RCL Stock

[Coralc]

6 hours ago, bigeck said:

Uk just got another 3 weeks lockdown

Not sure if that will affect shares

 

Until May 3rd here in California. 

[gc]

4 hours ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I thought this was about the stocks?

 

That would be the symptoms one displays as the stock value drops 

[The_Big_M]

10 hours ago, mpk said:

 

 

Presumably, they did their due diligence before buying 43.5 million shares of CCL.  I would guess they hired the best of the best to evaluate the risks before plowing that much money into the cruise industry.  That is a pretty strong vote of confidence that cruising won't disappear like some on CC have suggested.

 

So they got the smartest guys in the room? Cool. Glad that's all settled then.

[The_Big_M]

Exactly. They've taken a shotgun approach, picking up cheap shares - that are related to their main export, oil. Nothing more sophisticated than that.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-take-big-stakes-european-oil-companies-11586382353

 

Or of course, you can justify it with the "smartest guys in the room" theory... though we now how that ended up.

[soloadventurer]

After the CDC news SELL SELL SELL bank the profits  - Rcl & Col will be haemorrhaging money in refunds   

[taglovestocruise]

9 minutes ago, soloadventurer said:

After the CDC news SELL SELL SELL bank the profits  - Rcl & Col will be haemorrhaging money in refunds   

Maybe a TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  would be a better approach. A lot of us are up 75% to 100% in the last two weeks. I put a $1 trailing stop loss on RCL, NCL and CCL on Thursday. No brainer on online accounts with 0 commission.  Wait a day or so after the pull back and get back in for more profits and do it again.  Usb raised the 12 month target on RCL to $84 and gave it a buy rating earlier this week.  Definitely not for the risk adverseive or anyone with a sensitive guilt complex.

[Jimbo]

1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Maybe a TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  would be a better approach. A lot of us are up 75% to 100% in the last two weeks. I put a $1 trailing stop loss on RCL, NCL and CCL on Thursday. No brainer on online accounts with 0 commission.  Wait a day or so after the pull back and get back in for more profits and do it again.  Usb raised the 12 month target on RCL to $84 and gave it a buy rating earlier this week.  Definitely not for the risk adverseive or anyone with a sensitive guilt complex.

Explain more how a TRAILING STOP LOSS works please? what number on the stop loss did you put? $$$ For you might be good to sell now and get back into buying again when it tanks.

Edited April 10, 2020 by Jimbo

[Ourusualbeach]

1 hour ago, taglovestocruise said:

Maybe a TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  TRAILING STOP LOSS  would be a better approach. A lot of us are up 75% to 100% in the last two weeks. I put a $1 trailing stop loss on RCL, NCL and CCL on Thursday. No brainer on online accounts with 0 commission.  Wait a day or so after the pull back and get back in for more profits and do it again.  Usb raised the 12 month target on RCL to $84 and gave it a buy rating earlier this week.  Definitely not for the risk adverseive or anyone with a sensitive guilt complex.

I’m actually wondering if the market has already reacted to the news.  The stock was trading around $42 most of the day Thursday then took a quick dive to $37 at about 2:00 then back up to $40.  I suspect that information about the CDC release was released in the afternoon

[Jimbo]

3 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I’m actually wondering if the market has already reacted to the news.  The stock was trading around $42 most of the day Thursday then took a quick dive to $37 at about 2:00 then back up to $40.  I suspect that information about the CDC release was released in the afternoon

Good Point, saw that too. I'm thinking Monday though it will dive much lower.

[Ourusualbeach]

Just now, Jimbo said:

Good Point, saw that too. I'm thinking Monday though it will dive much lower.

If the dive was in relation to the CDC report then I’m not sure it will drop anymore.  A lot has already been factored into the share price and I don’t think that not cruising for the next 2-3 months is anything that surprised anyone...it just made it official. 

 

[taglovestocruise]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

Explain more how a TRAILING STOP LOSS works please? what number on the stop loss did you put? $$$ For you might be good to sell now and get back into buying again when it tanks.

I use Schwab which is 0 commission for online trades. Schwab is slightly different than the example. The three cruise line stocks have a $1.00 trail. It is a tight order but I am not greedy. It becomes a market order after triggering and once again greed is factored out.  

With a trailing-stop order, the stop price trails the bid price of the stock as it moves higher. The stop price essentially self-adjusts and remains below the market price by the number of points or the percentage that you specify, as long as the stock is moving higher. Once the stock begins to move lower, the stop price freezes at the highest level it reaches.

In other words, the stop price can move higher indefinitely, but it can never move lower. If the stock falls enough to reach the stop price, the order is triggered and sent to the marketplace. The primary benefit of a trailing-stop order versus a regular stop order is that it doesn't have to be canceled and re-entered as the price of the stock increases. As mentioned above, this order is held on a server until the stop price (trigger) is reached.

Example: Assume you placed a 5% trailing-stop order on a recently purchased stock position. As the stock increases in price, if at any point the bid retraces (falls) by 5%, a market order will automatically be entered for the quantity you specified. For example, if you entered this order when the stock price was $100 per share, if the bid price increases 9% to 109 (assuming it never pulled back 5% on its way up to 109) and then drops 5% to 103.55, the order will be sent. The effective change from the time the trailing-stop was placed until the order was triggered would be 3.55% above where you originally placed the order. Since a trailing-stop order becomes a market order when triggered, it behaves very similar to a standard stop order. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by taglovestocruise

[ano]

1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said:

I’m actually wondering if the market has already reacted to the news.  The stock was trading around $42 most of the day Thursday then took a quick dive to $37 at about 2:00 then back up to $40.  I suspect that information about the CDC release was released in the afternoon

Any announcement that occurs during the trading day is taken into account before you finish reading the news alert. If the announcement occurs after the market closes, the news is taken into account in after-hours trading, and you will see the price reaction the next day when the market opens.

