RCL Stock

[JMorris271]

1 hour ago, shipshape sam said:

They are only as good as their last news. 

 

For sure they are up with selling over 8% of their stock.  Market sees that someone willing to infuse that amount of money as a good sign.  Not sure of share price of sale, but think it was around $8-9/share and that is cash to them. When we sell/buy it is between us. They also have, projected, the longest run rate(cash run rate) without any revenues of the big 3 - about 12 months.  RCL is about 8 months.

 

I sure hope they are not using/counting on customer deposits in their cash flow calculation right now.  

I think the Ponzi game went something like that

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, shipshape sam said:

CCL stock dropped from approx. 11 to 8 within 3 days of publicly  announcing elimination of dividend and it had been anticipated for weeks, even stressed by analysis to eliminate it as early as 2 weeks prior to company announcement. For sure there was other news too, so not sure how you can ID specific stock reaction to specific action taken with so much going on each day at these companies.

 

Hope you are right though.

When companies sell stock through secondary offering the price is usually below current market.  The more stock they are selling and the more desperate they are the larger the discount.  It is also not unusual for Wall St firms to sell stock short at time secondary offering is announced and then buy back cheaper by participating in the offering.  

[Baron Barracuda]

Note that Saudi's reported their 8.2% stake was established in late March, so ahead of the CCL debt and equity offerings.  Since shares were purchased in open market and not through new issuance CCL received no new cash.  They did benefit in a non-financial way from the Saudi vote of confidence.

[taglovestocruise]

RCL is up another 9% today.  CCL and NCL also jumped but not as much. 

[steveru621]

On 4/4/2020 at 2:52 AM, grandgeezer said:

 

That was 2009, what has that got to do with what's happening in 2020.

Did everyone forget when the stock was $135? That was in 2019, at least that is relevant to what's going on now.

 

Fair enough, but that $5 was when they were fully operating with paying passengers.

 

I suspect it will hit single digits again.

 

At the very least, all that debt will force them to issue more stock, depressing the value.

[taglovestocruise]

 Royal Caribbean Price Target & Analyst Ratings

Showing:

All Analyst Consensus & Price Target 

Best Performing Analyst Consensus & Price TargetPremium 

Analyst Rating Consensus

Moderate Buy

Based on 15 Analyst Ratings

---

• 6 Buy
• 7 Hold
• 2 Sell

Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering stock ratings for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months (by analysts ranked 0 to 5 stars).

Analyst Price Target on RCL

$99.83

▲ (168.72% Upside)

Based on 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months. The average price target is $99.83 with a high forecast of $165.00 and a low forecast of $25.00. The average price target represents a 168.72%increase from the last price of $37.15.

Past 12 Months     Next 12 MonthsApr2019JulOctJan2020Apr$22$60.75$99.50$138.25$177Apr2021

 

Average
$99.83

Low
$25.00

High
$165.00

Detailed list of analyst forecasts

[steveru621]

22 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

 Royal Caribbean Price Target & Analyst Ratings

Showing:

All Analyst Consensus & Price Target 

Best Performing Analyst Consensus & Price TargetPremium 

Analyst Rating Consensus

Moderate Buy

Based on 15 Analyst Ratings

---

• 6 Buy
• 7 Hold
• 2 Sell

Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering stock ratings for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months (by analysts ranked 0 to 5 stars).

Analyst Price Target on RCL

$99.83

▲ (168.72% Upside)

Based on 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months. The average price target is $99.83 with a high forecast of $165.00 and a low forecast of $25.00. The average price target represents a 168.72%increase from the last price of $37.15.

Past 12 Months     Next 12 MonthsApr2019JulOctJan2020Apr$22$60.75$99.50$138.25$177Apr2021

 

Average
$99.83

Low
$25.00

High
$165.00

Detailed list of analyst forecasts

 

 

They were pretty much the same thing about Goldman Sachs in 2008.  If analysts were always correct they would be billionaires.  CFRA (Standard and Poors) rates them SELL.  

 

Not saying you or they are wrong, but the current uncertainty leaves a lot to be desired.  All these deserted ships will take some time to get into position and staff up.

 

If the stock gets back to the $10's I would take a flyer.

[nelblu]

Interesting article by Market Watch posted today,

 

Shares of cruise operators rallied again Wednesday, with Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, 11.92% leading the way higher in afternoon trading. Royal Caribbean's stock ran up 10.4%, after rocketing 37.6% the over the previous two days; Carnival Corp. shares CCL, 5.93% surged 5.0 after soaring 41.8% over the previous three sessions; and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s stock NCLH, 6.44% hiked up 4.6% after shooting 31.1% higher the previous three sessions. The gains comes as the S&P 500 SPX, 3.38% rallies 3.0%. Instinet analyst Harry Curtis said based on his new cash burn and recovery forecasts for the cruise industry through 2023, he believes all three companies have enough liquidity and borrowing capacity to survive near-zero revenue through the first quarter of 2021. "Many times we've been asked about bankruptcy, and we believe it to be low," Curtis wrote in a note to clients. He expects a "modest" recovery for the industry to begin in the second half of 2020, with the first quarter of 2021 the possible "turning point." Curtis said there may be 70% to 90% upside in the stocks over the next three years.

[zekekelso]

People say it's impossible to know if the price is going up or down... but I've got a secret trick I'm going to let you people in on. If I decide to buy some RCL stock, I'll let everyone here know a day ahead of time. Plenty of opportunity to dump your shares. Because I can pretty much guarantee that as soon as I buy in, the price is going down, down, down.

[FlyingDutchman15]

Have you read the latest CDC New Travel Restrictions for Cruise Lines Passengers in USA. !!!

[Ocean Boy]

How this stock is over 42 right now has me scratching my head.

