Cruising Again.....

[Toofarfromthesea]

8 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

The more one learns of China's "One Road One Belt" policy the more they will be inclined to not support China in any way. Please do some research on this. I understood it generally but had no idea that China invests in struggling countries but demands their previous natural resources and ports as collateral!  Guess who owns the port of Athens? Eyes wide open now!

 

I think they learned the technique from mob loan sharks.

[Markanddonna]

25 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Oh Dear, this is definitely going off topic. Could I persuade you to discuss philosophical issues at the destination forums? Kinda cultural meeting-of-the-minds.

 

For myself, I prefer to arrive at conclusions based on facts. The bottom line... where is it safe to travel and when?

 

 

I apologize for making you uncomfortable, but the  world situation directly relates why I refuse to travel to Cuba, Russia, and China. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Markanddonna

[HappyInVan]

As this is the MSC forum, here's some numbers to think about. Europe's epidemic could end as late as August!

 

"This chart shows which European countries are expected to have the highest coronavirus death tolls"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/uk-will-have-the-most-coronavirus-deaths-in-europe-analysts-predict.html

Edited April 9, 2020 by HappyInVan

[DCGuy64]

9 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

As this is the MSC forum, here's some numbers to think about. Europe's epidemic could end as late as August!

 

"This chart shows which European countries are expected to have the highest coronavirus death tolls"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/uk-will-have-the-most-coronavirus-deaths-in-europe-analysts-predict.html

Thank you for posting the link. I would encourage everyone to have a look at it, in particular because, as we've seen in the US, estimates can vary widely. I just copied the following from the article linked above. IHME, which authored the report, estimates deaths in Britain of 66,000. The numbers below are far lower. Let's hope for the numbers to be low!

 

"However, the IHME’s prediction model has been disputed, with Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London telling The Guardian newspaper that its figures on hospital bed use and deaths were twice as high as they should be.

 

Imperial College London, which has helped shape the U.K. government’s response to the pandemic, estimates that the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in Britain will be between 7,000 and 20,000."

[8420PR]

On 3/19/2020 at 11:32 AM, 8420PR said:

My guess:  MSC's first cruise is from Genoa to Rome, Naples, Palermo and back in the first few week of May.  From Miami by beginning of June to the private islands only.

My new estimate:  MSC first cruise is from Genoa to Rome, Naples, Palermo and back in the first few weeks of June.

[HappyInVan]

Heads up from Laminator in the HAL forum...

 

"CDC extends 'no sail' order for cruise ships ...

 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention extended a "no sail order" Thursday that it imposed last month to help quell the spread of the coronavirus.

 

While the March 14 order was intended as a voluntary measure to stay in place for 30 days, the new one could last longer. 

 

The CDC order states that cruise ships can't board passengers and return to their sailing schedules until one of three events takes place:

 

... Passage of 100 days from the time the new order is published in the Federal Register."

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/04/09/coronavirus-cdc-extends-no-sail-order-cruise-ships/5128291002/

 

So, the CDC's new time horizon is mid-July. 

[Roger88]

On 3/19/2020 at 5:36 PM, travelberlin said:

I think September might be the soonest if things get controlled and a vaccine comes out. Otherwise, I would say in 2021 in Sommer the earliest. Of course I do not have any idea...so all what I have written is speculation.

This is exactly my aim. I am sure that by Autumn the situation will settle and everything will be fine again. Yes, people will still be a little afraid of going anywhere near many other people but at least they will know that people are aware of this desease and know how to fight it.. maybe not win the fight entirely but at least to help you fight it as much as you can. Wishing good luck to all cruise businesses and all the passangers! 

[BermudaBound2014]

To follow up on HappyVan's post, here is the link directly to the CDC no sail order.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html

 

While the CDC did give themselves an out, it sure does looks like we are all grounded until Mid July.  I'm still sticking with my original estimate of late fall.  Monday's market should be a wild ride.

 

[quattrohead]

On 4/7/2020 at 9:22 AM, Beardface said:

 

Don't get me wrong, there are A LOT of things that could have been handled better in the US than it was, and we should have had a handle on this long before we did.

 

But don't forget just how unbelievably badly China bungled this, allowing it to reach epidemic status before they alerted the rest of the planet what was going on.  They knew about it back in November, and by the end of December ordered all research into it destroyed about a week before they went public.  And there are estimates based on sulfur emissions (a byproduct of cremation) in China during this outbreak that they are are likely under reporting the number of cases they had (and possibly still have) by over 40x.  And lets not forget that this all originated in a wet market, the kind of market the rest of the global economy has been begging them to shut down for decades because of fears this exact scenario would play out.

Absolute total bollocks, I know of at least 10 people that had it in December here in the USA. China identified it first, that's all.

[antiq]

For us living in Australia, unlikely travel ban will be lifted in July.  Although the curve seems to be flattening, they will take it slowly to lift restriction.  They will first open interstate travels.

[HappyInVan]

Just watched an interesting interview on PBS. Margaret Hoover runs a show 'Firing Line with Margaret Hoover' and in this episode Season 3 Episode 41 the guest is Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the FDA.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Gottlieb

 

Among the revelations, Dr. Gottlieb's associates were alerted in mid January to the novel coronavirus by reports from Chinese doctors. Like SARS but highly infectious. Dr. Gottlieb made recommendations to the White House in late January. The Coronavirus Task force was formed on January 29 …

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_Coronavirus_Task_Force

 

Dr. Gottlieb seems to be exceptional well informed. He suggested the vaccine would be two years away. In the meantime, he believes that a anti-viral drug might be possible by September.

