Good time to buy Carnival shares for the perks? And cheap cruises?

[AndyMichelle]

15 minutes ago, funinhounslow said:

Interesting article and documentary about Carnival, focussing among other things on how they have bounced back from previous crises, and how they are in better shape than their competitors.

 

However “it’s different this time” and cruise lines are excluded from US govt support...Well worth a watch...

 

https://apple.news/AESmnltqGRMavDw0qPjUGFg

 

 

Interesting read, although it shows that nobody knows anything about what will happen. 

Positives and negatives, although Carnival seem better equipped than their competitors... 

Andy 

[funinhounslow]

Interesting that they make the point that smaller ships may increase in popularity - just after P&O got rid of the Oriana...

[AndyMichelle]

Just now, funinhounslow said:

Interesting that they make the point that smaller ships may increase in popularity - just after P&O got rid of the Oriana...

It is such a conflicting article, but very good, thank you for posting. 

I don't think I have ever seen industry experts be so far apart on their views of what will happen.. 

I think time is the only factor... If we can get back to some sort of normality fairly quickly, nothing much will change, but who knows what will happen if it drags out. 

Andy 

 

[zap99]

On 4/4/2020 at 11:35 PM, wowzz said:

Well, unfortunately,  it certainly won't be this  August. 

Perhaps we will be allowed to go to Warner's at Bembridge. We can sit on the terrace with a nice glass of wine and watch the cruise ships leaving the Solent...........Hang on, that won't work, will it.

[molecrochip]

On 4/4/2020 at 11:35 PM, wowzz said:

Well, unfortunately,  it certainly won't be this  August. 

You don’t know that. I can’t believe the overwhelming negativity on here. If it was known then it would be announced.

 

Before anyone talks about sheltering for  12 weeks, no one has suggested it will be that long for most.

Edited April 6, 2020 by molecrochip

[cruisenewbie1976]

26 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

You don’t know that. I can’t believe the overwhelming negativity on here. If it was known then it would be announced.

 

Before anyone talks about sheltering for  12 weeks, no one has suggested it will be that long for most.

You tend to find most forums bring out a lot of negative people. It really does bring you down. I've tried to avoid even looking on here, for the sake of my mental health. You'd think that we're going to be locked in our houses forever more if you believed everything on here. 

[wowzz]

1 hour ago, molecrochip said:

You don’t know that. I can’t believe the overwhelming negativity on here. If it was known then it would be announced.

 

Before anyone talks about sheltering for  12 weeks, no one has suggested it will be that long for most.

P&O have laid off all their staff from the end of May. They wouldn't be doing that if they thought cruises would resume in August. 

[zap99]

8 minutes ago, wowzz said:

P&O have laid off all their staff from the end of May. They wouldn't be doing that if they thought cruises would resume in August. 

FCO has advised no overseas travel indefinitely. Being positive, I recon that means until at least May. I got an e-mail earlier  from a Devon hotel that their summer specials are starting in August. I positively won't be taking them up on that as We will positively be on Iona in  late August. I'm positive Norway will let us dock. No negativity in our camp, but I am positive TUI will cancel our Canaries holiday that should be going in 2 Weeks. I'm also positive we will be chasing forever for a refund.

[NoFlyGuy]

34 minutes ago, wowzz said:

P&O have laid off all their staff from the end of May. They wouldn't be doing that if they thought cruises would resume in August. 

Could be wrong but I thought it was to the end of June.

Even when travel restrictions start to be lifted I would think that cruise ships would be the last to be accepted by countries across the world. Rightly or wrongly cruise ships may well be perceived to be a hotbed of infection.

[molecrochip]

34 minutes ago, wowzz said:

P&O have laid off all their staff from the end of May. They wouldn't be doing that if they thought cruises would resume in August. 

No they have not.Crew want to be at home with their families if they are not needed.

 

The internet has a copy of the letter given to crew whose contracts are being ended and are therefore going home. This includes many crew who should already have gone home but have been unable to because of flight restrictions. This letter also covers crew who should have joined the ships since early February but have been unable to, again because of restrictions. None of these crew are directly employed by P&O either.

 

No reference is made to July onwards. Please bear in mind that crew contracts start most days of the year.

 

Cruise companies are looking at chartering planes to get crew home and can adopt the same approach when they decide to restart. Therefore as soon as P&O decide to start again, they can call on the crew and ask them to jump on a plane. 

[wowzz]

Realistically,  cruises will start when the Brutush Government decide it is safe to have 5000 people squashed together in a ship,  when other countries are prepared to allow thousands of foreigners to enter their ports, and when insurance companies are prepared to cover individuals for Coronavirus. 

Thinking that none of the above will take place by August seems purely rational to me.  

[NoFlyGuy]

25 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Realistically,  cruises will start when the Brutush Government decide it is safe to have 5000 people squashed together in a ship,  when other countries are prepared to allow thousands of foreigners to enter their ports, and when insurance companies are prepared to cover individuals for Coronavirus. 

