MAYBE new fast & cheap COVID testing will get cruising going

[susancruzs]

There are many headlines coming out about vaccines, rapid tests, etc., but it is important to read all details because of what the specific tests targets are.   It is a very complicated process, which in my opinion should not be rushed in any way.  

[HappyInVan]

15 hours ago, bubbapuck said:

Just saw a news report on this. It has been approved by the FDA and has 99% accuracy. The test time Is about 15 mins. The company is making 50 million tests in the next few months. This makes me optimistic our mid 2021 cruise may go on. 

 

99%? Hard to believe. Do you have a source for that?

 

The reason why the PCR test take many hours is because minute amounts of virus are 'amplified'. In contrast, a 15-minute test is much less sensitive. Except within a narrow window, like after the onset of symptoms.

 

By that time, the infection becomes obvious. You will likely be stopped during embarkation. That's why they're only charging $5 per test.

 

This is well known. The press release is merely window dressing. Good optics for the company and the Administration.

 

Don't be gullible. Be Safe.

 

[drowelf]

21 hours ago, bubbapuck said:

Just saw a news report on this. It has been approved by the FDA and has 99% accuracy. The test time Is about 15 mins. The company is making 50 million tests in the next few months. This makes me optimistic our mid 2021 cruise may go on. 

Hate to burst your bubble, but testing alone is not going to get the cruise industry going again. We need to have a vaccine (best) or extremely effective therapeutics. Testing only indicates that you don't have active Covid-19 at that point in time, it can not tell if you've been infected but are at the asymptomatic stage and will develop Covid-19 within the next couple of days. 

 

It going to take a vaccine before we are going to set foot on a ship at the moment. 

[bubbapuck]

No bubbles burst, not a gullible person.
 

Just looking for some positive in a negative time. The advanced test sing available is a good step. Obviously vaccination is best but they may not have vaccines by the time some cruising is allowed to start. MSC has shown cruising can be successful with testing and following protocols. Positive steps are happening. 

[mellon1]

On 8/29/2020 at 8:45 PM, Hlitner said:

There are two issues with fast tests (based on antigens).  1.  These tests have previously had about a 20% false negative rate (which means 1 in 5 of those who test negative may well have COVID).  2.  According to a pretty decent study done by Johns Hopkins, no test (including the more accurate PCR tests) is very dependable for the first 4 days after a person is exposed to COVID.  So consider these two items when it comes to cruising.  A majority of cruisers must travel long distances (including airports and flying) to get to their cruise port and often spend 1 or more nights at the cruise port area.  Any exposure during that trip will generally not be detected by any test prior to cruising.  And even those who have previously contracted the virus (and are asymptomatic) may still test negative (especially with the less accurate fast antigen tests.

 

Given this scenario it is hard for me to accept that the CDC will soon open up the USA to cruises.  I would welcome some rebuttal to what I have posted here.....since DW and I love to cruise. 

 

Hank

AMEN!

 

On 8/29/2020 at 8:45 PM, Hlitner said:

There are two issues with fast tests (based on antigens).  1.  These tests have previously had about a 20% false negative rate (which means 1 in 5 of those who test negative may well have COVID).  2.  According to a pretty decent study done by Johns Hopkins, no test (including the more accurate PCR tests) is very dependable for the first 4 days after a person is exposed to COVID.  So consider these two items when it comes to cruising.  A majority of cruisers must travel long distances (including airports and flying) to get to their cruise port and often spend 1 or more nights at the cruise port area.  Any exposure during that trip will generally not be detected by any test prior to cruising.  And even those who have previously contracted the virus (and are asymptomatic) may still test negative (especially with the less accurate fast antigen tests.

 

Given this scenario it is hard for me to accept that the CDC will soon open up the USA to cruises.  I would welcome some rebuttal to what I have posted here.....since DW and I love to cruise. 

 

Hank

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by mellon1

[mcrcruiser]

What we have not read in posts is  when embarkation takes place in a USA port  & all the  vaccines work ,testing is accurate ie & there is no possible way any one can board that has the covid19 current mutation  ,what happens when the ship arrives in the first foreign port ? 

