Are there any stats about where the positive COVID cases on ships are coming from?

[jacob22]

I wonder if the CDC or anyone has compiled statistics about where are the positive COVID cases onboard ships are coming from?

 

Potential sources might be:

1) False negative antigen tests

2) Exposure while traveling to the cruise port

3) Crew members contracting it from the prior cruise

4) Passengers contract COVID in the days prior to the cruise at home but don't have antigens yet

5) Exposure during port stops

 

Edited January 9, 2022 by jacob22

[julia]

Most probably:

6)  All of the above

[cruisestitch]

6) all of the above

[RichYak]

2 through 5.

[jacob22]

What would be most common? Are more of the passengers from his COVID areas, states with no mask mandates?

Edited January 9, 2022 by jacob22

[canderson]

25 minutes ago, jacob22 said:

What would be most common? Are more of the passengers from his COVID areas, states with no mask mandates?

At this point in time, if the statistics you originally asked about have even been compiled, only a FOIA to the CDC, which they may reply will take years to produce, will be the way to see them.

[davekathy]

...unvaccinated. 

[basenji56]

Here is a story.  My young friend told me that he was exposed to his brother who tested positive for covid on 1/1.  By 1/3, he told me that he had a sore throat.  I got him some home test strips.  He tested negative on 1/4, 1/5 and 1/6.  Finally, on 1/8, he tested positive.  But he had symptoms for five days before he tested positive.

 

Think of what that means for cruising.  There is no way to limit cases even if you test on the pier.

 

 

[nocl]

1 hour ago, jacob22 said:

I wonder if the CDC or anyone has compiled statistics about where are the positive COVID cases onboard ships are coming from?

 

Potential sources might be:

1) False negative antigen tests

2) Exposure while traveling to the cruise port

3) Crew members contracting it from the prior cruise

4) Passengers contract COVID in the days prior to the cruise at home but don't have antigens yet

5) Exposure during port stops

 

Probably not 1, since it seems that the cruise lines mostly retesting antigen positives with PCR to confirm.

[Homosassa]

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

At this point in time, if the statistics you originally asked about have even been compiled, only a FOIA to the CDC, which they may reply will take years to produce, will be the way to see them.

WRONG!!!

 

There is a regulatory timeframe to reply to FOIA (twenty business days from time of receipt).

 

The reply may be that there is no such readily compiled data to release or any information (redacted) that is available will be sent.

[Quarantined]

The incubation period is 2-14 days, with 5-7 the most common, so how would anyone know for sure? I tested positive and is in isolation right now, but there is really no way to determine the point of contraction with any certainty for cases being discovered during the first week or so of a cruise. 

[Arizona Wildcat]

The only number from the CDC is the number of cases on board ships.  Published every 2 weeks.  The were 5013 cases reported from December  15th to the 29th.  That was up by a huge multiple from the prior 2 weeks.  The number was reported on a couple of websites.  Should have an updated number late this week.

I could not find a breakdown between passengers and crew, but appears to be mostly crew with the reports of evacuating crew on Royal to other ships and repeated comments about crew changes during a cruise.

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, Homosassa said:

WRONG!!!

 

There is a regulatory timeframe to reply to FOIA (twenty business days from time of receipt).

 

The reply may be that there is no such readily compiled data to release or any information (redacted) that is available will be sent.

RIGHT!!!

 

Yes, they are required to reply in some fashion, but not necessarily with the requested data, which was my point.  I was very specific with my wording.  "...which they may reply will take years to produce..."  I didn't say the reply would take years, but rather, the production of any useful data very well might.

 

Ask the researchers at Yale, Harvard, UCLA and Brown how long the CDC plans to take to produce redacted information for their requests from the CDC for information.  (sarc) I believe there's been a 'bit' of press on that lately (/sarc).  If the CDC can say that they're prepared to stall them for 55 years for vaccine data, I don't think you or I have much of a shot at getting an improved response on cruise-specific data.  https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/wait-what-fda-wants-55-years-process-foia-request-over-vaccine-data-2021-11-18/

 

A lot of people who have an interest in cruising would like to have an opportunity to see answers to the kinds of questions the OP is asking in order to make personal decisions.  We really don't know where the highest risk factors for onboard infection are with omicron.  We can all guess, but data would be preferred.  Passengers who have been particularly careful (e.g., mostly staying in cabins and avoiding sharing elevators with anyone) are still testing positive in spite of their best efforts.  Further, we don't know which mitigation strategies are the most helpful such that we could concentrate even more on those as passengers.  Back when we last cruised in November, we thought we had a decent handle on how to best avoid infection aboard ship.  With omicron's unique ability to move from person to person, we wouldn't have a clue now, and probably wouldn't consider a cruise for a booking much before April.

