Carnival Corporation Axing Three Ships

[molecrochip]

1 hour ago, showingdiva said:

The three names that keep cropping up on the speculation list across the web are Costa Magica, Costa Fortuna and AIDAaura

That is my understanding. All by Spring 2024.

 

I expect Elation and Paradise to be the first CCL ships to go as the rest of the class now has however they have been kept to serve smaller American ports. As numbers recover, Carnival Jubilee and the Costa ships join CCL, this probable sees them go but that could be 2025 onwards. Carnival Sunshine had a load of upgrades in 2013 when she was converted from Carnival Destiny so will likely hang on longer.

 

POAU will probably exit Explorer as soon as Princess are ready to free up a Grand class ship to replace her. That is likely to be once Sun princess and Sphere 2 join the fleet in 2024 and 2025. Whether that also frees up a second Grand / Royal class ship to transfer to P&O UK remains to be seen. If it does, whether Aurora/Arcadia stay will depend on demand from the UK market.

[jaydee6969]

2 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

Bergen is one notable port that cannot be reached by the larger ships but Britannia can get there. It is not only size but the number of passengers the ports are able to accomodate that will prevent berthing at many ports.

 

 

Not impossible for the 'larger' ships to visit Bergen, Iona did visit Bergen this year as a one off due to storms in the North Sea.  Needed to coordinate with the tides.  You also commented on that particular thread.

[molecrochip]

23 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

That is my understanding. All by Spring 2024.

 

I expect Elation and Paradise to be the first CCL ships to go as the rest of the class now has however they have been kept to serve smaller American ports. As numbers recover, Carnival Jubilee and the Costa ships join CCL, this probable sees them go but that could be 2025 onwards. Carnival Sunshine had a load of upgrades in 2013 when she was converted from Carnival Destiny so will likely hang on longer.

 

POAU will probably exit Explorer as soon as Princess are ready to free up a Grand class ship to replace her. That is likely to be once Sun princess and Sphere 2 join the fleet in 2024 and 2025. Whether that also frees up a second Grand / Royal class ship to transfer to P&O UK remains to be seen. If it does, whether Aurora/Arcadia stay will depend on demand from the UK market.

Also re Costa... they are being resized for the European Market as the new joint venture with the Chinese State owned shipbuilder will generate its own brand with two new ships and two ex-Costa ships (already transferred). I expect that over time, we will see more Costa by Carnival and then just Carnival.

 

As someone commented on the CCL thread, Costa has lost massive market share since the Concordia incident. Also people now want 4*+ cruising not 3*. This is all true. I also agree that Costa has been blindsided by MSC. I suspect that Costa as a separate brand wont operate in 2030 but that Carnival will have a bigger European presence. It also give Princess the opportunity to increase European presence.

[tring]

44 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

That is my understanding. All by Spring 2024.

 

I expect Elation and Paradise to be the first CCL ships to go as the rest of the class now has however they have been kept to serve smaller American ports. As numbers recover, Carnival Jubilee and the Costa ships join CCL, this probable sees them go but that could be 2025 onwards. Carnival Sunshine had a load of upgrades in 2013 when she was converted from Carnival Destiny so will likely hang on longer.

 

POAU will probably exit Explorer as soon as Princess are ready to free up a Grand class ship to replace her. That is likely to be once Sun princess and Sphere 2 join the fleet in 2024 and 2025. Whether that also frees up a second Grand / Royal class ship to transfer to P&O UK remains to be seen. If it does, whether Aurora/Arcadia stay will depend on demand from the UK market.

 

When I started this thread yesterday I was hoping you may chip in.  Your insight is much appreciated.

 

Barbara

 

[Snow Hill]

10 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

Bergen is one notable port that cannot be reached by the larger ships but Britannia can get there. It is not only size but the number of passengers the ports are able to accomodate that will prevent berthing at many ports.

 

The Norwegians also looking to restrict access to many of the fjords, likelihood that the mega ships will be restricted on the ports they can visit in coming years. Also the likes of Palma, Marseilles, Barcelona, Dubrovnik and of course Venice have taken or will be taking steps to reduce numbers of cruise ship visits and those ports where tendering is only option are like not to be viable option for these blocks of flats on keels. 

[jh1809]

As it's the season for carols:

 

"I saw three ships go sailing by..." But a couple of years later I didn't, as Carnival had axed them all.

