One of First Cruise Ships to Sail Has Covid 19 Outbreak

[rallydave]

5 minutes ago, howiefrommd said:

The client provided a private plane. I refuse at this point to get on commercial. Speaking to my infectious disease colleagues, they agree with me.

 

That was one of the wacky parts, I had to be tested immediately upon landing in Florida, because I was going to return after the meeting.  Can you imagine this is under ideal testing conditions, can you imagine trying to do this for an entire cruise, airplane or bus tour loud full of people. 
 

In my case, I was pretty confident in the results as it was done at both ends via a medical school lab doing the test.  I do not know if I would have the same level of confidence using a rapid test.

 

 

Thanks so much for the quick and detailed response.  Was just talking to DW and we were discussing all the issues with the 3 days and getting home on a commercial flight.and saying no way to travel commercial if they put in those type of requirements plus a you mentioned flying for many hours getting tested while boarding with a false positive or a false negative for that matter and where do you go or what do you do???????

 

Bringing up a sore spot from the Tahiti positive that a person on the cruise was allowed to fly home commercial I believe on Air Tahiti Nui and according to him not told he needed to quarantine at home.  This while the locals and those not able to get a flight were required to quarantine for 7 days.  Makes me greatly question the Tahiti protocol.

[mrlevin]

Guernsey reported their first case in months yesterday; luckily it was a returning traveller in self isolation. If an island that is locked out to the rest of the world can still get a case what are the chances that islands (e.g., Caribbean) will open their shores to hundreds or thousands of tourists.

Edited September 8, 2020 by mrlevin

[pappy1022]

On 9/8/2020 at 6:16 PM, mrlevin said:

Guernsey reported their first case in months yesterday; luckily it was a returning traveller in self isolation. If an island that is locked out to the rest of the world can still get a case what are the chances that islands (e.g., Caribbean) will open their shores to hundreds or thousands of tourists.

Exactly. It's everywhere and the spikes continue to occur all around the world as we open things up a bit. France just had their highest 1 day numbers for positive COVID cases. With schools opening up the cases are increasing. I believe we are a long ways off from the start up of cruises in a meaningful way. 

[BarbarianPaul]

46 minutes ago, pappy1022 said:

Exactly. It's everywhere and the spikes continue to occur all around the world as we open things up a bit. France just had their highest 1 day numbers for positive COVID cases. With schools opening up the cases are increasing. I believe we are a long ways off from the start up of cruises in a meaningful way. 

I think you’re right. The cruise lines are now practically begging the CDC to let them open up, even though the protocols are still basically untested. And I think the CDC has not forgotten how many lines continued to sail at the start of the outbreak. Granted, it’s debatable whether or not they should have stopped earlier, but there are arguments that fall both ways. And the fact that the cruise lines have been skirting US labor laws for years and years probably doesn’t help them either.

 

The other issue is that I fear when cruising ultimately resumes the protocols will initially be draconian enough to undermine the entire experience. Being forced to take an excursion just to get off the ship could be a deal breaker for us.

We’re all bombarded these days by various cruise lines’ typically misleading emails and offers,  that to me seem surprisingly unwilling to acknowledge that they’ll actually have to lower prices to get people back onboard. And if you’re using a future cruise credit, won’t you be paying close to full price?

[Pcardad]

The cruise lines should ignore the CDC and cut a deal with Bermuda to start all their East coast cruises there. Bermuda is desperate for the business. The same could be done in Cabo on the West coast. I sent this idea to NCL and to the BDS Dept. of Tourism...let's see if it sticks.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Pcardad

[Steve Q]

Now Israel is once again shutting down for a minimum of 3 weeks. You have to wonder if other countries will be forced to follow suit in the autumn.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-enter-3-week-lockdown-from-friday-schools-malls-hotels-to-be-closed/

[rallydave]

1 minute ago, Pcardad said:

The cruise lines should ignore the CDC and cut a deal with Bermuda to start all their East coast cruises there. Bermuda is desperate for the business. The same could be done in Cabo on the West coast. I sent this idea to NCL and to the BDS Dept. of Tourism...let's see if it sticks.

You simply have to be joking.  Not enough docking space for all of the behimith ships let alone midsize.   Plus sincerely doubt there is enough lift to take all the passengers to Bermuda plus many people don't want to fly but, want to drive to the US ports.

