Good time to buy Carnival shares for the perks? And cheap cruises?

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, mickrory said:

£14 now. Must be worth a punt if they drop below £10.

I think I'd wait until they are less than £5 !

[Tangoqueen]

Keeping an eye on share prices during my lunch as hoped to buy more today it states they’ve closed the market, it’s back on now, just gone under £12 per share

Edited March 12, 2020 by Tangoqueen

[Eddie99]

Still not time to buy, according to this article

https://investorplace.com/2020/03/right-time-own-carnival-ccl-stock/

That’s for serious investors though

If you plan at least two 14 night cruises pa, once the world gets back to normal, a £1200 investment now would be repaid in Shareholder Credits in just 4 years.  After that one would get £150 *free* every cruise and, hopefully, quarterly dividends again at some point.  Then, when you cruise no more, you or your beneficiaries will get the value of 100 shares at that point.  Looks like a win-win, as long as Carnival survives

[funinhounslow]

On 3/12/2020 at 9:00 AM, mickrory said:

£14 now. Must be worth a punt if they drop below £10.

Just dipped below £10 now. 
 

Though I really don’t recommend “putting your money where your mouth is”...

[CCFC]

Just bought another 100 at £1.16, cant see them going down much more than that

[Harry Peterson]

17 minutes ago, CCFC said:

Just bought another 100 at £1.16, cant see them going down much more than that

Quite a bargain, given that they're trading at around £11!

[CCFC]

Oops, decimal point in the wrong place! Paid £1161 for a hundred.

[tring]

I am not convinced they will be giving share benefit for a couple of years after this.

 

Also, although many of us are confirmed cruisers, I do wonder if the newer cruisers will continue to cruise after this and enough new ones joining them to fill Iona and Iona II.  They could get rid of the mid sized ships, but that could get rid of a number of older cruisers (like us).

 

DH's shares were sold this - maybe better to have sold earlier, but can reclaim  28% of the loss in a reduced capital gains tax on inherited property that has been sold this tax year. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by tring

[funinhounslow]

On 3/12/2020 at 9:02 AM, wowzz said:

I think I'd wait until they are less than £5 !

Currently hovering at around £8 so this may be one of your more accurate “predictions” funnily enough...

[wowzz]

3 hours ago, funinhounslow said:

Currently hovering at around £8 so this may be one of your more accurate “predictions” funnily enough...

I think you mean my only accurate (or even semi accurate! ) prediction.  

Just as well I'm taking the long view, because if I dared look at my overall portfolio at the moment,  I think I'd burst into tears! 

[molecrochip]

I bought at 1000p per share. I set a price I’d be happy buying at about four weeks ago and A condition of all brands having suspended cruises. I stuck to it.

 

I’m happy to hold shares for 5-10 years if necessary so won’t panic if they drop to 500p per share in the short term, although didn’t believe that they would drop that low. If they do, I might increase my position.

[Harry Peterson]

Too late for me to sell, but in my mind they're written off and I'm gambling on survival now.  Anybody's guess whether they'll go under or not, but I don't like the look of its having notified its lenders that it will fully draw on its facility agreement to borrow about $3 billion under the agreement for six months in order to boost its cash position.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Harry Peterson

[Les_ldh]

45 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

I bought at 1000p per share. I set a price I’d be happy buying at about four weeks ago and A condition of all brands having suspended cruises. I stuck to it.

 

I’m happy to hold shares for 5-10 years if necessary so won’t panic if they drop to 500p per share in the short term, although didn’t believe that they would drop that low. If they do, I might increase my position.

Keep an eye on them then as they’re 657p now and falling quickly.

[Waju]

Please excuse my ignorance on this subject - we have 100 shares - if they drop to 'zero' does that mean the Company have gone bust and all your money is lost?  We don't know whether to gamble on buying some more while they are so low.

[yorkshirephil]

3 minutes ago, Waju said:

Please excuse my ignorance on this subject - we have 100 shares - if they drop to 'zero' does that mean the Company have gone bust and all your money is lost?  We don't know whether to gamble on buying some more while they are so low.

