Speculation on when and how cruising will begin

[Hoopster95]

2 hours ago, islandwannabee said:

I don't really see how else they can do it, every itinerary will change on the select few ships that will sail. 

 

I have been writing this in posts for several months in various threads with not a whole lot of agreement or discussion until lately.

 

Another thought I have, which I believe is in a really major minority, is that if cruising is not going until Q2, and especially with only 4-5 ships at 50% capacity on the 3/4 day runs, then I feel Vision Class is definitely gone from the RCL fleet (scrapped or sold), and Radiance as well to be at bare minimum transferred (ie. to a new Pullmantur). Smallest ship left in the RCL fleet will be Voyager Class.

 

In May 2021, at $250-$290 million dollar burn rate per month, RCG will be about $2 BILLION into their approx $3.4  BILLION total loan, with about 6-7  months left to survive. Unbelievable. I really though they needed to try sailing the short runs by September, before the 2nd wave of C19, but I had not thought about CDC killing that option.

[Stick93]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Boy would they have some angry customers who went to a lot of trouble to book for double pts and lift and shift.

 

They would have to be nuts to alienate so many... . Maybe you mean on just the first few start ups?

I agree - they will have to come up with a better plan than what OP thought.

 

Hey - follow the science! (that's what we keep hearing - it must be right!)

[firefly333]

19 minutes ago, Stick93 said:

I agree - they will have to come up with a better plan than what OP thought.

 

Hey - follow the science! (that's what we keep hearing - it must be right!)

Lol only problem is the scientists disagree. Who is that Barrington group I saw a thread about who says the cure is worse than covid. Get them kids back in school. 

 

People quote whichever scientist that agrees with them and say ta da. They dont seem to read any other view .. like you said, its follow the science. Ha. Funny

 

So many experts even on cc. On ccl one poster says she just knows people will buy drinks and carry them around and not wear masks. I read here 5 minutes later all outside bars will be closed, against the rules to carry a drink around and tables will have a time limit. Who to believe? Hahahahahah

Edited October 30, 2020 by firefly333

[Stick93]

21 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Lol only problem is the scientists disagree. Who is that Barrington group I saw a thread about who says the cure is worse than covid. Get them kids back in school. 

 

People quote whichever scientist that agrees with them and say ta da. They dont seem to read any other view .. like you said, its follow the science. Ha. Funny

 

So many experts even on cc. On ccl one poster says she just knows people will buy drinks and carry them around and not wear masks. I read here 5 minutes later all outside bars will be closed, against the rules to carry a drink around and tables will have a time limit. Who to believe? Hahahahahah

I am happy you saw my cynicism in “follow the science”. 
 

I personally am ready to cruise with whatever restrictions or limitations that are put in place. I see why people will not go and they shouldn’t if they feel uncomfortable or don’t want to feel limited in their experience. But nobody really know what it will look like until human eyes see it. Even with limited European cruises sailing - things will be different here. 

[John&LaLa]

2 hours ago, Sunshine3601 said:

They keep saying drive up markets.   I hope that includes Cape Liberty and/or Baltimore since a lot of us can drive there.   

 

Any viable 3 or 4 day cruises out of those ports 

[HaveWeMetYet]

FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA for the first 6 months. 

Maryland, New York South Carolina mean the ships have to burn a lot of fuel to get to Coco Cay or Labadee. Cruise lines need to control cost on limited capacity sailings so long haul routes look really unlikely.

Maybe Texas to Cozumel within the first 6 months.

[mo&fran]

12 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA for the first 6 months. 

Maryland, New York South Carolina mean the ships have to burn a lot of fuel to get to Coco Cay or Labadee. Cruise lines need to control cost on limited capacity sailings so long haul routes look really unlikely.

Maybe Texas to Cozumel within the first 6 months.

Not necessarily. Lots of sea days means the casinos and shops are open, big money.

[mo&fran]

52 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Any viable 3 or 4 day cruises out of those ports 

No, but 7 days can do Canaveral, Nassau, and Coco Cay.

[toad455]

7 day cruises probably just out of Port Canaveral and Miami to start going to CocoCay and Labadee. Might also have 7 day cruises to Cozumel and Costa Maya as well. 

[Sunshine3601]

1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Any viable 3 or 4 day cruises out of those ports 

Probably could do a 4 day to cococay.  3 days at sea and 1 on land??   Just guessing and hoping.  I know they will start off with FL ports but hope they get something going this winter out of NJ or MD that I can drive to.   Not worth flying for a 3 or 4 nighter.  

I know my 12 night Dec will be cancelled and my b2b for January.     My next booked is 7 or 8 nights out of NJ end of march - we'll see.

[A&L_Ont]

4 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

I think they are day dreaming but nothing wrong with wishful thinking.  

 

And just like that the CDC says yes.

[HaveWeMetYet]

Here is what you are likely to see until covid is mostly gone.

Florida and maybe some Gulf Ports only. No West Coast until 2nd half 2021 or later.

3-4 day cruise to Coco Cay or Labadee plus sea days.

5 day with 2 nights Coco Cay or 2 nights Labadee or 1 at each plus sea days.

