CCL stock dips below 40

[n6uqqq]

8 hours ago, Computer Nerd said:

The Carnival OBC can most assuredly be used for gratuities. I've done this on several cruises.

 

While I agree with you that Carnival has been letting it go, their shareholder benefit explicitly says it cannot be used in casino or for gratuities. I am thinking they may get tough on this in the future because they are going to be hurting tremendously after this virus nightmare subsides. See attached document for details.

Shareholder Benefit 2020-2021.pdf

[coevan]

I am thinking with all the OBC hanging out there, they might find a way to stop the Casino cash out loophole. 

[travelhound]

53 minutes ago, n6uqqq said:

 

While I agree with you that Carnival has been letting it go, their shareholder benefit explicitly says it cannot be used in casino or for gratuities. I am thinking they may get tough on this in the future because they are going to be hurting tremendously after this virus nightmare subsides. See attached document for details.

Shareholder Benefit 2020-2021.pdf 172.12 kB · 1 download

I think that if you buy Carnival right now, it's not for the OBC, it's a bet on the vaccine.  Carnival is probably one of the best vaccine stocks you could buy right now.

[travelhound]

This looks like good news for Carnival.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnivals-german-cruise-brand-to-resume-sailings-the-u-s-no-sail-order-remains-51594304793

[TNcruising02]

34 minutes ago, travelhound said:

This looks like good news for Carnival.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnivals-german-cruise-brand-to-resume-sailings-the-u-s-no-sail-order-remains-51594304793

That is promising. Even though it's not in the US, it's good to see cruising beginning somewhere in the world.  It's a good first step.

[Computer Nerd]

49 minutes ago, travelhound said:

This looks like good news for Carnival.

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnivals-german-cruise-brand-to-resume-sailings-the-u-s-no-sail-order-remains-51594304793

If I didn't have to go back to work in August I'd head and take one of those cruises.

[travelhound]

50 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

That is promising. Even though it's not in the US, it's good to see cruising beginning somewhere in the world.  It's a good first step.

Yup, I was surprised that Carnival would start in Europe.  I always thought they would resume operations in the Caribbean.

[coevan]

3 hours ago, travelhound said:

I think that if you buy Carnival right now, it's not for the OBC, it's a bet on the vaccine.  Carnival is probably one of the best vaccine stocks you could buy right now.

 

 

I know this is a Carnival forum, but the reality is all travel and leisure stocks will explode when and if this ever ends

[travelhound]

8 minutes ago, coevan said:

 

 

I know this is a Carnival forum, but the reality is all travel and leisure stocks will explode when and if this ever ends

Yup, most travel stocks will explode upward when a vaccine is announced.  Although, the cruise lines were probably the hardest hit, and therefore they have the best prospect for recovery.

[TNcruising02]

I definitely think the travel stocks are a good risk. I diversified, so if something sinks I will still make out way ahead of the game some time in the future. I watch them every day for more opportunities.  Once there is a vaccine, I think stock will really reach some highs.

[travelhound]

11 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:

I definitely think the travel stocks are a good risk. I diversified, so if something sinks I will still make out way ahead of the game some time in the future. I watch them every day for more opportunities.  Once there is a vaccine, I think stock will really reach some highs.

It's just a matter of time before they announce a vaccine and that announcement could come as early as the end of the year 🙂

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-2020

[coevan]

4 hours ago, travelhound said:

It's just a matter of time before they announce a vaccine and that announcement could come as early as the end of the year 🙂

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-2020

  unfortunately not how it works, once the announcement of a vaccine, you have another year of testing and approval. 

[travelhound]

25 minutes ago, coevan said:

  unfortunately not how it works, once the announcement of a vaccine, you have another year of testing and approval. 

According to this article, they may start manufacturing the vaccine before the approval at the end of the year.  That said, this is probably the most optimistic scenario, but the stock market doesn't care, because it is forward looking by 6 to 12 months.  CCL will appreciate significantly when they announce a vaccine.

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-2020

Edited July 10, 2020 by travelhound

[TNcruising02]

2 minutes ago, travelhound said:

According to this article, they may start manufacturing the vaccine before the approval at the end of the year.  That said, this is probably the most optimistic scenario, but the stock market doesn't care, because it is forward looking by 6 to 12 months.  CCL will appreciate significantly when they announce a vaccine.

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biontech-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-2020

I agree.  Once there is a solid plan in sight, I think the travel stocks will rise quickly.

[Computer Nerd]

20 hours ago, travelhound said:

Yup, I was surprised that Carnival would start in Europe.  I always thought they would resume operations in the Caribbean.

Aida is a German cruise line that happens to be owned by Carnival Corp. I believe each cruise line is making the decision as to whether to sail or not, not the corporation.

[drsel]

According to CNBC:

"Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August.

The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%"
CNBC’s Seema Modi reports

[coevan]

1 hour ago, Computer Nerd said:

Aida is a German cruise line that happens to be owned by Carnival Corp. I believe each cruise line is making the decision as to whether to sail or not, not the corporation.

  Corporations make the decisions on their cruise lines, not the individual ships

[travelhound]

2 hours ago, drsel said:

According to CNBC:

"Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August.