Thinking that none of the above will take place by August seems purely rational to me.  

Would agree. Anyone who thinks a July or August cruise is likely to go ahead must be in dreamland.

[majortom10]

3 minutes ago, NoFlyGuy said:

Would agree. Anyone who thinks a July or August cruise is likely to go ahead must be in dreamland.

Princess must be in dreamland because they are advertising round British Isles cruises from Southampton at fantastic prices for August/September.

[terrierjohn]

3 hours ago, wowzz said:

P&O have laid off all their staff from the end of May. They wouldn't be doing that if they thought cruises would resume in August. 

Not all wowzz, some hotel staff are being kept on to service the remaining crew, and I would guess the local agents they use will be ready to move into gear and quickly commence recruiting, once cruising is given the green light.

[wowzz]

30 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

Princess must be in dreamland because they are advertising round British Isles cruises from Southampton at fantastic prices for August/September.

They may well be advertising them, but anyone booking them needs their head examining!

[wowzz]

2 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Not all wowzz, some hotel staff are being kept on to service the remaining crew, and I would guess the local agents they use will be ready to move into gear and quickly commence recruiting, once cruising is given the green light.

Fair point - I should not have made such a sweeping statement.  Whilst I agree that things can move fairly quickly once a green light is given, I would still have thought that at least 4 weeks would be needed to recruit and transport the necessary crew, plus time for training and orientation. 

The other issue, of course, is that resumption requires the agreement of the relevant nations. If Italy,  for example allows cruise ships to dock, but France and Spain do not, how will the  cruise lines come up with acceptable itineraries? 

[terrierjohn]

2 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Fair point - I should not have made such a sweeping statement.  Whilst I agree that things can move fairly quickly once a green light is given, I would still have thought that at least 4 weeks would be needed to recruit and transport the necessary crew, plus time for training and orientation. 

The other issue, of course, is that resumption requires the agreement of the relevant nations. If Italy,  for example allows cruise ships to dock, but France and Spain do not, how will the  cruise lines come up with acceptable itineraries? 

I would assume that previous crew members who are fully trained will be the first ones signed up.

[wowzz]

25 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I would assume that previous crew members who are fully trained will be the first ones signed up.

Yes, and realistically you would imagine that P&O,  and indeed other lines, would resume schedules on a rolling basis. Trying to suddenly re-recruit 10,000  or so staff, and promptly start a full cruise schedule for the entire fleet is not going to happen. 

 

[P&O SUE]

This is the thing, I’ve been trying to remain positive as my next cruise is October but it’s mainly Spanish ports and my worry is will the ports accept us?

I’m tentatively looking round for something in the Uk because the cruise was for my husband’s 60th. I absolutely would prefer to cruise but we’ve got to be realistic.

[AndyMichelle]

9 hours ago, wowzz said:

Yes, and realistically you would imagine that P&O,  and indeed other lines, would resume schedules on a rolling basis. Trying to suddenly re-recruit 10,000  or so staff, and promptly start a full cruise schedule for the entire fleet is not going to happen. 

 

I'm pretty sure I read on a Carnival statement that if they store the ships cold, as it seems they are planning now, they would need a month to get them ready, as opposed to warm, with the majority of crew onboard and the ship mechanically ready to go. 

I bet they have a flat battery, as all our cars are likely to have. 😊🔋 

Andy 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by AndyMichelle

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, AndyMichelle said:

I bet they have a flat battery, as all our cars are likely to have.

Not too easy to "push start " a cruise ship either, unless it's going downhill.

[Son of Anarchy]

Keep it on a trickle charger.  The leccy bill might be interesting though!

[terrierjohn]

The ships are still having to go out to sea every week or so to dump grey water, so the battery should kept charged up, and with nothing else to do they should be sparkling clean and repainted everywhere, and all the working parts fully overhauled, just like our own homes due to us staying at home.

[AndyMichelle]

4 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

The ships are still having to go out to sea every week or so to dump grey water, so the battery should kept charged up, and with nothing else to do they should be sparkling clean and repainted everywhere, and all the working parts fully overhauled, just like our own homes due to us staying at home.

You have far more knowledge than me John, but when they say they are putting them into cold storage, does that not mean that they will not move, hence why they need a month to get them up and running again? 

Please excuse my ignorance... 

Andy 

[terrierjohn]

29 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

You have far more knowledge than me John, but when they say they are putting them into cold storage, does that not mean that they will not move, hence why they need a month to get them up and running again? 

Please excuse my ignorance... 

Andy 

It may do Andy, but all those posters who keep an eye on marine traffic websites tell me that they are still putting out to sea, and the P&O letter to crew about them being sent home specifically said that some hotel staff would be needed on board to service the needs of the remaining crew.