Iceland's Natural Beauty General - 2022

[sleepybobo]

2 hours ago, id4elizabeth said:

I spoke with a Viking rep this morning and she told me 928 passengers were aboard the Sky for our sailing on July 17.  That's not 75%, but FULL as in FULL capacity.  She said that early on there had been discussions about reduced capacity, but that they had decided that their Covid protocols were so excellent they could load up to the max.  I asked how that was going to work with social distancing in common areas like dining and she said they were extending restaurant hours to accommodate all passengers.   I guess that means some of us will be dining at 3:30 and others at 10:00.  Now, having been led astray by Viking reps recently on any number of issues, I'm not sure I believe what she told me, but there you are.

I’m wondering if it makes sense to have 100% capacity. First, the vaccines aren’t 100% effective. There will always be a chance that positive cases show up during the sailings. Assuming 95% efficacy rate, with 928 passengers, there could be 46 cases, if it’s so unfortunate that someone were infected during the sailing. Of course, with the low infection rate in Iceland and other safety protocols, I hope it’ll never happen to our cruises. Second, how can social distancing be enforced with 928 passengers? Yes, the ship always feels spacious. But it can be quite hectic during morning breakfast hours in the WC on port days. Third, with the delays in making excursions available, is Viking really confident that they can let all 928 passengers book the popular excursions? 

[GVHarrier]

54 minutes ago, vslparis said:

We are arriving at 7am two days before the cruise and plan to hang out at our hotel until we get the results.

We are also arriving at 7:00 am (United from EWR on 6/24) two days prior to cruise. Our room is scheduled to be available for check-in at 3:00 pm. Not sure what we'll be doing. I guess our plan is to go to the hotel and at least drop our luggage and see what they say. Hoping Iceland's process changes. I'd really like to just have some time to walk around the city on arrival day and then do Golden Circle the next day.

[MarkTapley]

2 hours ago, sleepybobo said:

Assuming 95% efficacy rate, with 928 passengers, there could be 46 cases

This is not correct!

 

See reference below, one of many available from a quick Google search, to correctly describe what vaccine efficacy means.

A couple relevant quotes:

 

“One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.”

 

“What the 95% actually means is that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 compared with the control group participants, who weren't vaccinated.”

 

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

[Heartgrove]

6 hours ago, GVHarrier said:

We are also arriving at 7:00 am (United from EWR on 6/24) two days prior to cruise. Our room is scheduled to be available for check-in at 3:00 pm. Not sure what we'll be doing. I guess our plan is to go to the hotel and at least drop our luggage and see what they say. Hoping Iceland's process changes. I'd really like to just have some time to walk around the city on arrival day and then do Golden Circle the next day.

 

Is your hotel on the Government Quarantine List? Our hotel is and told us they will find a space for us when we arrive that morning. The list is quite long so I would be surprised if your hotel is not.

[Peregrina651]

7 hours ago, sleepybobo said:

I’m wondering if it makes sense to have 100% capacity. First, the vaccines aren’t 100% effective. There will always be a chance that positive cases show up during the sailings. Assuming 95% efficacy rate, with 928 passengers, there could be 46 cases, if it’s so unfortunate that someone were infected during the sailing. Of course, with the low infection rate in Iceland and other safety protocols, I hope it’ll never happen to our cruises. Second, how can social distancing be enforced with 928 passengers? Yes, the ship always feels spacious. But it can be quite hectic during morning breakfast hours in the WC on port days. Third, with the delays in making excursions available, is Viking really confident that they can let all 928 passengers book the popular excursions? 

 

I'm starting to think that terms like full capacity and 100% are being used in different ways by different people.  In that light, the only meaningful bit of information is how many people have booked for a specific cruise. 

[Twitchly]

5 hours ago, MarkTapley said:

This is not correct!

 

See reference below, one of many available from a quick Google search, to correctly describe what vaccine efficacy means.

A couple relevant quotes:

 

“One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.”

 

“What the 95% actually means is that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 compared with the control group participants, who weren't vaccinated.”

 

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-vaccine-efficacy-explained.html

Thanks for posting this again, Mark. I really think a lot of peoples’ ongoing fears, even after having been vaccinated, have to do with a misunderstanding of this statistic. Once you’ve been vaccinated, you’re more likely to die in a car accident than get Covid. And if you do get Covid, your chances of dying from it are pretty much zero.

