Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[baldilocks]

For the folks in FL that are having problems with their state's vaccination procedures.....come to GA and see how inept it can be. At least you have some functioning systems. Where we live in NE GA. The word is wait another 2-3 months and we will get to you.....and that's for the 1A+ group. Atlanta is getting almost all the doses of vaccine while we have a few thousand doses for our 500K residents. The vaccine is controlled by the hospitals in GA. Since we have few hospitals in NE GA and Atlanta has multiple large hospitals...no vaccine for us. The vaccine distribution is very poor in GA.

[mimbecky]

Governor in California announced yesterday that vaccines should be now given to anyone 65 and up.  San Diego county has nixed that for now saying we have too many health care workers to extend out.  I am fine with that- I wouldn't qualify over 65 anyway and know our health care workers deserve it.

They have opened up Petco Park (Padres) and plan to open more "super sites" in each the North, South, East portions of our county with hopes of  

1.Starting Feb 1 to administer 24,000 shots a day 

2. Have 70% of those over 16 vaccinated by the end of July.

We have about 2.6 million over 16 so not sure if the numbers add up or if it is possible but at least they are planning!!! 

M

[nocl]

19 hours ago, Wine-O said:

It's not a problem for the 99.6% who get it and recover.  It's the high risk folks that have to take precautions.  I never said I was so eager to get the vaccine.  I've had covid and have the antibodies.  My only symptoms were a post nasal drip.    I'll sell some of the plasma to you if you're interested.   😁 🍷   

Your numbers are a bit off.  While the total mortality rate is between .4 and .7 (you were at the low extreme.  You are assuming that all that do not die recover fully.  Which ignores the information about impacts on the long haulers, as well as long term lung, kidney and neurological damage that data now indicates include some permanent impacts on a percentage of the infected.

[Covepointcruiser]

Our county in Maryland is not handling the vaccinations well.    The governor has stated that all senior 65s and over are now eligible but our county is holding it at 1a.   That is, unless you are a wealthy senior.   Those in the high cost Asbury Complex, $500k to buy in and everyone has a cottage or an apartment, received their vaccinations last Friday.    It has not been opened to other seniors, even those 75 and over.   County adjoining ours is giving vaccines to those 65 and over.   Glad our politicians are focused on DC and are forgetting about COVID and their constituents.

[Wine-O]

19 minutes ago, nocl said:

Your numbers are a bit off.  While the total mortality rate is between .4 and .7 (you were at the low extreme.  You are assuming that all that do not die recover fully.  Which ignores the information about impacts on the long haulers, as well as long term lung, kidney and neurological damage that data now indicates include some permanent impacts on a percentage of the infected.

I guess you just never know.  Can't live in fear and lockdowns for the rest of your life, or maybe you can.  😉  🍷

[Denny01]

I realize this is a complete waste of my time to type this out and for you to read this, but I get tired of seeing bad numbers tossed out. 99.6% of those that get COVID ‘recovered’ inferring only 0.4% died; this is not even close. 

 

In August, the death rate was over 3% when we didn’t have a good handle on responses, and right now, 23M have been infected and over 380K have died of it, for a death rate of close to 2%, not 0.4%.

 

And over 750k have been hospitalized. And of course a huge number of those that were ill but didn’t go to a hospital. But what the heck, just keep throwing out numbers that make you feel better and live in your fantasy world. 

 

The vaccine is being made available. Got my first shot Tuesday. No side affects except the shot site is more sensitive than for most shots I’ve had. 

 

Den

Edited January 14, 2021 by Denny01

[nocl]

58 minutes ago, Wine-O said:

I guess you just never know.  Can't live in fear and lockdowns for the rest of your life, or maybe you can.  😉  🍷

 

No one said that you had to. Only to be smart about dealing with the pandemic and do ones best to avoid infection

 

You are also now seeing another element to the increased number of infections.  The more infections the greater opportunity the virus has to mutate. As the number of infections grow, the number of new strains is increasing at a similar rate.  Enough infections and sooner or later you get a strain that bypasses the vaccines.  Best way to avoid that is to get the number of new infections down as low as possible.

[nocl]

48 minutes ago, Denny01 said:

I realize this is a complete waste of my time to type this out and for you to read this, but I get tired of seeing bad numbers tossed out. 99.6% of those that get COVID ‘recovered’ inferring only 0.4% died; this is not even close. 

 

In August, the death rate was over 3% when we didn’t have a good handle on responses, and right now, 23M have been infected and over 380K have died of it, for a death rate of close to 2%, not 0.4%.

 

And over 750k have been hospitalized. And of course a huge number of those that were ill but didn’t go to a hospital. But what the heck, just keep throwing out numbers that make you feel better and live in your fantasy world. 

 

The vaccine is being made available. Got my first shot Tuesday. No side affects except the shot site is more sensitive than for most shots I’ve had. 

 

Den

You are assuming that the reported cases represent the total number of infections.  Due to the number of asymptomatic cases, as well as the number of people that show symptoms, but are never tested that number does not represent all of the cases.  Latest estimate is that the actual number of cases is at least 2-3 times the reported/tested number.

