I'm beginning to think the CDC may very well lose the lawsuit that Florida initiated

[ldubs]

Just now, CruiserBruce said:

Ha ha!....it would have to be married to my wife's sister!

 

Drat's! 😄

[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

 

OMG!  OnTheWeb's brother is married to CruiserBruce's sister!  Who woulda thought!  😄😄

He's actually visiting here this weekend. I guess I'll have to tell him. I imagine he will be quite surprised.🤦‍♂️

[songbird1329]

On 5/20/2021 at 1:29 PM, JRG said:

 

May I ask if you have ever used the doctrine of "substance over form" in your mediations,  given the latitude for interpretation of the law that mediation provides?

 

 

That’s an interesting question.

[JRG]

1 hour ago, songbird1329 said:

That’s an interesting question.

 

It certainly took you long enough.

 

You'll find it used in tax cases.   But in essence,  the same principle holds true.

 

Substance over Form

 

Essentially,   the substance (aggregate economic loss) is greater than the form (health mandate),  at this particular point in time.

 

Another poster is having an arbiter/mediator for lunch or dinner later.    That might be something for them to argue about and compare their answer to yours:

 

The game is a foot Doctor, (and not the Dr.Schol type either) 

 

"How would you rule if you were the lucky mediator"   

[mom says]

1 hour ago, JRG said:

 

"How would you rule if you were the lucky mediator"

A mediator does not rule, they facilitate discussion and negotiation. An arbitrator can rule.

[Hlitner]

I do not read tea leaves or have a crystal ball.  But I do follow the industry and detect a change in attitude from the CEO's of both CCL and RCI.  The attitude shift has happened in the past few days and there have been indications that there are ongoing discussions between these lines and some folks from the CDC.  Whatever has been happening (behind closed doors) seems to have resulted in increased optimism that Alaskan cruises (likely from Seattle) are going to restart by the end of July.  If this is correct it would mean that the CDC has finally adopted a policy based on 95, 98 or 100% vaccinations.  Or course the problem is that although that would work for Seattle cruises it would simply cause more problems in Florida because it would be contrary to the new Florida law.  Perhaps it is ironic that although Florida has led the charge to get cruises resumed they might be the one State where that is delayed because of their own State Law.  Go figure.

 

Hank

[JRG]

38 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Or course the problem is that although that would work for Seattle cruises it would simply cause more problems in Florida because it would be contrary to the new Florida law. 

 

True,   let's see if 'deeming' works at the state level.

[songbird1329]

On 5/22/2021 at 4:10 PM, JRG said:

 

It certainly took you long enough.

 

You'll find it used in tax cases.   But in essence,  the same principle holds true.

 

Substance over Form

 

Essentially,   the substance (aggregate economic loss) is greater than the form (health mandate),  at this particular point in time.

 

Another poster is having an arbiter/mediator for lunch or dinner later.    That might be something for them to argue about and compare their answer to yours:

 

The game is a foot Doctor, (and not the Dr.Schol type either) 

 

"How would you rule if you were the lucky mediator"   

Omg you’re kidding, right?

 

health mandates are NOT form.  They are as much substance as economic loss.

 

and mediators don’t rule, they facilitate.

[songbird1329]

19 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I do not read tea leaves or have a crystal ball.  But I do follow the industry and detect a change in attitude from the CEO's of both CCL and RCI.  The attitude shift has happened in the past few days and there have been indications that there are ongoing discussions between these lines and some folks from the CDC.  Whatever has been happening (behind closed doors) seems to have resulted in increased optimism that Alaskan cruises (likely from Seattle) are going to restart by the end of July.  If this is correct it would mean that the CDC has finally adopted a policy based on 95, 98 or 100% vaccinations.  Or course the problem is that although that would work for Seattle cruises it would simply cause more problems in Florida because it would be contrary to the new Florida law.  Perhaps it is ironic that although Florida has led the charge to get cruises resumed they might be the one State where that is delayed because of their own State Law.  Go figure.

 

Hank

I am reading the situation the same way you are.

Edited May 23, 2021 by songbird1329

[CPT Trips]

23 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I do not read tea leaves or have a crystal ball.  But I do follow the industry and detect a change in attitude from the CEO's of both CCL and RCI.  The attitude shift has happened in the past few days and there have been indications that there are ongoing discussions between these lines and some folks from the CDC.  Whatever has been happening (behind closed doors) seems to have resulted in increased optimism that Alaskan cruises (likely from Seattle) are going to restart by the end of July.  If this is correct it would mean that the CDC has finally adopted a policy based on 95, 98 or 100% vaccinations.  Or course the problem is that although that would work for Seattle cruises it would simply cause more problems in Florida because it would be contrary to the new Florida law.  Perhaps it is ironic that although Florida has led the charge to get cruises resumed they might be the one State where that is delayed because of their own State Law.  Go figure.

