Cunard's Coronavirus Cancellations/Refunds (Merged threads)

[oskidunker]

Wise decision. Let us know what you get.  I cancelled Sept cruise and moved deposit to Oct .  2021. Luckily I did not yet have final payment due. 

[jer_l]

5 hours ago, Desert Cruisers said:

 Yes, we are becoming experts on these issues.  Waiting for Cunard to cancel the QE's June Alaska sailing.  Then next up will be late August - Cunard/Azamara/Oceania.  Both Cunard and Azamara are delaying [at least in the USA] final payment dates but Oceania is being stinky about it.  Don't even get me started about airlines....we had a Southampton-Dublin flight on Flybe which is now Flyno.

I too am waiting for cancellation of a June Alaska cruise since it departs from Vancouver and stops in both Prince Rupert and Victoria. Today I received an email from them which I assumed was about the cruise being cancelled, but it was to inform me that I was missing immigration information. I was certain they were wrong so I checked their website. Everything they asked for was complete and has been for months!  Even if I had been missing information, why are they bothering sending an email informing me of that for a cruise that cannot sail?  This would have been our first Cunard cruise, but I am very disappointed with their lack of communication and will be asking for a refund once the cruise is officially cancelled.

[bluemarble]

9 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I wonder what is the total sum of refunds that they have to pay to all those passengers ...

 

Just as an interesting mental exercise, here's my rough estimate of the total dollar amount of fares subject to refund for the Cunard voyages that have been canceled so far.

 

QM2 voyages have been canceled from March 15 to May 20 = 66 days

QV voyages have been canceled from March 28 to May 31 = 64 days

Original QE Asia voyages were canceled from March 9 to June 2 = 85 days

Revised QE Australia voyages have been canceled from March 15 to June 2 = 79 days

 

I'll figure QM2's capacity at 2600 passengers.

I'll figure QV's and QE's capacity at 2000 passengers each.

 

I'll figure the average fare paid for the QM2, QV, and original QE voyages at $200 per passenger per day.

I'll figure the average fare paid for the revised QE voyages at $100 per passenger per day.

 

The grand total I come up with, based on these assumptions, for the fares subject to refund on the Cunard voyages canceled so far is $109,720,000.00.

 

Feel free to revise any of these assumptions I've made and/or check my math.

[IB2]

2 hours ago, bluemarble said:

 

Just as an interesting mental exercise, here's my rough estimate of the total dollar amount of fares subject to refund for the Cunard voyages that have been canceled so far.

 

QM2 voyages have been canceled from March 15 to May 20 = 66 days

QV voyages have been canceled from March 28 to May 31 = 64 days

Original QE Asia voyages were canceled from March 9 to June 2 = 85 days

Revised QE Australia voyages have been canceled from March 15 to June 2 = 79 days

 

I'll figure QM2's capacity at 2600 passengers.

I'll figure QV's and QE's capacity at 2000 passengers each.

 

I'll figure the average fare paid for the QM2, QV, and original QE voyages at $200 per passenger per day.

I'll figure the average fare paid for the revised QE voyages at $100 per passenger per day.

 

The grand total I come up with, based on these assumptions, for the fares subject to refund on the Cunard voyages canceled so far is $109,720,000.00.

 

Feel free to revise any of these assumptions I've made and/or check my math.

Plus the costs of compensation, hotels, flights home for those passengers whose flights were abruptly terminated, all the extra admin, and the accounting cost of converting refunds into enhanced credit.  And I am sure there is a roll of extra costs.

[Windsurfboy]

Think the costs / lack of income above are under estimated,  but even at $200million a month , their $6 billion loan will cover it. So they will have enough for a years refunds. But the 12% interest rate on the loans will add to future costs and then of course  cruise prices

[Trevor33]

11 hours ago, bazzaw said:

Rumour ( supposedly  coming from a staff member on QE) is that QE will depart Australian waters within 3-4 days. 

Yes I have heard that it is going to become a hospital ship in Australia, I guess that cruising may not therefore be starting as soon as some people think

[Trevor33]

5 hours ago, bluemarble said:

 

Just as an interesting mental exercise, here's my rough estimate of the total dollar amount of fares subject to refund for the Cunard voyages that have been canceled so far.

 

QM2 voyages have been canceled from March 15 to May 20 = 66 days

QV voyages have been canceled from March 28 to May 31 = 64 days

Original QE Asia voyages were canceled from March 9 to June 2 = 85 days

Revised QE Australia voyages have been canceled from March 15 to June 2 = 79 days

 

I'll figure QM2's capacity at 2600 passengers.

I'll figure QV's and QE's capacity at 2000 passengers each.

 

I'll figure the average fare paid for the QM2, QV, and original QE voyages at $200 per passenger per day.

I'll figure the average fare paid for the revised QE voyages at $100 per passenger per day.

 

The grand total I come up with, based on these assumptions, for the fares subject to refund on the Cunard voyages canceled so far is $109,720,000.00.

 

Feel free to revise any of these assumptions I've made and/or check my math.