 

Just listened to Gottlieb where he stated that around 30% of the US population has been infected.  That would be close to 100 million (a little over 3 times the tested number). Which should, along with the vaccines start impacting infection rates. Even with the more contagious strains showing up.

 

The CDC's estimate of mortality rate is around .65%.  Other institutions have varying numbers, in a similar ball park.  Though the number can be worse in third world countries or even in first world countries if the hospitals get over whelmed.

[Charles4515]

1 hour ago, Covepointcruiser said:

Our county in Maryland is not handling the vaccinations well.    The governor has stated that all senior 65s and over are now eligible but our county is holding it at 1a.   That is, unless you are a wealthy senior.   Those in the high cost Asbury Complex, $500k to buy in and everyone has a cottage or an apartment, received their vaccinations last Friday.    It has not been opened to other seniors, even those 75 and over.   County adjoining ours is giving vaccines to those 65 and over.   Glad our politicians are focused on DC and are forgetting about COVID and their constituents.

 

I watched Hogan's press conference. What he announced for statewide was over 75 eligible next Monday, going to 1B and over 65 eligible Monday January 25 going to 1C. Some counties that have enough doses unused can do 65. 

Edited January 15, 2021 by Charles4515

[middlehaitch]

17 minutes ago, nocl said:

 

No one said that you had to. Only to be smart about dealing with the pandemic and do ones best to avoid infection

 

You are also now seeing another element to the increased number of infections.  The more infections the greater opportunity the virus has to mutate. As the number of infections grow, the number of new strains is increasing at a similar rate.  Enough infections and sooner or later you get a strain that bypasses the vaccines.  Best way to avoid that is to get the number of new infections down as low as possible.

 

Thank you for saying the bolded. That is something that has been going around in my head but, not having a scientific bone in my body, had no idea how to word the question.

 

Cheers, h

[zitsky]

Waiting for my turn in North Carolina.  50+  Also reading up on mutations and how they are affected by vaccines.  Thinking I might need to postpone travel to 2022.

[mayleeman]

@Wine-O Living in fear is not why I wear a seatbelt or don't text while driving--those things simply help avoid injuries. I get flu shots not because of fear but because they are a fairly effective means of avoiding a known contagion. Taking safety precautions to help avoid the most severe pandemic in 100 years is not living in fear--I live in less fear, actually, because I avoid indoor crowds, wear masks, plan on the vaccine when available, and socialize (at a reasonable distance) only with those who I know take similar approaches to their health.

 

Far from being locked up, we play golf, participated in a Christmas golf cart parade, walk and chat with dozens of people, and shop for both groceries and furniture, and do all of these things while observing safety practices that are no more budensome than that seat belt. Which has, actually, saved my life.

[mayleeman]

Has anyone heard of other vaccine storage incidents/failures other than the nitwit pharmacist who purposely messed up the refrigeration of some 500 doses? There was so much concern before distribution began whether the facilities could deal with the extreme temp required for Pfizer's.

Edited January 15, 2021 by mayleeman

[Wine-O]

19 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

@Wine-O Living in fear is not why I wear a seatbelt or don't text while driving--those things simply help avoid injuries. I get flu shots not because of fear but because they are a fairly effective means of avoiding a known contagion. Taking safety precautions to help avoid the most severe pandemic in 100 years is not living in fear--I live in less fear, actually, because I avoid indoor crowds, wear masks, plan on the vaccine when available, and socialize (at a reasonable distance) only with those who I know take similar approaches to their health.

 

Far from being locked up, we play golf, participated in a Christmas golf cart parade, walk and chat with dozens of people, and shop for both groceries and furniture, and do all of these things while observing safety practices that are no more budensome than that seat belt. Which has, actually, saved my life.

Sounds like common sense way of thinking.  If everyone acted like that, we wouldn't have any issues.    🍷

[D C]

53 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

Has anyone heard of other vaccine storage incidents/failures other than the nitwit pharmacist who purposely messed up the refrigeration of some 500 doses? There was so much concern before distribution began whether the facilities could deal with the extreme temp required for Pfizer's.

None.  It seems to be going flawlessly, despite the media's overblown pre-stories of impending doom. 

[D C]

3 hours ago, Denny01 said:

I realize this is a complete waste of my time to type this out and for you to read this, but I get tired of seeing bad numbers tossed out. 99.6% of those that get COVID ‘recovered’ inferring only 0.4% died; this is not even close. 

 

In August, the death rate was over 3% when we didn’t have a good handle on responses, and right now, 23M have been infected and over 380K have died of it, for a death rate of close to 2%, not 0.4%.

 

And over 750k have been hospitalized. And of course a huge number of those that were ill but didn’t go to a hospital. But what the heck, just keep throwing out numbers that make you feel better and live in your fantasy world. 

 

The vaccine is being made available. Got my first shot Tuesday. No side affects except the shot site is more sensitive than for most shots I’ve had. 

 

Den

Using total numbers like that presents a very skewed perspective.

