Carnival to Dump Six Ships

[davecttr]

Is starting cruises a game of chicken? Which line is going to dip their toes in the water first. If they then suffer a COVID incident the press will have a field day etc etc.

 

suggestion, only pay a deposit you can afford to lose and don't pay the final balance until you are confident the cruise will go well.

[Captain_Morgan]

8 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

As harsh as it is, I see a staggered start come October which means not every itinerary is going to sail. I don’t think we’ve see the last cancellations. Sadly, some people will get caught.

 

I think even October is 'early' to begin cruising even with a staggered start as lets face it the current situation isn't improving apart from pubs reopening 🍺 and the weather getting better but the industry is still in disarray and likely won't improve in the coming months.

As for speculation of where Oceana is off to, my first guess is always China because they buy everything 😆 and pandemic aside, they've still got the world's largest population and by extension more opportunities for revenue generation given global travel restrictions.

[molecrochip]

1 minute ago, Captain_Morgan said:

 

I think even October is 'early' to begin cruising even with a staggered start as lets face it the current situation isn't improving apart from pubs reopening 🍺 and the weather getting better but the industry is still in disarray and likely won't improve in the coming months.

As for speculation of where Oceana is off to, my first guess is always China because they buy everything 😆 and pandemic aside, they've still got the world's largest population and by extension more opportunities for revenue generation given global travel restrictions.

Interestingly, RCI have found that China wasn’t ready for their biggest ships. Princess are doing better with their Royal class ships. It appears that Chinese passengers quite like the smaller ships!

[cruisenewbie1976]

3 minutes ago, Captain_Morgan said:

 

I think even October is 'early' to begin cruising even with a staggered start as lets face it the current situation isn't improving apart from pubs reopening 🍺 and the weather getting better but the industry is still in disarray and likely won't improve in the coming months.

As for speculation of where Oceana is off to, my first guess is always China because they buy everything 😆 and pandemic aside, they've still got the world's largest population and by extension more opportunities for revenue generation given global travel restrictions.

The current worldwide picture might not be improving, mainly because of the Americas as already discussed. But the crisis across Europe is hugely improved and getting better. 3 months is a long time and a lot can happen between now and then but we could be in a much better position by then (equally we could be in a worse position too!). 

[Captain_Morgan]

14 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Interestingly, RCI have found that China wasn’t ready for their biggest ships. Princess are doing better with their Royal class ships. It appears that Chinese passengers quite like the smaller ships!

 

Absolutely a big gamble that failed for the likes of RCL, NCL, and Princess when it comes to deploying their mega ships to the Asian market as none of them have succeeded there despite the likes of Majestic Princess and Norwegian Joy being geared toward the Asian market....bet someone had some explaining to do on that one!!

 

11 minutes ago, cruisenewbie1976 said:

The current worldwide picture might not be improving, mainly because of the Americas as already discussed. But the crisis across Europe is hugely improved and getting better. 3 months is a long time and a lot can happen between now and then but we could be in a much better position by then (equally we could be in a worse position too!). 

 

I agree the European situation is improving, but if the Hurtigruten model is what lines are working toward its hardly something to get excited about.....30% capacity, coastal cruises with no shore leave....what's the point unless there's immense value for price paid?  Add to the fact the proposed changes as outlined in other threads and it doesn't sound like cruising as it will be known in the future is anything to get excited about

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

No plans for such announcement. Finance on new ships are a bit like a mortgage on a new build house. They are already in place. The cancellation of a new build shows you have no confidence in the market.

 

Additionally, new ships are cheaper to run and more efficient. Carry more passengers thus higher net income.

 

Older ships will leave the fleet.

If P&O think they will be unable to make full use of Iona2, there are other cruise lines in the Carnival stable that probably could, Aida and Costa already have Excel ships in their fleets, and Carnival itself has one due later this year or early next. So there would be no need to cancel the order.

[molecrochip]

I think that Carnival will be more working similar to the model announced by MSC than Hurtigruten.

[molecrochip]

2 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

If P&O think they will be unable to make full use of Iona2, there are other cruise lines in the Carnival stable that probably could, Aida and Costa already have Excel ships in their fleets, and Carnival itself has one due later this year or early next. So there would be no need to cancel the order.