 

 

[canderson]

24 minutes ago, Quarantined said:

The incubation period is 2-14 days, with 5-7 the most common, so how would anyone know for sure? I tested positive and is in isolation right now, but there is really no way to determine the point of contraction with any certainty for cases being discovered during the first week or so of a cruise. 

Careful, 'Quarantined'...  You're about to arrive at a conclusion about the testing protocols themselves that no one is going to want to hear! 🙃

 

[Fouremco]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

RIGHT!!!

 

Yes, they are required to reply in some fashion, but not necessarily with the requested data, which was my point.  I was very specific with my wording.  "...which they may reply will take years to produce..."  I didn't say the reply would take years, but rather, the production of any useful data very well might.

 

Ask the researchers at Yale, Harvard, UCLA and Brown how long the CDC plans to take to produce redacted information for their requests from the CDC for information.  (sarc) I believe there's been a 'bit' of press on that lately (/sarc).  If the CDC can say that they're prepared to stall them for 55 years for vaccine data, I don't think you or I have much of a shot at getting an improved response on cruise-specific data.  https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/wait-what-fda-wants-55-years-process-foia-request-over-vaccine-data-2021-11-18/

 

A lot of people who have an interest in cruising would like to have an opportunity to see answers to the kinds of questions the OP is asking in order to make personal decisions.  We really don't know where the highest risk factors for onboard infection are with omicron.  We can all guess, but data would be preferred.  Passengers who have been particularly careful (e.g., mostly staying in cabins and avoiding sharing elevators with anyone) are still testing positive in spite of their best efforts.  Further, we don't know which mitigation strategies are the most helpful such that we could concentrate even more on those as passengers.  Back when we last cruised in November, we thought we had a decent handle on how to best avoid infection aboard ship.  With omicron's unique ability to move from person to person, we wouldn't have a clue now, and probably wouldn't consider a cruise for a booking much before April.

 

 

And just to show that the US system is probably not much different than others, here's a story from a couple of days ago about a Canadian national archives attempt to get an 80 year extension!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/man-seeking-rcmp-files-goes-to-court-after-national-archives-takes-80-year-extension-1.5729643

[gold1953]

1 hour ago, davekathy said:

...unvaccinated. 

nope, just as many vaccinated are getting and spreading omicron. Contact tracing is done where I live

[Arizona Wildcat]

35 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

And just to show that the US system is probably not much different than others, here's a story from a couple of days ago about a Canadian national archives attempt to get an 80 year extension!

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/man-seeking-rcmp-files-goes-to-court-after-national-archives-takes-80-year-extension-1.5729643

The only thing the CDC said was Covid on all 92 cruises with a US port and the total number of cases.  Should have a new number by Tuesday.  Am thinking the cruiselines don't want ship specific data as not good for business.  The crew numbers apparently are high.  

[Arizona Wildcat]

Just now, gold1953 said:

nope, just as many vaccinated are getting and spreading omicron. Contact tracing is done where I live

BC and Ontario cannot possibly do contact tracing.   Too many cases.  Canada is rapidly heading toward 50K+ a day.  Agree unvaccinated are a huge majority of those hospitalized. 

[jelayne]

Here we go again.

[nocl]

2 hours ago, Homosassa said:

WRONG!!!

 

There is a regulatory timeframe to reply to FOIA (twenty business days from time of receipt).

 

The reply may be that there is no such readily compiled data to release or any information (redacted) that is available will be sent.

Or it could be the amount of the cost to compile the data if it will consume over 2 hours of time or if over 100 pages need to be copied

[cruisestitch]

Using myself as an example, I left my home city seven days ago, flew to Fort Lauderdale, spent the night in a hotel, boarded the ship on Tuesday. If I were to come down with symptoms, how could I possibly know where I was exposed?  The Uber driver? The airport? The plane? Baggage claim? Hotel? Shuttle to the ship? Terminal 25?  But wait. If the incubation could be as much as 14 days and what about the grocery store back home? The CVS  where I got tested?  The mind boggles with all the possibilities.

[JL87]

Almost no way to contact trace with omicron. Well, you may be able to do it a bit looking forward but not backward. Too infectious. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by JL87

[nocl]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

RIGHT!!!

 

Yes, they are required to reply in some fashion, but not necessarily with the requested data, which was my point.  I was very specific with my wording.  "...which they may reply will take years to produce..."  I didn't say the reply would take years, but rather, the production of any useful data very well might.