I think much of what you say is true except the $200 per person a day is a little low. The Princess Grill booking we have works out at approx $300 per person per day. Either way the answer to the calculation is enormous - I guess this is why there is a delay in getting peoples monies back to them. 

[bluemarble]

4 hours ago, IB2 said:

Plus the costs of compensation, hotels, flights home for those passengers whose flights were abruptly terminated, all the extra admin, and the accounting cost of converting refunds into enhanced credit.  And I am sure there is a roll of extra costs.

 

1 hour ago, Windsurfboy said:

Think the costs / lack of income above are under estimated,  but even at $200million a month , their $6 billion loan will cover it. So they will have enough for a years refunds. But the 12% interest rate on the loans will add to future costs and then of course  cruise prices

 

Absolutely agree. I was not attempting to compute the total costs to Cunard of the canceled cruises. That is far more than the figure I came up with above. I was just attempting to come up with an estimate of the amount of fares that Cunard would have to refund if everyone asked for a refund versus accepting FCC for their canceled cruises. I believe that's what Roger88 was asking. And I only estimated the amount of refunds for the voyages that have been officially canceled so far. That figure will of course increase dramatically as additional cruises are inevitably canceled down the road.

 

1 hour ago, Trevor33 said:

I think much of what you say is true except the $200 per person a day is a little low. The Princess Grill booking we have works out at approx $300 per person per day. Either way the answer to the calculation is enormous - I guess this is why there is a delay in getting peoples monies back to them.

 

$200 per person per day may be a bit low. That's my estimate of what a Britannia balcony goes for since that's what the majority of the cabins on board are. Naturally insides and oceanviews are less than balconies and grills are more. $250 per person per day might be a better figure for an average fare paid across all types of cabins. In that case, my estimate of the total amount of fares to be refunded on the cruises canceled so far would increase to $113.2 million.

Edited April 5, 2020 by bluemarble

[bluemarble]

5 hours ago, Trevor33 said:

Yes I have heard that it is going to become a hospital ship in Australia, I guess that cruising may not therefore be starting as soon as some people think

 

That would certainly be an interesting development. I have been reading in the Long Beach Post and LA Times that there are discussions underway to possibly use the original Queen Mary in Long Beach, California as some kind of medical facility. Quoting from the Post:

 

"It is unclear exactly how the Queen Mary would be used. But multiple sources said the ship could be used as a type of convalescent facility for patients who no longer need intensive hospital care."

Edited April 5, 2020 by bluemarble

[Windsurfboy]

The interest at 12% on 6 billion for carnival will be $60million a month, don't know exactly how many cabin weeks that this will be spread across

 

A guess 50 ships,  2000 cabins per ship , 4 weeks a month, is 400000 weeks per month. This gives the cost of the loan as $150 per cabin week.

 

If you say 75 ships and 2000 cabins then 600000 cabin weeks per month the loan is $100 per cabin week.

 

Which ever way you calculate it cruises are going to up very significantly 

[IB2]

7 hours ago, Trevor33 said:

Yes I have heard that it is going to become a hospital ship in Australia, I guess that cruising may not therefore be starting as soon as some people think

Anyone who thinks cruising is likely to resume any time soon hasn’t been paying attention.  It will be a miracle if there are any cruises before 2021.

[exlondoner]

14 minutes ago, Windsurfboy said:

The interest at 12% on 6 billion for carnival will be $60million a month, don't know exactly how many cabin weeks that this will be spread across

 

A guess 50 ships,  2000 cabins per ship , 4 weeks a month, is 400000 weeks per month. This gives the cost of the loan as $150 per cabin week.

 

If you say 75 ships and 2000 cabins then 600000 cabin weeks per month the loan is $100 per cabin week.

 

Which ever way you calculate it cruises are going to up very significantly 

 

Better book up quickly then?

[oskidunker]

Not so fast, my friend..,

[Windsurfboy]

The problems will appear in a few years , if the market won't support these higher prices and ship's arent full that's when cruise companies may be in financial trouble. 

[Trevor33]

1 hour ago, Windsurfboy said:

The interest at 12% on 6 billion for carnival will be $60million a month, don't know exactly how many cabin weeks that this will be spread across

 

A guess 50 ships,  2000 cabins per ship , 4 weeks a month, is 400000 weeks per month. This gives the cost of the loan as $150 per cabin week.

 

If you say 75 ships and 2000 cabins then 600000 cabin weeks per month the loan is $100 per cabin week.

 

Which ever way you calculate it cruises are going to up very significantly 

According to an American Market Analyst for every month the Ships remain empty the cost to the Carnival Corporation will be $1Billion. It is hardly surprising that the cruise lines want to start visiting the ports as soon as they can.

[Bigmike911]

6 hours ago, bluemarble said:

 

That would certainly be an interesting development. I have been reading in the Long Beach Post and LA Times that there are discussions underway to possibly use the original Queen Mary in Long Beach, California as some kind of medical facility. Quoting from the Post:

 

"It is unclear exactly how the Queen Mary would be used. But multiple sources said the ship could be used as a type of convalescent facility for patients who no longer need intensive hospital care."

