CCL stock dips below 40

[TNcruising02]

2 hours ago, travelhound said:

I wouldn't worry, CCL will probably hit $50 when they fully recover from this crisis.  That said, it will take some time, maybe 2-3 years.

I think it will hit $50 again someday too.  Although this virus seems like it will last forever, it will be just a blip in time.

[coevan]

you're right the virus will last until people decide they want to pay attention, our cavalier attitude will get us back to stay at home orders soon

[chipmaster]

58 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

I think it will hit $50 again someday too.  Although this virus seems like it will last forever, it will be just a blip in time.

 

You are better off betting on some tech names to make money than CCL, LOL

[travelhound]

16 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:

I think it will hit $50 again someday too.  Although this virus seems like it will last forever, it will be just a blip in time.

Yup, if you're looking for a quick pop in stock, I think it will hit $30 within a month after they announce a vaccine.

[PhillyFan33579]

8 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Yup, if you're looking for a quick pop in stock, I think it will hit $30 within a month after they announce a vaccine.

What if they never announce a vaccine? I don’t mean to pick on you, but it is amazing how many people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed for this current virus. Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a strong possibility that the efficacy rate will not be very high.  

[travelhound]

5 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

What if they never announce a vaccine? I don’t mean to pick on you, but it is amazing how many people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed for this current virus. Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a strong possibility that the efficacy rate will not be very high.  

That's why it's called a bet.  Don't put all your money on the same stock.  That said, this is a very good way to bet on a successful vaccine.  Most of the bad news is already built into the stock, so your risk/reward dynamic is favorable.

[PhillyFan33579]

21 minutes ago, travelhound said:

That's why it's called a bet.  Don't put all your money on the same stock.  That said, this is a very good way to bet on a successful vaccine.  Most of the bad news is already built into the stock, so your risk/reward dynamic is favorable.

I do agree with your point that the development of an effective vaccine would be a good thing for CCL stock. 

[TNcruising02]

2 hours ago, travelhound said:

That's why it's called a bet.  Don't put all your money on the same stock.  That said, this is a very good way to bet on a successful vaccine.  Most of the bad news is already built into the stock, so your risk/reward dynamic is favorable.

I agree. There are several potential vaccines in the trial stages and I feel like at least one of them will someday become effective.  Even if that were not to happen, I feel like the virus will either run its course or mutate to a less dangerous virus.  Anyway, I am betting that things will get better.  Stocks are a risk and a betting game.  For me, it's extremely low risk with a large potential gain.

[sfaaa]

6 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

What if they never announce a vaccine? I don’t mean to pick on you, but it is amazing how many people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed for this current virus. Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a strong possibility that the efficacy rate will not be very high.  

The world will adapt and learn to live with it much like HIV, cancer, Alzheimer and other incurable diseases and sickness.

[MsTabbyKats]

9 hours ago, travelhound said:

That's why it's called a bet.  Don't put all your money on the same stock.  That said, this is a very good way to bet on a successful vaccine.  Most of the bad news is already built into the stock, so your risk/reward dynamic is favorable.

I made a very quick small profit on CCL...but if I wanted to invest long term I'd get a travel related mutual fund.  The "bad news risk/reward" is already there but I believe in diversification "because you never know".

[Castaway Cowgirl]

18 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

What if they never announce a vaccine? I don’t mean to pick on you, but it is amazing how many people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed for this current virus. Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a strong possibility that the efficacy rate will not be very high.  

The flu vaccine only has from 40-60% efficacy rate, which for me means it is not effective.  When they do come up with a covid-19 vaccine, it will probably be equally ineffective.  They have not come up with a coronavirus vaccine before which makes me think it is not an easy thing to do.  But I think the vaccine is like a placebo and will make everyone feel better regardless of efficacy— similar to the flu shot.  In that way it doesn’t really matter how effective it is.

[PhillyFan33579]

2 hours ago, Castaway Cowgirl said:

The flu vaccine only has from 40-60% efficacy rate, which for me means it is not effective.  When they do come up with a covid-19 vaccine, it will probably be equally ineffective.  They have not come up with a coronavirus vaccine before which makes me think it is not an easy thing to do.  But I think the vaccine is like a placebo and will make everyone feel better regardless of efficacy— similar to the flu shot.  In that way it doesn’t really matter how effective it is.

I agree with everything you said except your last sentence. If a vaccine is developed, I think it’s effectiveness will matter greatly to the CDC, which directly impacts the cruise industry. 

[travelhound]

4 hours ago, Castaway Cowgirl said:

The flu vaccine only has from 40-60% efficacy rate, which for me means it is not effective.  When they do come up with a covid-19 vaccine, it will probably be equally ineffective.  They have not come up with a coronavirus vaccine before which makes me think it is not an easy thing to do.  But I think the vaccine is like a placebo and will make everyone feel better regardless of efficacy— similar to the flu shot.  In that way it doesn’t really matter how effective it is.

Yup, perception is reality, as is true with most things in life. Most importantly it will flatten the fear  🙂

 

[travelhound]

13 hours ago, MsTabbyKats said:

I made a very quick small profit on CCL...but if I wanted to invest long term I'd get a travel related mutual fund.  The "bad news risk/reward" is already there but I believe in diversification "because you never know".

Good point, it depends on how much money you plan to invest.  For a 6-12 month trade, I like to use individual stocks.  You will get a much faster pop.