 

And sincerely doubt there is enough infrastructure in Bermuda to make this work.  And don't forget all of the containers that ould need to be shipped weekly or more often.  Nice try but, no cigar.

[Pcardad]

You must not have heard about the movement underway (complete with plans) to build a massive transshipping terminal off the north shore. It could easily handle a huge amount of cruise ships and aren't a number of NCLH ships already registered in BDA?

 

Adding flights is easy.

 

And already lots of unused hotel rooms.

 

PS - they also have just completed a brand new airport.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Pcardad

[Steve Q]

4 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

The cruise lines should ignore the CDC and cut a deal with Bermuda to start all their East coast cruises there. Bermuda is desperate for the business. The same could be done in Cabo on the West coast. I sent this idea to NCL and to the BDS Dept. of Tourism...let's see if it sticks.

That may be an option, but I do not see that happening. I cannot imagine that Bermuda could safely handle the onslaught of having countless thousands of cruisers entering and leaving their country. I doubt they have sufficient infrastructure to handle such an enormous increase in tourists ( airport, hotels, harbor infrastructure, etc).

In addition, and perhaps most importantly, the future of cruising is not in Bermuda. The cruise lines, above everything else, need to maintain an amicable relationship with U. S. Government authorities. Skirting U.S. regulations would poison that relationship.

[Steve Q]

4 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

You must not have heard about the movement underway (complete with plans) to build a massive transshipping terminal off the north shore. It could easily handle a huge amount of cruise ships and aren't a number of NCLH ships already registered in BDA?

 

Adding flights is easy.

 

And already lots of unused hotel rooms.

 

PS - they also have just completed a brand new airport.

There may very well be plans in the works to construct a new terminal to handle mega size cruise ships. What is the proposed completion date? I suspect it would take years to build. By the time it is completed, the virus will be a distant memory.

[Pcardad]

There are no US regulations in Bermuda....only Bermudian regulations. People (and companies) sometimes do strange things when they feel they have limited options. Bermuda is in the same (foundering) boat. Maybe they decide to help each other? Maybe not. It's fun to sim it out though.

[Pcardad]

Just now, Steve Q said:

There may very well be plans in the works to construct a new terminal to handle mega size cruise ships. What is the proposed completion date? I suspect it would take years to build. By the time it is completed, the virus will be a distant memory.

 

Maybe...if an effective vaccine can be developed. That is still a big "IF".

 

And the fastest an previous vaccine was constructed was what....4 years? Sometimes things can be done quickly...sometimes not.

[howiefrommd]

Wouldn’t you love to be a fly in the wall when the hedge fund and investment people hear this scheme.  

[Pcardad]

I like the word scheme...it makes it sound like I should have henchmen and a secret lair.

[rallydave]

2 hours ago, Pcardad said:

You must not have heard about the movement underway (complete with plans) to build a massive transshipping terminal off the north shore. It could easily handle a huge amount of cunruise ships and aren't a number of NCLH ships already registered in BDA?

 

Adding flights is easy.

 

And already lots of unused hotel rooms.

 

PS - they also have just completed a brand new airport.

Well the plans for the transhipping terminal sounds like a freight terminal so massive changes to make it a passenger terminal as well.  Not sure how easy adding flights is with passengers from many different cities I am sure wanting to fly non-stop to Bermuda lots of logistical changes necessary.

 

Believe somewhere in the neighborhood of 50,000 passengers cruise weekly to the Caribbean with probably 20 or so ships every Saturday/Sunday so at that number that would be approx 278 flights to Bermuda every Saturday/Sunday.

 

And the final  unfixable issues is that we took a TA from Port Everglades stopping in Bermuda and it took until the second morning to get to Bermuda so the weekly 7 day cruises out of Florida would lose 4 nites, 2 each way making the Caribbean cruise a 3 niter not getting anyplace South of the northern Bahamas.

 

A complete NON-STARTER!!

 

 

[mrlevin]

2 hours ago, BarbarianPaul said:

I think you’re right. The cruise lines are now practically begging the CDC to let them open up, even though the protocols are still basically untested.