 

Ask the researchers at Yale, Harvard, UCLA and Brown how long the CDC plans to take to produce redacted information for their requests from the CDC for information.  (sarc) I believe there's been a 'bit' of press on that lately (/sarc).  If the CDC can say that they're prepared to stall them for 55 years for vaccine data, I don't think you or I have much of a shot at getting an improved response on cruise-specific data.  https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/wait-what-fda-wants-55-years-process-foia-request-over-vaccine-data-2021-11-18/

 

A lot of people who have an interest in cruising would like to have an opportunity to see answers to the kinds of questions the OP is asking in order to make personal decisions.  We really don't know where the highest risk factors for onboard infection are with omicron.  We can all guess, but data would be preferred.  Passengers who have been particularly careful (e.g., mostly staying in cabins and avoiding sharing elevators with anyone) are still testing positive in spite of their best efforts.  Further, we don't know which mitigation strategies are the most helpful such that we could concentrate even more on those as passengers.  Back when we last cruised in November, we thought we had a decent handle on how to best avoid infection aboard ship.  With omicron's unique ability to move from person to person, we wouldn't have a clue now, and probably wouldn't consider a cruise for a booking much before April.

 

 

Quite a bit of difference in this case.  Considering that  the records they are requesting in the case of the vaccines are  extremely large.  If one printed all of the information in an  NDA for something like the vaccines would probably fill multiple semi-trailers.  I filled one with a relative small oncology product.  Just the clinical records alone for a 30,000 person phase 3 trial will be huge.  

 

There are 9 different categories for data that will be excluded.

 

Exemption One: Classified national defense and foreign relations information.
Exemption Two: Internal agency personnel rules and practices.
Exemption Three: Information that is prohibited from disclosure by another federal law.
Exemption Four: Trade secrets and commercial or financial information obtained from a person that is privileged or confidential.
Exemption Five: Inter-agency or intra-agency memoranda or letters that are protected by legal privileges.
Exemption Six: Personnel, medical, financial, and similar files the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.
Exemption Seven: Certain types of information compiled for law enforcement purposes.
Exemption Eight: Records that are contained in or related to examination, operating, or condition reports prepared by, on behalf of, or for the use of any agency responsible for the regulation or supervision of financial institutions.
Exemption Nine: Geological and geophysical information and data, including maps, concerning wells. 

 

When dealing with product development and approval you can expect to have a lot of data redacted under exemption 4 and 6.  There may also be some portions under exemption 3.

 

Considering that filings include the product formulations, manufacturing and other information, competitors would be very happy to file an FOI on every NDA files, it would save them a lot of time in trying to develop a competing product.  So when you come to something like I seem to recall that there are some protections related to patent lifetime as well.

 

As far as the CDC goes I expect that the media is waiting until the wave is over so they can report on a good section of time.  The Miami Herald wrote their last coverage of cases on board in the fall of 2020, when they reported the number of cases that had occurred on cruise, including those on ships that were crew on after the shutdown.  I expect that they will wait and see if it is worth reporting about this time.

 

While I do not expect any problems getting total numbers by ship, by some period, going in any more detail may fall under exemption 4 trade secrets. Since company procedures can be redacted. 

 

I do know that when some information related to a company is requested, the agency will often contact that company and give them an opportunity to identify any data that the company feels fits into one of the exemption and request that the data be redacted.  The agency might not agree and sometimes a legal case will result.

Edited January 10, 2022 by nocl

[nocl]

9 minutes ago, cruisestitch said:

Using myself as an example, I left my home city seven days ago, flew to Fort Lauderdale, spent the night in a hotel, boarded the ship on Tuesday. If I were to come down with symptoms, how could I possibly know where I was exposed?  The Uber driver? The airport? The plane? Baggage claim? Hotel? Shuttle to the ship? Terminal 25?  But wait. If the incubation could be as much as 14 days and what about the grocery store back home? The CVS  where I got tested?  The mind boggles with all the possibilities.

With Omicron most likely 2-7 days, mostly at the short end.

[Arizona Wildcat]

4 minutes ago, cruisestitch said:

Using myself as an example, I left my home city seven days ago, flew to Fort Lauderdale, spent the night in a hotel, boarded the ship on Tuesday. If I were to come down with symptoms, how could I possibly know where I was exposed?  The Uber driver? The airport? The plane? Baggage claim? Hotel? Shuttle to the ship? Terminal 25?  But wait. If the incubation could be as much as 14 days and what about the grocery store back home? The CVS  where I got tested?  The mind boggles with all the possibilities.

Agree.  Absolutely impossible to contact trace for most of us.  All we know is ones tests positive after about two days from infection.  Have never heard of someone testing negative 14 days after infection.  Obviously there is ongoing crew infection from the CDC numbers.