CCL High Debt /what is Your Opinion

[mcrcruiser]

11 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Those things are interesting to you. I would never ask you to close a thread about the 'free' casino offers even though some find that topic offensive.

 

I find discussion of finances very interesting. Especially cruise financial discussions because we've never been here before. Ever.  My hobby is day trading. Making the right moves in the market have paid me quite lucratively and are what allowed me to retire in my early 50's with a significant travel budget. It's relevant for me.

 

And while I don't necessarily agree with @ldtr's assessment, I do respect his dedication to the topic. I like to hear the opposing views as it does help me to make more informed choices with not only where to invest money, but which cruise line to sail with. You may not appreciate financial chatter, but it's relevant to the forum. 

 

Can't we just live and let live? If you don't like the topic, ignore it. There are a dozen topics on the forum that I choose not to participate in. I certainly don't jump in those threads and make condescending comments or pass judgement on when a thread has run it's course. 

 

I do apologize if I offended anyone by bringing the "G" word into it. It was a matter of speech, but that was not very sensitive of me. Again, my apologies.

 

Thank you . es it is very important to understand the financial condition of Carnoval corp as it impacts directly all it's nrands & the people that ctuise those brands .Just today on CNN news July 3rd ,The empasis is on eiding interest rates & how thise rates will impact certain types & sizes of companies going into the 2nd half of 2023 

 

 Yes unfortunate that there are people on this board that have a  issue with this thread & come out & actuallu say it rather than not post .  We see them like the children they are so to speak get even at any cost LOL

 

  BTW ,I too  day trade & swing trade .Right now I find CCL near the very top of its range by the charts I read .I have other stocks making far greater returns right now , The market closes early today at 1PM NY time

Edited July 3, 2023 by mcrcruiser

[mcrcruiser]

12 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

https://time.com/personal-finance/article/historical-mortgage-rates/#:~:text=What were the highest mortgage,inflation following the OPEC embargo.

 

 

CCL ,RCL & Norwegian will all face tougher lending   standards going into this 2nd half to money  tighting for lending purposes. small & weak companies will find it very hard to get good loand at good rates . Banks & other lenders are in protection mode now .The days of low cost easy money are over  .You will see high   interest rates in the 2nd half of 2023 & unto 2024 . That will certainly hurt the cruise lines . They also hope for no recession  

Edited July 3, 2023 by mcrcruiser

[Haljo1935]

1 hour ago, LarsenPNP said:

But will I get that if I sail on Disney Cruise Line?  Asking for a friend....

 

But seriously, I have enjoyed the insight from BOTH perspectives. No, the thread should not be closed.

I don't have a "friend" sailing DCL, so far less interested in their status other than they are a player in the cruise industry; therefore, their health impacts CCL and ultimately my experience. And, no, the thread should not be closed. Don't think we're voting, but I cast mine anyway,🫢 lol.

[LarsenPNP]

5 minutes ago, Haljo1935 said:

I don't have a "friend" sailing DCL, so far less interested in their status other than they are a player in the cruise industry; therefore, their health impacts CCL and ultimately my experience. And, no, the thread should not be closed. Don't think we're voting, but I cast mine anyway,🫢 lol.

My first comment was not serious. I was joking (Disney movies last 90 minutes and end happily ever after 😉). Maybe I'm not as funny as I think I am!

 

My second comment was related to others that have not enjoyed reading the thread and suggested it be closed. You and I have casted our votes as 'nay' to closure in the imaginary voting poll.

[Haljo1935]

3 minutes ago, LarsenPNP said:

My first comment was not serious. I was joking (Disney movies last 90 minutes and end happily ever after 😉). Maybe I'm not as funny as I think I am!

You probably are - it's me, not you, I promise!! Lol 😆 🤣 

Now that I re-read it, I get the Disney comment. I'm so cruise focused right now, it went right over me as I went straight to Disney Cruises, lol. Classic case of one seeing what they want...

But I will not ever cruise Disney. If I win a Disney Cruise, I'll sell it and book HAL. And be able to buy HIA w/the extra $$ from the overpriced Disney profits, lol. 

[LarsenPNP]

1 minute ago, Haljo1935 said:

You probably are - it's me, not you, I promise!! Lol 😆 🤣 

Now that I re-read it, I get the Disney comment. I'm so cruise focused right now, it went right over me as I went straight to Disney Cruises, lol. Classic case of one seeing what they want...