Nursing home/assisted care/long term care (pick your term) deaths account for nearly 40% of the total by some reports.  Plus, COVID death rates vary greatly by age.  Thus there isn't a single "chance of dying" figure.   For those under 50 or 60, it's very small, and goes down the younger you are.    Likewise for the chances of being hospitalized.   

[nosapphire]

6 hours ago, D C said:

Using total numbers like that presents a very skewed perspective.

Nursing home/assisted care/long term care (pick your term) deaths account for nearly 40% of the total by some reports.  Plus, COVID death rates vary greatly by age.  Thus there isn't a single "chance of dying" figure.   For those under 50 or 60, it's very small, and goes down the younger you are.    Likewise for the chances of being hospitalized.   

Don't bank on that.

Word of mouth here in UK (from paramedics and those actually working the wards) is that the majority of hospital cases are now the 30 to 50 age groups. And only the sickest get put in hospital now.

[D C]

6 hours ago, nosapphire said:

Don't bank on that.

Word of mouth here in UK (from paramedics and those actually working the wards) is that the majority of hospital cases are now the 30 to 50 age groups. And only the sickest get put in hospital now.

Here's a good chart from the CDC in the US.  They establish a 'comparison group' (20-somethings) and compare the relative risk vs them.   Remember, it's a relative comparison, so even the 30x higher for death in the 50s is compared to a very small death rate, but it goes up exponentially with age.

 

[Fouremco]

7 hours ago, nosapphire said:

Don't bank on that.

Word of mouth here in UK (from paramedics and those actually working the wards) is that the majority of hospital cases are now the 30 to 50 age groups. And only the sickest get put in hospital now.

 

14 minutes ago, D C said:

Here's a good chart from the CDC in the US.  They establish a 'comparison group' (20-somethings) and compare the relative risk vs them.   Remember, it's a relative comparison, so even the 30x higher for death in the 50s is compared to a very small death rate, but it goes up exponentially with age.

 

Most issues related to COVID-19 change quite dramatically over a relatively short period of time. For example, it was only recently that the first variant was identified, and now there are two major variants circulating globally.

 

The CDC chart is based on old (for COVID-19) data that was "accessed" on 08/06/2020, but there is no indication of how many weeks or months earlier the data was actually compiled. On the other hand, the UK observations are current and suggest that, at least in the UK, there has been a noticeable shift to younger patients being hospitalized.   

[zitsky]

16 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

 

Most issues related to COVID-19 change quite dramatically over a relatively short period of time. For example, it was only recently that the first variant was identified, and now there are two major variants circulating globally.

 

The CDC chart is based on old (for COVID-19) data that was "accessed" on 08/06/2020, but there is no indication of how many weeks or months earlier the data was actually compiled. On the other hand, the UK observations are current and suggest that, at least in the UK, there has been a noticeable shift to younger patients being hospitalized.   

 

I thought it was more than two variants?

 

UK

South Africa

Brazil

Possibly USA

 

 

[Fouremco]

Just now, zitsky said:

 

I thought it was more than two variants?

 

UK

South Africa

Brazil

Possibly USA

 

 

The UK and South African variants are the two "major variants" to which I referred. I'm not sure that the others are viewed as major at this point or that they are circulating as broadly.

[mayleeman]

@D C

 

I would like to see what those numbers would show if cases occurring in institutionalized living (assisted living, nursing homes) during, say, February through June were excluded. Too many residents and patients were in conditions leading to super-spread situations where over half the population became infected, including extraordinarily high numbers of staff. Others pretty much could not leave or isolate themselves from contagious people, nor were most able to determine their care. A huge number died in the homes, never having received intensive hospital care.

 

A very distorted sample that enlarged 70 through 90+ deaths almost beyond measure.

 

I wonder if the age factor isn't as stark if you would compare group care homes for the disabled. My SIL took her son out of one of those when the care deteriorated greatly.

Edited January 15, 2021 by mayleeman

[D C]

51 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

 

Most issues related to COVID-19 change quite dramatically over a relatively short period of time. For example, it was only recently that the first variant was identified, and now there are two major variants circulating globally.

 

The CDC chart is based on old (for COVID-19) data that was "accessed" on 08/06/2020, but there is no indication of how many weeks or months earlier the data was actually compiled. On the other hand, the UK observations are current and suggest that, at least in the UK, there has been a noticeable shift to younger patients being hospitalized.   

Good catch. Thanks! I didn't even notice the date on it.  I hate the CDC's website.  Impossible to find current info.  

[Ken the cruiser]

Now, this is more like it! Hopefully, they'll start to move forward on this once the new administration is in place.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-speak-covid-vaccinations-security-concerns-delay-inaugural-rehearsal-n1254381?cid=eml_nbn_20210115

Edited January 15, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[ABoatNerd]

Well like Fouremco, I am currently in Ottawa, Canada. No vaccines for a city of + 1 million.

I am on a waitlist for the Pfizer because I qualify as key caregiver for 93 year old father, nothing available past week. Nor next week.

Given the Pfizer announcements of delay in production from their European operations, nothing for who knows how long in this city.

 

A small few in LTC vaccinated with first vaccine, some first responders and hospital staff, that is it.

Deadsville.