Speculation on when and how cruising will begin

[islandwannabee]

This is how I see things happening in the next 6 months or so. First Royal will cancel all bookings on all ships for this  time frame.

 

Then will announce the 3 or 4 ships that are sailing 3-4 day cruising, booking will begin and they will allow 50% first come first serve. 

 

I don't really see how else they can do it, every itinerary will change on the select few ships that will sail. 

 

Right now they have about 15 ships leaving out of the u.s. from jan to June, but only a few will actually be sailing, and there is no way to cram all the bookings that already exist into the few ships that will sail. 

 

How do you think they will accomplish this?

[DHADEN]

One Word......

 

VACCINE

The Sooner-The Better!!!

 

When it is available to everyone, cruising can get back to normal.

JMO

Edited October 30, 2020 by DHADEN

[bouhunter]

3 minutes ago, islandwannabee said:

This is how I see things happening in the next 6 months or so. First Royal will cancel all bookings on all ships for this  time frame.

 

Then will announce the 3 or 4 ships that are sailing 3-4 day cruising, booking will begin and they will allow 50% first come first serve. 

 

I don't really see how else they can do it, every itinerary will change on the select few ships that will sail. 

 

Right now they have about 15 ships leaving out of the u.s. from jan to June, but only a few will actually be sailing, and there is no way to cram all the bookings that already exist into the few ships that will sail. 

 

How do you think they will accomplish this?

You answered your own question, they'll cancel existing cruises and open new limited bookings.  Someday......

[islandwannabee]

This is only my opinion, but other cruise friends of mine seem to think they will magically name a date and all ships will be sailing with current itineraries. 

[molly361]

I also think that is how they are going to do it at first.  That way they can see whichever cabins and categories that they want to fill.  When,  who knows

[molly361]

1 minute ago, islandwannabee said:

This is only my opinion, but other cruise friends of mine seem to think they will magically name a date and all ships will be sailing with current itineraries. 

Not gonna happen

[HaveWeMetYet]

They are not going to cancel all bookings and start over. They will keep doing what they have done, cancel those ships that are not going to sail. There is no issue with over capacity for the ones that will sail. 

Here is what the CEO said about restarting yesterday.

 

" we are currently planning for a very limited initial return and a gradual ramp-up during the first half of 2021. As a result, our 2021 capacity will be significantly lower than 2019. Deployment in the spring is expected to be highly focused on short sailings from key dry markets in both the U.S. and Asia Pacific regions. we will also make the most out of our incredible private destination in the Bahamas, Perfect Day at CocoCay".

[Crazy planning mom]

Yes, I would expect all sailings except those on Navigator, Mariner maybe Independence be cancelled the first couple months of sailing.

[ATC cruiser]

Nothing in the CEOs statement prevents them from canceling everything and starting over. Starting over let’s them charge what ever they want for the very limited amount of capacity they will have. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. 

[islandwannabee]

1 minute ago, ATC cruiser said:

Nothing in the CEOs statement prevents them from canceling everything and starting over. Starting over let’s them charge what ever they want for the very limited amount of capacity they will have. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. 

I agree.

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, ATC cruiser said:

Nothing in the CEOs statement prevents them from canceling everything and starting over. Starting over let’s them charge what ever they want for the very limited amount of capacity they will have. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. 

Boy would they have some angry customers who went to a lot of trouble to book for double pts and lift and shift.

 

They would have to be nuts to alienate so many... . Maybe you mean on just the first few start ups?

[islandwannabee]

1 minute ago, firefly333 said:

Boy would they have some angry customers who went to a lot of trouble to book for double pts and lift and shift.

 

They would have to be nuts to alienate so many... . Maybe you mean on just the first few start ups?

No matter how you  slice the cake, customers will be angry, the ones who booked x ship, but only y is sailing. The ones who were going to island a,  are now cruising to nowhere and so on.

[HaveWeMetYet]

They are not going to cancel all cruises and start over.

 

The ships that do sail from the US are going to Labadee and Coco Cay and maybe Key West that is about it. No fuel burning long hauls to the Eastern Caribbean or Southern Caribbean either. At least thru the Spring of 2021.

[bouhunter]

3 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

They are not going to cancel all cruises and start over.

 

The ships that do sail from the US are going to Labadee and Coco Cay and maybe Key West that is about it. No fuel burning long hauls to the Eastern Caribbean or Southern Caribbean either. At least thru the Spring of 2021.

Well at first they're still going to cancel MOST of them......   At minimum.

[Eddie Wilson]

8 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

 

The ships that do sail from the US are going to Labadee and Coco Cay and maybe Key West that is about it. 