Who knows, shares could be suspended, they could go down to virtually nothing, if they go bust it is highly likely you would get nothing back as their assets will be hocked to the banks and creditors. Anyone buying shares at the moment should be willing to write off the money. Then again in 6 months it may be the best investment you ever made. I paid £18 for mine many years ago and have had my money back in divi's and OBC. 

[Harry Peterson]

8 minutes ago, Waju said:

Please excuse my ignorance on this subject - we have 100 shares - if they drop to 'zero' does that mean the Company have gone bust and all your money is lost?  We don't know whether to gamble on buying some more while they are so low.

The lower the price goes the less confidence buyers have in the company. If it goes under, the shares become valueless, but at some point prior to that the markets will probably reflect their opinion in a price fairly close to zero.  I'm keeping mine for now, but there's no way I'll be adding to them.

[Waju]

Thank you both for your replies, my husband is having a chat with his broker at the moment.  We bought at a fairly high price so have no choice but to sit on them at the moment!  Difficult times for all of us.😒

[crompton21]

On 3/8/2020 at 5:01 PM, crompton21 said:

If you value a company based on what it was once worth, then this may be the time to buy.  A bit like signing Wayne Rooney today because he was worth X million in 2013.

The last few years slow reduction in share price (prior to this years covid collapse) reflects the result of a reducing free cash flow metric and continued expansion of long term debt.  Long term debt is about $10.5 billion with a further very significant amount of expenditure in the pipeline.  There appear to be covenants attached to their borrowings which the current situation may have a genuine effect upon, the consequences of which (as stated in Carnival's accounts) are:

 

"Generally, if an event of default under any debt agreement occurs, then pursuant to cross default acceleration clauses, substantially all of our outstanding debt and derivative contract payables could become due, and all debt and derivative contracts could be terminated."

 

Buyer beware....

 

Since I posted this Carnival have maxed out their borrowings using up what (from memory) was the maximum of their agreed borrowings, a further 3 billion $.  That equates to about two months income in normal times.  It is clearly possible that they will need more money, how they achieve that is questionable given the unknown situation we find ourselves in.

 

If they find a magic answer then the shares are very cheap.  If they don't the shares are quite possibly worthless.  

[majortom10]

On 3/17/2020 at 1:27 AM, tring said:

I am not convinced they will be giving share benefit for a couple of years after this.

 

Also, although many of us are confirmed cruisers, I do wonder if the newer cruisers will continue to cruise after this and enough new ones joining them to fill Iona and Iona II.  They could get rid of the mid sized ships, but that could get rid of a number of older cruisers (like us).

 

DH's shares were sold this - maybe better to have sold earlier, but can reclaim  28% of the loss in a reduced capital gains tax on inherited property that has been sold this tax year. 

I can honestly see  the building of Iona 2 will be cancelled and Oceana will be sold or if nobody will purchase her sent for scrap to generate money.

[Son of Anarchy]

46 minutes ago, majortom10 said:

I can honestly see  the building of Iona 2 will be cancelled and Oceana will be sold or if nobody will purchase her sent for scrap to generate money.

 

From a totally personal perspective I agree.  Didn't particularly like Britannia, so not a big fan of ships that size.  Next least favourite ship is Oceana, even though she is the ship we have cruised on the most, and we've had some great cruises on her.

 

 

[yorkshirephil]

Anyone who bought shares yesterday evening would now be showing a 16.5% profit.

[bodgerday]

Trump is looking at using Carnival ships as hospital ships.  Also he is going to support the cruise industry. This is according to Bloomberg.  So I have invested.  If the company has government backing, that is good enough for me.

[Harry Peterson]

21 minutes ago, bodgerday said:

Trump is looking at using Carnival ships as hospital ships.  Also he is going to support the cruise industry. This is according to Bloomberg.  So I have invested.  If the company has government backing, that is good enough for me.

That rather depends on how much credence you place in anything from that source (and I don't mean Blomberg).  Personally, I wouldn't make any financial plays on the strength of that!

[terrierjohn]

It looks like last weeks recovery was a bit of a dead cats bounce, down a further 15% today.

[pete14]

45 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

It looks like last weeks recovery was a bit of a dead cats bounce, down a further 15% today.

It is now down by 10% rather than 15% which I think is quite positive considering they have announced another 5 weeks of cancellations today. Could have been a whole lot worse.