 

Actually, I think the cruise lines are secretly thanking CDC for inaction; as they have a scapegoat.  I think the cruise lines are scared of opening up in North America for fear of  expected cases and a clientele that might not like the restrictions that would be put on now (e.g., week or shorter itineraries, ship shore excursions only, etc).

 

Marc

[Pcardad]

I think that is true as well.......but I really enjoy thinking about alternatives and will continue to do so. I'll keep posting them here too because you guys enjoy them as well.

[greykitty]

Are we talking about LF Wade airport in Bermuda? The one that was supposed to get a new terminal?  Or is there an entirely new airport?

 

https://www.meetingsnet.com/destination-venue-news/new-bermuda-airport-terminal-set-summer-debut

 

Would NCLH be moving their headquarters to Bermuda as well?  Some lovely houses there, I'm sure.  While we're engaged in speculative thoughts...

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by greykitty

[rallydave]

7 minutes ago, greykitty said:

Would NCLH be moving their headquarters to Bermuda as well?  Some lovely houses there, I'm sure.  While we're engaged in speculative thoughts..

Since NCLH is Registered in Bermuda legally their Headquarters are in Bermuda even if only with a PO Box address.  Technically the HQ is in Miami where the offices are so no need to move their HQ to Bermuda as they are already there.  

[BarbarianPaul]

I think if the cruise lines tried any harebrained scheme to somehow bypass CDC restrictions, like trying to sail out of Bermuda (which we all know will never happen anyway), they’d find themselves in a heap o’ trouble. The CDC would just reaffirm their recommendation that cruising was unsafe, that US citizens would be putting themselves at risk by cruising. Not all of us would listen, but I would bet a good enough percentage would, enough to make the scheme unprofitable.

 

There was just a study released that you are twice as likely to contract what we don’t want to contract by dining indoors. So why are any of us clamoring to live in a confined space with hundreds and hundreds of people for a week or two at this particular time, no matter what the “safeguards”?

 

I guess you could just book some enormous apartment sized suite and sit in it for two weeks, but that doesn’t sound like too much fun. And even then, can you really trust the air circulation systems?
 

 

[greykitty]

17 minutes ago, rallydave said:

Since NCLH is Registered in Bermuda legally their Headquarters are in Bermuda even if only with a PO Box address.  Technically the HQ is in Miami where the offices are so no need to move their HQ to Bermuda as they are already there.  

Thanks!  Although I was wondering whether they'd like to move their executives and hire Bermudian residents as part of the plan.  Like a long-term change of business plan?

 

Was thinking in the car - if I were Bermuda and had a cruise line approach me like this, would I be tempted to really hike up port fees, etc?  I'd guess a legitimate increase would be in order to pay for infrastructure enhancements - but, hmm...maybe a little extra?  Since, speculatively, that cruise line might not be welcomed back  quickly to the US.  

 

But I suppose stranger things have happened, right?

[Pcardad]

The fun part is in the thinking about it...not whether or not it actually happens.

 

If we restrict conversations to things that are actually going to happen, this is going to be a very, very quiet forum for a long time.

Edited September 14, 2020 by Pcardad

[BarbarianPaul]

7 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

The fun part is in the thinking about it...not whether or not it actually happens.

 

If we restrict conversations to things that are actually going to happen, this is going to be a very, very quiet forum for a long time.

Good point! So, back to this Bermuda thing. If the port wasn’t big enough, but the capacity stayed reduced, they could always ferry passengers out for embarkation. Supplies as well if necessary. 

[SusieQft]

14 hours ago, Pcardad said:

The cruise lines should ignore the CDC and cut a deal with Bermuda to start all their East coast cruises there. Bermuda is desperate for the business. The same could be done in Cabo on the West coast.

 

I find the discussion of Bermuda interesting, especially since I have never been there.  But no one has replied about Cabo.  I have been to Cabo numerous times, both by air and by sea.  It is a tender port.  Getting to Cabo San Lucas from the airport in San Jose del Cabo is not a short taxi ride and is already somewhat of a nightmare, without the added traffic from cruises.  Maybe there are other ports in Mexico that would be better, but IMO Cabo San Lucas would not work.

 

However, I do agree it is fun to speculate about "what if" scenarios.

[Pcardad]

If the cruise companies used it, it would not remain a tender port...not with all the money they would throw at it. And Cabo is one of the safer Mexican cities. And very close to LA.....