But I will not ever cruise Disney. If I win a Disney Cruise, I'll sell it and book HAL. And be able to buy HIA w/the extra $$ from the overpriced Disney profits, lol. 

Agree 100% . I also do not want to cruise with that many children. I'm a Pediatric Nurse Practitioner, so I spend all day with kids.  Although I truly like kids, I want a vacation away from them 🙂

 

[cruisemom42]

2 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

CCL ,RCL & Norwegian will all face tougher lending   standards going into this 2nd half to money  tighting for lending purposes. small & weak companies will find it very hard to get good loand at good rates . Banks & other lenders are in protection mode now .The days of low cost easy money are over  .You will see high   interest rates in the 2nd half of 2023 & unto 2024 . That will certainly hurt the cruise lines . They also hope for no recession  

 

Not sure what your comment has to do with my response. I was providing you with a source for your comment about not recalling high interest rates in the early 1980s. 

 

[mcrcruiser]

3 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Not sure what your comment has to do with my response. I was providing you with a source for your comment about not recalling high interest rates in the early 1980s. 

 

Because our mortage was 6% back in 1967 ,at what you posted we had no recall for us . Apparently very few homes would sell for other than cash in those days of 18% , I was just oiting out that going forward  interest will be higher than now & availability of loans will go to stronger companies 

[jthek]

CCL up again today

[scooter6139]

Is this thread still going on? 

 

Has HAL or any other cruise line collapsed and I missed it?  

 

Never mind, I'll just enjoy my next cruise on Westerdam in August.  

 

Carry on.

[albingirl]

1 hour ago, scooter6139 said:

Is this thread still going on? 

 

Has HAL or any other cruise line collapsed and I missed it?  

 

Never mind, I'll just enjoy my next cruise on Westerdam in August.  

 

Carry on.

And carry on they will 

[mcrcruiser]

Every thing is a rest if time

[mcrcruiser]

2 hours ago, jthek said:

CCL up again today

  Could happen .Here is the Motley Fool's response :

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/3-stocks-that-can-double-again-in-the-second-half/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_c

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, scooter6139 said:

Is this thread still going on? 

 

Has HAL or any other cruise line collapsed and I missed it?  

 

Never mind, I'll just enjoy my next cruise on Westerdam in August.  

 

Carry on.

Vantage

[Ride-The-Waves]

On 7/2/2023 at 7:37 PM, mcrcruiser said:

We lived  through that era . Not certain of the decade any longer . Candidly I do not remember 18 %  interest rates in bans under Regan ,Please supply some  history info on that 18% 

As did we - stationed in San Diego '78-'83.  Bought a diesel Rabbit and added a 10-gal tank in the spare tire well.  Diesel was 19 cents/gal in Tijuana and we would fill up once every three weeks - the car would go well over 900 miles on its 20 gal.  Always best to fact check before you post.  Back in SD in April for a HAL Panama Canal transit.  Rented a Tesla 3 - gas prices $5.50-6.00 gal.  Ouch.  "Lost" our trusty 2013 SUV to flooding while parked in Fort Lauderdale during that cruise - totaled by insurance as water was over the door sills.  Have a hybrid on order - 50 mile electric range with all the newest safety options.

Edited July 4, 2023 by Ride-The-Waves

[cruisemom42]

19 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

Because our mortage was 6% back in 1967 ,at what you posted we had no recall for us . Apparently very few homes would sell for other than cash in those days of 18% , I was just oiting out that going forward  interest will be higher than now & availability of loans will go to stronger companies 

 

People have to buy houses. We bought our first one in the mid-80s when interest rates were still high. Only way we could do it was an adjustable rate mortgage -- which of course went upward annually. I recall paying about 14%. 