Queen Mary is a hotel with 300 rooms, with running hot and cold water, toilets, electricity and air conditioning. I think it is as suitable or more than some of the military field hospitals that are being put up in convention centers in the U.S. and abroad.

[latserrof]

6 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

Which ever way you calculate it cruises are going to up very significantly 

The cruise lines can't just raise prices to cover their additional costs -- they still have to fill the ships, and they're going to have a difficult enough time attracting passengers, without higher prices. They are already effectively cutting prices by offering all this FCC, and they may have to cut prices further to try to bring back passengers.  And there may be a price war as all the lines struggle to stay alive.

 

Do you really think they will be able to get away with charging more after all of this mess?

Edited April 5, 2020 by latserrof

[bazzaw]

I think that there are going to be two "flies in the ointment" which will cause problems in regard to  the cruise industry starting up again. The first will be Travel Insurance and the second will be the WHO (World Health organisation) . WHO was slow to declare a Pandemic - and they will declare the crisis over even more slowly. In fact they will avoid doing this until every Coronavirus cell has been proven to have been destroyed!!! - and this will prevent Travel Insurance coverage plus will stop countries opening their ports to cruiseships  This Pub is going to be dry for a long time! 

[Windsurfboy]

 

10 hours ago, latserrof said:

The cruise lines can't just raise prices to cover their additional costs -- they still have to fill the ships, and they're going to have a difficult enough time attracting passengers, without higher prices. They are already effectively cutting prices by offering all this FCC, and they may have to cut prices further to try to bring back passengers.  And there may be a price war as all the lines struggle to stay alive.

 

Do you really think they will be able to get away with charging more after all of this mess?

 

No  I think it will be hard to raise prices, but if their costs have gone up by maybe $100 per cabin week due to interest payments  and prices come down, as I said in earlier post, in a few years time if this happens they will be in financial trouble. 

 

This is one reason I won't be booking a cruise for 2022

[Trevor33]

25 minutes ago, Windsurfboy said:

 

 

No  I think it will be hard to raise prices, but if their costs have gone up by maybe $100 per cabin week due to interest payments  and prices come down, as I said in earlier post, in a few years time if this happens they will be in financial trouble. 

 

This is one reason I won't be booking a cruise for 2022

The problem is I think people will be very cautious, it is not that cruisers do not want to cruise. No one thought Thomas Cook would collapse afetr a massive cash injection. I had a booking with thomas Cook so I suppose "Once bitten twice shy" as they say

On 4/3/2020 at 6:56 PM, oskidunker said:

Stock stable today at 8.18. Bought some yesterday at 8, bought some at 8.9 and some at 9.5. 
 

my plan is to keep 100 shares for onboard credit. The rest I will sell once I make 30%. Then if they declare bankruptcy I will only lose  $4-500.00. The stock likelt to be volatile for a while but you can make some money in the short term.  

 

[hypercafe]

9 hours ago, bazzaw said:

I think that there are going to be two "flies in the ointment" which will cause problems in regard to  the cruise industry starting up again. The first will be Travel Insurance and the second will be the WHO (World Health organisation) . WHO was slow to declare a Pandemic - and they will declare the crisis over even more slowly. In fact they will avoid doing this until every Coronavirus cell has been proven to have been destroyed!!! - and this will prevent Travel Insurance coverage plus will stop countries opening their ports to cruiseships  This Pub is going to be dry for a long time! 

I agree, travel insurance will become more expensive and more restricted and maybe impossible to get for some people or groups. The company I have already said they will no longer sell cancel for any reason policy. From a political point the WHO and many government were behind the 8 ball with this so will be very cautious going forward. I really can't imagine our CDC recommending travel on a cruise ship anytime soon.

[Trevor33]

when do you think the cruise ports will open as I am booked on World cruise January 2021 - do you think it will happen or if restricted ports what ones do you think will remain closed and would circumnavigation not be worth doing if same number of ports but in only a few countries?

[PORT ROYAL]

14 minutes ago, Trevor33 said:

when do you think the cruise ports will open as I am booked on World cruise January 2021 - do you think it will happen or if restricted ports what ones do you think will remain closed and would circumnavigation not be worth doing if same number of ports but in only a few countries?

 

Think about it this way.  

 

When will Insurance Companies accept to cover all risks, for visits to countries still suffering with any derivatives of SARS?

 

When will you be fully immunised against any derivatives of SARS?

 

When will every person in a county of destination be immunised against any derivative of SARS?

Edited April 6, 2020 by PORT ROYAL
Typo

[Trevor33]

Are you suggesting that cruise ships will be at anchor in 6-12 months time because of current situation?

[texanaust]

1 minute ago, Trevor33 said:

Are you suggesting that cruise ships will be at anchor in 6-12 months time because of current situation?

I'd say that is a very realistic scenario.  Here in Western Australia they are saying to plan for our borders to remain closed until after Christmas (not just the international border, but our closed state border).