I don’t think there is any concern regarding Iona2. Perhaps what is up in the air is how badly shipyard delays will affect.

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

Let’s put it like this, a ship is generally sold when it has reached 10-15% of its original value. During its use, it will have enabled income of way more than its original and running costs (I.e. net profit) so making a loss on the final sale is a paper issue only.
 

If you have a ship that’s due to go in say, 2 years, and in that time you need maintenance and a dry dock which maybe total £30m+ then your calculation changes to look at total cost over next two years. Bear in mind that this is a company who would rather have £5m in the bank now from a sale and then £30m less costs over the next 2 years to conserve cash.

Add in the some extra factors: 1. Maybe the smaller cruise line set to buy the ship might not still be in business; 2. Surplus capacity in the market devaluing a ship for sale; 3. The ability to transfer 90%+ of passengers booked on this ship to alternative voyages in the remaining fleet thus not loosing income; 

 

These are my thoughts rather than insight but you can see why, today, as opposed to 9 months ago, it may now make sense. Sadly.

An excellent post and far better and more relevant examples than the retail comparison given by me to try to illustrate the point!

[mercury7289]

3 hours ago, drsel said:

Dear Graham and Mercury, With all your experience and wisdom, try analysing cruise prices and find out which are the best value, instead of counting leaves or watching the grass grow 

 

 

Simply haven't the need to.

🍷

[Presto2]

Now I've got over the shock and am using less tissues - just wondering what will happen to those who are booked on Oceana for June next year. Do they have their cruise cancelled and have to rebook? Not us, but my brother and sister in law have a cruise booked on her having enjoyed the cruise with us so much last April. They are going to be gutted,  but if we can help them to rebook on another nice ship it will help I suppose. 

 

 

[Selbourne]

29 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Is starting cruises a game of chicken? Which line is going to dip their toes in the water first. If they then suffer a COVID incident the press will have a field day etc etc.

 

suggestion, only pay a deposit you can afford to lose and don't pay the final balance until you are confident the cruise will go well.

I agree entirely about the press. They will be watching the first cruise ships to sail like hawks. There is a lot of very selective press reporting going on at present. As an example, a lot of comment was made about Bournemouth beach and lack of social distancing, evidenced by low down panning camera shots that made it look as though you couldn’t put a 10p piece between people. However, directly overhead drone shots showed that people were in household groups with at least 2 metres between them and even the experts acknowledged that walking past someone at less than 2 metres in the open air on a hot day presents no risk. About the same time, thousands of Liverpool football supporters were celebrating their win in mass numbers, all in very close proximity, shouting, singing, hugging and high fiving each other (all of which present considerable risk of disease spread) and yet the press commentary was largely reporting it as a good news story. As is often said, the media rarely let the facts get in the way of a good story!

[grapau27]

11 hours ago, wowzz said:

Graham, you certainly know how to impress a lady! 

Paulines choice.

McDonald's 2 minutes drive from her hairdressers and beach 5 minutes drive from there.

🤫😎

[Presto2]

3 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

I agree entirely about the press. They will be watching the first cruise ships to sail like hawks. There is a lot of very selective press reporting going on at present. As an example, a lot of comment was made about Bournemouth beach and lack of social distancing, evidenced by low down panning camera shots that made it look as though you couldn’t put a 10p piece between people. However, directly overhead drone shots showed that people were in household groups with at least 2 metres between them and even the experts acknowledged that walking past someone at less than 2 metres in the open air on a hot day presents no risk. About the same time, thousands of Liverpool football supporters were celebrating their win in mass numbers, all in very close proximity, shouting, singing, hugging and high fiving each other (all of which present considerable risk of disease spread) and yet the press commentary was largely reporting it as a good news story. As is often said, the media rarely let the facts get in the way of a good story!

 

Too true - many elements / parts of the press should be ashamed of how they have dealt with the pandemic.

[grapau27]

59 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Interestingly, RCI have found that China wasn’t ready for their biggest ships. Princess are doing better with their Royal class ships. It appears that Chinese passengers quite like the smaller ships!