[Megabear2]

11 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Also people now want 4*+ cruising not 3*. This is all true.

Are you listening P&O???

[molecrochip]

3 hours ago, Megabear2 said:

Are you listening P&O???

Expect to hear about a program of guest service and general customer experience improvements in 2023 - the feedback has been noted.

 

It’s already in development, was recently announced to staff at HQ but I don’t know the exact timescale.

[bobstheboy]

24 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Expect to hear about a program of guest service and general customer experience improvements in 2023 - the feedback has been noted.

 

It’s already in development, was recently announced to staff at HQ but I don’t know the exact timescale.

Good to hear. We don't need to return to too many black tie nights, but maintaining a reasonable standard is needed. Also I think the drinks package should looked at. It is nowhere near the value that MSC and Princess give.

[Yorkypete]

Whilst the situation does not look good, Carnival selling/scrapping 3 ships, it may be even worse.Carnival have just announced figures which show they have lost $1.6 billion this year. The total debt has now grown to $36 billion to date. Also they have only 5 new ships ordered in the next 10 years whilst such as RC have some 10 on order for the next 5 years. Carnival have sold/scrapped 18% of their fleet in the last 3 years. Not a good look for the future of their 9 brands.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Yorkypete

[Snow Hill]

3 hours ago, bobstheboy said:

Good to hear. We don't need to return to too many black tie nights, but maintaining a reasonable standard is needed. Also I think the drinks package should looked at. It is nowhere near the value that MSC and Princess give.

One a week is enough, don’t see the need for black tie night on short 3 or 4 day cruises. As the for the drinks package, I would like to see a per cabin option as we have found the per person option too expensive for our needs, 

[SteveH2508]

43 minutes ago, Snow Hill said:

One a week is enough, don’t see the need for black tie night on short 3 or 4 day cruises. As the for the drinks package, I would like to see a per cabin option as we have found the per person option too expensive for our needs, 

I definitely agree that the drinks package needs a re-think. If the restrictions on included drinks was less restrictive, they might get away with the usurious £39.95 pppd price. Currently it is not value and, all other things being equal, it is a deal breaker.

[carlanthony24]

1 hour ago, Snow Hill said:

One a week is enough, don’t see the need for black tie night on short 3 or 4 day cruises. As the for the drinks package, I would like to see a per cabin option as we have found the per person option too expensive for our needs, 

The short cruises are more for first timers so they can see what it’s like etc. One a week does sound better though 

[wowzz]

4 hours ago, Yorkypete said:

Carnival have sold/scrapped 18% of their fleet in the last 3 years

Too late at night to do the maths, but have Carnival actually reduced their passenger occupancy by 18% ?

[Yorkypete]

35 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Too late at night to do the maths, but have Carnival actually reduced their passenger occupancy by 18% ?

I don't know as passenger figures were not quoted, only the number of ships ending their cruising days...13 in the last 3 years. 

[terrierjohn]

25 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Too late at night to do the maths, but have Carnival actually reduced their passenger occupancy by 18% ?

You dont need maths, all the new ships have been 3600 lower berths up to 5200 lower berths, with 8 excel class, 3 Royal class plus 1 each for HAL and Cunard at nearly 2969 lower berths., all since late 2019.  That's 13 new ships with probably more capacity than the 18 they have shed, probably with an overall higher operating profit of about 25%.

But with the current economic downturn it is going to take time to push the operating profit up to pre covid levels.

[wowzz]

2 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

I don't know as passenger figures were not quoted, only the number of ships ending their cruising days...13 in the last 3 years. 

I think you'll find that the number of berths is now higher than it was three years ago. The older,  smaller uneconomic ships have gone, so the current fleet is now more profitable. 

The issue now is the interest on the debt incurred during Covid.

[Host Sharon]

On 12/23/2022 at 11:59 AM, jeanlyon said:

I noticed that Fred has got rid of the Braemar which was a lovely ship.  They now have Borealis and Bolette.

and Balmoral

[Yorkypete]

23 hours ago, wowzz said:

I think you'll find that the number of berths is now higher than it was three years ago. The older,  smaller uneconomic ships have gone, so the current fleet is now more profitable. 

The issue now is the interest on the debt incurred during Covid.

