AdoraBelle]

52 minutes ago, boatseller said:

You can try all the scary rhetoric and you want, but ultimately, they numbers are on our side.  And you can all thank us later when the experts announce that we've achieved herd immunity.  Glad to do our part in protecting the future.

Hey, do you know what helps tremendously with herd immunity, with far less loss of life? Vaccines. Go get sick before then if you want, infect some people in your community on the way, but no, I won’t be thanking you for it. My gratitude goes to the healthcare workers and scientists. 

[CaptainWes]

The Fool is like Jim Cramer: Just do the opposite of whatever they are saying and you'll do fine. I sailed on the Sky in March, I'm an NCLH shareholder ( got in @ 8.80) and also booked on the Pearl in November. I'm very optimistic about the future. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by CaptainWes
Added stuff

[PortFees45]

40 minutes ago, AdoraBelle said:

Hey, do you know what helps tremendously with herd immunity, with far less loss of life? Vaccines. Go get sick before then if you want, infect some people in your community on the way, but no, I won’t be thanking you for it. My gratitude goes to the healthcare workers and scientists. 

And the grocery clerks and cashiers that any pig who "refuses" to wear a mask is recklessly endangering. 

 

I'm sure the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people who have lost a friend or loved one to this disease in the last 2 months, many of them likely because of people who "refused" to act responsibly and wear a mask, are so thankful. What a disgusting sentiment. I wish these people would just admit they don't give two flips about anyone but themselves. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by PortFees45

[boatseller]

11 minutes ago, AdoraBelle said:

Hey, do you know what helps tremendously with herd immunity, with far less loss of life? Vaccines. Go get sick before then if you want, infect some people in your community on the way, but no, I won’t be thanking you for it. My gratitude goes to the healthcare workers and scientists. 

I don't worry about Influenza which has taken ~337,000 (CDC) over the last 9 years despite vaccines and treatments.

 

TikTo...ok, I'll stop there.

[boatseller]

32 minutes ago, PortFees45 said:

And the grocery clerks and cashiers that any pig who "refuses" to wear a mask is recklessly endangering...people who "refused" to act responsibly and wear a mask

Look, I'll make it even easier, find us the exact quote of anyone in the boards who "refuses to wear a mask" while cruising if asked to do so by the cruise line.  You haven't found one from me so here's your change at redemption.

 

To be clear, people who say they won't cruise if masks/face coverings are required don't count since they are following the guidance.  For an extra 2 points, find someone who refuses to wear a mask if asked and refuses to isolate if they get sick.  And in case you though you had me, yes, I stand by my prediction that compliance will taper off quickly as everyone on board, or in a theme park, knows what they're getting into.

 

For some perspective, the current guidance for Disney Springs and Universal CityWalk require face coverings except while dining or drinking.  Considering this is could be 30% of cruise time, it's already an uphill battle.  At some point, you're going to have to accept that most people are not going to be afraid of the ccv.  NCL and the other lines will survive and cruising will be back sooner than you want, with out without you.

[boatseller]

2 hours ago, PortFees45 said:

Oh go ahead, this should be fun...

"Thomas Jefferson University Hospitals...14 medical centers in Philadelphia...New York City...12 of their patients treated for large blood blockages in their brains during a three-week period had the virus. Forty percent were under 50, and they had few or no risk factors."

-- 40% of 12 is 4.8.  "few or no risk factors" Sure, let's split the difference, 2.8 had risk factors, 3 did not.  -> 3 <-

 

"large blood blockages...covid-19 surge to more than 32...More than half of were covid-19 positive...The covid-19 patients... younger and mostly without risk factors."

--"More than half", let's be generous and say 20.  "Mostly without risk factors" so let's say 7 had factors.  That leaves 13. -> 13 <-

 

So, roughly 16 unexplained cases of stroke in 'younger' adults (<50).  Comparatively, this is not large numbers of young people passing from complications of the ccv.  As with the case of the Spanish soccer coach, it is likely that some of these had undiagnosed conditions prior to falling ill.

 

Again, I would urge everyone to consult their physician, as I did, and understand your situation.  Then make an informed decision on whether or not cruising or theme parks, or movie theaters, etc., is right for you.

 

Frankly, I think it's terrible you just assume everyone else is looking to be some careless super-spreader.  You still need to definitively answer the flu question by the way.

[PortFees45]

47 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Frankly, I think it's terrible you just assume everyone else is looking to be some careless super-spreader.  You still need to definitively answer the flu question by the way.

No, I don't. Anyone who tries to justify their boorish, selfish, ignorant refusal to abide by quarantine guidelines and cites influenza only reveals themselves to, by definition, know absolutely nothing about the scientific, medical and epidemiological reality of this situation. You don't know if you're a super-spreader or not. THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT. Stay home. IT'S. NOT. ABOUT. YOU. 

[PortFees45]

An interesting Rorschach test would be to ask who is the bigger jerk here? The Costco employee, or Captain America?

 

 

[pmd98052]

"Let me ask you this.  DO YOU have sufficient cash in hand to survive 12-18 months with zero income?  "

 

 

Yes. Its responsible to have rainy day funds to cover an extended period without income. Anyone who doesn't isn't being fiscally responsible. (and yes I realize that is super easy to say and very hard to do, if not impossible, for many)

 

It still shocks me that 1 week into this large corporations who had recently spent billions on stock buy backs claimed they had zero rainy day funds.

 

On the "healthy people don't die from COVID19" - I've never heard such crazy statements. It is a high contagious diseases (far more contragious than Ebola) with no vaccine or medical treatment that can kill anyone. Yes the case fatality rate is much higher if you are overweight, have asthma, diabetes, or are old. However a very very large percentage of the worlds population fall into exactly those cateogories.

 

The scariest part of this is people just don't understand the power of large numbers. Even if death rate for COVID is under 1% population sizes make that an incredble number of dead. To say stay at home orders haven't reduced it dramatically is also ignoring science. Latest scientific projections yesterday said instead of 1.5M current USA cases there would have been 35 miillion (do the 1% times 35 million math). Given you can carry this to others without any symptoms at all makes it a much bigger problem.

 

Its good that people will want to go on cruises as soon as possible and I wish them well. Until a vaccine or other treatment exists I think cruiselines are not going to have many passengers. They'll fill ships sure - just not fleets.

[esm54687]

On 5/17/2020 at 10:57 PM, cruiser4801 said:

Motley Fool just issued this article:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/17/will-cruise-stocks-ever-be-profitable-again.aspx

 

Bottom line, NCL's recovery will depend on how long Covid-19 sticks around.  I would not bet on a quick recovery.

Isn't that the same for any hospitality or travel entity? I'm from Massachusetts and Cape Cod is going to struggle with lack of tourist and Provincetown has cancelled parades, celebrations, concerts, restaurant openings for the entire 2021 season.... Boston has cancelled the famed 4th of July concert, etc. 

[Joan18]

17 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:

 

 

Silly move seeing it has made huge gains over the last few sessions  A mere 34% increase.

I invest, I don’t place bets....