When we sailed on Grand Princess out of San Francisco last November to Hawaii there was a sizeable number of Chinese passengers on board.

Interestingly we saw a lot of Chinese passengers drinking tap water in the bars which doesn't help the bar profits.

Edited July 5, 2020 by grapau27

[molecrochip]

3 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

When we sailed on Grand Princess out of San Francisco last November to Hawaii there was a sizeable number of Chinese passengers on board.

Interestingly we saw a lot of Chinese passengers drinking tap water in the bars which doesn't help the bar profits.

True but the amount the Chinese market tend to spend in the Casino and gift shops help make up for it. Additionally the Chinese market tend to book ship sold excursions.

[Son of Anarchy]

Quite a few years ago we did couple of short cruises out of Hong Kong on Legend of Seas.  Lots of Chinese pax, mind you it was Chinese New Year.

 

The cruise director said that although LoS was a small ship by RCI standards, she was (at that time) one of the largest cruise ships operating in that area.  She was the only RCI ship we've been on so can't comment on whether her casino was bigger than others of that company, but it was massive - well to me anyway.  Rammed every night.

[Denarius]

As regards the sale of ships.

Ships are depreciating assets and are presumably written down each year in the company's balance sheet. Assuming that my presumption is correct, a loss will only be made if a ship is disposed of for less than its written down value. For an elderly ship the latter may be relatively small.

[Son of Anarchy]

In December I was at a Captain's interview with Andy? Willard on Ventura.  When asked about the lifespan of a cruise ship he said that from a Captain's perspective - 25 years.  From an accountant's perspective 30 years.  Maybe in the current climate those numbers have reduced hence the speculation regarding Oceana.

 

It will be interesting to see whether boxes full crockery and other corporate stuff gets off loaded tomorrow & Tuesday.

 

If she does go, I would quite like one of those big benches from the prom deck with her name carved on the backrest!  

[Presto2]

9 minutes ago, Son of Anarchy said:

If she does go, I would quite like one of those big benches from the prom deck with her name carved on the backrest!  

 

Oh you're starting me off again -----   

 

 

[Josy1953]

12 hours ago, mercury7289 said:

We tried that, but very difficult in the wind!

My other half is out in the garden right now with the lead buster sucking up the leaves that have blown down ovenight, it looks like September rather than July.  We soon won't have a problem counting leaves on the trees, there won't be any.😱

[drsel]

I think that Carnival will be more working similar to the model announced by MSC than Hurtigruten.

What was the model announced by MSC?

[drsel]

IMHO, These are Carnival corporation ships of the last century, some of which are likely to go.

Others will remain in service.

 

Costa: 

Victoria 1996 (already sold as scrap)     

neoRomantica - 1993 (no sailing after Sep 2020)

 neoRiviera - 1999 (already sold to AIDA)

neoClassica 1991 (sold to Bahamas Paradise)

Mediterranea. 2003 (all sailings cancelled)

 

AIDA:     

AIDAcara 1996

 

HAL:   

Maasdam - 1993

Veendam - 1996

Rotterdam - 1996

 

P&O-Aus: 

Pacific Dawn - 1991 (sold to CMV)

Pacific Aria - 1994 (sold to CMV)

Pacific Explorer - 1997

 

Carnival : 

Fantasy - 1990

Ecstasy - 1991

Sensation - 1993

Fascination - 1994

Imagination - 1995

Inspiration - 1996

Destiny 1996

Elation - 1998

Paradise - 1998

Triumph - 1999

 

 

Princess: 

Sun Princess - 1995 

Sea Princess - 1998

Pacific Princess - 1999

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[molecrochip]

14 minutes ago, drsel said:

2 hours ago, molecrochip said:

I think that Carnival will be more working similar to the model announced by MSC than Hurtigruten.

What was the model announced by MSC?

Sorry meant NCL. https://www.ncl.com/uk/en/why-cruise-norwegian/book-with-confidence#safety

[braemar12]

It may be the case that Oceana goes to Australia to replace one of the earlier Sun-class cruise ships.