 

  Since we are in the  very high risk category ,we must be assured beyond doubt that we would be as safe health wise as we once were ,for if we can't get that kind of guarantee we would cancel our Jan 15 ,2022 cruise prior to final payment of Oct 14 ,2021

 

 

[Hlitner]

16 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

What we have not read in posts is  when embarkation takes place in a USA port  & all the  vaccines work ,testing is accurate ie & there is no possible way any one can board that has the covid19 current mutation  ,what happens when the ship arrives in the first foreign port ? 

 

  Since we are in the  very high risk category ,we must be assured beyond doubt that we would be as safe health wise as we once were ,for if we can't get that kind of guarantee we would cancel our Jan 15 ,2022 cruise prior to final payment of Oct 14 ,2021

 

 

You may have answered your own question.   If there is a safe/effective vaccine and all passengers have been vaccinated, then stopping in a port should be OK.  As to a "guarantee" I do not think there is ever a guarantee when it comes to health.  Stuff happens and just about anything we do in life comes with some risk.  What is supposed to be nice about living in a free society is that each individual should be able to make their own decision based upon their own risk tolerance.  Prior to COVID, DW and I cruised a lot (sometimes over 100 days a year) and we also live in Mexico for about 10 weeks a year.  We have always been aware that both travel and living in Mexico comes with some degree of risk.  DW has had more then her share of respiratory illness on cruises (she is rarely ill at home) and we have both had plenty of common colds on ships.  Living in Mexico has its own risks including things like Dengue and various parasitic diseases.  We have always been willing to accept the risk and do not lose any sleep over the issue.  But there are others not willing to accept the risk and they stay home!  That is called free choice and it's a wonderful thing :).

 

Hank

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

You may have answered your own question.   If there is a safe/effective vaccine and all passengers have been vaccinated, then stopping in a port should be OK.  As to a "guarantee" I do not think there is ever a guarantee when it comes to health.  Stuff happens and just about anything we do in life comes with some risk.  What is supposed to be nice about living in a free society is that each individual should be able to make their own decision based upon their own risk tolerance.  Prior to COVID, DW and I cruised a lot (sometimes over 100 days a year) and we also live in Mexico for about 10 weeks a year.  We have always been aware that both travel and living in Mexico comes with some degree of risk.  DW has had more then her share of respiratory illness on cruises (she is rarely ill at home) and we have both had plenty of common colds on ships.  Living in Mexico has its own risks including things like Dengue and various parasitic diseases.  We have always been willing to accept the risk and do not lose any sleep over the issue.  But there are others not willing to accept the risk and they stay home!  That is called free choice and it's a wonderful thing :).

 

Hank

Hank although you did not tell us your age bracket ,we assume that you are retired from what you  posted  . The problem with any vaccine is whether we could expect protection from any mutated form of the covid 19 virus   .This is a real issue for every one regardless of age or underlying health issues 

 

Cliff

[HappyInVan]

8 hours ago, bubbapuck said:

Just looking for some positive in a negative time... MSC has shown cruising can be successful with testing and following protocols. Positive steps are happening. 

 

The Europeans can cruise again, because many countries have the disease under control. See the chart below.

[iancal]

The numbers are  both startling and telling.  The chart for covid deaths even more so.

 

Cannot see us taking a cruise from the US, let alone spending any pre or post cruise time.

[mcrcruiser]

On 8/29/2020 at 9:30 AM, jondfk said:

 

In that scenario, getting your refund (5 or 6 months later) is the least of your problem.

 

Now that you've had a positive test you won't be flying home.  You'll be looking for a location near the pier to ride out your quarantine, all at your own cost.  Princess will wash their hands of you immediately upon a positive test.  Doesn't sound like a scenario I'd like to roll the dice on.  Perhaps if I was driving to the pier I'd feel different.

 

A rapid test could be useful for crew and dockside staff.  Test the shoreside personnel every single day.  Test the crew something like every 5th day.  But again, the challenge becomes what do you do when you find an inevitable positive?

 

Rapid testing may be a great help to ramp cruising back up, but only once community spread is well under control via vaccine or good social behavior.  Neither of these are imminent in the U.S.A. I'm afraid.