[IWantToLiveOverTheSea]

On 4/28/2021 at 10:34 AM, TayanaLorna said:

Great thanks.  Ordered them.  Looks like they might have a hole for a lanyard.  Can use for the room card too.  Always searching my pockets or bag for that one.

This is my go to lanyard for cruisers - no more fumbling around looking for room card, and taking it in and out whenever I leave the ship or the room!  When it's bed time,  I hang it on the door so I won't forget it. If I go off the ship, I also insert the name/contact info for the port agent for the port I'm visiting - just in case I get lost and fear not making it back to the ship by the onboard time!  But I believe Viking prints the ship phone number on their room cards, so I ease up on worrying about port agent info when cruising on Viking. And obviously, if we're going to be kept in excursion bubbles, it will be less needed!  My vax card won't be kept there. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by IWantToLiveOverTheSea

[Donaghadee]

47 minutes ago, Twitchly said:

Thanks for posting this again, Mark. I really think a lot of peoples’ ongoing fears, even after having been vaccinated, have to do with a misunderstanding of this statistic. Once you’ve been vaccinated, you’re more likely to die in a car accident than get Covid. And if you do get Covid, your chances of dying from it are pretty much zero.

It's also important to know where the 95% statistic came from.  That percentage was derived from observing vaccinated health care workers who spent all day, every day for weeks around infected patients.  Their exposure was nearly continuous.

 

A deep dive into the world where the rest of us live and work shows something different.

A number of studies are showing 0.001% or lower vaccine "breakthrough" infections in the general population.  The stats indicate the COVID vaccines are about as good as those for polio and tetanus,

which is pretty remarkable.

 

[DJVKN]

3 hours ago, Heartgrove said:

 

Is your hotel on the Government Quarantine List? Our hotel is and told us they will find a space for us when we arrive that morning. The list is quite long so I would be surprised if your hotel is not.

Here is the link to the hotels that accept quarantine guest.

https://www.ferdamalastofa.is/en/about-us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-general-info/accommodations-that-welcome-guests-in-quarantine

[Twitchly]

1 hour ago, Donaghadee said:

It's also important to know where the 95% statistic came from.  That percentage was derived from observing vaccinated health care workers who spent all day, every day for weeks around infected patients.  Their exposure was nearly continuous.

 

A deep dive into the world where the rest of us live and work shows something different.

A number of studies are showing 0.001% or lower vaccine "breakthrough" infections in the general population.  The stats indicate the COVID vaccines are about as good as those for polio and tetanus,

which is pretty remarkable.

 

Great points! 

[TayanaLorna]

14 hours ago, id4elizabeth said:

I spoke with a Viking rep this morning and she told me 928 passengers were aboard the Sky for our sailing on July 17.  That's not 75%, but FULL as in FULL capacity.  She said that early on there had been discussions about reduced capacity, but that they had decided that their Covid protocols were so excellent they could load up to the max.  I asked how that was going to work with social distancing in common areas like dining and she said they were extending restaurant hours to accommodate all passengers.   I guess that means some of us will be dining at 3:30 and others at 10:00.  Now, having been led astray by Viking reps recently on any number of issues, I'm not sure I believe what she told me, but there you are.

But the earliest we can book the Restaurant is 5:45 pm.  That is only 15 minutes earlier then normal.

[SantaFe1]

13 minutes ago, TayanaLorna said:

Now, having been led astray by Viking reps recently on any number of issues, I'm not sure I believe what she told me, but there you are.

I just don’t think the regular reps know much of anything concrete about these cruises.  The best I have gotten is a call back after sending an email to tellus.  These are actual customer service people, not booking reps.  They have the most knowledge, and are also willing to come out and say it when they don’t know, which I appreciate.  I don’t excuse Viking for it, but some of these things just aren’t finalized yet.  I find it hard to be patient, but I guess that is what we intrepid explorers must do right now.

[Donaghadee]

8 minutes ago, Twitchly said:

Great points! 

 

We should also look at probability.  As more people are infected and recover, or are vaccinated,

the number of available virus hosts diminish.  At the moment, CDC reports 127 million fully vaccinated and 15.7 million diagnosed, recovered and essentially immune.  It is also estimated well over 20 million were infected and didn't know it.  Some may even have natural immunity. 