[mcrcruiser]

This  has gone far off the idea of the original topic . All we need to know is as the FED raises interest rates some time this year ,how those increases will impact CCL & it's ships & stock prices

[cruisemom42]

7 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

This  has gone far off the idea of the original topic . All we need to know is as the FED raises interest rates some time this year ,how those increases will impact CCL & it's ships & stock prices

 

You are the one who introduced the deviation. 🤣

[Ride-The-Waves]

27 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

This  has gone far off the idea of the original topic . All we need to know is as the FED raises interest rates some time this year ,how those increases will impact CCL & it's ships & stock prices

I think what you are seeing is that few, if any, care.  It is what it is.  At some point people will become more pragmatic and will not cruise with price above a certain point.  Cruise lines, especially ones in serious financial trouble, are struggling to price just below that level.  HAL offers a good product and will likely be able to stay afloat (pun intended).  That said, a HAL cruise advisor informed us that HAL does not have any new ships on order.  That is both a positive and a concern.  Positive is that it doesn't incur new expenditures and concern in that CCL may be readying to dispose of HAL.  

[BermudaBound2014]

15 hours ago, scooter6139 said:

Is this thread still going on? 

 

Has HAL or any other cruise line collapsed and I missed it?  

 

Never mind, I'll just enjoy my next cruise on Westerdam in August.  

 

Carry on.

 

Actually, 12 cruise lines have collapsed since the pandemic started. Most of them very small, but not all. Cruise & Maritime was the largest cruise line operating in the UK at the time of collapse. Crystal, windjammer, Pullmantur were all reasonably well known.

 

Vantage just filed for bankruptcy last week.

https://news.yahoo.com/luxury-cruise-lines-customers-could-212714156.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

 

 

 

 

Other cruise brands that have shut down over the past four years, almost all citing the financial effects of the pandemic, include luxury line Crystal Cruises and its two Asia-based sister brands, Dream Cruises and Star Cruises; Japan-based Venus Cruises;

India-based Jalesh Cruises; Swedish-based Birka Cruises; U.S.-based small-ship specialist Blount Small Ship Adventures; and U.K.-based Cruise & Maritime Voyages.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/vantage-deluxe-cruise-line-bankrupt/

 

 

 

With that, I personally don't believe that CCL is going to collapse anytime soon; as it's likely too big to fail. That does not mean that CCL won't decide to sell off specific ships/lines. We just don't know, but what we do know is that anything is possible.  Cruise lines have never carried 34 Billion dollars of debt before. 

 

IMO, anyone who believes HAL is completely safe just isn't crunching the same numbers I am. There are some positive things happening with HAL concentrating on it's Niche market, but the fact that HAL has zero cruise ships on the books speaks to me about CCL's commitment to HAL's future. Frankly, I don't believe any cruise line under the CCL umbrella is completely 'safe'; except perhaps Carnival which is the only line that has managed to fill it's ships consistently.

 

Enjoy Westerdam, I will  enjoy all three of the cruises I have upcoming, but I will do so informed of the financial struggles of the industry. That knowledge helps me keep my cruise expectations in perspective. 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[Guest ldtr]

20 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Actually, 12 cruise lines have collapsed since the pandemic started. Most of them very small, but not all. Cruise & Maritime was the largest cruise line operating in the UK at the time of collapse. Crystal, windjammer, Pullmantur were all reasonably well known.

 

Vantage just filed for bankruptcy last week.

https://news.yahoo.com/luxury-cruise-lines-customers-could-212714156.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

 

 

 

 

Other cruise brands that have shut down over the past four years, almost all citing the financial effects of the pandemic, include luxury line Crystal Cruises and its two Asia-based sister brands, Dream Cruises and Star Cruises; Japan-based Venus Cruises;

India-based Jalesh Cruises; Swedish-based Birka Cruises; U.S.-based small-ship specialist Blount Small Ship Adventures; and U.K.-based Cruise & Maritime Voyages.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/vantage-deluxe-cruise-line-bankrupt/

 

 

 

With that, I personally don't believe that CCL is going to collapse anytime soon; as it's likely too big to fail. That does not mean that CCL won't decide to sell off specific ships/lines. We just don't know, but what we do know is that anything is possible.  Cruise lines have never carried 34 Billion dollars of debt before. 

 

IMO, anyone who believes HAL is completely safe just isn't crunching the same numbers I am. There are some positive things happening with HAL concentrating on it's Niche market, but the fact that HAL has zero cruise ships on the books speaks to me about CCL's commitment to HAL's future. Frankly, I don't believe any cruise line under the CCL umbrella is completely 'safe'; except perhaps Carnival which is the only line that has managed to fill it's ships consistently.