 

Hank

Go figure is right . . . here are a few statements from their filing again CDC. 

“Despite the virus, and those who would lock down society indefinitely, people are traveling again. They are doing so safely with protective measures like vaccines, sanitation, and social distancing.”

 

“Multiple FDA-approved vaccines are now available, and

most of the U.S. population will likely be vaccinated by summer. Moreover, the effectiveness of the FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccines dwarfs the effectiveness of, for example, the average influenza vaccine. This explains why, on March 8, 2021, the CDC released a statement that fully vaccinated people could, in its view, begin resuming certain activities.”

 

“Defendants failed to consider lesser alternatives, such as imposing reasonable COVID-19 protocols, which have proved successful abroad.”

 

Combine these assertions made by Florida with the discussions between CDC and cruise lines, and it will truly be ironic if their state law is what keeps cruises from restarting from their ports. I can’t wait to hear the spin when DeSantis and the legislature revokes the “can’t ask” law.

 

 

 

[Hlitner]

17 minutes ago, CPT Trips said:

Go figure is right . . . here are a few statements from their filing again CDC. 

“Despite the virus, and those who would lock down society indefinitely, people are traveling again. They are doing so safely with protective measures like vaccines, sanitation, and social distancing.”

 

“Multiple FDA-approved vaccines are now available, and

most of the U.S. population will likely be vaccinated by summer. Moreover, the effectiveness of the FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccines dwarfs the effectiveness of, for example, the average influenza vaccine. This explains why, on March 8, 2021, the CDC released a statement that fully vaccinated people could, in its view, begin resuming certain activities.”

 

“Defendants failed to consider lesser alternatives, such as imposing reasonable COVID-19 protocols, which have proved successful abroad.”

 

Combine these assertions made by Florida with the discussions between CDC and cruise lines, and it will truly be ironic if their state law is what keeps cruises from restarting from their ports. I can’t wait to hear the spin when DeSantis and the legislature revokes the “can’t ask” law.

 

 

 

I have devoured lots of data, statistics, and narratives including what is on the CDC's own web site.  My conclusion is to simply agree with Dr. Walensky (CDC Director) when she said that fully vaccinated folks do not get sick and do not spread COVID.  I have waited for somebody here or something (based on real data) to show me where I am wrong.  Haven't seen it yet.  I would also challenge the CDC to show me any real evidence that a cruise ship with 100% vaccinated is a COVID risk for anyone.  They have no such evidence.  So why all the dramatics with the CSO, all kinds of steps, ridiculous rules that have nothing to do with COVID, etc?  Eventually the CDC will find a face saving way to allow cruising to restart (with mostly vaccinated folks).  But they could do that today as easily as a month from now.

 

Hank 

[JRG]

7 hours ago, songbird1329 said:

Omg you’re kidding, right?

 

health mandates are NOT form.  They are as much substance as economic loss.

 

Look at it strictly from the public health orientation  (as the CDC should see it)

 

The danger to public health from extended economic deprivation (substance) is greater

than the danger to public health from Covid-19 (at this point in time) resulting from the "form" of the health mandate,  because vaccinations have achieved some level of success.

 

 

 

[TNcruising02]

On 5/22/2021 at 7:45 PM, Hlitner said:

I do not read tea leaves or have a crystal ball.  But I do follow the industry and detect a change in attitude from the CEO's of both CCL and RCI.  The attitude shift has happened in the past few days and there have been indications that there are ongoing discussions between these lines and some folks from the CDC.  Whatever has been happening (behind closed doors) seems to have resulted in increased optimism that Alaskan cruises (likely from Seattle) are going to restart by the end of July.  If this is correct it would mean that the CDC has finally adopted a policy based on 95, 98 or 100% vaccinations.  Or course the problem is that although that would work for Seattle cruises it would simply cause more problems in Florida because it would be contrary to the new Florida law.  Perhaps it is ironic that although Florida has led the charge to get cruises resumed they might be the one State where that is delayed because of their own State Law.  Go figure.

 

Hank

It's a great thing about Seattle cruises!  Maybe in Florida they can complete their test cruises in June, since that is the current requirement.

[Hlitner]

13 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

It's a great thing about Seattle cruises!  Maybe in Florida they can complete their test cruises in June, since that is the current requirement.

