Has CCL turned a corner?

[LocoLoco1]

Maybe Carnival has smoother waters ahead? Corporate announcements of far fewer new vessels and adding many on-board upcharges seems to be the future. 

[Sir PMP]

Wait and see.

[REOVA]

Unfortunately confidence and stock price has nothing to do with how a corporation is doing anymore. 🙄 

 

They can raise prices, and some people may pay it, but the if the food and service experience is not better, the "demand for its services" won't be strong. 

[mcrcruiser]

The entire stock market imo will go down . I really don't think that cruising will be at the top of peoples  lists  in a recession  .I am definitely bearish on CCL stock 

[Mary229]

Stock prices are not always based in reality and have  no significant impact on the company balance sheet

[FlaMariner]

Anecdotal:

 

Our TA we emailed Thursday had a response come back something like "I am swamped with wave season quote requests and I will get to them but the response will be delayed".

 

I've never seen that from her and take that as a positive sign for cruising.....Anecdotally speaking. 

[Mary229]

1 minute ago, FlaMariner said:

Anecdotal:

 

Our TA we emailed Thursday had a response come back something like "I am swamped with wave season quote requests and I will get to them but the response will be delayed".

 

I've never seen that from her and take that as a positive sign for cruising.....Anecdotally speaking. 

This is what my agency reports as well

[HappyInVan]

7 hours ago, FlaMariner said:

Anecdotal:

 

Our TA we emailed Thursday had a response come back something like "I am swamped with wave season quote requests and I will get to them but the response will be delayed".

 

 

Possibly because they're heavily promoting HIA etc.

 

Is the wave sustainable? My guess is that people are currently paying for HIA because cruise fare is low. Once cruise fares rise, same people may not opt for HIA. 

 

The key is the perception of value. Cruise fares have to rise because of high inflation. However, the paying customer has the final word.

 

I've noticed that HAL has raised the prices in the Mediterranean for this summer. However, it remains to be seen if HAL can stand up to the competition from MSC (deep pockets) etc.

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by HappyInVan

[sfaaa]

I believe so. I recently cancelled a Carnival cruise and received my refund within 2 weeks - an indication cash flow is not an issue.

[LocoLoco1]

Basic $fares$ are probably money losers. Club Orange, HIA, Cabana rental upcharges etc will be the future corporate profitmakers methinks. 

[mcrcruiser]

Although   TAs are busy booking during wave season .It still remains how many of those bookings reach final payment    Liking to the new car sales carrying a  average $1000 per month payments . Now those deals are starting to fall apart   .That can happen to cruise bookings if prices go to high  & a percent will cancel

[HALcruiser2001]

2 hours ago, sfaaa said:

I believe so. I recently cancelled a Carnival cruise and received my refund within 2 weeks - an indication cash flow is not an issue.

I think that it is more indicative that they kept your refund amount in the bank vs spending it.

[Colorado Klutch]

- Stock price is a HUGE part of a corporate balance sheet. High stock prices allow a cruise company to build ships, renovate ships and innovate. Low stock prices force cutbacks and downsizing

 

- There just no telling what the stock market will do. Anyone who says they can predict it is delusional. There are always people who always predict economic doom and gloom. Eventually, something bad happens and they say, "See, I warned you!". Yeah, nice try, but no. You predicted nothing.

 

- People who go on cruises tend to be financially stable. I mean no disrespect to people who live paycheck to paycheck, but those are the people most affected by inflation and those people don't book cruises

 

- Carnival is a giant corporation with a revenue just shy of $2 billion last year. No, they're not worried about refunding a few bookings. 🙂

 

 

[Hlitner]

15 minutes ago, Colorado Klutch said:

- Stock price is a HUGE part of a corporate balance sheet. High stock prices allow a cruise company to build ships, renovate ships and innovate. Low stock prices force cutbacks and downsizing

 

- There just no telling what the stock market will do. Anyone who says they can predict it is delusional. There are always people who always predict economic doom and gloom. Eventually, something bad happens and they say, "See, I warned you!". Yeah, nice try, but no. You predicted nothing.

