Miami-Dade & Broward Phase 2

[HSTeacher1]

I'd love to see some real data on what the difference in fatalities is this year versus previous years.  

[WonderMan3]

58 minutes ago, HSTeacher1 said:

I'd love to see some real data on what the difference in fatalities is this year versus previous years.  

 

Difference in fatalities for what?

[Hearthosesteeldrumsplayin]

On 9/11/2020 at 4:40 PM, Fouremco said:

Given the context and the surrounding paragraphs, I've no doubt that they are referring to cruise ships.

 

Crew continue to contract COVID-19 aboard laid-up ships, according to CDC data obtained by the Miami Herald via a Freedom of Information Act request. At least seven ships in U.S. waters during the month of August reported COVID-19 or COVID-like illnesses to the CDC that month.

 

Like you, I imagine that the provisioning of the ships is responsible for introducing the virus onboard. Curious minds would like to know whether these cases were scattered across several line or a single line using the same source(s) for supplies.

 

The fact that the information was only acquired through a Freedom of Information Act request I find quite troubling. Clearly, the line(s) involved aren't being open about these cases, yet another talking point for cruise critics.

 

I may be mistaken, but doesn't "COVID-like illnesses" pretty much cover the gauntlet from colds to flu to respiratory illnesses that aren't necessarily COVID?  Just not wanting to be appalled by something being reported that isn't all that unusual....  As I said, I may be off base, I'm not a medical person.

[WonderMan3]

18 minutes ago, Hearthosesteeldrumsplayin said:

I may be mistaken, but doesn't "COVID-like illnesses" pretty much cover the gauntlet from colds to flu to respiratory illnesses that aren't necessarily COVID?  Just not wanting to be appalled by something being reported that isn't all that unusual....  As I said, I may be off base, I'm not a medical person.

 

While the common cold is from the coronavirus family it does not incite a fever. I would assume that these "COVID-like illnesses" would fall more into the category possibly of a flu (which does give one a fever) or some sort of severe bronchial infection to rise to the level of being reported. The fact that any COVID cases have shown up on these ships where crew are pretty isolated from the general populace just shows how contagious this thing is.

[Baron Barracuda]

1 hour ago, Hearthosesteeldrumsplayin said:

I may be mistaken, but doesn't "COVID-like illnesses" pretty much cover the gauntlet from colds to flu to respiratory illnesses that aren't necessarily COVID?  Just not wanting to be appalled by something being reported that isn't all that unusual....  As I said, I may be off base, I'm not a medical person.

With so few crew on board they should have been able to easily test everyone and report accurate covid stats.  Covid-like sounds like they just reported anyone with flu symptoms.   

[Oville]

On 9/13/2020 at 3:10 PM, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

Florida is a big place.  I live in SW Florida.  We've been in Phase II+ for some time now and have not seen a rise in cases.  I expect we will advance to Phase III shortly.

Actually Florida opened bars at 50% today.  They were opened in early June and closed again in late June when cases spiked. Miami/Dade will not be included.

[npcl]

5 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

With so few crew on board they should have been able to easily test everyone and report accurate covid stats.  Covid-like sounds like they just reported anyone with flu symptoms.   

if they did that, they would have to acknowledge just how widespread covid is and was on board ships.

 

if they don't test they can use the uncertainty and confusion. without a confirmation of a test the CDC must report as Covid like symptoms. which of course people can say, as several on this board does, that it could be lots of things and not Covid.

 

I would say that if the cruise thought that it was not covid they would test to remove the case from the stats. I propose that it is those cases that the cruise suspects that are covid that they avoid testing and confirming.

Edited September 15, 2020 by npcl

[Baron Barracuda]

13 hours ago, npcl said:

if they did that, they would have to acknowledge just how widespread covid is and was on board ships.

 

if they don't test they can use the uncertainty and confusion. without a confirmation of a test the CDC must report as Covid like symptoms. which of course people can say, as several on this board does, that it could be lots of things and not Covid.