 IMO the only way this covid 19 in it;s latest mutated form is going down in defeat is if all people take the vaccine when it becomes available .  Do not rely or expect good social behavior .It has not  worked in many states already which have had spikes & will not work in the future  . Testing at the pier is a additional safe guard lbut ,you  must ask your self will the same vaccine be taken by the local people in each foreign port that cruise ships visit  

 

 The problem with this virus is even if a vaccine is invented & produced in mass quantity ,it will not protect people if the covid 19 mutates beyond the ability of the current vaccine  that people get their injections . Same with the yearly flu  .Thus ,perhaps we will now all be relegated to wearing masks in public & on cruise ships for protection .  any one having this virus & sneezes or coughs the droplets of the virus can carry up to 27 feet before dropping to the floor . A scary thing to ponder 

 

 Cliff

 

[npcl]

On 9/1/2020 at 3:03 PM, bubbapuck said:

No bubbles burst, not a gullible person.
 

Just looking for some positive in a negative time. The advanced test sing available is a good step. Obviously vaccination is best but they may not have vaccines by the time some cruising is allowed to start. MSC has shown cruising can be successful with testing and following protocols. Positive steps are happening. 

MSC is demonstrating that cruising can take place when the infection rate in the population the cruisers are coming from is low.

 

Start with a low infection rate,  test everyone boarding, put in place other pretty rigorous protocols  and cruising can happen.

 

Without the low infection rate the rest is not sufficient.  The biggest impact that vaccines will have will be to help lower the new infection rate.  It, like new tests, are tools to accomplish that goal.

 

The problem is that the US is running about 87 new cases per 100,000 population per week.  Italy, where MCS is cruising out of, is currently running about 15 news cases per 100,000 per week.

[SD Beach Bum]

On 8/29/2020 at 9:30 AM, jondfk said:

 

In that scenario, getting your refund (5 or 6 months later) is the least of your problem.

 

Now that you've had a positive test you won't be flying home.  You'll be looking for a location near the pier to ride out your quarantine, all at your own cost.  Princess will wash their hands of you immediately upon a positive test.  Doesn't sound like a scenario I'd like to roll the dice on.  Perhaps if I was driving to the pier I'd feel different.

 

I read that MSC was either considering or had implemented "test positive" insurance for the lo lo price of 19 Euros.  So if you buy the insurance, then your trip home, necessary quarantine etc. is covered.  I'm sure the premiums would be quite a bit higher, but I would definitely be interested!

[HappyInVan]

Neither testing or vaccine by themselves will be the final solution. Life isn't returning to 'normal' pre-covid with just a killer test or vaccine. 36

 

We've already discussed the problems with the $5 tests.

 

Assuming that 30% of the population refuses to be vaccinated, the efficacy of the vaccine has to be 90% in order to get close to herd immunity.

 

Should the efficacy be only 50% (like the flu vaccination). its just a coin toss. Cruising will still require distancing and masks. Even if 100% of the population is vaccinated.

 

Is there hope? Suggest that you wait for the plan from the Blue Team. IMO, they will need to propose a creditable program by early October.

 

This will be a strategy utilizing all the tools in a systematic assault on the disease; lockdowns, large scale testing, mass testing, contact tracing, treatments and vaccines. Plus the procurement of PPE etc for the poorer counties.

 

One of the most important jobs is standardization in the management of the disease. What criterion for lockdowns? Currently, NY (and Canada) have a testing positivity rate of 1%. Whilst the Dakotas and Iowa etc have a positivity rate of 20%.

 

At what point would restrictions kick in to prevent the epidemic from spiraling out of control? A great deal needs to be done.

 

 

[donaldsc]

Fast and cheap is not the issue.  Sensitive and selective is the issue that I would worry about.

 

DON

[Sea Hag]

On 8/28/2020 at 11:41 PM, Av8tor said:

5$ 15-minute COVID test MAY allow cruise lines to start operating again soon - only time will tell.

 

Hoping...

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/27/why-royal-caribbean-carnival-and-norwegian-cruise/

Just saying here, but I'm after safe and effective, not fast and cheap.