[NightOne]

On 7/7/2020 at 7:17 PM, PhillyFan33579 said:

I don’t currently own Carnival stock, but from a business perspective it would be irresponsible for Carnival, or any cruise line for that matter, to continue to offer OBC to share holders. Of course history is filled with companies who are no longer around because they made bad decisions that were obviously poor even at the time they were made. 

 

This is utterly ridiculous.

 

If all it took was Carnival giving someone $100 to get them to book a cruise and pay the regular cruise fare they would do that all day long.

[NightOne]

On 7/12/2020 at 9:29 AM, PhillyFan33579 said:

What if they never announce a vaccine? I don’t mean to pick on you, but it is amazing how many people on this site think it is a foregone conclusion that an effective vaccine will be developed for this current virus. Even if a vaccine is developed, there is a strong possibility that the efficacy rate will not be very high.  

 

Then I guess that we'll have to admit that we are dealing with something with a worldwide death rate of .0073205128% and move on accordingly.

 

Whereas approximately .2294871795% will die from heart disease/stroke/cardiovascular issues each year. (31x COVID thus far this year)

 

and then maybe we'll figure out that we should focus on protecting that vulnerable .0073205128% of the worldwide population while not destroying the lives of the other 99.9926794872%

 

😞

Edited July 13, 2020 by NightOne

[PhillyFan33579]

8 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

This is utterly ridiculous.

 

If all it took was Carnival giving someone $100 to get them to book a cruise and pay the regular cruise fare they would do that all day long.

If you haven’t heard, cruise lines are not in great financial shape. Things will only get worse if the CDC extends the no sail order well into 2021 as I expect. Simply giving away $100 to stockholders is not a sound financial decision based on their current financial situation, which gets worse every day. 

 

If your comment was true, Carnival would always offer a $100 OBC with all their fares. Since they don’t do this, they apparently don’t think the same way you do. 

[TNcruising02]

3 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Then I guess that we'll have to admit that we are dealing with something with a worldwide death rate of .0073205128% and move on accordingly.

 

Whereas approximately .2294871795% will die from heart disease/stroke/cardiovascular issues or each year. (31x COVID thus far this year)

 

and then maybe we'll figure out that we should focus on protecting that vulnerable .0073205128% of the worldwide population while not destroying the lives of the other 99.9926794872%

 

😞

Exactly!

[NightOne]

Just now, PhillyFan33579 said:

If you haven’t heard, cruise lines are not in great financial shape. Things will only get worse if the CDC extends the no sail order well into 2021 as I expect. Simply giving away $100 to stockholders is not a sound financial decision based on their current financial situation, which gets worse every day. 

 

If your comment was true, Carnival would always offer a $100 OBC with all their fares. Since they don’t do this, they apparently don’t think the same way you do. 

 

They have free OBC sales all the time. (and other sales) - Almost all businesses have sales. (even Apple)

 

I don't know what business school you went to but most teach that giving a nickel to get back a dollar is a good thing. 🙂

[PhillyFan33579]

2 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Then I guess that we'll have to admit that we are dealing with something with a worldwide death rate of .0073205128% and move on accordingly.

 

Whereas approximately .2294871795% will die from heart disease/stroke/cardiovascular issues or each year. (31x COVID thus far this year)

 

and then maybe we'll figure out that we should focus on protecting that vulnerable .0073205128% of the worldwide population while not destroying the lives of the other 99.9926794872%

 

😞

I won’t waste my time trying to discuss this issue with you since you are obviously not living in reality based on this comment. 

[NightOne]

Just now, PhillyFan33579 said:

I won’t waste my time trying to discuss this issue with you since you are obviously not living in reality based on this comment. 

 

Those are the numbers. Not the ones the news is blowing up about the number of cases rising and all that hype but the actual % of people worldwide who have died from this thing.

 

That IS reality ... if you want to live in some artificially created "news" spin that is your choice but that doesn't change the numbers.

 

Bottom line is this is only fatal to a teeny tiny percent of the population and not the masses.

 

 

[PhillyFan33579]

Just now, NightOne said:

 

Those are the numbers. Not the ones the news is blowing up about the number of cases rising and all that hype but the actual % of people worldwide who have died from this thing.

 

That IS reality ... if you want to live in some artificially created "news" spin that is your choice but that doesn't change the numbers.

 

Bottom line is this is only fatal to a teeny tiny percent of the population and not the masses.

 

 

Let’s say your numbers are right. If we go with that premise, we would have to conclude that this world is filled with scientists, doctors, politicians, etc. who have no clue what they are doing. Because  if your numbers are correct, you would have to be an idiot to react the way people have reacted to this virus around the world. 

[coevan]

7 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Those are the numbers. Not the ones the news is blowing up about the number of cases rising and all that hype but the actual % of people worldwide who have died from this thing.

 

That IS reality ... if you want to live in some artificially created "news" spin that is your choice but that doesn't change the numbers.

 

Bottom line is this is only fatal to a teeny tiny percent of the population and not the masses.

 

 

Thanks Don

[NightOne]

2 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Let’s say your numbers are right. If we go with that premise, we would have to conclude that this world is filled with scientists, doctors, politicians, etc. who have no clue what they are doing. Because  if your numbers are correct, you would have to be an idiot to react the way people have reacted to this virus around the world. 

 

Don't trust my math. Simply Google search the world population, number of worldwide COVID deaths, and do some simple division.

 

And they're not even counting the deaths accurately so the % could be even smaller.

 

A little fear and panic is all it takes to start a hysterical over reaction.

 

 

[NightOne]

5 minutes ago, coevan said:

Thanks Don

 

My name is not "Don" but ... um you're welcome ... I guess