 

I would say that if the cruise thought that it was not covid they would test to remove the case from the stats. I propose that it is those cases that the cruise suspects that are covid that they avoid testing and confirming.

Hear you, but at a time when cruise lines are trying to convince CDC that sailing is safe it doesn't look good for them to say we have crew who maybe have covid or maybe don't.  Need to demonstrate ability to accurately test and diagnose.

[Fouremco]

31 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Hear you, but at a time when cruise lines are trying to convince CDC that sailing is safe it doesn't look good for them to say we have crew who maybe have covid or maybe don't.  Need to demonstrate ability to accurately test and diagnose.

Let's not forget that we don't know exactly what information was provided by the cruise line(s) to the CDC. All we have is a Miami Herald reporter's third-hand understanding of information acquired via a Freedom of Information Act request:

 

Crew continue to contract COVID-19 aboard laid-up ships, according to CDC data obtained by the Miami Herald via a Freedom of Information Act request. At least seven ships in U.S. waters during the month of August reported COVID-19 or COVID-like illnesses to the CDC that month.

 

I have doubts that the ships actually reported "COVID-like illnesses" and think this was simply the writer's interpretation of the actual medical information provided. The phrase "At least seven ships" also suggests to me that there was less than a thorough review of the information acquired under the FIA or a precise number could have been provided.

[npcl]

On 9/14/2020 at 11:43 AM, HSTeacher1 said:

I'd love to see some real data on what the difference in fatalities is this year versus previous years.  

just do a search on 2019 vs 2020 mortality. you will find a number of articles

 

keep in mind that it takes time for a good analysis to be done.

 

I have seen a very good article on JAMA that looks at March and April.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086

Edited September 15, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

38 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Let's not forget that we don't know exactly what information was provided by the cruise line(s) to the CDC. All we have is a Miami Herald reporter's third-hand understanding of information acquired via a Freedom of Information Act request:

 

Crew continue to contract COVID-19 aboard laid-up ships, according to CDC data obtained by the Miami Herald via a Freedom of Information Act request. At least seven ships in U.S. waters during the month of August reported COVID-19 or COVID-like illnesses to the CDC that month.

 

I have doubts that the ships actually reported "COVID-like illnesses" and think this was simply the writer's interpretation of the actual medical information provided. The phrase "At least seven ships" also suggests to me that there was less than a thorough review of the information acquired under the FIA or a precise number could have been provided.

hard to say since the cruise lines are not fully testing their crew and except to the CDC not releasing that I formation.

 

Do a search on cruise line crew repatriation covid testing  and you can find a number of stories from countries in the Caribbean where the country required the cruise lines to test crew before they let them off and found a number of cases.

 

also keep in mind that as far as CDC goes they must log it as covid like, unless there is a medical diagnosis that it is in fact covid. So the reporter would have reported as CDC would have it in their data.

 

The easiest way the cruise lines have to avoid having covid cases listed by the CDC is to simply not test unless forced.

 

they can also remove ships from those jurisdiction that require reporting.

 

the cruise lines have done both

Edited September 15, 2020 by npcl

[Cruise a holic]

On 9/13/2020 at 3:03 PM, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

Covid-like illnesses???  That could be a common cold, its cousin.  This virus isn't going away.  Viruses have been with us forever.  You do understand, don't you, that you have a 99%+ chance of surviving this unless you have significant co-morbidities?  If you die of a heart attack or pneumonia these days, you're counted as dying from corona.

If you are truly practicing social distancing and hand washing, you shouldn't be "catching" a cold or flu (get a shot for sure), This virus will go away, if people get safe immunization when available.  However, you tell the over 200,000 US citizens that they had a chance of survival.  

 

Yes, you probably will die if you are over 65 and have comorbidity factors, but young seemingly healthy people die also as super seniors also survive.  I notice that many of the truly sick people seem morbidly obese and not necessarily seniors.  So I am now dieting and want to make sure I do not gain weight! 

 

Use common sense and keep healthy at any age!  Listen to science.

Edited September 21, 2020 by Cruise a holic