You can quote me on this when it happens, but I do not think you will ever see a "test cruise."  Yes, it is part of the current CSO issued by the CDC but I am speculating that when the current talks (going on between cruise lines and the CDC) result in some kind of deal the test cruises will disappear.  They will be replaced with the cruise lines imposing a high level of mandatory vaccinations (at least 95% and 100% on some lines) with additional support from some antigen testing.  The entire concept of "test cruises" is absurd, very expensive, and ridiculous.  Whoever at the CDC came up with that stupid idea should be "keel hauled."    I think many here on CC have never read all the silly language regarding those proposed test cruises.   The language called for each and every ship to have its own test cruise (imagine the cost and logistics).  And then even a single case of COVID could undo everything and have that ship again shut down for days or even weeks (and the CDC might then demand another test cruise).     

 

Hank

[ontheweb]

9 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

You can quote me on this when it happens, but I do not think you will ever see a "test cruise."  Yes, it is part of the current CSO issued by the CDC but I am speculating that when the current talks (going on between cruise lines and the CDC) result in some kind of deal the test cruises will disappear.  They will be replaced with the cruise lines imposing a high level of mandatory vaccinations (at least 95% and 100% on some lines) with additional support from some antigen testing.  The entire concept of "test cruises" is absurd, very expensive, and ridiculous.  Whoever at the CDC came up with that stupid idea should be "keel hauled."    I think many here on CC have never read all the silly language regarding those proposed test cruises.   The language called for each and every ship to have its own test cruise (imagine the cost and logistics).  And then even a single case of COVID could undo everything and have that ship again shut down for days or even weeks (and the CDC might then demand another test cruise).     

 

Hank

And despite all that, there have been previous posts where the writers wanted to know when they would start and how he or she could be among those sailing. 

 

And there are still some who think there will be a mixture of starts some by the 95%/98% rule and others by the test cruises since they think there is a huge market of unvaccinated who the cruise lines will desire to accommodate.

[chengkp75]

26 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The language called for each and every ship to have its own test cruise (imagine the cost and logistics).

And yet, I don't hear you complaining about the VSP inspections, done on a per ship basis, to see if the crew know, and are capable and trained to follow the protocols in real life.  And, each new ship has to undergo one of these inspections, with full meal service, but no passengers, before it is granted its certificate of compliance to board passengers in the US.

[Hlitner]

53 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

And yet, I don't hear you complaining about the VSP inspections, done on a per ship basis, to see if the crew know, and are capable and trained to follow the protocols in real life.  And, each new ship has to undergo one of these inspections, with full meal service, but no passengers, before it is granted its certificate of compliance to board passengers in the US.

Geez, lets not make it personal as the truth is I do not personally care (at this point all of our cruise bookings are in places out of the reach of the CDC).  That being said, test cruises involve real passengers, real food (expensive), bringing in an entire normal complement of port employees, other associated expenses, all being borne by an industry that is already bleeding cash at a ridiculous rate.  And we are not talking about an overnight or 2 day "fam" cruise but a real cruise.  

 

The thing about all of this is that if one assumes everyone aboard is vaccinated then none of this is necessary given the CDC's own data (which they like to ignore).   On a fully vaccinated cruise there would be no need for social distancing, no need for masks, no need for many special onboard protocols related to COVID.  For ships where there is not a full vaccination mandate (which is what the Governor of Florida supports) I cannot even imagine how it would work on a ship (test cruise or not) and you sure would not find me on that ship.  We have 3 cruises booked in the next 6 months (all outside the USA) and everyone of them has a 100% mandatory vaccination policy (which gives me a decent level of comfort).    

 

Is there a pent up demand for cruises where not everyone is vaccinated?  Apparently yes, but there is no forgiving lunacy.  Anyone taking such a voyage would need to be prepared for extra days/weeks in quarantine, the inability to use public (i.e. airlines) for weeks, etc. etc. in the likely event that somebody aboard develops COVID.  I am also wondering where such a ship could go (i.e. ports) other then Alaska.  Nearly every (if not all) the ports/countries in the Caribbean, with the exception of Mexico, have entry rules that require testing, vaccinations, or both.  Most of the required testing involves PCR testing (not the fast/cheap antigen tests) which are unlikely to be handled (in bulk) on any ship.  So you have to wonder what ports will allow cruise ships where not everyone is vaccinated?

 

Hank

[Hlitner]

2 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Geez, lets not make it personal as the truth is I do not personally care (at this point all of our cruise bookings are in places out of the reach of the CDC).  That being said, test cruises involve real passengers, real food (expensive), bringing in an entire normal complement of port employees, other associated expenses, all being borne by an industry that is already bleeding cash at a ridiculous rate.  And we are not talking about an overnight or 2 day "fam" cruise but a real cruise.  