7 night  with 2 nights at either Coco Cay or Labadee and 1 at the other plus sea days.

This accomplishes the ability to control shore excursions by isolation from other non cruisers, control staff isolation, keep fuel cost low, keep near US in case of medical evacuation.

[Blue Eyed Belfast Belle]

On ‎10‎/‎30‎/‎2020 at 9:35 PM, HaveWeMetYet said:

Here is what you are likely to see until covid is mostly gone.

Florida and maybe some Gulf Ports only. No West Coast until 2nd half 2021 or later.

3-4 day cruise to Coco Cay or Labadee plus sea days.

5 day with 2 nights Coco Cay or 2 nights Labadee or 1 at each plus sea days.

7 night  with 2 nights at either Coco Cay or Labadee and 1 at the other plus sea days.

This accomplishes the ability to control shore excursions by isolation from other non cruisers, control staff isolation, keep fuel cost low, keep near US in case of medical evacuation.

 

 

What do you think of the sailings from Europe?  Tui, MSC and Costa are currently sailing with well rehearsed but it will be interesting to see if RCG follow suit. 

 

 

There is a very good vlog series on that well know video platform by Morgan in the Unofficial Travel Guide when he sailed on a couple of Tui's cruises to nowhere from Germany.

[MaritimeR&R]

I could be wrong, but I imagine that one other area that will also have to be taken into account will be these CDC requirements for a conditional sailing certificate: contracted/guaranteed non-public transportation, sufficient hotel rooms for quarantine , and hospital rooms.  Because of these requirements and the  number of different cruise lines using the "drive-to" ports, sailings will likely be limited to one cruise per line per week per port so as to allow the cruise port area to absorb the above passengers, if necessary, without overburdening the community. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by MaritimeR&R

[LXA350]

On 10/30/2020 at 6:35 PM, Hoopster95 said:

Another thought I have, which I believe is in a really major minority, is that if cruising is not going until Q2, and especially with only 4-5 ships at 50% capacity on the 3/4 day runs, then I feel Vision Class is definitely gone from the RCL fleet (scrapped or sold), and Radiance as well to be at bare minimum transferred (ie. to a new Pullmantur). Smallest ship left in the RCL fleet will be Voyager Class.

 

Radiance Class is not in danger to leave the RCL fleet anytime soon as they need this class for their one way Alaska itinararies and also for getting into certain ports in Australasia for instance and could be used to serve ports such as Tampa and Baltimore. However the whole COVID situation might accelerate the retirement of the Vision Class. Assuming that Majesty and Empress will get scraped as well, we might see them use the Vision Class fleet to start a new Pullmantour or when times get better have them sold to cruiselines such as Marella to renew their fleet.

 

Let's see how things are going, but test cruises will start the earliest in December more likely towards the end or even begining of next year. With COVID numbers spiking up, partially due to the colder weather in some states where people are more inside or in other states where no proper protocolls were ever implemented or respected by the majority of the population Q1 2021 seems already also very unrealsitic unless for instance things in Florida will get much better and RCL will start with first cruises to no where or the 3-4 night cruises with restirctions such as only FL citizens etc, but doubt before Feb or March this will be realistic at this stage. RCL will first focus on how the restart in Singaopre will go and will continue to develop it's protocols from what is learnt there and then later on being tested with the trial cruises out of FL with employees. Hence it will take a while before we will see the first cruises to in North America to commence.

[travelhound]

On 10/30/2020 at 1:08 PM, firefly333 said:

Lol only problem is the scientists disagree. Who is that Barrington group I saw a thread about who says the cure is worse than covid. Get them kids back in school. 

 

People quote whichever scientist that agrees with them and say ta da. They dont seem to read any other view .. like you said, its follow the science. Ha. Funny

 

So many experts even on cc. On ccl one poster says she just knows people will buy drinks and carry them around and not wear masks. I read here 5 minutes later all outside bars will be closed, against the rules to carry a drink around and tables will have a time limit. Who to believe? Hahahahahah

Good point, and things will also change significantly after a vaccine is distributed.

[firefly333]

6 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Good point, and things will also change significantly after a vaccine is distributed.

I hope people will get it. I've already heard friends who dont trust vaccines and said never got a flu shot and never got the flu. Let everyone else get it. ..and these arent young people, its age groups who probably should get it. I'll try and get it, but idk who else. At my parents age, every year they have gotten the flu shot before but this year sheltering in place still and think there is a danger just getting out to get shots. 

 

At least if its available it might help cruise lines begin to sail. They can say people have the ability to get vaccinated. 

[travelhound]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I hope people will get it. I've already heard friends who dont trust vaccines and said never got a flu shot and never got the flu. Let everyone else get it. ..and these arent young people, its age groups who probably should get it. I'll try and get it, but idk who else. At my parents age, every year they have gotten the flu shot before but this year sheltering in place still and think there is a danger just getting out to get shots. 

 

At least if its available it might help cruise lines begin to sail. They can say people have the ability to get vaccinated. 

The anti-vaxxers will make it easier for those who want to get vaccinated.  I will be first in line 🙂