 

- People who go on cruises tend to be financially stable. I mean no disrespect to people who live paycheck to paycheck, but those are the people most affected by inflation and those people don't book cruises

 

- Carnival is a giant corporation with a revenue just shy of $2 billion last year. No, they're not worried about refunding a few bookings. 🙂

 

 

You might consider that CCL stock is trading at less than 20% of its price from before COVID.  The company also has debt obligations of around $30 Billion which is more than 3 times the debt they carried pre-covid.  Their debt-equity ratio is currently over 4.5 when historically it was under 0.5!  Many investors consider a debt-equity ratio of 2 or more to be a very bad situation.  

 

The markets reacted favorably to announced price increases, but whether the various cruise lines can maintain sales at significantly higher prices is a big question.  As you say, there is no telling what the stock market will do.  But these financial numbers are not good, and with interest rates on the rise this company has really dug itself into a deep hole.  

ill

Looking at future new builds (through 2027)  I see nothing on the horizon for HAL.  CCL has some new ships on order, but they are for other cruise lines (Princess, Seabourn and Carnival).  

 

Hank

[REOVA]

4 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

You might consider that CCL stock is trading at less than 20% of its price from before COVID.  The company also has debt obligations of around $30 Billion which is more than 3 times the debt they carried pre-covid.  Their debt-equity ratio is currently over 4.5 when historically it was under 0.5!  Many investors consider a debt-equity ratio of 2 or more to be a very bad situation.  

 

The markets reacted favorably to announced price increases, but whether the various cruise lines can maintain sales at significantly higher prices is a big question.

 

Hank

The cruise stock market will react lower shortly when the fanfare dies down. All it takes these days is for someone to make a statement and "investors" bounce (either way). The reactions now are not always based on P/E, profit, or other old benchmarks. Even if you lose millions, but less than what people thought, your stock will go up. And hedging plays into pricing as well. We will see 1 year from now if there is any difference in price. Just hope HALs "long" itinerary marketing is not blown by management cut backs and mishandling (again). 

[Hlitner]

23 minutes ago, REOVA said:

The cruise stock market will react lower shortly when the fanfare dies down. All it takes these days is for someone to make a statement and "investors" bounce (either way). The reactions now are not always based on P/E, profit, or other old benchmarks. Even if you lose millions, but less than what people thought, your stock will go up. And hedging plays into pricing as well. We will see 1 year from now if there is any difference in price. Just hope HALs "long" itinerary marketing is not blown by management cut backs and mishandling (again). 

We really do want to see HAL concentrate on long itineraries.  It is still the one thing (itinerary) that attracts us to HAL.  This morning, while sitting on our balcony in Puerto Vallarta, we watched the Oceania Insignia cruise into our port.  That ship is one its world cruise (over 180 days long) which we had heard was completely sold-out.  That is one of the old "R" ships (about 30,000 tons and 700 passengers) which is the type of ship that once attracted us to HAL.  We almost cried when HAL ditched its one small ship (Prinsendam).

 

Hank

[LocoLoco1]

CCL seems to have HAL placed (for now) somewhere between Hoi-toi and ho-hum. Sailing recently on a CUNARD  vessel told me my ideal would be the Prinsendam ambiance in a Koningsdam sized ship; and I’d pay $extra$ for it. As a loyal HAL cruiser I often imagine THAT for an Around the World. 

[RD64]

15 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Although   TAs are busy booking during wave season .It still remains how many of those bookings reach final payment    Liking to the new car sales carrying a  average $1000 per month payments . Now those deals are starting to fall apart   .That can happen to cruise bookings if prices go to high  & a percent will cancel

Well said!!!! It is like the $25 deposits HAL had last year, and the $1 deposits by Princess. Very easy to book multiple cruises that you may / may not have any intention of sailing. People will hold on to their reservations - watch for price drops - continue to get their price drops - then decide at the final payment date whether or not the price is low enough to proceed.

