Carnival to Dump Six Ships

[joeecco]

Just now, Presto2 said:

 

That's the million dollar question ….

I’d be really interested to see something legal in black and white, they could just be planning her to be layed up for much longer than the rest for the fleet if they, let’s say, are planning to return with limited ships for UK sailings only like Dream cruises are planning?..

[Presto2]

I am a cup half empty sort of person so am not hopeful. I sort of expected her to go next and the pandemic may have meant that she needs to leave sooner rather than later. Strange if she goes for scrap as she had a good makeover not too long ago. Can't remember what is happening with her sister ship

[molecrochip]

Just now, joeecco said:

I’d be really interested to see something legal in black and white, they could just be planning her to be layed up for much longer than the rest for the fleet if they, let’s say, are planning to return with limited ships for UK sailings only like Dream cruises are planning?..

I don't disagree but in a long term lay-up I'm not convinced they would remove the theatre electro-tech equipment. I also dont  think that much has changed regarding restarts since she when to the Tyne (if you assume that public statements are a week or two behind the decision making).

 

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/cruise-and-ferry/carnivals-p-o-cruises-uk-said-to-be-selling-oceana-cruiseship/2-1-838865

This article is behind a paywall but someone in the industry press is happy to goto 'print' on the story.

[joeecco]

3 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I don't disagree but in a long term lay-up I'm not convinced they would remove the theatre electro-tech equipment. I also dont  think that much has changed regarding restarts since she when to the Tyne (if you assume that public statements are a week or two behind the decision making).

 

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/cruise-and-ferry/carnivals-p-o-cruises-uk-said-to-be-selling-oceana-cruiseship/2-1-838865

This article is behind a paywall but someone in the industry press is happy to goto 'print' on the story.

That article is heartbreaking. Im

gonna hope and pray that they pull another of the ships in to do the Fly cruises our of Dubai for 2022 - there isn’t exactly much competition that we’d be interested in switching too. 

[No pager thank you]

3 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I don't disagree but in a long term lay-up I'm not convinced they would remove the theatre electro-tech equipment. I also dont  think that much has changed regarding restarts since she when to the Tyne (if you assume that public statements are a week or two behind the decision making).

 

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/cruise-and-ferry/carnivals-p-o-cruises-uk-said-to-be-selling-oceana-cruiseship/2-1-838865

This article is behind a paywall but someone in the industry press is happy to goto 'print' on the story.

Thank you.  What I would say is that if the sale story is not true, someone in Carnival will be on to that fairly quickly - in the same way that they were when the fake customer services Twitter account appeared recently.

 

If it does prove to be the same buyer as Oriana, then this lends credit to the possibility of a group sale of the smaller ships, on the phased transfer basis and with maintenance deals that you described.

 

The obvious question is where Astro believe the untapped demand to be at this time, as I had also heard that Piano Land had not proven to be too successful just yet?

[molecrochip]

4 minutes ago, Presto2 said:

I am a cup half empty sort of person so am not hopeful. I sort of expected her to go next and the pandemic may have meant that she needs to leave sooner rather than later. Strange if she goes for scrap as she had a good makeover not too long ago. Can't remember what is happening with her sister ship

But this is the thing. Maintenance on a ship is expensive.

 

Say its £2m a year. She needs a dry dock in early 2022 at the latest which will cost say, £10m. (tend not to be any cheaper). So, that is £14m expenditure by 2022 and then she is worth £50m on a sale. So £36m profit before considering profit from onboard spend. 

 

If someone offered £50m now, would she make £14m profit on her voyages over the next two years to make it worthwhile keeping her? Maybe, but if any of that profit will be made anyway by the same passengers travelling on different P&O ships, Carnival would still be financially better of letting her go.

 

Cruise ships are like cars, you reach a point when its more expensive to keep an old ship going than to pay your monthly finance payments on a new ship with less maintenance. The difference here is that a new ship carries more people.

 

Numbers all made up.