I dont think the loss was just during covid as they have lost $1.6 billion in the last quarter.

[Yorkypete]

On 12/24/2022 at 11:40 PM, terrierjohn said:

You dont need maths, all the new ships have been 3600 lower berths up to 5200 lower berths, with 8 excel class, 3 Royal class plus 1 each for HAL and Cunard at nearly 2969 lower berths., all since late 2019.  That's 13 new ships with probably more capacity than the 18 they have shed, probably with an overall higher operating profit of about 25%.

But with the current economic downturn it is going to take time to push the operating profit up to pre covid levels.

Looking at the list of 'new' ships it appears that most are not really new. They are from the Costa line and/or refurbishments which involved name changes.  Without extensive reasearch I don't believe that the berths have increased with 13 'new' ships  and 18 disgarded. With having so many in their 9 lines it is difficult to check all berth numbers and is probably  wasting too much time in doing so.  We will have to wait and see how they cope in 2023.

 

[wowzz]

15 minutes ago, Yorkypete said:

They are from the Costa line and/or refurbishments which involved name changes. 

No, that is wrong.

John is talking about new ships, not inter-line changes. 

[molecrochip]

Back in 2019, the plan had been for 2020-2024 capacity to increase by about 20% based on demand models. This was based on new ships brining 30%+ new capacity plus a few smaller ships leaving the fleet and reducing capacity by circa 10%.
 

Covid hit, the result… new total demand forecasts now suggest 2%-5%. This gave Carnival a problem and an opportunity.

 

Cancelling new builds wasn’t the answer. The big boys were under political pressure to go greener. Some steps could be taken with larger ships but small ships didn’t have the space to accommodate the equipment.
 

A sudden buoyant market opened up for second hand ships with smaller operators keen to upgrade and Carnival keen to offload smaller, dirtier, less profitable ships. With these three disposals, Carnival are up to 22 disposals in three years. Some of these would have happened naturally but likely only 6-7.

 

Carnival had a fleet of about 105 ships, were due to have a fleet of circa 120 ships by 2024 but will end up with around 100. However their capacity will still be around 5% higher.

 

As a business, the smaller, newer, greener fleet has lower maintenance and operating costs. New build ship costs are spread over their life therefore don’t impact profit as much as you’d expect.

 

There is another side to this discussion and that’s internal movements.

CCL has seen a quick recovery due to its domestic US focus. Costa has struggled due to the rise of MSC in Europe and the prolonged closure of the China market. Therefore ship transfers are logical. What were to be temporary transfers look like becoming permanent as they are now formally being renamed.

 

Princess has struggled outside of US & U.K. but they’ve been assisted by two of their ships transferring to P&O Australia. Holland America had lost four smaller ships in place of one new ship therefore could ride the recovery.

 

Aida is a very holiday club style operation but has rebounded well for the domestic German market. Seabourn and Cunard have higher price points so could weather a slower recovery. Both were due new ships late enough in the recovery curved to not need disposals.

 

This leaves P&O UK. I believe, as we enter 2023, that the fleet is the size it was always intended to be. I’ve said for some time, I expected Oceana to leave the fleet after Arvia’s arrival. Arvia was originally due May 2022, so that suggested Oceana gone by now. For me, there was an outside hope of her going adults only but only if overall demand kept rocketing.

 

Of course, the ultimate hope for the business is demand increases quicker than expected. This pushes prices up as more people want the same fixed number of cabins.

 

As to the future… ships will continue to leave as part of natural evolution of cruise ships. Generally 30 years is the estimated plan. With nothing in the order books past 2026, Carnival will be hoping for government support to incentivise/reduce the cost of shipbuilding. The bank rate movements across the world won’t help with that however what impact that has on the Italian & German export finance markets is unclear.

 

The next big move is to see if Princess has excess capacity post their two new Sphere class ships. Will this give the P&Os a Grand or Royal class ship, will this mark the end of Aurora or Arcadia, or has Covid given them a lease of life into the 2030s?

Edited December 26, 2022 by molecrochip

[bobstheboy]

Many thanks for the update. There is a ship for everyone and like many on here cruising is our number one holiday. 

 

I just hope that Iona and Arvia don't become party ships, but the market will dictate changes onboard I suspect.

