Flying from Canada to Europe July 2024 - When to book?

[Ace_Caliente]

How far out is generally the sweet spot for either Westjet or AirCanada (and I guess AirTransat) for flights in July? I looked at some flights when the seats were first available several weeks ago and they're up about 10% now. In 2022 I booked around late January for early July flights, but I hadn't been watching prices up to that point so I don't know if those prices were better than they were a few months earlier.

[CruiserBruce]

There is NO best time to book, and nobody is going to be able to accurately say when the prices will be lowest. Good chance you missed the cheapest coach seats...they may be sold out already.

 

All you can do is do a little research, find a price you can live with, purchase, and don't look back.

[CDNPolar]

We generally always start to look at 300 days out and book at 270'ish days out.

 

In my experience - and we fly a lot - prices don't decline today for airfare by waiting.  Prices generally increase as you get closer because the discounted seats disappear fast.

 

What you might do is sign up for AC discount fare emails.  I think that they come out on Tuesdays but it is hit and miss if you will see something for your destination.

 

We also tend to book fares that can be canceled and refunded for a fee which are generally higher priced fares anyway.

 

Additionally, be careful with booking sites and their promise of the lowest fare.  AC publishes that they have the lowest rates online, which means that they don't supply the supposed discount sites with their lowest fares.

Edited October 1, 2023 by CDNPolar

[mr_reiter]

I don't pretend to know the sweet spot, and my experience is only a single data point.

 

Early in September, I bought business class on Air Canada from RDU to Barcelona through Toronto with a return, also through Toronto, from Rome.  The cruise is a 2-week cruise in mid-May 2024.  Less than one month later, that same itinerary is nearly $1900 more (per both AC's site and Matrix).   The main culprit was the YYZ-BCN leg.  Similarly, a business class seat through Montreal to BCN is now $800+ more than it was a month ago.

 

I checked hoping for a cheaper fare; how naive was I? 😄

[d9704011]

If I were you, I'd do it now.  I agree with advice in a recent Globe and Mail piece...

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-travellers-the-best-time-to-book-flights-and-hotels-is-now-why-sales/

[CDNPolar]

Great article.

 

I have friends that swear you can get cheaper flights if you book one day over another, or at this or that time of day.  The other conspiracy theory - IMO - is that if you have searched once, then you must do your next search in an incognito window as the site, or airline, or hotel, knows you have been there before and will automatically put the price up.  The price just went up.  Simple.  No conspiracy.

 

We really shop airlines and tickets now as a bit of a hobby.

 

I fly to very distant destinations for work with out having firm dates when the subject is first approached by my boss.  I am talking from Toronto to Australia, South Africa, Philippines, and sometimes European destinations.  I start to look on GoogleFlights as soon as I get the hint that I may be going and I start to watch dates and fares.  They just go up, and up and up the closer that you get to the time of travel.

 

We have been researching flights to bring a family member from China for months.  When the dates that we needed finally opened up, (about 300 days) we booked, and daily and weekly since, the cost has been going up.

 

We don't, and I am sure no one wants to give airlines your money 300 days from the flight, but what we do is look for the fares that have cancellation/refund for say $200 per ticket, and you can get these at a much more reasonable price 300 days out, rather than waiting because every fare goes up.  The tickets we bought for China have a $200 fee to cancel with a full refund up to and including the day of travel.  How can you say no to this?

 

We see that some airlines offer these fares with very reasonable cancellation fees that are cheaper than paying for cancellation insurance.  (Cancelation insurance would not pay out for something that is cancellable or refundable, except for the cancel/refund fee anyway.)

 

I really don't buy into all these tips and tricks and also don't believe that the so called discount sites for air travel offer better fares.  There are some airlines that keep the lowest fares on their site and don't give those out to the reseller.  (Why would they, as they have to pay a reseller a fee.)

[bison2013]

GoogleFlights allows you to track prices for the date/routes you are interested in and will send you an alert if a significant from normal price change has occurred (higher or lower).

 

Best advise is when you find something in your price budget, book it and then monitor for flight changes.  While each airline is different, when the airline makes a schedule change, it generally opens up other options for you to look at with better timing, fewer stopovers (generally the most expensive flights are direct) etc

 

We always book direct with the airline vs using third parties. 

 

Interesting that most on these boards are happy to use a TA for cruise booking but choose to book flights, hotel etc directly.

[FlyerTalker]

44 minutes ago, bison2013 said:

Interesting that most on these boards are happy to use a TA for cruise booking but choose to book flights, hotel etc directly.

 

Because most travel agents are just order takers and do not really provide any value-added service other than price and/or OBC.  I would venture to guess that less than 10% really have any training or knowledge about air travel and the various ins and outs of the industry.

 

 

[phabric]

If your cruise line has an Air Dept, book a flexible (no payment) flights and watch the prices on the air line website and take the price you like.

[FlyerTalker]

26 minutes ago, phabric said:

If your cruise line has an Air Dept, book a flexible (no payment) flights and watch the prices on the air line website and take the price you like.

 

As long as you are aware that the tickets from the cruiseline are NOT the same as the published fare tickets bought directly from the airline.  They are apples and oranges.

 

 

[waterbug123]

There is no magic time at which prices are consistently lowest.  Airlines use complicated algorithms to constantly compare what they expected to sell to what has actually sold, and adjust fare bucket availability accordingly.  The algorithm may factor in what the competition is or is not doing, special events that may cause extreme fluctuations in demand etc.  Trying to second guess the algorithm is futile.

But, since covid some airlines have gone to a no-change-fee policy, whereby if you purchase and later see the same itinerary for a lower price, you can change your ticket without paying a change fee.

[CDNPolar]

19 hours ago, waterbug123 said:

 

But, since covid some airlines have gone to a no-change-fee policy, whereby if you purchase and later see the same itinerary for a lower price, you can change your ticket without paying a change fee.

 

Yes - some airlines - as you state here, but often it is difficult to find the rules of the fare in an understandable format with some airlines until you are halfway through the booking process.

I find that if you are just trying to understand the airline cancel and change policies, it is difficult to do until you are actually in the booking process.  You don't have to pay, but you do have to be close to that point.

 

We were booking a number of flights on Korean air, and they have a fantastic change and cancel policy, but it was not 100% evident until we were selecting the flights in the booking process.

[em-sk]

They load a certain number of seats into each fare category.  As they sell out lower fare categories your left with only higher ones on a specific given flight.  So if you look a day or two earlier or later you will see some differences.

 

Both Air Canada and WestJet will run sales from time to time.  Sometimes there is a special code you need to enter other time is more general.   As an example, just now Air Canada is running a promo where they are offering bonus Aeroplan points.  Usually if you look at their websites under the Special Officers or something like that you will see these.  

 

I would expect something around Black Friday.  That said, it will likely be a percentage discount off of what every is left at the time.  Will you get a better deal now than waiting for a sale? Hard to say.  

 

 

[FlyerTalker]

The other aspect about "sales":  Very rarely do they apply to all routes and/or all dates.

 

Airlines have an excellent handle on what flights are and are not selling well.  For those routes/dates where there is strong demand, inventory will likely not be loaded into the discounted fare buckets.  Or the number of seats will be limited.

 

If you want a flight that is already pricing out higher than other options, that's indication of strong demand.  Evidence that it will likely not be included in some future sale -- they will try to induce demand in the flights that are not selling well.  So use your Econ 101 knowledge and don't hope for a better price.  Because hope is not a strategy.