 

Key West is voting next week to determine if large cruise ships will be allowed.  I think the size is 1,500 people. 

If that is passed, not many RCL ships even at half capacity would be allowed to dock at the city.

 

Eddie

[HaveWeMetYet]

6 minutes ago, Eddie Wilson said:

 

Key West is voting next week to determine if large cruise ships will be allowed.  I think the size is 1,500 people. 

If that is passed, not many RCL ships even at half capacity would be allowed to dock at the city.

 

Eddie

That will be another interesting thing to watch on election night in the US.

[Sunshine3601]

1 hour ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

They are not going to cancel all bookings and start over. They will keep doing what they have done, cancel those ships that are not going to sail. There is no issue with over capacity for the ones that will sail. 

Here is what the CEO said about restarting yesterday.

 

" we are currently planning for a very limited initial return and a gradual ramp-up during the first half of 2021. As a result, our 2021 capacity will be significantly lower than 2019. Deployment in the spring is expected to be highly focused on short sailings from key dry markets in both the U.S. and Asia Pacific regions. we will also make the most out of our incredible private destination in the Bahamas, Perfect Day at CocoCay".

They keep saying drive up markets.   I hope that includes Cape Liberty and/or Baltimore since a lot of us can drive there.   

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, islandwannabee said:

This is only my opinion, but other cruise friends of mine seem to think they will magically name a date and all ships will be sailing with current itineraries. 

I think they are day dreaming but nothing wrong with wishful thinking.  

 

[orville99]

47 minutes ago, ATC cruiser said:

Nothing in the CEOs statement prevents them from canceling everything and starting over. Starting over let’s them charge what ever they want for the very limited amount of capacity they will have. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. 

One minor thing will IMO prevent this strategy from happening - $$$$$. If they cancel every cruise that is currently being booked, their bottom line will never recover, even if they attempt to re-start with a "clean slate" of new cruises. They just announced yesterday that they had net revenue of negative $34 million, because they had to make so many refunds on the current passenger cancellations, no sail stoppage, and backing out the non-refundable deposits that they refunded after they had already recorded as revenue.

[islandwannabee]

1 minute ago, orville99 said:

One minor thing will IMO prevent this strategy from happening - $$$$$. If they cancel every cruise that is currently being booked, their bottom line will never recover, even if they attempt to re-start with a "clean slate" of new cruises. They just announced yesterday that they had net revenue of negative $34 million, because they had to make so many refunds on the current passenger cancellations, no sail stoppage, and backing out the non-refundable deposits that they refunded after they had already recorded as revenue.

But they have been taking months to refund, by that time, they will have the new booking monies.

[ownedbypets]

I got an amazing deal on a 4 night on Mariner in Feb so of course they will cancel and make everyone rebook at a higher price. We would take a refund or FCC.

[spunks]

I saw from a major an analyst for a major bank said he expects most cruising to be canceled until 2022. His reasoning is that the cruise lines are hemoraging billions in cash right now but leaving the empty ships bobbing up and down is relatively cheap. He said restarting a ship is very expensive and the cruise lines could not afford to start them back up only to have them shut down again. He said the cruise lines could not survive that.

[mek]

22 minutes ago, orville99 said:

One minor thing will IMO prevent this strategy from happening - $$$$$. If they cancel every cruise that is currently being booked, their bottom line will never recover, even if they attempt to re-start with a "clean slate" of new cruises. They just announced yesterday that they had net revenue of negative $34 million, because they had to make so many refunds on the current passenger cancellations, no sail stoppage, and backing out the non-refundable deposits that they refunded after they had already recorded as revenue.

Well exactly! I'm not how they will handle it if they reschedule cruises once they start up, but I can't imagine anyone thinks they will do blanket cancellations and have to refund all of those deposits. (Talking about canceling multiple months at one time, not month by month like they are doing now.)

Edited October 30, 2020 by mek

[orville99]

Just now, mek said:

Well exactly, I'm not how they will handle it if they reschedule cruises once they start up, but I can't imagine anyone thinks they will do blanket cancellations and have to refund all of those deposits.

I expect that when they restart, they will begin with 3-4 night cruises to nowhere (or possibly their private islands, but with limited amenities that don’t require any local island staff), and when they start the longer cruises, the ports and on-shore activities will be tightly controlled. I also expect to see ships/cabin categories begin to show as sold out when they reach the max allowed capacity.

[neverbeenhere]

Speculation: Surely, April 31, 2020 cruises will start in earnest. (Ernest, Please don't call me Shirley)

 

Who knows? If the top brass don't know, how can I even give a reasonable guess.