[molecrochip]

2 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Thank you.  What I would say is that if the sale story is not true, someone in Carnival will be on to that fairly quickly - in the same way that they were when the fake customer services Twitter account appeared recently.

 

If it does prove to be the same buyer as Oriana, then this lends credit to the possibility of a group sale of the smaller ships, on the phased transfer basis and with maintenance deals that you described.

 

The obvious question is where Astro believe the untapped demand to be at this time, as I had also heard that Piano Land had not proven to be too successful just yet?

True, but feedback seems to be that RCI have found that the Chinese Market dont like the big ships. Astro are new so it will take a while; they didnt have cruises on sale 3 years ago like RCI. They also only have one ship.

 

One further thought, I understand that one of the partners in Astro are also a shareholder in the Greek shipyard and Chineese shipyards that Piano Land visited. So if it went off for refit then it could be saving/creating jobs and may play a part in making it affordable for Astro.

[No pager thank you]

9 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

 

One further thought, I understand that one of the partners in Astro are also a shareholder in the Greek shipyard and Chineese shipyards that Piano Land visited. So if it went off for refit then it could be saving/creating jobs and may play a part in making it affordable for Astro.

Very interesting point, that would be a logical step then.

 

Just hope that they have some other deals than with Carnival (and particularly P&O) for a while 🤞

[Captain_Morgan]

[joeecco]

2 minutes ago, Captain_Morgan said:

Do you think if I called Paul Ludlow and offered him a tenner, that he’d consider keeping hold of her for our 2022 cruise 😅

 

It will be insulting to the customers if they scrap her at that price.. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by joeecco

[molecrochip]

26 minutes ago, joeecco said:

That article is heartbreaking. Im

gonna hope and pray that they pull another of the ships in to do the Fly cruises our of Dubai for 2022 - there isn’t exactly much competition that we’d be interested in switching too. 

I try not to post pure rumour but will share this. I'm told that 'one option' is for Princess to move a ship to cover the middle east cruises 'on behalf of P&O' for the next two winters, with possibly them covering a summer season from Southampton in between. This would bridge the gap to Gala2 arriving.

 

There is precedent for this to happen with Sea Princess becoming Adonia between 2003 and 2005. Princess are expecting too much capacity a) because American, Australia and Asia markets are expected to be dampened and b) due to the the damage to their reputation due to Covid-19. 

 

The speculation suggested either Crown, Emerald or Ruby princess as the likely culprits.

[drsel]

2022 is too far away.
I am hoping she will be available for our cruise this year

[Presto2]

At least it looks like they are not going to scrap her ….

[Presto2]

4 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I try not to post pure rumour but will share this. I'm told that 'one option' is for Princess to move a ship to cover the middle east cruises 'on behalf of P&O' for the next two winters, with possibly them covering a summer season from Southampton in between. This would bridge the gap to Gala2 arriving.

 

There is precedent for this to happen with Sea Princess becoming Adonia between 2003 and 2005. Princess are expecting too much capacity a) because American, Australia and Asia markets are expected to be dampened and b) due to the the damage to their reputation due to Covid-19. 

 

The speculation suggested either Crown, Emerald or Ruby princess as the likely culprits.

What would happen to her canary island cruises say for June 2021 ?

[drsel]

I would be really happy if they don't cancel the middle East Cruises.

Do you think that they will replace Oceana with the notorious diamond Princess?

 

Crown Emerald and Ruby Princess are all excellent 5* ships.

If they replace Oceana, how do they compare with her?

[Presto2]

If it is a Princess ship at least she will have a lovely atrium ….

[Presto2]

4 minutes ago, drsel said:

I would be really happy if they don't cancel the middle East Cruises.
You think they will replace Oceana with the notorious diamond Princess?

 

Surely not - that would be a PR nightmare ………….

[drsel]

So if a Princess ship replaces Oceana, what will they offer all those who had booked Oceana for the middle East season?
The same price, same itinerary and same dates with some extra OBC?