 

Enjoy Westerdam, I will  enjoy all three of the cruises I have upcoming, but I will do so informed of the financial struggles of the industry. That knowledge helps me keep my cruise expectations in perspective. 

 

 

 

 

Some of us are crunching the number and draw different conclusions.  With limited capital to build new ships CCL and other cruise holding companies will do far better holding on to capacity (maximizing revenue) than they would to sell off capacity, and cut their max revenue. The money they would receive from such a sale, while could retire some debt, would not make up for the impact of much lower revenue in the minds of management or market analysts.

 

At 9% of CCL capacity HAL is too large to sell off. 

 

You will see a couple of ships age out, some movement of ships between brands, but that is about all.

 

That said Seabourne is unique in the CCL brands and is a luxury line. Premium and luxury is where new investment dollars are flowing these days. So that is the one spot where one might, low probability, see something happen. Low impact on capacity, might involve enough dollars. 

[BermudaBound2014]

18 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Some of us are crunching the number and draw different conclusions.  With limited capital to build new ships CCL and other cruise holding companies will do far better holding on to capacity (maximizing revenue) than they would to sell off capacity, and cut their max revenue. The money they would receive from such a sale, while could retire some debt, would not make up for the impact of much lower revenue in the minds of management or market analysts.

 

At 9% of CCL capacity HAL is too large to sell off. 

 

You will see a couple of ships age out, some movement of ships between brands, but that is about all.

 

That said Seabourne is unique in the CCL brands and is a luxury line. Premium and luxury is where new investment dollars are flowing these days. So that is the one spot where one might, low probability, see something happen. Low impact on capacity, might involve enough dollars. 

 

One does not have to look far in the market to find analysts with opposing views. That's what makes playing so interesting. 

 

The fact that HAL does not have any ships on deck happened long before covid. .  I don't believe there is a single cruise line that has actually ordered new ships since the pandemic so that's a null hypothesis.  The new build orders are a result of the companies direction pre-covid. 

 

Keep in mind, CCL was the only cruise line losing value in the market for the years preceding the pandemic (2018-2020).   And CCL has recovered the least post covid (not that market price should be the strongest indicator)

 

 

 

 

For some reason CCL restructured so that HAL and Seabourn are under the same umbrella leaving Princess all alone. We don't know the reason, but I would bet my farm it wasn't happenstance. 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[Guest ldtr]

37 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

One does not have to look far in the market to find analysts with opposing views. That's what makes playing so interesting. 

 

The fact that HAL does not have any ships on deck happened long before covid. .  I don't believe there is a single cruise line that has actually ordered new ships since the pandemic so that's a null hypothesis.  The new build orders are a result of the companies direction pre-covid. 

 

Keep in mind, CCL was the only cruise line losing value in the market for the years preceding the pandemic (2018-2020).   And CCL has recovered the least post covid (not that market price should be the strongest indicator)

 

 

 

 

For some reason CCL restructured so that HAL and Seabourn are under the same umbrella leaving Princess all alone. We don't know the reason, but I would bet my farm it wasn't happenstance. 

 

 

A bit more than that they restructured giving brands more independence. Not just Princess.

 

They also moved to uk and Australia regional structure with Costa and Aida also independent. Basically a structure that put more direct line of control from the CEO to the brands, while at the same time allowing those brands more independence in how they run their brands. Not unusual when a long term CEO is replaced by a new one.

 

As far as ship building HAL had gotten several new ships in the years prior to Covid. Those ships added capacity, even with the older smaller ships being retired. If Covid had not we probably would have seen an order or two starting to go through the system.

 

Looking at age of ships and capacity, as well as the last 3 completed I would expect the next ship to be a different class that would have been, without Covid, sometime  around 26, 27 time frame.

Edited July 4, 2023 by ldtr

[jthek]

CCL will be fine

plus getting the Shareholder credit is a big plus

[Haljo1935]

37 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

...The fact that HAL does not have any ships on deck happened long before covid. .  I don't believe there is a single cruise line that has actually ordered new ships since the pandemic so that's a null hypothesis.  The new build orders are a result of the companies direction pre-covid. ...

 

For some reason CCL restructured so that HAL and Seabourn are under the same umbrella leaving Princess all alone. We don't know the reason, but I would bet my farm it wasn't happenstance. 

 

Aligned on both points.