[TravelerThom]

21 hours ago, taglovestocruise said:

Based on 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Caribbean in the last 3 months

3 months ago I doubt that stock analysts had even heard of COVID-19. Any analysis done earlier than March is useless, and ones more than a couple of weeks ago are next to useless. Without dates for those 15 analysts reports, I would ignore this article. 

[nelblu]

1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

How this stock is over 42 right now has me scratching my head.

I'm amazed also.  Any unusual/positive news out there.

[mpk]

On 4/6/2020 at 11:25 AM, taglovestocruise said:

Carnival, Norwegian cruise line and Royal Caribbean all jumped 18% - 25% todays as the Saudi's bought almost $400 million dollars of Carnival stock.  Good chance they won't lose money. 

 

On 4/6/2020 at 9:07 PM, The_Big_M said:

The fact there are new investors doesn't change the risk of the outcome.

 

Presumably, they did their due diligence before buying 43.5 million shares of CCL.  I would guess they hired the best of the best to evaluate the risks before plowing that much money into the cruise industry.  That is a pretty strong vote of confidence that cruising won't disappear like some on CC have suggested.

[divepal]

20 hours ago, zekekelso said:

People say it's impossible to know if the price is going up or down... but I've got a secret trick I'm going to let you people in on. If I decide to buy some RCL stock, I'll let everyone here know a day ahead of time. Plenty of opportunity to dump your shares. Because I can pretty much guarantee that as soon as I buy in, the price is going down, down, down.

🤣🤣 That's about our luck as well.

[LMaxwell]

At some point the fundamentals have to kick back in.  Prices rocketing up on the news that they can cash burn through 2020 is odd, to say the least.  

[bigeck]

Uk just got another 3 weeks lockdown

Not sure if that will affect shares

[shipshape sam]

One aspect I think investors may be missing.  Will consumers come back in sufficient numbers to allow for the aggressive growth cruise lines had plan and are 'banking' on.

 

I know and have talked to a number of people, and cruising is not on their radar anymore ( would guess at least till 2021).

 

We had a venture capitalist / investor in our company once tell us of another investment they made.  Long story short, they talked to all kinds of potential customers about the companies products/services and made the investment.  They forgot to ask a price range they would pay for the products/services and the business plan failed to deliver and their investment value dropped like a rock, extending their exit date strategy.

 

I do not think customers are going just jump back into cruising. Not sure there is not going to have discounting to get numbers of customers to fill the ships.

 

I do hope the cruise lines get back to 'normal' as soon as possible.  Did read where bookings are strong for 2021.

Edited April 9, 2020 by shipshape sam

[Ocean Boy]

17 minutes ago, shipshape sam said:

One aspect I think investors may be missing.  Will consumers come back in sufficient numbers to allow for the aggressive growth cruise lines had plan and are 'banking' on.

 

I know and have talked to a number of people, and cruising is not on their radar anymore ( would guess at least till 2021).

 

We had a venture capitalist / investor in our company once tell us of another investment they made.  Long story short, they talked to all kinds of potential customers about the companies products/services and made the investment.  They forgot to ask a price range they would pay for the products/services and the business plan failed to deliver and their investment value dropped like a rock, extending their exit date strategy.

 

I do not think customers are going just jump back into cruising. Not sure there is not going to have discounting to get numbers of customers to fill the ships.

 

I do hope the cruise lines get back to 'normal' as soon as possible.  Did read where bookings are strong for 2021.

I wonder how much of that is displaced cruisers with FCCs that need to be used.

[Blizzard54]

One of the reasons that bookings are strong for 2021 is people are using th FCC's that are being used from cancelled cruises.

 

I believe that many of those that are going into the cruise stocks are looking very long term as in 3-5 years.  

We have been cruising for 42 years.  In the last 4 years we have been averaging around 160 nights per year.  We are in our mid 60's so have a greater risk if we contract Covid-19.  We were never overly concerned with Noro but we are concerned with this.    We currently have 95 nights booked later in this year but I am not sure we will take them if not cancelled.  We are not if we will go back until there is a vaccine.    At some point we will go back.

 

[Ocean Boy]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

One of the reasons that bookings are strong for 2021 is people are using th FCC's that are being used from cancelled cruises.

 

I believe that many of those that are going into the cruise stocks are looking very long term as in 3-5 years.  

We have been cruising for 42 years.  In the last 4 years we have been averaging around 160 nights per year.  We are in our mid 60's so have a greater risk if we contract Covid-19.  We were never overly concerned with Noro but we are concerned with this.    We currently have 95 nights booked later in this year but I am not sure we will take them if not cancelled.  We are not if we will go back until there is a vaccine.    At some point we will go back.

 

And you should view them differently. There is a big difference between abdominal cramping with diarrhea and pneumonia.

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

I thought this was about the stocks?

[Ocean Boy]

3 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I thought this was about the stocks?

$41.25 in extended hours. Feel better now?

[shipshape sam]

15 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

$41.25 in extended hours. Feel better now?

No as I sold all my stock at 47 about a week or so ago. Won't hurt my feelings if it keeps going higher though.  

[wayne_trisha]

On 4/8/2020 at 6:27 AM, irzero said:

 

So i read that as a brand new ship with just staff onboard has 217 case already? 

 

Glad i bailed on this stock but sad to see the damage that might be caused longer term as i do like cruising. That said maybe RCL might appreciate its loyal customers more and provide better experiences rather than just upping prices all the time for providing less

Bailed? When? It doubled in two weeks. Operations halted, no end to operations halted in sight, NOT GETTING BAILOUT MONEY, completely unknown how long it takes to get back to something resembling normal, but hey it fricking DOUBLED in price. Please write the Fed and say thank you for saving this company, completely bailing out any company that even knows what the stock market is, and destroying our economy.