[tring]

25 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Back in 2019, the plan had been for 2020-2024 capacity to increase by about 20% based on demand models. This was based on new ships brining 30%+ new capacity plus a few smaller ships leaving the fleet and reducing capacity by circa 10%.
 

Covid hit, the result… new total demand forecasts now suggest 2%-5%. This gave Carnival a problem and an opportunity.

 

Cancelling new builds wasn’t the answer. The big boys were under political pressure to go greener. Some steps could be taken with larger ships but small ships didn’t have the space to accommodate the equipment.
 

A sudden buoyant market opened up for second hand ships with smaller operators keen to upgrade and Carnival keen to offload smaller, dirtier, less profitable ships. With these three disposals, Carnival are up to 22 disposals in three years. Some of these would have happened naturally but likely only 6-7.

 

Carnival had a fleet of about 105 ships, were due to have a fleet of circa 120 ships by 2024 but will end up with around 100. However their capacity will still be around 5% higher.

 

As a business, the smaller, newer, greener fleet has lower maintenance and operating costs. New build ship costs are spread over their life therefore don’t impact profit as much as you’d expect.

 

There is another side to this discussion and that’s internal movements.

CCL has seen a quick recovery due to its domestic US focus. Costa has struggled due to the rise of MSC in Europe and the prolonged closure of the China market. Therefore ship transfers are logical. What were to be temporary transfers look like becoming permanent as they are now formally being renamed.

 

Princess has struggled outside of US & U.K. but they’ve been assisted by two of their ships transferring to P&O Australia. Holland America had lost four smaller ships in place of one new ship therefore could ride the recovery.

 

Aida is a very holiday club style operation but has rebounded well for the domestic German market. Seabourn and Cunard have higher price points so could weather a slower recovery. Both were due new ships late enough in the recovery curved to not need disposals.

 

This leaves P&O UK. I believe, as we enter 2023, that the fleet is the size it was always intended to be. I’ve said for some time, I expected Oceana to leave the fleet after Arvia’s arrival. Arvia was originally due May 2022, so that suggested Oceana gone by now. For me, there was an outside hope of her going adults only but only if overall demand kept rocketing.

 

Of course, the ultimate hope for the business is demand increases quicker than expected. This pushes prices up as more people want the same fixed number of cabins.

 

As to the future… ships will continue to leave as part of natural evolution of cruise ships. Generally 30 years is the estimated plan. With nothing in the order books past 2026, Carnival will be hoping for government support to incentivise/reduce the cost of shipbuilding. The bank rate movements across the world won’t help with that however what impact that has on the Italian & German export finance markets is unclear.

 

The next big move is to see if Princess has excess capacity post their two new Sphere class ships. Will this give the P&Os a Grand or Royal class ship, will this mark the end of Aurora or Arcadia, or has Covid given them a lease of life into the 2030s?

 

If effectively Aurora/Arcadia are replaced with a Grand or Royal class ship, would that be the end of the World cruises and other longer duration cruises, including the N American Eastern Seaboard and up The St Lawrence itinerary, or would all that type of cruise be covered by the bigger ship?  I do realise that a bigger ship on those itineraries will reduce the available ports anyway. 

 

We have already noticed the lack of a port on the 24/25 Caribbean and US/Caribbean itineraries, (i.e. Aruba and Key West respectively), presumably because of cutbacks/fuel economy as Ventura is doing both the newer and previous year's versions of those itineraries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by tring

[molecrochip]

8 minutes ago, tring said:

 

If effectively Aurora/Arcadia are replaced with a Grand or Royal class ship, would that be the end of the World cruises and other longer duration cruises, including the N American Eastern Seaboard and up The St Lawrence itinerary, or would all that type of cruise be covered by the bigger ship?  I do realise that a bigger ship on those itineraries will reduce the available ports anyway. 

 

We have already noticed the lack of a port on the 24/25 Caribbean and US/Caribbean itineraries, (i.e. Aruba and Key West respectively), presumably because of cutbacks/fuel economy as Ventura is doing both the newer and previous year's versions of those itineraries.

I don’t believe that either of those are missing because of cutbacks/fuel economy or being too big.

 

A problem for the next two/three years is port availability of LNG. Once resolved some of the restrictions, such as Iona and Arvia having to cross the Atlantic via Tenerife will be resolved. The Tenerife route is also linger therefore slower therefore less port days.