 

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/

 

 

In addition, an antibody test is available. But, mass testing would not be possible before restrictions are eased in summer.

 

Asked about whether the last eight states should impose social restrictions, Dr. Gottlieb said that Iowa should also lockdown, because it has dense urban populations.

 

 

[Sancho_proudfoot]

We are booked on the Seaview, out of Barcelona on November 13 2020. At the moment we are working on the assumption that it's going ahead.

 

I really hope so; we're managing ok in the lockdown, but have had one family death due to Covid-19.

 

Additionally, just before the shutdown, we had agreed the sale of our house and the purchase of the next one, so we're trying to get that sorted by email etc.

 

We're going to need that cruise come November!

[BermudaBound2014]

@Sancho_proudfoot sorry to hear about your family death due to CoVid. I'm also hopeful November cruises will continue, it does sound like you will need one! Best to you.

[Toofarfromthesea]

20 hours ago, quattrohead said:

Absolute total bollocks, I know of at least 10 people that had it in December here in the USA. China identified it first, that's all.

 

Wow, there was not a test in December yet you KNOW of at least 10 people who had it?  How did you determine it was the Chinese virus and not just a flu in the absence of any testing?

Talk about total bollocks!

[quattrohead]

Symptoms were exactly as described. Low white cell count and lung xray look "odd" but not bronchitis.

Did the CDC test online and it said I probably had it but did not need a test due to not traveling through China or Italy.

There are report's all over about people having it starting in November of last year.

[HappyInVan]

This is not good ...

 

"Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.

 

The possibility that the coronavirus spreads in a mostly stealthy mode among a population of largely young, healthy people showing no symptoms could have major implications for U.S. policy-makers, who are considering how and when to reopen the economy....  "

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-152447944.html

 

 

[8420PR]

On 4/9/2020 at 7:21 PM, 8420PR said:

My new estimate:  MSC first cruise is from Genoa to Rome, Naples, Palermo and back in the first few weeks of June.

I'm getting nervous now. 

 

On the one hand we can see quarantine is having the desired effect, with the virus R0 rate reducing to less than 1 (in countries with an effective testing regime), meaning one infected person infects less than 1 other person and the virus will eventually fizzle out and disappear if this R0 rate can be maintained.  Countries are now able start reducing the quarantine, with the first steps towards normality in combination with enhanced testing and contact tracing.

 

However, the same countries are also setting expectations of no mass gatherings or large community events until August or the end of the year, as well as expectations of not being able to travel abroad on holiday this summer.  I think it is undeniable that countries that closed down early and fully minimized the human cost of this outbreak, and the name of the game now is keeping the transmission rate as low as possible until it is eliminated.   I suspect cruising is both low down on the list of priorities to reopen, as well as high up on the potential risks.

[UPNYGuy]

I have one out of Baltimore on a different company August 30 2020. Will be interesting t o see if it goes ahead. 

[HappyInVan]

Guys,

 

We have to be realistic. Cruising won't resume until WHO rescinds the pandemic alert. As long as the alert is in place, we have no medical insurance for the disease.

 

In fact, we have no insurance coverage until the government drops the alert status (for Canada) to a Level 2 "Practise special precautions".

 

https://travel.gc.ca/travelling/health-safety/travel-health-notices

 

China will be resuming domestic tourism in a few weeks.  Ditto for South Korea. But, still a long way to go for international cruising.

 

 

[rattanchair]

Dear bf,   I am "cruising again",

 

   In order to ameliorate my personal situation having taken the FCC on two fully paid and cancelled cruises and one just deposited for July 2020, and refunded deposit. I took ' to heart ' a reviewers sour cruise review I read here on CC last year of a cruise he took somewhere. He stated ,bluntly , that a week in his garage would have been better than his week cruise. So I moved our cars out of the garage (I have more 'living space' than most ships' suites); ordered 2 deck lounge chairs with 4" cushions (2" is standard for ships, delivered to my front door by Walmart); nice plush beach towels (minus ship's logo, unless you managed to not 'forget' to not pack the ship's); my decorative "Boca' towel clips to hold down said plush beach towels. I set up 2 box fans to provide my 'ocean breezes', have a TV set up ( though have not found the time to watch anything being 'hooked' to the CC message boards waiting for the CLIA to come up with "robust" protocols to satisfy the CDC to rescind the 100 day No-Sail-Order). And besides there is really no time considering my morning and after lunch naps in my deck lounger.

   I have this huge double door refrigerator (never threw out the old one) plugged in , filled with my favorite libations and a dozen 'big' cans of pringles (not those 10 chip ones you all complain are never refilled in your cabin). DW provides me with a lunch and dinner menu ('verbal  menus' so as to cut down on virus transfer). And when it is balcony time, which is all day, I simply press a button from my lounger and the garage double door automatically goes up. I have this great view of the sea that I fondly remember from all my past voyages (No, I do not live on the water, I just envision it and  'voila' it appears).

  I choose to live "La vida loca". 'Attitude' is the only thing in life we get to choose.