 

The thing about all of this is that if one assumes everyone aboard is vaccinated then none of this is necessary given the CDC's own data (which they like to ignore).   On a fully vaccinated cruise there would be no need for social distancing, no need for masks, no need for many special onboard protocols related to COVID.  For ships where there is not a full vaccination mandate (which is what the Governor of Florida supports) I cannot even imagine how it would work on a ship (test cruise or not) and you sure would not find me on that ship.  We have 3 cruises booked in the next 6 months (all outside the USA) and everyone of them has a 100% mandatory vaccination policy (which gives me a decent level of comfort).    

 

Is there a pent up demand for cruises where not everyone is vaccinated?  Apparently yes, but there is no forgiving lunacy.  Anyone taking such a voyage would need to be prepared for extra days/weeks in quarantine, the inability to use public (i.e. airlines) for weeks, etc. etc. in the likely event that somebody aboard develops COVID.  I am also wondering where such a ship could go (i.e. ports) other then Alaska.  Nearly every (if not all) the ports/countries in the Caribbean, with the exception of Mexico, have entry rules that require testing, vaccinations, or both.  Most of the required testing involves PCR testing (not the fast/cheap antigen tests) which are unlikely to be handled (in bulk) on any ship.  So you have to wonder what ports will allow cruise ships where not everyone is vaccinated?  I guess St Thomas and St Maarten are possible since they only require an Antigen test (which ships should be able to perform).  

 

Hank

 

[JRG]

6 hours ago, Hlitner said:

The language called for each and every ship to have its own test cruise (imagine the cost and logistics). 

 

I wondered about this out loud last week to see if any cruisers were "planning" or "getting" ready to be a test cruiser and I saw only 1 reply from an NCL post  before the thread drifted off...

 

So unless there are scores of test cruisers out there getting ready (speak up and say something) ?

 

I think the test cruises might be unicorns.    Not sure,  just speculating but the lack of logistics do tell the story. 

 

.......in other news.....

 

On the eastern front,   the world is watching and waiting for news as the great mediator-facilitated battle continues behind closed doors and what will happen to the Guv-vax-pass-standoff  which is starting to to remind us of the dangling chad butterfly ballot days.  I'm just joking of course.

 

But wait ....the looming hurricane season is right around the corner and you know what that could do to the best of travel plans.    Damn.

 

It'd be nice to see Congress open up an exclusion on the East Coast so that if hurricane season hits the Caribbean maybe some US port to port sailings could be put in play.

 

Another reason just to update that old PVSA thing,  and make it a thing of the past for the cruising industry.   

Edited May 24, 2021 by JRG

[songbird1329]

On 5/24/2021 at 12:03 AM, JRG said:

 

Look at it strictly from the public health orientation  (as the CDC should see it)

 

The danger to public health from extended economic deprivation (substance) is greater

than the danger to public health from Covid-19 (at this point in time) resulting from the "form" of the health mandate,  because vaccinations have achieved some level of success.

 

 

 

yeah, riiiiiiight....

 

[JRG]

34 minutes ago, songbird1329 said:

yeah, riiiiiiight....

 

50-50,   Phone a friend,   or Ask the Audience?

 

Either way,  thank you for playing who wants to guess what the heck is going to happen here?

[songbird1329]

Interesting development

 

https://www.wesh.com/article/norwegian-and-royal-caribbean-submit-plans-to-resume-sailings-from-ports-outside-florida/36523419?fbclid=IwAR0VmJOK9570Fpj_2

[songbird1329]

1 hour ago, JRG said:

 

50-50,   Phone a friend,   or Ask the Audience?

 

Either way,  thank you for playing who wants to guess what the heck is going to happen here?

 

Public health always trumps economic loss, and the CDC is on the side of public health.  You think public health is form over substance? But you have an interesting view of the world, don't you?????

 

The issue in the court case, as framed by the attorneys who actually drafted the motion papers, whether the CDC, in its effort to protect public health, overreached its authority.  But thanks for playing.

Edited May 25, 2021 by songbird1329

[JRG]

6 minutes ago, songbird1329 said:

Public health always trumps economic loss, and the CDC is on the side of public health.  But you have an interesting view of the world, don't you?????

Not really,   I just never use emojis and people can't tell if I am serious or using humor to make a point.

 

 

[songbird1329]

2 minutes ago, JRG said:

Not really,   I just never use emojis and people can't tell if I am serious or using humor to make a point.

 

 

Yeah, you do have an interesting view of the world.....