Essentially, over half the US population is out of the host pool.

 

That leaves maybe 165 million available to feed the beast.  CDC reports there are about 47,000 active, diagnosed cases in the US this week.  Double that number for people who don't bother to get tested or are asymptomatic.  Round that number up to an even 100K.  That's 0.0006% of available hosts who are infected. 

 

Now if you are vaccinated, sit back and consider your odds of encountering someone who is infected and actively shedding virus in the first place.  Then factor in the odds your vaccination will fail you.

 

If you are worried about getting the bug, you'd better worry about where to spend all your lottery winnings too.

 

 

 

 

[Peregrina651]

Thank you.  I was hoping that someone would start looking at the probabilities.  

 

We have a lot of data now.  What do the numbers say about false positives and false negatives for the testing? I haven't had a chance to ask professor Google.  

[LindaS272]

2 hours ago, DJVKN said:

Here is the link to the hotels that accept quarantine guest.

https://www.ferdamalastofa.is/en/about-us/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-general-info/accommodations-that-welcome-guests-in-quarantine

If you pick one of these hotels, best to confirm with them that they are really doing quarantine for people fresh off the plane. We are doing a land-based tour on our own beginning June 14, and when it became clear that we couldn’t sightsee on our way to accommodations 100 miles away, we started researching. Our previously booked hotel was not on the list, so we picked another one nearby on the list. We checked with both the new one and the original one, and the one on the list said “nope—not doing quarantine,” while the original not on the list said they would move us to a larger unit with a private entrance. Plus, that one has an on-site restaurant and the quarantine listed one no longer serves meals. So best to check.

[sleepybobo]

Thanks @MarkTapley and @Donaghadee! Very informative posts.  Even after I booked Iceland, I still asked whether it's too early to travel internationally this summer.  But, as fully vaccinated individuals, the risk for us is closed to none.  I read that the vaccines are very effective against the variants too.  Definitely feel much more comfortable now.

[Twitchly]

52 minutes ago, Donaghadee said:

At the moment, CDC reports 127 million fully vaccinated and 15.7 million diagnosed, recovered and essentially immune.  It is also estimated well over 20 million were infected and didn't know it.  Some may even have natural immunity. 

Essentially, over half the US population is out of the host pool.

Mostly accurate. Some people who have had Covid have also had the vaccine (like my husband). So you can’t really add those two numbers together. 
 

But nearly 50% of all Americans have had at least one shot, and nearly 60% of all adults. (Source: New York Times) Even one shot from Pfizer or Moderna has been shown to have 84% effectiveness over time, as seen in Britain, where they gave everyone one shot initially in order to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. 
 

And, as you say, add to that the number of unvaccinated people who have had Covid plus the people who had Covid and never got diagnosed, and we’re in pretty good shape in this country. Even if we don’t know those exact numbers at this point.

[Donaghadee]

48 minutes ago, Peregrina651 said:

Thank you.  I was hoping that someone would start looking at the probabilities.  

 

We have a lot of data now.  What do the numbers say about false positives and false negatives for the testing? I haven't had a chance to ask professor Google.  

I'm seeing up to 4% for sloppy technicians, 2.5% seems average.  I hope Viking beats the average.

[sleepybobo]

13 minutes ago, Donaghadee said:

I'm seeing up to 4% for sloppy technicians, 2.5% seems average.  I hope Viking beats the average.

Per the headline news on CC today, CDC updated the cruise guidance again.  Vaccinated passengers don't need to be tested during embarkation and disembarkation; unless they are showing COVID symptoms.  

 

Seems the restrictions are getting more relaxed.  May be vaccinated people may not need to be tested entering Iceland or coming back to the US next month.  May be.... 

Edited May 17, 2021 by sleepybobo

[Donaghadee]

Just now, Twitchly said:

Mostly accurate. Some people who have had Covid have also had the vaccine (like my husband). So you can’t really add those two numbers together. 
 

But nearly 50% of all Americans have had at least one shot, and nearly 60% of all adults. (Source: New York Times) Even one shot from Pfizer or Moderna has been shown to have 84% effectiveness over time, as seen in Britain, where they gave everyone one shot initially in order to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. 
 