[RD64]

7 minutes ago, LocoLoco1 said:

CCL seems to have HAL placed (for now) somewhere between Hoi-toi and ho-hum. Sailing recently on a CUNARD  vessel told me my ideal would be the Prinsendam ambiance in a Koningsdam sized ship; and I’d pay $extra$ for it. As a loyal HAL cruiser I often imagine THAT for an Around the World. 

And therein lies the problem. Everybody (well maybe not everybody) wants all of the bells and whistles of the Koningsdam + the Prinsendam experience, but there are not enough people willing to pay the extra $$$$ to make this viable.

[REOVA]

46 minutes ago, LocoLoco1 said:

CCL seems to have HAL placed (for now) somewhere between Hoi-toi and ho-hum. Sailing recently on a CUNARD  vessel told me my ideal would be the Prinsendam ambiance in a Koningsdam sized ship; and I’d pay $extra$ for it. As a loyal HAL cruiser I often imagine THAT for an Around the World. 

Unfortunately a Pinnacle sized ship wouldn't get to many ports and tendering would be a nightmare.(I can imagine the ticket lines).  Prinsendam was good for SA and Zaandam would have been good to take over Amsterdam place for GWC, but HAL can pack a few hundred more passengers on Zuiderdam. 

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, REOVA said:

Unfortunately a Pinnacle sized ship wouldn't get to many ports and tendering would be a nightmare.(I can imagine the ticket lines).  Prinsendam was good for SA and Zaandam would have been good to take over Amsterdam place for GWC, but HAL can pack a few hundred more passengers on Zuiderdam. 

That assumes they maintain the current passenger cabin configurations.  If their bet on long, exotic, more expensive per diem voyages pans out they can afford to convert those rooms to more spacious suites.  

[LocoLoco1]

CCL seems to have HAL placed (for now) somewhere between Hoi-toi and ho-hum. Sailing recently on a CUNARD  vessel told me my ideal would be the Prinsendam ambiance in a Koningsdam sized ship; and I’d pay $extra$ for it. As a loyal HAL cruiser I often imagine THAT for an Around the World. 

[LocoLoco1]

HAL’s corporate press releases of late are rather clear: Onboard Up-charges and longer voyages will be a big part of their future. (Dare I call that ‘Cunard-lite’??) If Shorter cruises with bargain basement $prices$ are consigned to other brands in the family, perhaps they think a profit can be turned in both. Fine with me as I am usually a longer cruise Ports/ Destinations cruiser. I hope it all works out..

[Colorado Klutch]

Last November I was in Waikiki and met a very nice couple from Australia. They were staying in the same hotel before embarking on an island cruise. They were BIG TIME cruisers going back decades and I asked a lot of questions.

When I mentioned how I thought it would be great to cruise aboard the Queen Mary 2, they both scoffed and simultaneously said, "Stuffy!". It was obvious they didn't like Cunard and didn't recommend that line. They also described a strange cult of people with the most Cunard cruises being "First" and if they found out they wouldn't be first, they wouldn't book the cruise.

 

Not sure I understood all that, but it was fun talking with them. Based on their description, it sounds like Cunard would indeed be too stuffy for me, but I can understand why others would like that line. "Cunard-Lite" works for me. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Colorado Klutch

[LocoLoco1]

1 minute ago, Colorado Klutch said:

Last November I was in Waikiki and met a very nice couple from Australia. They were staying in the same hotel before embarking on an island cruise. They were BIG TIME cruisers going back decades and I asked a lot of questions.

When I mentioned how I thought it would be great to cruise aboard the Queen Mary 2, they both scoffed and simultaneously said, "Stuffy!". It was obvious they didn't like Cunard and didn't recommend that line. They also described a strange cult of people with the most Cunard cruises being "First" and if they found out they wouldn't be first, they wouldn't book the cruise.

 

Not sure I understood all that, but it was fun talking with them. 

I liked Cunard on two longer voyages and clicked with very fun bunch aboard ship. We had a modest Cabin yet the ‘Wow Factor’ onboard was everywhere. The live music, lectures, the food, the furnishings.. with a piano bar and a REAL Library etc. Next cruise was on HAL’s Maasdam. The difference was obvious.