New beginnings

[Trimone]

For some reason I can’t explain it, something is about to happen? 
 

Sail dates?
 

Chapter 11?

 

There just doesn’t seem any fresh news coming from anywhere, except cancellations.

[oteixeira]

Because you can't put out US based news with the change of office.  Give the new group a week or two to put their plan in place and then I think you will see plenty of new news.  I don't know if it will be good or bad, but I think now that the change has happened stuff can start to flow again.

[HaveWeMetYet]

I think everyone, including cruise line execs, are waiting to see what the CDC in the US does, and if the vaccine rollout will reduce covid numbers in a significant way.

It is a waiting game for now.

[Trimone]

I just hope it’s good news, I can understand everyone is in the same boat with changes at the top, over in the U.K. we don’t know what the new team views are on cruises.

Anyway let’s stay positive.

[FranknBeans]

1 hour ago, Trimone said:

For some reason I can’t explain it, something is about to happen? 
 

Sail dates?
 

Chapter 11?

 

There just doesn’t seem any fresh news coming from anywhere, except cancellations.

Sounds like your smoking something really good.

[Trimone]

30 minutes ago, FranknBeans said:

Sounds like your smoking something really good.

Go to “all my booked sailings are saying this”

something is going on...

[All-ready2cruise]

Just now, Trimone said:

Go to “all my booked sailings are saying this”

something is going on...

You're right, something is going on, we just don't know what.  2 of my 3 cruises have the message that my cruises are on hold and to make a payment.  No way is a payment due on any of them.  

 

 

[Indyopie]

Where are your sailings embarking and going? When?  We have 2 and both look fine.

[dumbth]

I just got my FCCs and 10% coupon, so made a reservation for my original cruise at about the same price with a much worse cabin. Halloween in Maui, which is the latest date they offer no questions asked cancellations up to 2 weeks before. I got the web site to accept my 10% coupon but FCCs are not allowed for deposit, so there goes a new $125 down the mystery hole. I had gotten a 150% FCC, but unless I luck out on a bid it won't pay for a comparable experience.

[Sand and Seas]

5 hours ago, All-ready2cruise said:

You're right, something is going on, we just don't know what.  2 of my 3 cruises have the message that my cruises are on hold and to make a payment.  No way is a payment due on any of them.  

 

 

Three of my four cruises have that message.  (Oct 21, Jan 22 and Dec 22)

 

What is somewhat reassuring to me....we received an email from NCL for our January 2022 cruise this morning indicating they are changing one of the ports.   I think it would be strange for them to bother with that changed port if that cruise and so many others are at risk of cancelling.    Hoping this is just a computer glitch🤞

[PelicanBill]

19 hours ago, Trimone said:

For some reason I can’t explain it, something is about to happen? 
 

Sail dates?
 

Chapter 11?

 

There just doesn’t seem any fresh news coming from anywhere, except cancellations.

 

There are several other discussions going on like this.

The change in administration will likely give us an update on CDC guidance, but this is low priority for the CDC (Vaccines, airlines and hotels are all higher than cruising which is leisure only).  And many believe the guidance will be stricter, with an extended no sail order, not a ready to sail order. Even if they authorize continuing as is, we know where that stands. Test sailings and readiness reports need to be done, and approved, and it will be few ships from few ports to start. In the mean time, we will see cancellations month by month.  As for chapter 11, you can see that news quarterly when the lines file their financial statements. When any of them are at higher risk, the discussions will appear here.  For the moment they have all secured additional capital from lenders and stock offerings.

 

[njkate]

27 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

 

There are several other discussions going on like this.

The change in administration will likely give us an update on CDC guidance, but this is low priority for the CDC (Vaccines, airlines and hotels are all higher than cruising which is leisure only).  And many believe the guidance will be stricter, with an extended no sail order, not a ready to sail order. Even if they authorize continuing as is, we know where that stands. Test sailings and readiness reports need to be done, and approved, and it will be few ships from few ports to start. In the mean time, we will see cancellations month by month.  As for chapter 11, you can see that news quarterly when the lines file their financial statements. When any of them are at higher risk, the discussions will appear here.  For the moment they have all secured additional capital from lenders and stock offerings.

 

Exactly and with Fauci back at the helm I don't hold much hope for cruising from a US port  until late Fall, like November for cruises to be up and running.

[Formula280SS]

34 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

 

There are several other discussions going on like this.

The change in administration will likely give us an update on CDC guidance, but this is low priority for the CDC (Vaccines, airlines and hotels are all higher than cruising which is leisure only).  And many believe the guidance will be stricter, with an extended no sail order, not a ready to sail order. Even if they authorize continuing as is, we know where that stands. Test sailings and readiness reports need to be done, and approved, and it will be few ships from few ports to start. In the mean time, we will see cancellations month by month.  As for chapter 11, you can see that news quarterly when the lines file their financial statements. When any of them are at higher risk, the discussions will appear here.  For the moment they have all secured additional capital from lenders and stock offerings.

 

 

Pretty much agree.

 

There are events happening that will help the positive tests scare risk for cruising, for example, there are WHO changes to various indicators for test, positive testing results and cause of death determinations.  So, there is expected to be significant reporting changes from such, that will come step-in-step with hopefully expected reductions from the vaccinations of the population in the phases.

 

The CDC is back in charge.  However, the large hedge funds and institutional investors have now taken control of the top priority secured debt issuances of the big three cruise lines, the convertible debt recent issuances, and even some private equity placements; and they have considerable regulatory "pull" so to speak.  So, we'll see.