The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%"
CNBC’s Seema Modi reports
 

Yup, and there is more good news on the vaccine development.

 

https://www.iheart.com/content/2020-07-10-maryland-man-may-be-first-person-successfully-vaccinated-against-covid-19/

[Computer Nerd]

2 hours ago, coevan said:

  Corporations make the decisions on their cruise lines, not the individual ships

??? What ???

 

Never said anything about individual ships. Aida (cruise line) has decided to restart sailing out of Germany. Carnival Corp isn't making that decision (though they may have approved it), Aida, the cruise line did. Have no idea what position you are trying to convey.

[coevan]

13 minutes ago, Computer Nerd said:

Have no idea what position you are trying to convey.

 

 

I have no idea what this means? Like Lotus position? 

[SDPadreFan]

23 hours ago, coevan said:

  unfortunately not how it works, once the announcement of a vaccine, you have another year of testing and approval. 

 

Actually - there are 3 vaccines that are already in Phase III (widespread human testing) or getting ready to start (Phase II completed). The New York Times has an entire section (non paywall type) that covers every single type of vaccine development and what Phase trial they are in. Two of the Phase III trials are from U.S. Based companies. Once one of the Phase III tests are completed and the results look fairly safe and effective. The FDA will probably grant an emergency approval for that vaccine. The other Phase III vaccine is the one being developed out of Oxford University in GB.

 

And there is one vaccine that has actually gotten approval (in China). But it's a very limited approval and only members of the Chinese military can get it. They skipped Phase III and approved the vaccine after Phase II. The Chinese military are the guinea pigs being used as their Phase III substitution (probably lower ranked conscripts).

 

Here is the New York Times link to their vaccine tracker.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

 

Update - looks like there are now 4 vaccines in Phase III testing.

Edited July 11, 2020 by SDPadreFan

[pc_load_letter]

Kicking myself for buying at $24. If you purchased at it's low of 7$, you've now doubled your money. Love me some capitolism!

[Joe817]

12 minutes ago, SDPadreFan said:

 

Actually - there are 3 vaccines that are already in Phase III (widespread human testing) or getting ready to start (Phase II completed). The New York Times has an entire section (non paywall type) that covers every single type of vaccine development and what Phase trial they are in. Two of the Phase III trials are from U.S. Based companies. Once one of the Phase III tests are completed and the results look fairly safe and effective. The FDA will probably grant an emergency approval for that vaccine. The other Phase III vaccine is the one being developed out of Oxford University in GB.

 

And there is one vaccine that has actually gotten approval (in China). But it's a very limited approval and only members of the Chinese military can get it. They skipped Phase III and approved the vaccine after Phase II. The Chinese military are the guinea pigs being used as their Phase III substitution (probably lower ranked conscripts).

 

Here is the New York Times link to their vaccine tracker.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

 

Update - looks like there are now 4 vaccines in Phase III testing.

VERY good info SDPF! Thanks for posting! 👍

[SDPadreFan]

Here are some of the important cliff notes

 

"A vaccine in development by the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is based on a chimpanzee adenovirus called ChAdOx1. The vaccine is in a Phase II/III trial in England and Phase III trials in Brazil and South Africa. The project may deliver emergency vaccines by October. In June, AstraZeneca said their total manufacturing capacity stands at two billion doses."

 

"The Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine was developed in the early 1900s as a protection against tuberculosis. The Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia is conducting a Phase III trial, and several other trials are underway to see if the vaccine partly protects against the coronavirus."

 

"The German company BioNTech has entered into collaborations with Pfizer, based in New York, and the Chinese drug maker Fosun Pharma to develop their mRNA vaccine. On July 1, they announced that all the volunteers for their Phase I/II trial produced antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, while some experienced moderate side effects such as sleep disturbances and sore arms. In an interview, Pfizer’s CEO said that he hoped his company could begin delivering vaccines in October, providing hundreds of millions of doses by the end of 2020, and then up to a billion by the end of 2021."

 

"On June 30, the American company Inovio announced they had interim Phase I data on their DNA-based vaccine. They found no serious adverse effects, and measured an immune response in 34 out of 36 volunteers. They plan to start Phase II/III trials this summer."

 

"Maryland-based Novavax has developed a way to stick proteins onto microscopic particles. They’ve created vaccines for a number of different diseases using this platform, and their flu vaccine finished Phase III trials in March. The company launched trials for a Covid-19 vaccine in May, and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations has invested $384 million in the vaccine. On July 6, Novavax announced a U.S. government award of $1.6 billion to support clinical trials and manufacturing. If the trials succeed, Novavax expects to deliver 100 million doses for use in the United States by the first quarter of 2021. Plants in Europe and Asia would be able to satisfy more of the world’s demand. "

 

 

[travelhound]

1 hour ago, pc_load_letter said:

Kicking myself for buying at $24. If you purchased at it's low of 7$, you've now doubled your money. Love me some capitolism!

I wouldn't worry, CCL will probably hit $50 when they fully recover from this crisis.  That said, it will take some time, maybe 2-3 years.