[Captain_Morgan]

10 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I try not to post pure rumour but will share this. I'm told that 'one option' is for Princess to move a ship to cover the middle east cruises 'on behalf of P&O' for the next two winters, with possibly them covering a summer season from Southampton in between. This would bridge the gap to Gala2 arriving.

 

There is precedent for this to happen with Sea Princess becoming Adonia between 2003 and 2005. Princess are expecting too much capacity a) because American, Australia and Asia markets are expected to be dampened and b) due to the the damage to their reputation due to Covid-19. 

 

The speculation suggested either Crown, Emerald or Ruby princess as the likely culprits.

 

I would think it would make more sense for immediate deployment to send Azura or Ventura to the middle east (same model as the Princess ships mentioned) and then 'cold lease' a Princess ship for the period of time required to send it into dry dock for the necessary changes (i.e. paint job) to reflect the brand a little better

[Presto2]

1 minute ago, drsel said:

So if a Princess ship replaces Oceana, what will they offer all those who had booked Oceana for the middle East season?
The same price, same itinerary and same dates with some extra OBC?

 

How they work out who has what cabin is beyond me? There is no comparison

[joeecco]

12 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I try not to post pure rumour but will share this. I'm told that 'one option' is for Princess to move a ship to cover the middle east cruises 'on behalf of P&O' for the next two winters, with possibly them covering a summer season from Southampton in between. This would bridge the gap to Gala2 arriving.

 

There is precedent for this to happen with Sea Princess becoming Adonia between 2003 and 2005. Princess are expecting too much capacity a) because American, Australia and Asia markets are expected to be dampened and b) due to the the damage to their reputation due to Covid-19. 

 

The speculation suggested either Crown, Emerald or Ruby princess as the likely culprits.

Oh my goodness this would be the perfect solution, we’d be over the moon with this! I’m gonna keep everything crossed 

[No pager thank you]

6 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I try not to post pure rumour but will share this. I'm told that 'one option' is for Princess to move a ship to cover the middle east cruises 'on behalf of P&O' for the next two winters, with possibly them covering a summer season from Southampton in between. This would bridge the gap to Gala2 arriving.

 

The speculation suggested either Crown, Emerald or Ruby princess as the likely culprits.

That could prove to be a shrewd move, given that all of these would add capacity to the net size of the P&O fleet. 

 

However, each of these ships is probably not so large as to upset most of the Oceana booked passengers in a way that moving to Iona for instance might.  It feels less disruptive than the 3 in to 2 formula discussed yesterday evening, particularly when couched alongside the strength of the other markets.

 

Taken at face value and the comments about capacity management measures being in play, the 2021 "firm booked" UK position looks strong.  I would imagine that the company are desperate to avoid more refunds. 

 

The key is how much of the demand will sustain to 2022/23 when, all things being equal, the net size of the fleet increases again with Gala2.

[molecrochip]

1 minute ago, drsel said:

I would be really happy if they don't cancel the middle East Cruises.
You think they will replace Oceana with the notorious diamond Princess?

Crown, Emerald and Ruby are as close to Azura as you get.

 

Diamond / Sapphire were built in Japan hence them based there. 

 

[drsel]

I try not to post pure rumour but will share this. I'm told that 'one option' is for Princess to move a ship to cover the middle east cruises 'on behalf of P&O' for the next two winters, with possibly them covering a summer season from Southampton in between. This would bridge the gap to Gala2 arriving.
 
There is precedent for this to happen with Sea Princess becoming Adonia between 2003 and 2005. Princess are expecting too much capacity a) because American, Australia and Asia markets are expected to be dampened and b) due to the the damage to their reputation due to Covid-19. 
 
The speculation suggested either Crown, Emerald or Ruby princess as the likely culprits.

So should I go ahead and make my final payment for Oceana in 10 days time, if a Princess ship will be replacing her, as you expect?

[molecrochip]

1 minute ago, drsel said:

So should I go ahead and make my final payment for Oceana in 10 days time, if a Princess ship will be replacing her, as you expect?

I expect we will all know more by the weekend. The investor call on Friday is likely to be interesting.