And, as you say, add to that the number of unvaccinated people who have had Covid plus the people who had Covid and never got diagnosed, and we’re in pretty good shape in this country. Even if we don’t know those exact numbers at this point.

I did not combine recovered and vaccinated with the vaccinated only.  Nor were people who are half vaccinated counted.  CDC has all the numbers and graphs if you feel like going numb.

 

All numbers are a moving target, so nailing anything down as hard as fast is nigh on impossible.

I was merely trying to offer approximations to illustrate probabilities.

 

Nonetheless, the pandemic is dissipating quickly.  Having anxiety over the possibility of being quarantined, tested or otherwise inconvenienced is misplaced effort.  Life is short, sweat something else.

[Donaghadee]

10 minutes ago, sleepybobo said:

Per the headline news on CC today, CDC updated the cruise guidance again.  Vaccinated passengers don't need to be tested during embarkation and disembarkation; unless they are showing COVID symptoms.  

Hundreds of PCR tests per day have to be a significant expense for Viking.  I wonder if they'll drop them completely?  Ditto for KEF airport.

[Peregrina651]

55 minutes ago, Donaghadee said:

Hundreds of PCR tests per day have to be a significant expense for Viking.  I wonder if they'll drop them completely?  Ditto for KEF airport.

 

You mean after they spent beaucoup de $$$$ installing the equipment in all of their ships???????

 

I don't think so.

 

IMO: I don't think we will see the testing disappear in the near future. Not on the Welcome Back cruises and not as long as vaccination is required to sail with Viking. Plus, I think that crew testing will be the last to disappear.

 

 

[Frenchberet]

3 hours ago, Donaghadee said:

 

We should also look at probability.  As more people are infected and recover, or are vaccinated,

the number of available virus hosts diminish.  At the moment, CDC reports 127 million fully vaccinated and 15.7 million diagnosed, recovered and essentially immune.  It is also estimated well over 20 million were infected and didn't know it.  Some may even have natural immunity. 

Essentially, over half the US population is out of the host pool.

 

That leaves maybe 165 million available to feed the beast.  CDC reports there are about 47,000 active, diagnosed cases in the US this week.  Double that number for people who don't bother to get tested or are asymptomatic.  Round that number up to an even 100K.  That's 0.0006% of available hosts who are infected. 

 

Now if you are vaccinated, sit back and consider your odds of encountering someone who is infected and actively shedding virus in the first place.  Then factor in the odds your vaccination will fail you.

 

If you are worried about getting the bug, you'd better worry about where to spend all your lottery winnings too.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for taking the time to present this excellent analysis.  Great job 👍

[vslparis]

15 hours ago, GVHarrier said:

We are also arriving at 7:00 am (United from EWR on 6/24) two days prior to cruise. Our room is scheduled to be available for check-in at 3:00 pm. Not sure what we'll be doing. I guess our plan is to go to the hotel and at least drop our luggage and see what they say. Hoping Iceland's process changes. I'd really like to just have some time to walk around the city on arrival day and then do Golden Circle the next day.

I think that we are on the same flight on 23 June  (UA966 at 9:25 pm ) .  Our hotel is allowing a luggage drop and newly arrived passengers to wait for their results there .  That is going to be a long wait so I too am hoping that the test on arrival thing changes for vaccinated passengers. Not holding out a lot of hope for that but am willing to be pleasantly

surprised 😉. Have a Golden Circle tour booked for the next day . 

We are fully prepared to just go with the flow in these unusual times.

[Heidi13]

1 hour ago, Peregrina651 said:

 

You mean after they spent beaucoup de $$$$ installing the equipment in all of their ships???????

 

I don't think so.

 

IMO: I don't think we will see the testing disappear in the near future. Not on the Welcome Back cruises and not as long as vaccination is required to sail with Viking. Plus, I think that crew testing will be the last to disappear.

 

 

Totally agree.

 

Viking have expended significant Captial Funds installing the labs aboard the ships and have probably increased the operational budget by signing on articles, the new laboratory tech(s). They have also promoted the testing extensively since publishing the Health & Safety Policy.

 

Since the labs don't have rental & utility costs, I expect the cost of processing tests is fairly minimal.

 

If cruising is to continue, they can handle an isolated infection, but they just can't afford an outbreak. So for this reason alone, I agree that testing will most likely continue, at least for the Welcome Back cruises.