[Ocean Boy]

What did the CDC say? Somehow I missed it.

[ano]

2 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

What did the CDC say? Somehow I missed it.

No cruising to US ports for 100.  This is probably conservative. I think September realistically. 

[Ocean Boy]

16 minutes ago, ano said:

No cruising to US ports for 100.  This is probably conservative. I think September realistically. 

Thanks, I just found the announcement. Do you know if it was made before or after the market closed?

 

Edit: I just found that too... late Thursday. And yet it still closed over 40 today. I keep shaking my head. I feel a headache coming on.

[Ourusualbeach]

40 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Thanks, I just found the announcement. Do you know if it was made before or after the market closed?

 

Edit: I just found that too... late Thursday. And yet it still closed over 40 today. I keep shaking my head. I feel a headache coming on.

But it was on their website the day before when they originally had it at 120 days.  It was then changed.  I believe that the information was out there over the past couple days and the market has already reacted.  Like I said in an earlier post, this just makes it official.  

 

Markets were closed today, you are looking at Thursdays close.  I kept doing that this morning....what’s going on the sticks not moving at all. 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[Ocean Boy]

10 minutes ago, Ourusualbeach said:

But it was on their website the day before when they originally had it at 120 days.  It was then changed.  I believe that the information was out there over the past couple days and the market has already reacted.  Like I said in an earlier post, this just makes it official.  

 

Markets were closed today, you are looking at Thursdays close.  I kept doing that this morning....what’s going on the sticks not moving at all. 

Thanks, I didn't realize that the market was closed today.

[Ourusualbeach]

Dividends will be suspended as part of the arrangement that Royal has made with the financing of Anthem and Spectrum.  They have taken advantage of a 12 month debt holiday that will save them 200 million.  

 

On April 8, 2020, we amended the export-credit backed loan facilities incurred to finance Anthem of the Seas and Spectrum of the Seas, respectively, in order to incorporate the benefits of a 12-month debt holiday initiative being offered by Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft (“Hermes”), the official export credit agency of Germany, to the cruise industry (the “Debt Holiday”). The intention of this initiative is to provide interim debt service and financial covenant relief during the current global health crisis to cruise-line borrowers with respect to their Hermes-guaranteed financings.
Under the terms of each amendment, the lenders have made available to us a new tranche of each loan (the “Deferred Tranche”), the proceeds of which will be used to repay any principal amortization payments due on such facilities between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021 (the “Deferral Period”). The Deferred Tranche will be repayable in eight equal semi-annual installments between April 2021 and October 2024. Interest on the Deferred Tranche will accrue at the same floating rate that applies to the existing loan (LIBOR plus 1.30% per annum, in the case of Anthem and LIBOR plus 0.95% per annum, in the case of Spectrum). Interest is payable during the Deferral Period.
The lenders have also agreed that, during the Deferral Period, a breach of the financial covenants will not trigger a mandatory prepayment under the Loan Agreements.
In the event we take certain actions while the Deferred Tranche is outstanding, we will be required to prepay the outstanding balance of the Deferred Tranche. These actions include the payment of dividends, the repurchase of stock, and the issuance of debt or equity other than for liquidity. These restrictions are subject to customary carveouts such as, in the case of new debt, debt incurred to finance new ships.

[ano]

4 hours ago, ano said:

No cruising to US ports for 100.  This is probably conservative. I think September realistically. 

Today Burning Man was cancelled. It was scheduled for Aug. 30 to Sept. 7th.  That tells you groups won't be forming for cruises before then. 

[Coralc]

I didn't know what a Tranche was. 

 

Definition of tranche

 

: a division or portion of a pool or wholespecifically : an issue of bonds derived from a pooling of like obligations (such as securitized mortgage debt) that is differentiated from other issues especially by maturity or rate of return

[soloadventurer]

A number of problems i see on the horizon.

 

1/ if it was 100 days fair enough in my view it could be a longer - JMHO i believe we'll be lucky if our cruise in December goes ahead ?

 

2/ Logistics of getting staff / food / cleaning etc up and running after lockdown ?

 

3/ Repayment of an loans etc ( im hearing CCL is paying  11.5% ) ?

 

4/ Will cruisers return in their numbers as before - if not will RC be forced into big discounts to entice cruisers back ?

 

5/ Will people who have never cruised before believe cruising is far to risky and holiday elsewhere ?

 

To recap i believe the stock is well overpriced given the massive uncertainties at present. 

[abbflex]

If gets back down to $25 now after latest 100 days news , Im buying. 

[BP99]

15 hours ago, soloadventurer said:

After the CDC news SELL SELL SELL bank the profits  - Rcl & Col will be haemorrhaging money in refunds   

They won't be haemorrhaging money in refunds.

They aren't giving any refunds. Read the boards!!

[soloadventurer]

53 minutes ago, BP99 said:

They won't be haemorrhaging money in refunds.

They aren't giving any refunds. Read the boards!!

 

Well if you're entitled to a refund ( i decided on a FCC ) and they aren't providing it. Maybe cruise critic cruisers could start a Class Action against them.

 

Which would add further woe to the share price.

[soloadventurer]

1 hour ago, BP99 said:

They won't be haemorrhaging money in refunds.

They aren't giving any refunds. Read the boards!!

UK 

 

C. cancelling or accepting the cancellation in which case you will receive a refund of all monies you have paid to us within 14 days of such cancellation.

 

Under the Package Travel Regulations 2018, you are entitled to a full cash refund within two weeks of the cancellation becoming apparent. So if you were told on or before 5 March the trip would not be going ahead, then by now you should have had all your money back