September Restart in Europe?

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, york survey said:

You are absolutely right in that the 30 - 50% figures related to EBITDA and not what most people would consider a break even point

 

However it is the point at which the cruise line starts to lose less money running the cruise then not 

 

As such I think it does represent the point where the cruise is viable but not profitable 

 

 

Believe Jason Liberty (cfo) was talking break even EBIDTA, at the ship level,  estimating the load factor at which fares plus onboard revenues would equal the difference in expenses between a fully operating ship vs one in warm layup.   This ignores interest, depreciation,  and corporate overhead such as marketing, legal, HR, call centers, and course Fain's salary.  

Edited June 9, 2020 by Baron Barracuda

[hcat]

5 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

Believe the 30% ships Fain referred to are  Royal's mega sized Oasis, Quantum and maybe Freedom class.  Apex would likely be a 50% but X's small M class ships might have even higher break-even.  Given the choice, expect Fain would prefer to get the big boys (girls?) back on line first.

Royal has always pushed the big mall ships over Celeberity's  M and even S Class.

They do not  appeal  to us at all.   We did enjoy  our two EDGE  cruises but were hoping to return to M and S Class for next bookings,,if we book.

Edited June 9, 2020 by hcat

[sheffield]

I cannot imagine any cruise ship would want US or UK passengers sailing on it. Nor would I think many people would go to the UK to get on a cruise ship. What if your 14 day quarantine is still around? Will any country let a ship dock if there are people sick with covid 19? Surely there are many questions to be answered before cruising in Europe starts again. Also I would have thought in Asia as well 

[Germancruiser]

And those ships are exactly the ships I keep avoiding. Those " Big Baby´s" of RCI. I was booked for the Apex sailing starting this coming satureday- just out of curiosity if I  like the new X idea´s!

[Despegue]

3 hours ago, upwarduk said:

Itinerary? Possibly only a Round Britain cruise.

At the moment, Gov.UK still has an advisory in place, against Foreign Travel for any reason, so I doubt too many people would consider driving to the port, if the ship sailed to foreign countries. Although Spain is opening up for tourism, they are not willing to take visitors from UK, as our infection rate is still too high.

Starting 8th June, people coming into UK have to provide an address where they will need to isolate in quarantine for 14 days. A fine of £1000 in England if they are found breaking this. 

Who is going to go on a foreign holiday, to take a further 14 days off work on their return?

Frankly, the UK Gov can shove their Foreign Travel advise up their behinds. Rant over.

[dutchclogs]

21 hours ago, chemmo said:

Well, even if Celebrity were ready for a cruise from Southampton this September/October we wouldn’t be...

 

It is sad, we were booked on the Silhouette in October, we had used the excuse of our 40th wedding anniversary to book the PH....We swapped a few weeks ago to the same cruise next year, glad we did the suites are disappearing fast...

 

 

Do you think a lot of people are lifting and shifting?   I am very curious how booked Silhouette is in September .  When I've altered a booking in the past, the cabin becoming free has shown up immediately on the web site but this appears  not to be the case now.  Did you move  your cruise to Silhouette in September  2021 ?  I am surprised that so many  suites  are already booked for  the 27 September 2021 Canary Islands cruise.

 

[groryjm]

1 minute ago, dutchclogs said:

I am surprised that so many  suites  are already booked for  the 27 September 2021 Canary Islands cruise.

 

People who are booking to replace a 2020 cruise with FCC have an extra 25% so I suspect are splurging on better cabins at seemingly little extra

 

[chemmo]

1 hour ago, dutchclogs said:

Do you think a lot of people are lifting and shifting?   I am very curious how booked Silhouette is in September .  When I've altered a booking in the past, the cabin becoming free has shown up immediately on the web site but this appears  not to be the case now.  Did you move  your cruise to Silhouette in September  2021 ?  I am surprised that so many  suites  are already booked for  the 27 September 2021 Canary Islands cruise.

 

 

Our cancelled October 2020 room is showing as available.

 

Our September Canary Island Cruise 2021 (we have done similar before) does generally have a big British contingent. Mainly older guests looking for a bit of sunshine. I think it is generally busier 2021 because people want to cruise but don’t want to risk the complications of flying (cost and health risks). 

 

1 hour ago, groryjm said:

People who are booking to replace a 2020 cruise with FCC have an extra 25% so I suspect are splurging on better cabins at seemingly little extra

 

 

Agree, I think many people have resigned themselves to not having a holiday this year so have decided to treat themselves next year...

 

I also think generally the whole outbreak scenario has given lots of people a reminder that every day is a precious gift and ‘Don’t put off until tomorrow those things on your bucket list...’. 

 

[TeeRick]

16 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

You're correct to ask.  The 30% - 50% referenced in the conference call referred to an accounting calculation called EBITDA.  Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization.  EBITDA is another way to look at net income and does not include the very large interest costs.  They would still incur huge loses in a 30% "breakeven scenario" but it might be about equal to the cost of just floating around without passengers. 

Good points. As you state, not much difference than the hemorrhaging going on with idle ships.  I believe that the initial cruises will sail at a substantial loss and it will be like using a "loss leader" on an ad circular.  Cruise lines need to get a kick start soon and hope for the best.  Build back passengers over time.  Try out the new required operations and fine tune them.  Re-train the crews.  Re-train the onshore staff.