 

The timeline for the vaccinations appear to be clearly much longer than previously expected.  Despite restaurants, bars and other favorites of shutdown now being graced to move towards previous hours and operations (incredibly at the highest rate of cases and deaths since this all began), it does provide some hope that the heavy hand might be magically lifted. 

 

I just don't know if such will apply to the cruise lines; they are still a target that doesn't pay taxes, wages, wage rates, etc. in the states to the satisfaction of many in representative governance; i.e., there are unsettled concessions that might be required to be made.

 

Financially, this push out of the months, to quarters, to possibly requiring vaccinations, IMO will push beyond the cash liquidity of the cruise lines and compliance with loan covenants, terms and conditions beyond existing capabilities and resources.

 

The independent auditor's will be on the hook, upon the issuances of the annual reports and the company's 10K's and 10Q's, will have to deal with the required assessment of "Going Concern" (for a period, generally, of one year from the date of issuance or filing). 

 

How this can be affirmed based on the current cash and asset resources and the massive short and long term debt obligations, during suspended then minimal cruising through 2021, is questionable and not expected.

 

I see the issues beginning to become apparent in the order of NCL, CCL and then RCL.

 

In that order, they simply don't have the ability to go through 2021 and into 2022 first quarter as currently constituted.

 

The status of Customer Deposits, reservation deposits not so much, but subsequent payment deposits and FCC's, have some increasing risk to cruisers.  IMO.

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Formula280SS

[DCGuy64]

The new US president signed an order yesterday requiring both a negative antigen test for COVID from all inbound passengers and a mandatory quarantine, including US citizens and residents. I also understand that Spain is disallowing international travel until 70% of its population is vaccinated, which could be by the end of the summer. These things do not bode well for international tourism right now. I hope I'm wrong about that. I don't typically like being wrong, but this time I hope I am. 😆

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-holidays-to-spain-could-be-delayed-until-end-of-summer-12195251

 

Here's the WH order:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/21/executive-order-promoting-covid-19-safety-in-domestic-and-international-travel/?fbclid=IwAR0hom18S3idyUHvi-Lqe1tr9_AZdd8VVLnB5IEqU9DIX8NBRk5IfSCxa0M

 

And an excerpt regarding international travel:

 

Sec. 5.  International Travel. 

(a)  Policy.  It is the policy of my Administration that, to the extent feasible, travelers seeking to enter the United States from a foreign country shall be: 

(i)   required to produce proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test prior to entry; and 

(ii)  required to comply with other applicable CDC guidelines concerning international travel, including recommended periods of self-quarantine or self-isolation after entry into the United States.

[HaveWeMetYet]

2 hours ago, DCGuy64 said:

The new US president signed an order yesterday requiring both a negative antigen test for COVID from all inbound passengers and a mandatory quarantine, including US citizens and residents. I also understand that Spain is disallowing international travel until 70% of its population is vaccinated, which could be by the end of the summer. These things do not bode well for international tourism right now. I hope I'm wrong about that. I don't typically like being wrong, but this time I hope I am. 😆

 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-holidays-to-spain-could-be-delayed-until-end-of-summer-12195251

 

Here's the WH order:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/21/executive-order-promoting-covid-19-safety-in-domestic-and-international-travel/?fbclid=IwAR0hom18S3idyUHvi-Lqe1tr9_AZdd8VVLnB5IEqU9DIX8NBRk5IfSCxa0M

 

And an excerpt regarding international travel:

 

Sec. 5.  International Travel. 

(a)  Policy.  It is the policy of my Administration that, to the extent feasible, travelers seeking to enter the United States from a foreign country shall be: 

(i)   required to produce proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test prior to entry; and 

(ii)  required to comply with other applicable CDC guidelines concerning international travel, including recommended periods of self-quarantine or self-isolation after entry into the United States.

Carnival has removed all 2021 European sailings from their website. So it looks like they are expecting international travel to pretty much be a no go the rest of the year.

[Trimone]

1 minute ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Carnival has removed all 2021 European sailings from their website. So it looks like they are expecting international travel to pretty much be a no go the rest of the year.

Just checked P&O are still taking bookings for Europe, so carnival have covered their options there, don’t know how popular carnival are in Europe.

[HaveWeMetYet]

5 minutes ago, Trimone said:

Just checked P&O are still taking bookings for Europe, so carnival have covered their options there, don’t know how popular carnival are in Europe.

Princess still has dates also. Maybe they are cutting their exposure with the Carnival brand and planning a much reduced season for this year. We will see.

[Charles4515]

22 hours ago, Trimone said:

For some reason I can’t explain it, something is about to happen? 
 

Sail dates?
 

Chapter 11?

 

There just doesn’t seem any fresh news coming from anywhere, except cancellations.

 

The CDC extended the No Sail Order through September.

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/covid-19-information.html#ExternalPopup

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Charles4515

[Trimone]

10 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

 

The CDC extended the No Sail Order through September.

 

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/covid-19-information.html#ExternalPopup

 

 

Oh dear

[HaveWeMetYet]

36 minutes ago, Trimone said:

Oh dear

The No Sail Order is for last September not 2021.

There is not a new No Sail Order, at least yet.

[deliver42]

There isn't a no sail order extension, just the same suggestion not to cruise. Bad for your health. That should be my choice, not the CDC's.